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Kiev Is Burning


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1 minute ago, Josh said:

That's kind splitting hairs. Most any tactical use would probably blow up to be strategic, even if one truly believes in 'tactical' vs 'strategic' nuclear weapons. IMO, that's a gray area at best.

 

nothing "tactical" about nukes.. once you start using them, you use what you have...

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2 minutes ago, R011 said:

As has been pointed out, the Ukrainians likely have a very good idea of how well or poorly things are going in their own country.

I´m affraid I didn´t understand. Which Ukrainians? The Army? of course. People posting on the web? Maybe, but they have an agenda. Baghdad Bob also likely had a very good idea of how things were going bach then.

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24 minutes ago, Josh said:

It is hard to imagine that Russia hasn't lost a thousand armored vehicles of all types right now. I can't read that any other way than a big loss in capability; if that happened to the US that's how I'd label that. Moreover the Russian replacement rate for anything is generally single digits, be it Armatas or bombers or Su-57s. Yeah, I think this war knocks them back physically in terms of people and systems, and on top of physical losses, their actual capability is demonstrably mediocre. I'm not sure how you can spin this such that it isn't a massive loss in capability and blow to how they organize and fight.

 

If you're Russia, you have no one planning on invading you and you're in the process of liquidating what you see as your biggest active security threat on your border. You can take the losses because you think you're going to have plenty of time to recoup them, even at the massively reduced rate as compared to before. 

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5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:
5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im reminded of what was said about WW1 Germany, shackled to the corpse of Austro Hungary. I think  China is far too smart to make that same mistake.

 

It was better for Germany in 1914 to have a weak ally than no ally at all, and China today is in the same position. 

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1 minute ago, FlyingCanOpener said:

 

If you're Russia, you have no one planning on invading you and you're in the process of liquidating what you see as your biggest active security threat on your border. You can take the losses because you think you're going to have plenty of time to recoup them, even at the massively reduced rate as compared to before. 

yes, and they just alienated the largest trade partner they have, they unified NATO and gave it purpose, and cause Germans to do 180 and start pumping money into their military... YEAH, WELL DONE!

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9 minutes ago, bojan said:

And that. Flat out inventing things, from both sides w/o any care for a real truth in order to get views.

Back then we had excellent TV reports (HRT). It was called "Slikom na sliku",  they showed news from various sides and channels so one could easily see for themselves who is lying and how

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8 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

That is as questionable as the New York Times lying about Luftwaffe losses in the Battle of Britain to keep Britain in the war. It really doesn't make any sense.

Instead, I'm reading what the Ukrainians are posting. They are in a position to know.

You don´t need to lie, only report based on information from one side of the fence.

If USA officials are interested in doing as much damage to Russia as possible it does all the sense in the world. Bleeding the bear dry with sanctions and ukrainians lives based on a clear and easy to sell motive, an illegal invasion, is just a hawks dream. The people in ukraine may disagree of course.

As I said, Baghdad Bob was in a position to know also...

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4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Situation on Donbass front as by yesterday evening. By the way overnight pro-Ukrainians attempted to attack Gorlovka (probably they believed that DNR troops are all relocated to Mariupol) with some initiall success (as far as i understand, they took one poisition by surprise, 2KIA from DNR + some POWs) bit then were pushed back with losses (significant for thbe type of war that lasted in this trenches for 8 years, but small compared to what is going on in oter regions - for example yesterday's cruise missile strike on police/SBU compound reportedly wiped out entire police special forces group)

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My impression is that the Donbass forces are fighting far better than expected.  Can you comment?

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The story of “Great battle for Snake island” is becoming even more ridiculous: Ukrainian officials in Odessa have improvised the team of two clerics and doctor (anesthesiologist for some reason) to recover the corpses of 13 heroes already awarded Hero of Ukraine. Russian Navy allowed them to the island – but they have not found no bodies neither destruction. Then they were taken to Sevastopol where all 82 defenders of the island are alive and well in captivity,,,,

Украинская "похоронная бригада" в шоке: пограничники со Змеиного живы - Россия 24 - YouTube

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2 hours ago, bojan said:

Most know how fucked up are even peacetime long range moves (where you don't have tight operational schedule) that w/o further evidence are not ready to make any comment.

There is a speculation that troops are under orders to abandon even vehicles with relatively minor issues in order to keep timeline, but this can not be confirmed.

IMO the problem is less that some are breaking down, and more that there is no infantry securing the gains and protecting the rear. Given that Russia is on the offensive, even vehicles knocked out on the front should mostly be behind the front at any given time and so be easily secured.

The SOP here should be take ground with local over-match but then use relatively small forces to 'dig in' and hold territory while the main force keeps attacking elsewhere. So far I am yet to see any evidence of Russian prepared position defending against counterattacks and the rule instead seems to be if you are not going forwards to just sit in a traffic jam or mill about in some town.

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Just now, Roman Alymov said:

The story of “Great battle for Snake island” is becoming even more ridiculous: Ukrainian officials in Odessa have improvised the team of two clerics and doctor (anesthesiologist for some reason) to recover the corpses of 13 heroes already awarded Hero of Ukraine. Russian Navy allowed them to the island – but they have not found no bodies neither destruction. Then they were taken to Sevastopol where all 82 defenders of the island are alive and well in captivity,,,,

Украинская "похоронная бригада" в шоке: пограничники со Змеиного живы - Россия 24 - YouTube

 you still dont get it, do you... it DOESNT MATTER THAT THEY SURVIVED.... ITS WHAT THEY SAID DURING THAT RADIO MESSAGE...

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3 hours ago, kokovi said:

What I still do not get is why it is so damn important for Russia to conquer Ukraine? They could just have placed one or two combined arms armies plus enough air assets near the separatist areas to prevent any Ukrainian reconquista ideas. I think the west did not plan on any kind of regime change in Russia - it is too big and has nukes. So why is Ukraine such a threat? Is it really just about ideology?

My puzzlement is why NATO would insist on the right to expand to a place where it obviously  has no intention of fighting. 

Edited by glenn239
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