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Kiev Is Burning


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22 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You are assuming it's operational because they tell you it is. They said Su57 was operational too, and that appears to be an outright lie.

The couple SU-57's, I think I've read, or seen it suggested, they're using for program testing as they spool up.   I've seen no indication the few available would play any important part in an offensive.  The S-500 I read is only partly of the full-up system, with the complete version operational around 2025.  I'm assuming the part that is operational now is the shooty down satellites part - and exhibit A would be that junk in orbit where a defunct Russian satellite used to be.  So, the SU-57's are functionally irrelevant while the S-500 is a vital anti-satellite component.

An assumption I question seems to be that Russian equipment stored in compounds is indicative that an attack is quite some time off, that the Uks will have a warning as this material starts to move out to their concentration zones.  I would caution that this might not be the case, that the Russians might consider a massive surprise attack with the equipment in the compounds so as to achieve maximum obliteration of the Ukrainian command and control infastructure, which will have been lulled into a false sense of security by all those tanks obediently in their parking lots.  Then, the deployment of the equipment to the jump-off points under SAM cover.

 

Edited by glenn239
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Yes, you keep asserting it was S500 that shot the satellite down. It's pretty clear that it was an entirely different system.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-235_anti-ballistic_missile_systemA

The Soviets envisaged an attack from the march, right of barracks. It may be the only I fixation received will be strike aircraft and long range missile bombardment.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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I've no doubt the Russians are capable of engaging satellites at this point. Which particular weapon system happens to be operational or responsible for the most recent test doesn't seem especially germane. But I have hard time believing Russia will unilaterally engage '32 NATO satellites' pre-emptively. Because if NATO wasn't involved in the Ukraine before that act, it sure as shit will be after, starting with Russia's satellites dying the next day. Right now I don't think anyone seriously expects NATO to carry water for the Ukraine outside of sending more Javelins and wishing them luck. That clearly changes if Russia goes out of its way to provoke the US and inhibits assets used in numerous other regions.

Edited by Josh
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They already see us as involved, that's the problem. It's because of us,apparently, that Ukraine wants to join Nato. However one stacks It, we are the problem, and it seems like there will be some action to stop us getting involved further. Pretty much every action they have undertaken since 2007 has been to that end. Expect Cyber attacks, maybe even assassinations.

 

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5 hours ago, Nobu said:

I think the Russians are bluffing. If they really wanted to crush the Ukraine in one swift campaign, waiting for Trump to leave office would seem counterproductive to that end.

Is Biden is any better? Im not seeing it. Im not seeing any potential leader capable of restoring the US to the world stage in the next 10 years, if that. God knows Harris isnt up to it.

Lets call it. There is a gas shortage in Europe. Its winter. Germany is changing Chancellor,thought likely to be someone not thought competent in foreign matters. The British Prime Minister is an idiot  Peppa Pig obsessive. The French President will sell his soul to the devil to be reelected, so avoiding a war in Ukraine looks small beer. The American President, on the basis of Afghanistan, is incompetent. China is sabre rattling over Taiwan and distracting attention of America and its Pacific allies.   Belarus is distracting NATO with its on off border crisis. Added to that, Ukraine has a very serious arms procurement effort underway, which means the same operation would likely be far more costly in a few more years. And the Russian defence budget according to estimates ive seen, has been in decline, and unlikely to match the ramp up of the period 2015 to 2019.

My own view, this is probably his last opportunity to do it with as few casualties as possible. If he doesnt do it now, right now, he may as well forget about it for good, particularly dominating the Black Sea. Yes, he might well be bluffing, you are perfectly correct. The above and a nagging itch tells me he probably isnt. But im perfectly willing to risk Roman and Glenns ridicule to say it.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

That is non new

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Is this is Southern Military District thing?

As far as overhead protection for the commander, they had this 60 years ago on Centurion. OTOH, an overhead cover for the entire turret, Ive never seen that before. Its also interesting to see they have spare reactive armour sets laid out of the engine deck, presumably to try and stop any top attack rounds going there. 

 

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Some good points Stuart, it feels like 1914 again. All talk and bluster then when it happens everyone will wonder how we got there. 

Part of the problem is I don't think the Biden administration (the de facto leader, even with the recent stumbles) is on top of this. They are releasing statements of Ukrainian support, and encouraging others to do so, but just hoping that will be enough without considering the consequences. 

If the Russians go, I think it will after some created, 5th column,  provocation within Ukraine to justify a penetration. Then either the real shooting starts with multiple countries rendering increasing assistance to the Ukrainians; or more likely, World leaders stop and take a lunch break and follow up with sanctions on Russia. A few speeches, not too many, that might lead to something.

What worries me is both sides might be talking themselves into their respective corners and won't be able to back down or come to an agreement before things cascade.

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1 minute ago, ex2cav said:

Some good points Stuart, it feels like 1914 again. All talk and bluster then when it happens everyone will wonder how we got there. 

Part of the problem is I don't think the Biden administration (the de facto leader, even with the recent stumbles) is on top of this. They are releasing statements of Ukrainian support, and encouraging others to do so, but just hoping that will be enough without considering the consequences. 

If the Russians go, I think it will after some created, 5th column,  provocation within Ukraine to justify a penetration. Then either the real shooting starts with multiple countries rendering increasing assistance to the Ukrainians; or more likely, World leaders stop and take a lunch break and follow up with sanctions on Russia. A few speeches, not too many, that might lead to something.

What worries me is both sides might be talking themselves into their respective corners and won't be able to back down or come to an agreement before things cascade.

Im sure I actually read the other day somewhere, he is STILL angling for another summit with Putin. After the fantastic success of the last one, you actually wonder what he hopes to achieve. its sure as hell not scaring him into a corner. And to talk sense into someone, as Mutti tried multiple times, you actually have to have someone capable of conventional reason.

I dont think 1914 is it. Its far more 1938. Im less scared of us backing into a corner, because I do honestly think Eastern Europe is worth fighting for, and we should have done so as long ago as 2008. What really terrifies me is the complete lack of balls of our political leaders, and their inherent belief that selling people out for their own short term benefit is an intelligent policy. We know where it leads.

5baf82d5f3228-e1538230735554-768x473.jpg

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Yes, I believe so. I think he would be perfectly happy to get all the things he wants (Crimea, strip of land to Crimea, hegenomy over Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia via a Yalta agreement (heck, he can now actually have it at Yalta). Equally I think he is perfectly willing to go and take the things he wants if he doesnt get it for free. Lets face it, nothing he hasnt done already, in Georgia or Ukraine. Its not like we have been butch about it.

To my mind, it basically comes down to whether our leaders are willing to sell Ukraine out, or stand by it. I notice more than a few editorials online lately telling Biden to do the Munich thing on Ukraine before its too late. They havent extended the thinking, what happens to America's standing, not least over Taiwan and the South China sea, if they do.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/ukraine-is-seeking-nato-status-biden-should-be-clear-no

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I question the efficacy of those overhead slats vs Javelin. The final dive for Javelin isn't steep enough to reliably strike the slats. They may be more helpful if they extended somewhat forward over the front turret.

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TBH, im less interested whether it would work (  I personally share you skepticism, for what thats worth) than that they are actually fitting these to T72BV's at all. These must be due to go into the shop for the T72B3 upgrade at some point, right? So why waste time, money and effort rigging something up like this, unless you expect it to be needed in the near future?

 

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5 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

TBH, im less interested whether it would work (  I personally share you skepticism, for what thats worth) than that they are actually fitting these to T72BV's at all. These must be due to go into the shop for the T72B3 upgrade at some point, right? So why waste time, money and effort rigging something up like this, unless you expect it to be needed in the near future?

 

I am not so sure that is is a sign of haste. It is a relatively cheap addition which can be easily removed if there is some superior solution available at some point, and so 'lets make a hundred and fit them' seems to make sense just under the background threat level.

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Interesting opinion piece on War on the Rocks in which the author argues that a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic countries, Poland or Ukraine beyond its wide gauge railroad network is seriously constrained in its speed of advance and thus reach by the limited road mobile logistic assets of the Russian army.

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11 hours ago, Nobu said:

I think the Russians are bluffing. If they really wanted to crush the Ukraine in one swift campaign, waiting for Trump to leave office would seem counterproductive to that end.

Yes, and you thought the Chinese were bluffing about Hong Kong too.  

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As far as the Baltic states,he isnt going to do that AND Ukraine. They dont have enough forces. I think it useful enough to leave a couple of brigades covering the Baltic states, maybe an airborne division, and keep rattling the cage. Less likely NATO would send anything to Ukraine, if they are worried about directly fighting over NATO states.

That is an interesting article, but I just thought of something pertinent. They dont have enough sustainment units. Well think how they did things in the cold war. The idea was to drive each division hard till it ran of equipment and supplies  , and then put in the second echeleon. What if they use 1st GTA with its divisions to break in, and use the Brigades,which are designed to run fairly independently, through the breakthrough? Im not saying they WILL do that, but I do think it worth remembering they managed a fairly rapid advance in 2008, over far worse terrain than Ukraine, and with far worse equipment.

They dont fight like us. There is a good case for saying, at least as far as a fairly short land grab (over quite a long line the Ukrainians are envisaging) that might be enough. Dont forget, its only 83 miles from the Belarus border to Kiev, as long as they dont mind going via Pripyat. Even from the Russian border, thats only 174 miles. Assuming a rate of advance of 35 miles an hour (assuming very limited opposition), thats a 5 hour drive away.

 

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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3 hours ago, ex2cav said:

Some good points Stuart, it feels like 1914 again. All talk and bluster then when it happens everyone will wonder how we got there. 

If Austria-Hungary had nuclear weapons in 1914, my guess would be that there very well might have been a 3rd Balkans War, but no world war.

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