Gavin-Phillips Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 There were some youtube videos that mentioned particular units being on the move (mostly by rail) but the following video is a bit of an odd mix really, there's some scenes in Syria there and alot of infantry training with the silver "blank adapters" on their AK's. Also what looks like some DShK's in there as well which I'm really surprised to see? I thought they would have been replaced decades ago? War begins, Russia deploys 100,000 troops and ballistic missiles to Ukraine's border Something else interesting is the number of T-64's that footage is showing. Is someone just splicing footage from all over the place and putting it together? Genuine footage or not, its a serious situation though. 😕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Yeah, I wouldnt take that too seriously. Usually when they use a robot voice you know they have cobbled together a lot of old footage to get views. There are some exceptions, but not that many from what ive seen on youtube. Well.. Im a fencesitter. Many of the claims about 1st GTA deploying seem to be bogus, but its clearly a bit disconcerting,particularly if you are Ukrainian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin-Phillips Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Yeah, I wouldnt take that too seriously. Usually when they use a robot voice you know they have cobbled together a lot of old footage to get views. There are some exceptions, but not that many from what ive seen on youtube. Well.. Im a fencesitter. Many of the claims about 1st GTA deploying seem to be bogus, but its clearly a bit disconcerting,particularly if you are Ukrainian. I've noticed there are ever increasing numbers of videos with that same Mr Robot voice; which would generally be alright but I'm not a fan of the voice really, if narration isn't worth it as far as information goes, I'd be happier with the sound of tank engines (especially the T-64's!) and helicopters (Mi-24 has to be the best candidate for that). Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and things will not escalate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 On 4/9/2021 at 6:23 PM, JasonJ said: This ideal would be behind the argument that the Ukraine is Russia's neighborhood, not the EU's, UK's, or US's. Can’t agree with you on this: Ukraine* is not “Russia's neighborhood” – it is part of Russia, artificially separated and privatized during USSR implosion by local Communist Party leadership who became oligarchs and brought up long-forgotten local nationalism to justify this separation. Reintegration of Ukraine must be mainland Russia’s strategic aim for coming decades (if not centuries – last time it took hundreds of years). *Must note here that borders of Soviet Ukraine (inherited by “Independent Ukraine”) are in its turn artificial and result of two world wars, so some of the territories that are now “Ukraine” are populated with people who got nothing to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Tan Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Russia will not preempt the Ukrainian offensive. Quite the contrary, it has already embedded press inside Donbass to show the Ukranian onslaught. This will create the condition for intervention and because the Ukrainians will be allowed to overplay their hand, the intervention will be punitive. The Ukrainians know this but they will press on. The gamble is to be beaten so bad that NATO has to intervene. Itis just an insane strategy that might just work. But not in the way they imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 First sign of airborne units in Crimea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 (edited) On 4/10/2021 at 5:24 PM, Simon Tan said: Errrr Ukrainian buildup for renewed offensive is months long now. Russia can hardly stand by while Slavs are threatened with liquidation by Banderistas. Who are in obvious breach of the Minsk Agreement that put an end to the previous ass whooping. This time the Rus are simply preventing any mistaken belief by Kyiv that there will be no consequence for their military action against Donbass. Zelensky is no different from the man he mocked. It is not correct - “Banderistas” are not only mostly Slavic from ethnicity point of view, but are often Slavic nationalists and White supremacists . For example, in video below Ukrainian nationalists who have beaten Chelsea football fan who was misfortunate not to be white, are traced to Azov regiment and to acting as hired tugs by SBU to travel around Ukraine to suppress political opposition. With English subtitles At the same time, current President of Ukraine is Russian-speaking Jew, de-facto master of Ukraine Minister of Interior Avakov is Armenian refugee from Azerbaijan and so on…. This conflict is not along ethnic lines – it is post-Soviet civil war between political powers Edited April 11, 2021 by Roman Alymov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 https://news.sky.com/story/russia-inside-the-kremlins-military-build-up-along-the-ukraine-border-12272418 ....president Zelensky knows re-taking the country's eastern Donbas region, parts of which are held by separatists, is wishful thinking as is any large-scale fight with his powerful neighbour to the East. It is of course hard to know what Russia is playing at but they seem to be eyeing the long game. Coercive diplomacy to extract concessions in negotiations on Donbas, a powerful display of military muscle for the new US administration to take note of while the de facto annexation of the separatist regions of Ukraine chugs along apace According to Russian state news agency Ria Novosti, 420,000 people in the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics have already received Russian passports. Russia is aiming for one million by parliamentary elections this September. "It's unifying their legislation with the Russian one, it's providing them with the Russian vaccine, it's providing them with passports. It doesn't mean Russia wants to annex them," said Maxim Samorukov from the Moscow Carnegie Institute. "At least in the near future," he added. It also provides quite the justification for full-scale intervention should Russia's calculus change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 38 minutes ago, Simon Tan said: The Ukrainians know this but they will press on. The gamble is to be beaten so bad that NATO has to intervene. Itis just an insane strategy that might just work. But not in the way they imagine. No need for such complex plan, while everything is way more simple: decision makers in Kiev know that in case of trouble they will be given comfortable save haven somewhere (probably, Canada) where they will spend the rest of their lives on Western taxpayers payroll pretending to be Ukraine Government and Parliament in exile For example, one of Ukraine Parliament members was caught on camera texting “time to get out of the country” after report by Ukr Army chief about military situation https://youtu.be/XBWBsFjCThw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 President Zelensky recent visit to frontline Note inscription above shelter door behind him, For those who can’t read Russian – it reads “Vietnam”. Small detail, but speaks volumes about how Ukrainian Army feel (and behave) on occupied territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin-Phillips Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said: First sign of airborne units in Crimea. I was looking at the vehicles on the railcars. Its certainly been shown that BMD's and 2S9 Nona-S have been deployed already. It was the BTR-80 variant on that particular train which interested me the most. Looks like a Infauna K1Sh1 UNSh-12 electronic warfare vehicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Tan Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 I predict Poland will move to protect western Ukraine in the event of a wider conflict over Donbass. They will move in as NATO and eventually reintegrate former Polish territory annexed by the Soviet Union. If you are Polish and not planning this, you are why there are Polish jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Simon Tan said: I predict Poland will move to protect western Ukraine in the event of a wider conflict over Donbass. They will move in as NATO and eventually reintegrate former Polish territory annexed by the Soviet Union. If you are Polish and not planning this, you are why there are Polish jokes. If they are aiming for conquering Belarus, there will be Polish jokes: "You know, the PRC wants to conquer Taiwan because of the Taiwanese microelectronics industry, they are world leaders" "That's nothing, Poland wants to conquer Belarus" "Why?" "Because Wargaming, publisher of World of Tanks is based in Minsk, you numbnuts!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Which would be really dumb, seeing as there is the 'Lublin Triangle' agreement, there is a Lithuanian Polish Ukrainian Brigade, and Poland would view itself in as much potential danger of Russian aggression over the Suwalki gap. Probably erroneously, but if you are Polish, not likely something you are going to take chances over. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lublin_Triangle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian_Brigade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Gavin-Phillips said: I was looking at the vehicles on the railcars. Its certainly been shown that BMD's and 2S9 Nona-S have been deployed already. It was the BTR-80 variant on that particular train which interested me the most. Looks like a Infauna K1Sh1 UNSh-12 electronic warfare vehicle. Its the first ones I've seen pictures of. Have they mentioned any units? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin-Phillips Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Its the first ones I've seen pictures of. Have they mentioned any units? Just this video that I've seen seems to mention particular units. Russian units - air assault division Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 That video shows the ups and downs of using YouTube for News. It shows American Helicopters, and then reference CIT, whom seem to actually have a fairly good rep. It would make sense if it was the 76th if they have non airdroppable kit like a BTR80 based vehicle, because they are officially an airmobile formation. The even have a T72 Battalion. LONG way round to move a division from Pskov to Crimea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Tan Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians in Lviv will be very happy to become instant Europeans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-is-eyeing-up-much-bigger-prize-than-donbas-conquest-in-ukraine-says-us-general/ar-BB1fxWrP?ocid=uxbndlbing However, a top US General has argued that Russia's troop buildup on Ukraine's eastern borders is a distraction and that the Kremlin is preparing for a different attack. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said in an interview with Espresso TV that Mr Putin has his eyes set on capturing the Black Sea Coast in the south. The former commander of the United States Army Europe explained: "The Kremlin is interested in establishing full control over the Black Sea coast, including Mariupol, Odessa and Berdyansk. "All this movement of Russian forces is most likely a diversionary manoeuvre to strike and capture the water canal connecting Crimea to the Dnieper River. "And then, it will become a springboard for further capture of the Black Sea coast." He added that Moscow did not need to make a decisive move in the Donbas at present and preferred to use the simmering conflict as a means to further undermine Kiev. "The Russians do not need a decisive attack on the Donbas now," he said. "The Donbas is needed to continue destabilization in the region and to inhibit Ukraine's integration with the West. Which is interesting, but I dont think they would need quite the force they have assembled to go in that direction, unless they fancy trying to annex Georgia. I still come down to the possiblity they are going for Belarus, and the forces in Crimea are a fake out. Particularly when the following mean it could be financially worth their while. https://www.inform.kz/en/belarus-discovers-8-new-oil-deposits-over-past-five-years_a3774363 The really interesting thing will be if 1st GTA deploys in entirety. After all, is Putin really going to feel safe without any regular troops in Moscow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ssnake Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Diversions work best if they are not easily identifiable as a diversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 15 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: President Zelensky recent visit to frontline Note inscription above shelter door behind him, For those who can’t read Russian – it reads “Vietnam”. Small detail, but speaks volumes about how Ukrainian Army feel (and behave) on occupied territory How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Tan Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Mariupol and Odessa would be nice under Crimean Oblast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 A far off country of which we know little, eh Simon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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