Kiev Is Burning

[Lav]

What they want to achive is pretty clear.

And this "clearness" is based on what information sources exactly? Definitely not direct transcripts and interviews of "leaders" of that movement, because then you would be aware how different their goals are supposedly are even when people within the same town are asked. There's even more chaos when leaders of different town militias are talking. Some want Russian language, some want independence, some want federalism, some want to join Russia, some want control over taxes, some want Russian army to move to help them, some want Russian army to stay where it is...

 

Of course, if my opinion was based solely on American or Ukrainian media, I too would be fairly certain that the protest movement in Eastern Ukraine is unified and centralised. Alas, it is simply not the case.

 

I have no doubt there are Russian operatives in Eastern Ukraine. And I doubt Kerry would make such a definiative statement without somthing backing it up.

He has already made many definitive statements without presenting any evidence. What's one more?

 

And there are definitely Russian operatives in Eastern Ukraine. As well as American, German, Hungarian, Turkish and probably even Chinese. There's a difference, however, between presence of operatives and the entire thing being orchestrated by Moscow.

[glenn239]

 

I have no doubt there are Russian operatives in Eastern Ukraine. And I doubt Kerry would make such a definiative statement without somthing backing it up.

 

 

 

Check - the US doesn't make statements like that unless they have the goods.

[rmgill]

We are talking about Kerry you know….

[DKTanker]

If Kerry has evidence, I want to see it.

I'll bet Putin has already queried Snowden about how Kerry could have that evidence.

[savantu]

 

What they want to achive is pretty clear.

And this "clearness" is based on what information sources exactly? Definitely not direct transcripts and interviews of "leaders" of that movement, because then you would be aware how different their goals are supposedly are even when people within the same town are asked. There's even more chaos when leaders of different town militias are talking. Some want Russian language, some want independence, some want federalism, some want to join Russia, some want control over taxes, some want Russian army to move to help them, some want Russian army to stay where it is...

 

Of course, if my opinion was based solely on American or Ukrainian media, I too would be fairly certain that the protest movement in Eastern Ukraine is unified and centralised. Alas, it is simply not the case.

 

I have no doubt there are Russian operatives in Eastern Ukraine. And I doubt Kerry would make such a definiative statement without somthing backing it up.

He has already made many definitive statements without presenting any evidence. What's one more?

 

And there are definitely Russian operatives in Eastern Ukraine. As well as American, German, Hungarian, Turkish and probably even Chinese. There's a difference, however, between presence of operatives and the entire thing being orchestrated by Moscow.

 

Are you serious ?

 

For any rational individual with half a brain, Moscow's visible/invisible hand is there. Occam's razor is screaming.

 

It's funny how the pro-Moscow crowd is taking Putin's claims ad literam and deconstructing them to show us how dumb we are, but they fail to see his the contradiction between his initial claims/later claims and development on the ground. It's delusional folks, it's all in your head. In reality, Moscow is stirring up the situation in Eastern Ukraine but they've reached an impasse as the bulk of the population ( unlike Crimea ) doesn't support the separatists.

 

 

Even in Russia, people aren't as brainwashed as we see here :

 

 

 

KIRILL KLEIMENOV: You know, the Crimean issue has taken on a new dimension we didn’t expect. I’ll read out just one of many similar messages. It arrived from Sergei Bibartsev, a pensioner who lives in Krasnoyarsk Region: “At a teacher’s meeting today my wife was told – and she is a teacher at Secondary School No 71 in the village of Kedrovy – that teachers’ salaries will be cut by 20 percent as of May because of Crimea’s reunification with the Russian Federation.”

VLADIMIR PUTIN: Crooks!

KIRILL KLEIMENOV: “Is this true or not? And why by 20 percent?” Teachers, as everyone knows, are under the jurisdiction of the local authorities. Perhaps…

VLADIMIR PUTIN: No. Schools are run at the municipal level, and they are supported by the regions. This is, of course, a false statement that has nothing to do with reality.

KIRILL KLEIMENOV: We have received numerous similar messages from various regions.

VLADIMIR PUTIN: Well, I want people to hear me and we will later look at all of the incoming information and sort it all out. As I’ve already said, we have no need to reduce any of our social programmes and guarantees. I’d like to repeat this with full responsibility and warrant that not a single social programme adopted by Russia and funded out of the Russian budget will be reduced. All of the resources are available. Everything we need for the people of Crimea will come from the Government’s reserve funds and will not affect any of our social programmes.

KIRILL KLEIMENOV: Where should people go to complain if they get such…

VLADIMIR PUTIN: Well, they have complained now and we’ll try to react.

KIRILL KLEIMENOV: Good. Pensioners are similarly worried, saying: “We’ve been promised that pensions would increase by 3 percent as of April, but they were increased by just 1.7 percent. We think that this is connected with Crimea,” Irina Shalygina wrote from the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area.

VLADIMIR PUTIN: I repeat that this is not in any way connected with Crimea or Sevastopol. It is linked with inflation, the level of inflation and the level of Pension Fund revenues. Under the laws of the Russian Federation, pensions are adjusted for inflation twice a year – in February and in April. I don’t remember that the Government publicly and officially announced that pensions would go up by 3 percent in April.

Opinions were divided in the Government on that score. They debated the issue and in the end, they acted in line with the law.

Under the law, adjusting pensions for inflation is implemented in accordance with accrued inflation and the Pension Fund revenues. In February, pensions were adjusted by 6.5 percent and in April by 1.7 percent. Of course, this is a modest increase, but it is still better than a cut. That is number one.

Number two. This is clearly not sufficient, but if we add 6.5 percent and 1.7 percent, we get 8.2 percent, don’t we? That is still higher than inflation this year. The target is 6 percent, although it will probably be 6.5 percent. However, it is not yet 8.2 percent. This is what the Government should keep an eye on.

In general, we should continue thinking and moving to raise the incomes of our pensioners. This is obvious.

MARIA SITTEL: More from anxious pensioners. “If the West refuses to purchase gas from Russia, how will that affect people’s well-being, especially that of pensioners?” – Lyudmila Budarina, Tambov Region.

VLADIMIR PUTIN: I have to say that oil and gas revenues make up a large part of the Russian budget revenue. This is a serious component for us in addressing economic development, budget funding for our development programmes and, of course, and meeting of our social commitments to our citizens.

I’ll tell you what. I am not sure that I’ll get the figures right, but, if my memory serves me correctly, the bulk of oil and gas revenue comes not from gas but from oil. In terms of the dollar equivalent, our oil revenues last year amounted to $191-194 billion and gas revenues to about $28 billion. See the difference? 191 from oil and 28 from gas.

Oil is sold on world markets. Is there any way to do us harm? One may try. But what would be the result for those who would attempt to do it? First of all, how would this be done? Of all the countries in the world, only Saudi Arabia has the real potential to increase production and thus bring down world prices. Saudi Arabia’s budget assumes a price of $85-$90 per thousand cubic metres.

KIRILL KLEYMENOV: President Obama has already visited them.

VLADIMIR PUTIN: I’m sorry, I meant oil, not gas. The budget assumes a price of $85-$90 per barrel, and our budget, I think, $90. So, if one goes below $85, Saudi Arabia will be on the losing end and have problems. For us a drop from $90 to $85 is not critical. That is first.

Second, we are on very good terms with Saudi Arabia. We may, for example, differ in terms of our views on Syria, but we practically have identical positions on the development of the situation in Egypt. There are many other things where we see eye-to-eye.

I have great respect for the custodian of the two Muslim shrines, the King of Saudi Arabia. He is a very clever and balanced man. I don’t think that our Saudi friends would make any abrupt changes to harm themselves and the Russian economy.

Furthermore, they are members of OPEC, where we have many supporters. It is not that they have sympathy for us, but that they have their own economic interests and sharply reducing production – which can only be done in a manner agreed upon within OPEC – is a fairly complicated business.

Finally, in the United States, which is developing shale gas and shale oil production, production costs are very high. These are expensive projects. If world prices tumble, these projects may turn out to be unprofitable, loss-making and the nascent industry may simply die.

And one last point. Oil is priced and traded in the world in dollars. If prices fall, demand for dollars will plummet and the dollar will start losing its significance as a world currency. There are very many factors involved. The wish to bite us is there, but the opportunities are limited. That said, some damage can be caused.

Now about gas. We sell gas by pipeline (most of our sales are by pipeline) mainly to the European countries that depend on Russian supplies to cover about 30-35, 34 percent of their needs. Can they stop buying Russian gas altogether? I don’t think that this is possible.

Some of our neighbours, very good neighbours with which we have very sound relations, such as, for example, Finland…Finland gets 90 percent of its gas from Russia. Some countries that used to be called People’s Democracies in Eastern Europe depend on Russian gas if not for 90 percent, then for 60, 50 or 70 percent of their needs.

Can supplies be stopped altogether? I think that this is totally unrealistic. But one can do this at one’s own cost, by hurting oneself. However, I cannot imagine such a situation. Therefore, of course, everyone is keen on diversifying their sources of supplies. Europe is talking about greater independence from Russia as a supplier, and similarly we are beginning to talk and act to become less dependent on our consumers.

However, so far, there is a measure of balance between consumers and suppliers. The only problem is transit countries. And the most dangerous part, of course, is transit via Ukraine with which we have tremendous difficulties in agreeing on energy problems. But I hope that we will be able to bring things back to normal, considering the contracts that have been signed and are functioning.

I wonder what the situation is for Russians who have taken loans in both local and especially in foreign currency.

Edited April 29, 2014 by savantu

[Roman Alymov]

 

I'll bet Putin has already queried Snowden about how Kerry could have that evidence.

 

There is nothing to do with Snowden: since it is plain cellular (as mentioned above, do not know what it is in fact, if is) - there is no difficulty for SBU (Ukrainian FSB) to intercept it, because all cellular telephone operators in both Russia and Ukraibe are obligated to have built-in talk interception system, so-cold SORM (it is Russian abbreviation). The difference from USA system is that it is of a much less scale and do not allow to store everything forever, but only some amount. Anyway, the only thing US have to do to get any recent telephone call record inside Ukraine is to call Ukrainian officials and order them record of one (seems like Kiev government is in no position to resist such demand).

Another question is that if it is real "agent-to-agent" professional talk -record would provide no proof or even information. And even amateur one are of little use (like one i have translated for you few days ago)

[crazyinsane105]

Russia is threatening the US with the astronaut access to the ISS. Smart idea, the best way to mobilize funding for a new generation of spaceships.

 

Saw a documentary about this while down in the Kennedy Space Center. Russian help in the ISS is crucial if not irreplaceable..them not cooperating can put a halt to most space related activities. It's more than just spaceships...they help build new sections of the ISS.

[Roman Alymov]

Are you serious ?

 

For any rational individual with half a brain, Moscow's visible/invisible hand is there.

How many Moscow politicians have visited Ukraine recently?

 

 

 

 

etc.

 

I wonder what the situation is for Russians who have taken loans in both local and especially in foreign currency.

 

As it is always in any country - person with loans is person with troubles. More loans - more troubles. But government is trying to limit credit load and avoid troubles by implementing more strict and detailed regulations limiting banks activity in handing out too much loans at too expensive price.

[rmgill]

 

Russia is threatening the US with the astronaut access to the ISS. Smart idea, the best way to mobilize funding for a new generation of spaceships.

 

Saw a documentary about this while down in the Kennedy Space Center. Russian help in the ISS is crucial if not irreplaceable..them not cooperating can put a halt to most space related activities. It's more than just spaceships...they help build new sections of the ISS.

 

 

We never should have become so dependent upon Russian Lift to get basic things done on the station.

[DKTanker]

We never should have become so dependent upon Russian Lift to get basic things done on the station.

Ever since Pyotr Alexeyevich, Peter the Great, Russians have been trying to emulate the west without becoming part of the west and in large part the west have been willing enablers without ever accepting there was pretense.

[Roman Alymov]

We never should have become so dependent upon Russian Lift to get basic things done on the station.

 

 

It is a question of taxpayers will to support more expensive space program without cheap Russian (actually Soviet) components. And Russia was totally dependent state.

 

 

[urbanoid]

Taxpayers are actually 'willing' to support a lot more expensive programs, so it shouldn't be an issue.

[Roman Alymov]

Ever since Pyotr Alexeyevich, Peter the Great, Russians have been trying to emulate the west without becoming part of the west and in large part the west have been willing enablers without ever accepting there was pretense.

 

You are over simplifying complicated process: in fact Russians were accepting both Western and Eastern "best practices" for centuries, to survive pressure from both sides. The result was often awkward but still effective. And Peter 1 was not one who started the process of adopting "western standards" , but one who continued process started long before him.

[Roman Alymov]

Taxpayers are actually 'willing' to support a lot more expensive programs, so it shouldn't be an issue.

Well I am not US taxpayer so it is not up to me.

[rmgill]

NASaa funding gets in the way of vote buying.

[JasonJ]

 

Russia is threatening the US with the astronaut access to the ISS. Smart idea, the best way to mobilize funding for a new generation of spaceships.

 

Saw a documentary about this while down in the Kennedy Space Center. Russian help in the ISS is crucial if not irreplaceable..them not cooperating can put a halt to most space related activities. It's more than just spaceships...they help build new sections of the ISS.

 

 

The plutonium in the Curiosity rover is also Russian. The US recently restarted its plutonium production.

 

Likewise the ISS can't function without US support. Should the two kill the ISS, it would be a real shame for the Japanese and the Europeans. Would make China's move to make its own space station rather then tagging along the ISS appear as an even smarter move, courtesy of the US blocking China to the ISS program.

Edited April 30, 2014 by JasonJ

[Lav]

Are you serious ?

Obviously I am.

 

For any rational individual with half a brain, Moscow's visible/invisible hand is there. Occam's razor is screaming.

First, please leave ad hominem insults, concealed or otherwise, out of your posts. They do not add to the discussion.

 

Second, what Moscow's visible hand you are talking about? There is a huge, visible and hairy American hand in the Ukrainian events - Ruslan already covered this on the previous page.

 

Third, your understanding of Occam's razor seems lacking to me. In case you don't know, Occam's razor forbids introducing new entities ("Moscow's hand secretly guiding the protest") for as long as far simpler explanations are enough ("there simply is protest").

 

Flash news for you: Ukraine was always split 50/50. It is the reason why Yuschenko and Yanukovish came head-to-head in elections of 2004, and only Yuschenko's complete failure as a president resulted in victory for Yanukovich in 2009. Howevwer Yuschenko at least had the brains not to stir the hornet's nest and take Eastern interests into account to a certain extent, so in 2004 the Eastern Ukraine, while not happy with the Maidan 1.0 results, did not protest actively.

 

So what do you think happens when you get a government "elected on the streets" by other 50% of the country which acts without any regard to the other half?

 

Ah but of course, there simply cannot be any popular resistance to such a change of government - because the change is in US favor, and so everyone must simply be happy and sing "Hallelujah".

 

It's funny how the pro-Moscow crowd is taking Putin's claims ad literam and deconstructing them to show us how dumb we are, but they fail to see his the contradiction between his initial claims/later claims and development on the ground. It's delusional folks, it's all in your head. In reality, Moscow is stirring up the situation in Eastern Ukraine but they've reached an impasse as the bulk of the population ( unlike Crimea ) doesn't support the separatists.

It's funny indeed when you are making unsubstantiated conspiracy claims about Russian involvement (with zero proof, much unlike US involvement in Maidan) and state that anyone who does not believe them is obviously delusional.

 

Even in Russia, people aren't as brainwashed as we see here:

That's because unlike in US, in Russia there are still plenty of opposition newspapers which are printing differing points of view. Now please try to find major US newspapers which are not toeing the Party Line. You will find none (except for RT, but it's Russian in origin and actively demonized right now). Hilarious, isn't it? :-)

 

P. S. Russian media report that Kerry did not make any claims about recordings intercepted by USA and that Daily Beast's publication is a mistake at best. Is it confirmed by reliable US sources?

Edited April 30, 2014 by Lav

[DKTanker]

useful idiot: A term for people perceived as propagandists for a cause whose goals they are not fully aware of, and who are used cynically by the leaders of the cause.

[savantu]

 

Are you serious ?

Obviously I am.

 

Quelle surprise.

 

For any rational individual with half a brain, Moscow's visible/invisible hand is there. Occam's razor is screaming.

First, please leave ad hominem insults, concealed or otherwise, out of your posts. They do not add to the discussion.

Second, what Moscow's visible hand you are talking about? There is a huge, visible and hairy American hand in the Ukrainian events - Ruslan already covered this on the previous page.

 

First, we worry about possible ad-homs while your comrades-in-thought are breaking limbs and cracking skulls of peaceful pro-Ukraine protesters in Eastern Ukraine. Interesting.

 

The visible hand are the huge formations deployed at Ukraine's borders and the kilometer long columns of APCs that your comrade-in-thought Roman kindly linked to.

 

The western hand is comprised of headless leaders parading themselves through Kiev without bringing anything consistent.

 

Quite a difference.

 

 

 

Third, your understanding of Occam's razor seems lacking to me. In case you don't know, Occam's razor forbids introducing new entities ("Moscow's hand secretly guiding the protest") for as long as far simpler explanations are enough ("there simply is protest").

 

My understanding of Occam's razor is spot on. We have a precedent with Crimea where Putin & co message went from "there are no russian troops/operatives in Crimea " to

 

 

"We had to take unavoidable steps so that events did not develop as they are currently developing in southeast Ukraine," Putin said in a televised call-in with the nation. "Of course our troops stood behind Crimea's self-defence forces."

 

Take the telegraph pole out of your eyes and connect the dots.

 

On top of that, they even instituted a medal for Crimea. Probably the Ukrainians ones are also already minted.

 

 

 

 

 

[savantu]

Flash news for you: Ukraine was always split 50/50. It is the reason why Yuschenko and Yanukovish came head-to-head in elections of 2004, and only Yuschenko's complete failure as a president resulted in victory for Yanukovich in 2009. Howevwer Yuschenko at least had the brains not to stir the hornet's nest and take Eastern interests into account to a certain extent, so in 2004 the Eastern Ukraine, while not happy with the Maidan 1.0 results, did not protest actively.

So what do you think happens when you get a government "elected on the streets" by other 50% of the country which acts without any regard to the other half?

Ah but of course, there simply cannot be any popular resistance to such a change of government - because the change is in US favor, and so everyone must simply be happy and sing "Hallelujah".

 

The change is in Ukrainian's favor, a concept completely missed by the Russians. Ukrainian well being not being linked to Russian well being is my oh my, sending chills on your, other comrades-in-thought and Russia's back. I for one, can only enjoy that.

 

You're making also a false connection between election support and division of the country. The 50% that supported Yanukovich, might not be in favor of joining Russia.Did it ever crossed your mind about this possibility ? Or is enough that Moscow is deciding on their part ?

 

 

 

It's funny how the pro-Moscow crowd is taking Putin's claims ad literam and deconstructing them to show us how dumb we are, but they fail to see his the contradiction between his initial claims/later claims and development on the ground. It's delusional folks, it's all in your head. In reality, Moscow is stirring up the situation in Eastern Ukraine but they've reached an impasse as the bulk of the population ( unlike Crimea ) doesn't support the separatists.

It's funny indeed when you are making unsubstantiated conspiracy claims about Russian involvement (with zero proof, much unlike US involvement in Maidan) and state that anyone who does not believe them is obviously delusional.

 

In 2-3 months Putin will come out and cheer the Russian involvement just like with Crimea. Will you post a retraction here then ?

 

Even in Russia, people aren't as brainwashed as we see here:

That's because unlike in US, in Russia there are still plenty of opposition newspapers which are printing differing points of view. Now please try to find major US newspapers which are not toeing the Party Line. You will find none (except for RT, but it's Russian in origin and actively demonized right now). Hilarious, isn't it? :-)

 

It's beyond delusional to make such claims. It can't be considered even a honest misapprehension.

[tomcat_1974]

 

We never should have become so dependent upon Russian Lift to get basic things done on the station.

 

 

It is a question of taxpayers will to support more expensive space program without cheap Russian (actually Soviet) components. And Russia was totally dependent state.

 

 

 

The only dependency so far is the actual hauling of Astronauts to IIS. Rest is in process to be replaced.

[Lav]

The change is in Ukrainian's favor, a concept completely missed by the Russians. Ukrainian well being not being linked to Russian well being is my oh my, sending chills on your, other comrades-in-thought and Russia's back. I for one, can only enjoy that.

Whether or not the change is in Ukrainian favor remains to be seen. So far the prospects don't look good.

 

You're making also a false connection between election support and division of the country. The 50% that supported Yanukovich, might not be in favor of joining Russia.Did it ever crossed your mind about this possibility ? Or is enough that Moscow is deciding on their part ?

Who is speaking about joining Russia? As far as I know, this is not a popular idea in the East. As far as I can tell they want increased autonomy, essentially some degree of safety from Kiev - since Kiev is currently controlled by Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine has no real representation there - and it doesn't look like elections will change anything. They do not want Kiev to be able to break their economic ties with Russia just to suit some hair-brained political agenda. Let's not forget that Maidan was brandishing European Association document as it's holy cow - the very document that Yanukovich refused to sign as it was a death warrant to Eastern industry. The very document that Yatsenyuk eventually only signed political part of - for the same reasons. Of course, by the moment it became clear that Yatsenyuk is not going to sign the economical part of the Association, protests in the East were already going strong, so it was a kind of a moot point.

 

In 2-3 months Putin will come out and cheer the Russian involvement just like with Crimea. Will you post a retraction here then?

Not biting. If Eastern protests result in Eastern Ukraine joining Russia, Putin will likely make this statement even if he had nothing to do with it - simply because it's better to pretend that "yeah, I did this, and all by myself". Suggest an objective and verifiable criteria, and we'll have a deal.

 

It's beyond delusional to make such claims. It can't be considered even a honest misapprehension.

Think whatever you wish. :-)

 

Recent months were very amusing though when reading US and European articles online - and then comparing the readers comments to the article text and tone. To be frank it's the first time I've seen readers opinion being so uniformly ignored by all major Western newspapers.

 

But it's kind of a moot point, because for as long as you think I'm not objective and probably brainwashed and I think the same about you - there's little we can do to establish the real state of events. :-)

[sunday]

"Radio Yerevan - Are there Russian troops involved in Eastern Ukraine?"

[sunday]

Yep, more or less

[savantu]

 

The change is in Ukrainian's favor, a concept completely missed by the Russians. Ukrainian well being not being linked to Russian well being is my oh my, sending chills on your, other comrades-in-thought and Russia's back. I for one, can only enjoy that.

Whether or not the change is in Ukrainian favor remains to be seen. So far the prospects don't look good.

 

You're making also a false connection between election support and division of the country. The 50% that supported Yanukovich, might not be in favor of joining Russia.Did it ever crossed your mind about this possibility ? Or is enough that Moscow is deciding on their part ?

Who is speaking about joining Russia? As far as I know, this is not a popular idea in the East. As far as I can tell they want increased autonomy, essentially some degree of safety from Kiev - since Kiev is currently controlled by Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine has no real representation there - and it doesn't look like elections will change anything. They do not want Kiev to be able to break their economic ties with Russia just to suit some hair-brained political agenda. Let's not forget that Maidan was brandishing European Association document as it's holy cow - the very document that Yanukovich refused to sign as it was a death warrant to Eastern industry. The very document that Yatsenyuk eventually only signed political part of - for the same reasons. Of course, by the moment it became clear that Yatsenyuk is not going to sign the economical part of the Association, protests in the East were already going strong, so it was a kind of a moot point.

 

 

Huh ? They gave the last president, how come they have no representation ?!

 

And why should joining the EU mean the death of the heavy industry or severing ties with Russia ? Who is feeding you this BS ? If anything, Ukraine will benefit enormously from FDI especially in manufacturing due to skilled labor, resources and low labor costs. Exactly what's missing now.

 

Romania for example tripled its exports since the communist times. Some still clamor for the old days with a few mammoth plants spewing smoke all day, textbook examples of chronic inefficiencies.. Today's industry is much more diverse and integrated in EU supply chains.