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All Things Stealth


Mr King

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14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Here is another one.

 

They should let SAAB take the lead on designing a single engine aircraft, using the same engine, a "light" version of the avionics and ECM suite, identical MMI, share as much software as possible, use the same stealth tech and so on. And obviously figure out how to share the development cost, how to share the production and market both aircrafts jointly. With allmost all future 5th gen aircraft being twin engined and all 6th gen (so far) being twin engined, there is a slot in the market for a single engined 6th gen, that would compete against...well nothing really, unless we include the effectively subsonic 5th gen F-35. Because few nations that doesn't develop their own 5th or 6th generation fighters right now, can ill afford twin engined stealth fighters, but might go for a single engined to replace their current 4th gen.

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Saab take the lead in doing the F16 equivalent to the Tempests F15? Its a good idea. I think the cost of F35 commends a cheaper approach, because its certainly not an F16 replacement.

Im told  that Saab wanted to be part of Tempest, till they figured out it was going to be too big to take off a road airstrip. This would be one way around that.

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There seems to be a lot of negative briefing about this programme, mainly stemming from The Telegraph, although I've seen it elsewhere also. Mainly related to claims that it will be cancelled by the newly minted government's strategic defence review.

Not sure where it actually originates - could be anything from FUD from foreign actors, or the Tories, to genuine internal concern from the RAF or BAE.

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17 hours ago, DB said:

There seems to be a lot of negative briefing about this programme, mainly stemming from The Telegraph, although I've seen it elsewhere also. Mainly related to claims that it will be cancelled by the newly minted government's strategic defence review.

Not sure where it actually originates - could be anything from FUD from foreign actors, or the Tories, to genuine internal concern from the RAF or BAE.

I think that the rapid advances in drone technology in Ukriane and Russia makes starting a 15 year long R&D project somewhat risky.

 

 

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19 hours ago, DB said:

There seems to be a lot of negative briefing about this programme, mainly stemming from The Telegraph, although I've seen it elsewhere also. Mainly related to claims that it will be cancelled by the newly minted government's strategic defence review.

Not sure where it actually originates - could be anything from FUD from foreign actors, or the Tories, to genuine internal concern from the RAF or BAE.

They have been doom mongering everything, including F35 and the two carriers. The truth is, nobody knows what they are going to do, but as the Government are ostensibly trying to get the country exporting, it seems unlikely Tempest is going to be canned, though it may end up being trimmed.

2 hours ago, TrustMe said:

I think that the rapid advances in drone technology in Ukriane and Russia makes starting a 15 year long R&D project somewhat risky.

 

 

Its more like 20 years. I think the agreement on developing Typhoon was signed in 1983, and it entered service in 2003 IIRC. Defence minister John Nott in his memoirs didnt even think it was needed, but he was convinced to go ahead with it, just to give BAE a future order book.

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3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They have been doom mongering everything, including F35 and the two carriers. The truth is, nobody knows what they are going to do, but as the Government are ostensibly trying to get the country exporting, it seems unlikely Tempest is going to be canned, though it may end up being trimmed.

What countries would be the potential export customers for the 4 different western twin engined 6th generation fighters to compete for? Is seems to me, like allmost all potential export customers eighter have their own 6th gen twin engined fighter project, or 5th generation fighter project. With the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Turkey, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan working on their own projects, where are few if any customers available for such a aircraft.

Australia and Canada could certainly have use for such a aircraft, and they could afford them, but they are unlikely to dig out that kind of money. Though miracles like AUKUS can happen.

Israel? Unlikely if it's not from the USA.

Poland? Seems more likely to get more F-35's or KAI KF-21SA.

Brazil? Can't even afford to replace their F-5's with JAS 39E.

The only one I can see i Saudi Arabia.

 

To me it looks like the current 6th generation programs have the combined export potential of the US military shiping industry, with both cases, only offering products, that no-one else could really afford.

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2 hours ago, Olof Larsson said:

What countries would be the potential export customers for the 4 different western twin engined 6th generation fighters to compete for? Is seems to me, like allmost all potential export customers eighter have their own 6th gen twin engined fighter project, or 5th generation fighter project. With the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Turkey, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan working on their own projects, where are few if any customers available for such a aircraft.

Australia and Canada could certainly have use for such a aircraft, and they could afford them, but they are unlikely to dig out that kind of money. Though miracles like AUKUS can happen.

Israel? Unlikely if it's not from the USA.

Poland? Seems more likely to get more F-35's or KAI KF-21SA.

Brazil? Can't even afford to replace their F-5's with JAS 39E.

The only one I can see i Saudi Arabia.

 

To me it looks like the current 6th generation programs have the combined export potential of the US military shiping industry, with both cases, only offering products, that no-one else could really afford.

Canada just committed to buying F-35A because the CF-18 fleet is at or past their flyable life.  There won't be new fighters even being considered for at least thirty years.

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On 7/29/2024 at 1:23 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

They have been doom mongering everything, including F35 and the two carriers. The truth is, nobody knows what they are going to do, but as the Government are ostensibly trying to get the country exporting, it seems unlikely Tempest is going to be canned, though it may end up being trimmed.

Its more like 20 years. I think the agreement on developing Typhoon was signed in 1983, and it entered service in 2003 IIRC. Defence minister John Nott in his memoirs didnt even think it was needed, but he was convinced to go ahead with it, just to give BAE a future order book.

They've been maturing the design since about 2016 already.

The main cause of delays to Eurofighter was the herding cats problem - i.e. getting funding and workshare properly arranged between partner states, with a bit of trouble from the French pulling out early and Volker Fucking Ruhe playing stupid games in the middle.

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Its certainly possible much of the design work goes back further than we think. I remember seeing a RCS model coming out the Warton plant in 2014, something like a year before Tempest was even announced. One has to question how much further than that the preliminary work was going on before that.

That said, it is generally true that the more complicated equipment is, the longer it takes to develop, and the longer it tends to remain in service. I was reading minutes from an MOD cross party committee from the early 80's, and they were lamenting then that it took about 3 or 4 years to develop a submarine in WW2, and it would be in service 15 years. in the 1980's, it took nearly 10 years to develop one, and they could expect it to last 30.  That is of course overlooking delays, which nearly cripple developing astute, because we had lost particular skills because we hadnt developed a nuclear submarine on our own for something like 2 decades by that point.

I still think it optimistic we are going to get Tempest in service on time and on budget. Thats not cynicism on my part, thats just reflecting the fact that complex weapons projects always take time to dial in.

 

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On 7/23/2024 at 9:10 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

Saab take the lead in doing the F16 equivalent to the Tempests F15? Its a good idea. I think the cost of F35 commends a cheaper approach, because its certainly not an F16 replacement.

Im told  that Saab wanted to be part of Tempest, till they figured out it was going to be too big to take off a road airstrip. This would be one way around that.

Given how much new F-16s cost, it's actually doing quite well as a replacement.

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