Polish Armoured Vehicles And Their Modernizations.

[Damian]

 

Agreements between Poland and Korea had been signed.

 

 

[Damian]

Some more news.

It seems that all 366 M1A2SEPv3's (250 new built and 116 upgraded M1A1SA's), will be used by 18th Mechanized Division. It means that this division will have 6x tank batallions, 58 tanks in each battalion + some tanks for training and reserve. This Division will also use new heavy IFV's based most likely on AS21 Redback.

This probably means that in time, 18th Mechanized Division will be redesignated as 18th Armored Division.

Meanwhile 11th Armored Cavalry Division, 12th Mechanized Division and 16th Mechanized Division will be armed with K2PL's and Borsuk IFV's.

[Mighty_Zuk]

10 hours ago, Damian said:

Some more news.

It seems that all 366 M1A2SEPv3's (250 new built and 116 upgraded M1A1SA's), will be used by 18th Mechanized Division. It means that this division will have 6x tank batallions, 58 tanks in each battalion + some tanks for training and reserve. This Division will also use new heavy IFV's based most likely on AS21 Redback.

This probably means that in time, 18th Mechanized Division will be redesignated as 18th Armored Division.

Meanwhile 11th Armored Cavalry Division, 12th Mechanized Division and 16th Mechanized Division will be armed with K2PL's and Borsuk IFV's.

What's the split within battalions? They seem quite large. Is it normal to split battalions apart and distribute between maneuvering groups?

[Perun]

...

The massive arms agreement carries an estimated price tag of $14.5 billion – larger than Poland’s entire current-year defense allocation of $14.1 billion. It covers the acquisition of 180 Korean-designed K2 Black Panther tanks, 672 K9 “Thunder” SPHs, and 48 FA-50 Golden Eagle light fighters.

...

[Perun]

And another source

...

While the pricing of the purchase has not been made public, it is widely expected to exceed the $7 billion total value of all arms sold by South Korea to global customers last year. With the fighter jets alone priced at $3 billion, the overall amount is estimated to be in the $14-15 billion range, potentially surpassing Poland’s entire current-year defense allocation of $14.1 billion.

https://www.rt.com/news/559796-warsaw-seoul-arms-framework-agreement/

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Perun said:

And another source

...

While the pricing of the purchase has not been made public, it is widely expected to exceed the $7 billion total value of all arms sold by South Korea to global customers last year. With the fighter jets alone priced at $3 billion, the overall amount is estimated to be in the $14-15 billion range, potentially surpassing Poland’s entire current-year defense allocation of $14.1 billion.

https://www.rt.com/news/559796-warsaw-seoul-arms-framework-agreement/

Poland plans toincrease the military budget from 2 to 3% GDP starting next year. There are also extra funds from outside MoD regular budget for some aquisition programs. 

[Perun]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

Poland plans toincrease the military budget from 2 to 3% GDP starting next year. There are also extra funds from outside MoD regular budget for some aquisition programs. 

Thanks mate

[Mighty_Zuk]

The deal is about a long term production of Korean systems, and payments typically take as long as the actual work. So if it's a contract for production until, say, 2035, then payments are spread until then.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

The deal is about a long term production of Korean systems, and payments typically take as long as the actual work. So if it's a contract for production until, say, 2035, then payments are spread until then.

All these contracts are split into two parts (more or less). First part is an immediate purchase off-the-shelf of 12 FA-50, 50 K9 and 180 K2 to fill the gaps. Second is about purchase of advanced PL version of 36 FA-50, and setting up production of K9PL (localized A2 version, basically Krab 2/ SuperKrab) and K2PL in Poland, with hundreds to be build in the next decade. Payment for all of this will be split in multiple budget years, and of course adjusted as time passes. TBH it is rather unlikely we'll follow through with the whole plan, but that remains to be seen.

 

In other news, apparently there's still some commotion regarding the "ring exchange" of AFV with Germany. It looks like Leo1 was also proposed at some point, as were Marders. I'm not sure what to make of these proposals - obviously it's too little and too late. My take is that the German MoD is trying to show angry DE industrialists, who just missed multi-billion contracts that it's doing everything it can to secure the cooperation.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/ringtausch-lepopard-polen-1.5629906

Edited July 29, 2022 by Huba

[methos]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

In other news, apparently there's still some commotion regarding the "ring exchange" of AFV with Germany. It looks like Leo1 was also proposed at some point, as were Marders. I'm not sure what to make of these proposals - obviously it's too little and too late. My take is that the German MoD is trying to show angry DE industrialists, who just missed multi-billion contracts that it's doing everything it can to secure the cooperation.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/ringtausch-lepopard-polen-1.5629906

These systems were proposed because they could be delivered quickly and NATO partners wanted a quick replacement for their tanks/IFVs. Old Leopard 2A4 tanks are in a worse condition and not available in a similar quantity, while new Leopard 2A7s and Puma IFVs are needed by the Bundeswehr.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, methos said:

These systems were proposed because they could be delivered quickly and NATO partners wanted a quick replacement for their tanks/IFVs. Old Leopard 2A4 tanks are in a worse condition and not available in a similar quantity, while new Leopard 2A7s and Puma IFVs are needed by the Bundeswehr.

Well, what is the purpose of bringing it up now, when it is clear that there isn't and won't be any deal?

[methos]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Well, what is the purpose of bringing it up now, when it is clear that there isn't and won't be any deal?

It was pretty much the first offer made by Germany. It is now brought up by the media and by Lambrecht, to show that Germany made multiple offers (rather than saying "you will only get twenty tanks"). Just like Germany is offering a joint procurement of the latest Leopard 2 with giving Polish delivery "highest priority" over other orders.

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, methos said:

It was pretty much the first offer made by Germany. It is now brought up by the media and by Lambrecht, to show that Germany made multiple offers (rather than saying "you will only get twenty tanks"). Just like Germany is offering a joint procurement of the latest Leopard 2 with giving Polish delivery "highest priority" over other orders.

OK, let me rephrase - this offer is dramatically insufficient when compared to what is needed, and we already moved to other solutions like months ago. What is the purpose of talking about it again, sending letters, expecting feedback etc? I can explain it only by assuming it is for PR consumption/ placating the industry who missed out on a extremely juicy contract, what else could that be?

Edited July 29, 2022 by Huba

[Mighty_Zuk]

Germany could offer Poland some role in the MGCS.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Germany could offer Poland some role in the MGCS.

We asked about joining some time ago AFAIR and were denied, or at least we were not able to negotiate a satisfactory terms of cooperation.

https://www.dw.com/pl/die-welt-niemcy-i-francja-wykluczają-polskę-z-projektów-zbrojeniowych/a-51858669

Edited July 29, 2022 by Huba

[BansheeOne]

Again, Poland settled on an MBT fleet replacement course even before Ukraine hit, and it doesn't involve any European tanks within the next ten to twenty years. Any expectations to get such of a standard at short notice that would make sense to keep in service until before rearmament is complete were unrealistic and probably never seriously entertained. All quarreling about it now is for domestic political purposes.

[methos]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

OK, let me rephrase - this offer is dramatically insufficient when compared to what is needed, and we already moved to other solutions like months ago. What is the purpose of talking about it again, sending letters, expecting feedback etc? I can explain it only by assuming it is for PR consumption/ placating the industry who missed out on a extremely juicy contract, what else could that be?

What is the purpose of repeating that there were no offers, that it was a "distraction maneuver" by Germany, etc.? Its politics. Lambrecht is just reacting in the same way.

There was obviously a gap between what German can offer and what Poland wanted. If Germany cannot deliver "what is needed", then stubbornly insisting to get "what is needed" doesn't help anyone.

Finding a compromise has not yet been possible, but there a still attempts. The whole "deal" has been more or less a PR action, given that Poland gave away its tanks to Ukraine before Germany even made the offer to provide replacements. Suggesting that this was all about placating the industry for the loss of a "jucy contract" (which hardly wouldn't be juicy given the numbers and systems invovled) is a bit silly. The industry would be a lot happier with other solutions.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, methos said:

What is the purpose of repeating that there were no offers, that it was a "distraction maneuver" by Germany, etc.? Its politics. Lambrecht is just reacting in the same way.

There was obviously a gap between what German can offer and what Poland wanted. If Germany cannot deliver "what is needed", then stubbornly insisting to get "what is needed" doesn't help anyone.

Finding a compromise has not yet been possible, but there a still attempts. The whole "deal" has been more or less a PR action, given that Poland gave away its tanks to Ukraine before Germany even made the offer to provide replacements. Suggesting that this was all about placating the industry for the loss of a "jucy contract" (which hardly wouldn't be juicy given the numbers and systems invovled) is a bit silly. The industry would be a lot happier with other solutions.

I think that BansheeOne summarized it perfectly one post above - despite previous cooperation in armor, Poland and Germany went separate ways a while before the war in Ukraine started. There were never a technical possibility of the "ring exchange" scheme to work for those two countries, and bashing each other about it was a display for internal political consumption in both DE and PL. Thing is that on PL side we really stopped bothering with it a while ago and concentrated on actual solution, while DE MoD somehow is still engaged in this futile exercise, as per linked article. It is hard to understand why, hence my "placate the industry" guess - given that PL intends to buy a 1000 tanks, and already operates a substantial Leopard 2 fleet, I'd be pretty pissed off as a KMW/ RM chairman, seeing the contract of a decade going to Hyundai...

[BansheeOne]

It's less about industry than our own domestic partisan politics. As I mentioned before on the next thread over, conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz has been doing opposition leader things, attacking the government for letting our allies down, and this week traveled around Poland and Lithuania running parallel foreign policy, trying to "calm the waves" allegedly stirred up by the government's failings. So it's probably no accident Lambrecht's letter was written, and promptly leaked, at the same time. It's an issue that can be wildly exploited precisely because everyone knows things are as they are, and there won't be any consequences to whatever stage thunder you make.

[Huba]

Ha, that sound really plausible, thanks for explaining that! It made some waves in Polish military/ military press circles, but given the state of bilateral relations at the moment (which I pity personally 😕 ) it doesn't really change anything...

[DB]

I'm hoping that our change of PM doesn't cause any spanners to be thrown into the works regarding UK/PL relations. That would suck pretty hard.

[Stefan Kotsch]

23 hours ago, Huba said:

I'd be pretty pissed off as a KMW/ RM chairman, seeing the contract of a decade going to Hyundai...

Not to forget, Poland was not invited to participate in the Tank of the Future project.  The Poles are rightly angry.

[seahawk]

Which will self destruct just like FCAS.

[Ssnake]

13 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Not to forget, Poland was not invited to participate in the Tank of the Future project.  The Poles are rightly angry.

I suspect that KNDS management was rightly concerned about adding even more sand into the gears of a multinational development and procurement process, particularly because the Bundeswehr was involved. Wouldn't say that the Bundeswehr has the inverted Midas touch; after all, the systems we get often are pretty decent. It's just that they are coming too late, because the planning and decision cycles are beyond any reasonable limit, and in too small numbers because the long decision cycles drive up the costs per system.

[Stefan Kotsch]

Yes, this is a multifaceted problem.  

Nevertheless, the Poles are a bit grumpy about it. It remains to be seen whether they will be happy with the Korean tank