Elections, Elections, Elections

[Ken Estes]

Krugman got his Nobel Prize for making the brilliant observation that consumers want lots of options before deciding how to spend money. His belief that inflation will kick start an economy was destroyed decades ago during the stagflation era.

 

More of his Tomfoolery...

 

http://www.krugmaniswrong.com/about/

 

Those damn academics, they'll get it wrong every time.... What we need is more common sense....

 

Every generation holds this to be a verifiable truth. So what happened?

Edited May 14, 2012 by Ken Estes

[Simon Tan]

Rabbi Schmuley Boteach is running for a seat as a NJ Congressman. That's interesting.

[NickM]

At least Clinton took an improving economy and did not run it into the ground. Contrast that with Dubya, o oracles of the right.

 

Ah yes...I remember Dan Rather & His 'anemic 5% economic growth under Bush 1st' became 'Clinton's Robust 5% growth-rate'

[Simon Tan]

I wonder if Greece can be put under receivership? it's a wonderful living laboratory for managing a failed state with the trappings of a Western democracy. God knows there plenty of those around and we can all learn from mistakes and it really is best to practice on the hopeless cases. There must be a lot of actual stuff in Greece that can be sold off to clear the debt and there will be plenty of employment opportunities created to do this. The upside of receivership is that no Greek politician has to own the process and they can be legitimately surly.

[Mike Steele]

I wonder if Greece can be put under receivership? it's a wonderful living laboratory for managing a failed state with the trappings of a Western democracy. God knows there plenty of those around and we can all learn from mistakes and it really is best to practice on the hopeless cases. There must be a lot of actual stuff in Greece that can be sold off to clear the debt and there will be plenty of employment opportunities created to do this. The upside of receivership is that no Greek politician has to own the process and they can be legitimately surly.

 

What gets me is how all the Western pols seem to want to emulate Greece, in a headlong rush to the bottom.

[DKTanker]

I wonder if Greece can be put under receivership? it's a wonderful living laboratory for managing a failed state with the trappings of a Western democracy. God knows there plenty of those around and we can all learn from mistakes and it really is best to practice on the hopeless cases. There must be a lot of actual stuff in Greece that can be sold off to clear the debt and there will be plenty of employment opportunities created to do this. The upside of receivership is that no Greek politician has to own the process and they can be legitimately surly.

I just don't understand. I thought our genetically intellectual superiors have told us that the best way for a nation to overcome economic problems is to spend more money. And if it is thought enough had already been spent, spend even more. Austerity is for RW extremists, spending notional money to take care of government employees and society's victims is noble and righteous. Besides, the more the government spends the better the GDP looks. And that's all that matters, right, that the GDP is moving in a positive trend?

[rmgill]

Greeks apologize to Europe with a large wooden horse....

[Ivanhoe]

What gets me is how all the Western pols seem to want to emulate Greece, in a headlong rush to the bottom.

 

 

also,

 

 

and

 

 

[Vuk]

It will end in Greece as it has in the "Tiger economies" be they Asian, Baltic or Celtic, the IMF will bail out the investors and banks and the taxpayers will be left with the bills and a destroyed economy

[Simon Tan]

Yes, but there's no real way for Greece to take the pain upfront in terms of a currency devaluation. If you look at the 97 SE Asian 'contagion' which was largely a speculative exercise, what happened was the Thai baht and Indon rupiah were driven into the ground and they took other regional currencies down with them. What happened was instant devaluation. While it was instantly brutal for the population, the lower rate of exchange suddenly made them more competitive and attractive to investors. It also put the fear of Western money into them. Each country was different, some very radically so like Malaysia which pegged to the USD and demonetized the ringgit to stop currency carriage. Singapore hardly devalued, the speculators were not going to mess with the op center and a government with ridiculous reserves.

 

Greece cannot devalue as long as it stays in the Euro and it continues to pile on debt because it cannot and will not take the pain upfront. The Greeks have no idea how to get themselves out of this and neither do the Europeans. This has to do with 'Euro glasses' which are just like 'red glasses' that the Soviets had.

The Greeks unfortunately lied to get into the Euro and drew out the Ponzi scheme for as long as they could. They own the actions of successive governments that they elected. They cannot blame a despot for their choices. Democracy has its downsides too....

 

If the Greeks taken a decision to leave the Euro when this broke, it would have been better but that was 'no go'. Not good....but for the Greeks and the Eurozone, better. The refusal to amputate the Greeks has caused a deterioration in the wider Eurozone. When you chop them off and kick them out of the Eurozone, then you can actually start to heal the damage. Sure it hurts, but it never did seem to trouble Europe before. And its not so bad, since Greeks can flee to other parts of Europe as cheap labor.

[Ken Estes]

My god, everything is a ponzi scheme. It must thrill the RW.

[Ivanhoe]

I wonder if Greece can be put under receivership? it's a wonderful living laboratory for managing a failed state with the trappings of a Western democracy. God knows there plenty of those around and we can all learn from mistakes and it really is best to practice on the hopeless cases. There must be a lot of actual stuff in Greece that can be sold off to clear the debt and there will be plenty of employment opportunities created to do this. The upside of receivership is that no Greek politician has to own the process and they can be legitimately surly.

 

Any organization or nation that is capable of turning Greece, Inc. around will find better risk/return profiles elsewhere. In this day and age, with few exceptions a macroeconomy's productive assets are its people. Unless the receiver does some sort of totalitarian cultural overhaul, you can't solve the problem of the ship of state being rowed by a small and shrinking % of the population. Maybe if the EU hires the PRC to take over gov't & private enterprise, and with "encouragement" by a million or so People's Army enforcers to work like mad for a decade or two to clear their debts.

[Simon Tan]

Greece has not a lot in terms of natural resources to pay for its lifestyle. Its agriculture is inefficient due to geography and it lacks stuff to dig out the ground. It is therefore dependent on its human resources for primary income. Unfortunately they are inefficient, overpriced and unproductive. They do have tourism but that is impacted by the fact they have to import all the stuff to service the tourists so the gain is lessened.

Greece should really be around the level of Albania had it not been for Euro loans and transfer payments.

 

The Ponzi scheme extends beyond Greece since the Eurothusiasts deliberately did not do due diligence in order to maximize the critical mass of the Eurozone and more tellingly, they had no rollback or severance plan or even a plumbing fix

 

They need a military coup. That's really the only way to break the log jam. At that point Eurozone can kick them out of the Euro and manage the fallout without feeling bad.

 

Simon

Edited May 15, 2012 by Simon Tan

[Typhoid Maxx]

Hungary is probably fine, recon Croatia is too...but Romania & Bulgaria looked like a bigger mess last time I was out there (3+ years back).

 

Effectively, a lot tanked in open competition with a free market as both countries were internally faaaaaaaar from ready to compete openly with the rest of the EU.

 

How badly? Holidaying in Bulgaria was cheaper than staying home in Serbia. Restaurant food prices were a third of what - to the West - is a basket case country.

 

Eating in Hotel seaside resort restaurants in Bulgaria was cheaper than making a sandwich back home.

[Typhoid Maxx]

France is a strange one...but over here, "fuck off" is openly mentioned if the Greeks don't buckle down. Expulsion IS debated in Europe, and by the time its public, its been spoken of quite a bit behind closed doors.

[Simon Tan]

You are in Euros©eptic Central. Thank you Baroness Thatcher!

[rmgill]

Thatcher was awfully prescient about the implications of the Euro. She saw that broken horse coming a long way down the road.

[Soren Ras]

France is a strange one...but over here, "fuck off" is openly mentioned if the Greeks don't buckle down. Expulsion IS debated in Europe, and by the time its public, its been spoken of quite a bit behind closed doors.

 

Well, the various packages have bought time enough to allow the European banks who were too exposed to a collapse in Greece to limit their liabilities. Most of the bad Greek debt they were sitting on has been sold off or written down or otherwise partially neutralized, which means at this point, it's mostly the Greeks who are left holding the bag when they leave the Euro. As the direct and immediate hurt the rest of Europe will feel at a Greek collapse has become manageable, consequently the incentive to save the Greeks is mostly gone. This is why everyone is suddenly saying officially what everyone has known for a long time.

 

The only problem being that Greece is merely the first of more to come and the Eurozone cannot insulate itself against a collapse in Spain and Italy. Thankfully, the voters in France have come up with a wonderful solution: Following the wise counsel of the Sage Krugman, they have divined that Keynesianism is always the answer and that Keynesian stimulus will always work, being immune to the actual real-world conditions it is to be implemented under, forever and ever, Amen: Just spend more money you don't have. What could possibly go wrong?

 

--

Soren

[Soren Ras]

Greeks apologize to Europe with a large wooden horse....

 

 

(of course, given the clown-show currently in progress, a large wooden rabbit might be even more appropriate)

 

--

Soren

[Simon Tan]

Fruhling in Paris (Apologies for not having an umlaut). It's just so much better to tour around the city in your open top Mercedes with the poxy Parisians off the roads.

Meanwhile, in London, Frenchmen will be plotting to free France from German domination.

How sad typical it is when the very first thing a French President does is go to Berlin to assure them of subservience.

Edited May 16, 2012 by Simon Tan

[Ivanhoe]

The only problem being that Greece is merely the first of more to come and the Eurozone cannot insulate itself against a collapse in Spain and Italy. Thankfully, the voters in France have come up with a wonderful solution: Following the wise counsel of the Sage Krugman, they have divined that Keynesianism is always the answer and that Keynesian stimulus will always work, being immune to the actual real-world conditions it is to be implemented under, forever and ever, Amen: Just spend more money you don't have. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Simon Tan]

Full disclosure. Were you a Europhile?

[DKTanker]

Thatcher was awfully prescient about the implications of the Euro. She saw that broken horse coming a long way down the road.

 

She was also vociferious about a reunified Germany as well. Just because she said something doesnt necessarily make it valid.

Nor does it invalidate it.

[DKTanker]

Anyway, its all rather academic now because I think Europe is about to implode. The worst thing about it is the continual crowing about it being a bad thing, I would have though Americans in particular would have been delighted with any institution designed to stop Europe fighting against itself?

Gaze back through history, can you name one program, treaty, or institution short of genocide, that was designed to ensure perpetual peace and tranquility that has accomplished that goal? Hubris to think this treaty or that will finally defy all that was before, and deny that humans are essentially pack animals (tribes), and that you can force people to act how you desire they act with the wave of a piece of paper.

 

As for European infighting, most Americans wouldn't give a tinkers damn.

[DKTanker]

So we shouldnt have let Germany reunify? About the only person at the time who also held that opinion was the Soviet premier.

I personally didn't care then, and don't care now. Does my generally apathy toward the German unifaction invalidate what I might say on other subjects? I should think not. Just as Thatcher had her views on German unification, why should they make her views on a unified European currency any less valid?

 

BTW, Kohl wasn't keen on German unification, just that there was that consitutional matter. Moreover, quite a few citizens of the former FRG weren't all too happy about it either.

Edited May 16, 2012 by DKTanker