Elections, Elections, Elections

[BansheeOne]

Former-prime-minister-hopeful-to-be-elected-again Robert Fico is a former nominal communist turned democratic socialist; he joined the KSC in 1987, after 1990 rose to vice chairman of the post-communist SDL, split from them in 1999 and founded the Social Democratic Smer (Direction). He had three (partial) terms as PM 2010-2016 in which he was accused of turning Slovakia into a corrupt mafia state, culminating in the murder of a couple of investigative journalists in 2018 (see the "The EU and the Mob" thread).

After him, Slovakian politics have been unstable due to polarization about direction and effects of the various recent crises; AIUI, public opinion is split about 50:50 on support for Ukraine, for example. Following the recent collapse of the shaky center-right government, he's running on a platform catering to popular resentments, chiefly against said support. Which has been described by left-trending media as him "moving to the right", but as frequently noted here, the same resentments are being exploited by the far Left and Right, to the point they become indistinguishable. I have him down as an Orban-type populist who really has no ideology other than coming to and staying in power, ensured by cronyism and kleptocracy.

Quote

Slovaks vote in tight election as ex-PM Fico eyes return

5 hours ago

Populist Robert Fico is critical of arms supply to Ukraine, and has taken aim at the EU and NATO as well as the LGBTQ+ minority. His rival Michal Simecka more aligned with the EU in his views.

Slovaks began voting on Saturday for an early parliamentary election that would decide their future support for Ukraine.

Polling stations for the country's 5.5 million people opened at 7 a.m. local time (0500 UTC) and will close at 10 p.m. (2000 UTC).

The left-wing Smer-SD of populist Robert Fico is to head off against the centrist Progressive Slovakia led by European Parliament Vice President Michal Simecka.

Fico served as prime minister from 2006 to 2010 and from 2012 to 2018.

Both parties were polling at around 20% shortly before voting went underway. The election winner will likely need the support of smaller parties to form government in the 150-seat parliament.

The center-left Hlas (Voice) party of Peter Pellegrini, who is a former member of Smer-SD and served as prime minister in 2018-2020, is polling in third place and could play a decisive role in coalition negotiations. He has not expressed a preference for cooperating with either of the larger parties but added party was closer to Fico.

While campaigning, Simecka vowed to rid Slovakia of "the past" and urged Slovaks to "elect the future."

Fico profits by fueling 'anger' over pandemic and war

Electoral campaigns have been marked by sharp disagreement on foreign policy.

Fico has said if he returns to power Slovakia will continue supporting Ukraine but would not provide arms or ammunition. He has been called pro-Russian by opponents, a criticism he rejects.

A Progressive Slovakia government would maintain Bratislava's current support for Kyiv.

"Fico benefitted from all that anxiety brought by the (coronavirus) pandemic and the (Ukraine) war, by the anger spreading in Slovakia in the past three years, and fueling that anger," sociologist Michal Vasecka was cited by the Reuters news agency as saying.

Slovakia has the eurozone's highest inflation rate of 10% and a financially depleted health system.

Fico has also gained support over dissatisfaction over a center-right coalition whose government collapsed last year, triggering early elections.

https://www.dw.com/en/slovaks-vote-in-tight-election-as-ex-pm-fico-eyes-return/a-66968108

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Slovakia elections: Populist Fico grabs victory

4 hours ago

Robert Fico's populist SMER-SSD party has won Slovakia's election, and may lead the government for the fourth time. Fico has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine.

Former Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico's populist SMER-SSD party has won Slovakia's election, results showed on Sunday.

Fico leads a populist party that has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine and is critical of the EU and NATO.

The Smer-SD party scored 23.3%, beating the centrist Progressive Slovakia on 17%, with almost all votes counted. Previously, two exit polls had indicated that Progressive Slovakia would be the winner.

If Fico successfully creates a majority coalition, he will lead the European nation for the fourth time. 

"Fico is a technician of power, by far the best in Slovakia. He does not have a counterpart at the moment," said sociologist Michal Vasecka from the Bratislava Policy Institute.

"Fico is always following opinion polls, understands what is happening" in society, he added. 

HLAS in key position

The HLAS (Voice) party, which could become the kingmaker for forming the next government, was third with just over 15% of the vote. 

SMER-SSD, set to clinch 42 seats in the 150-member parliament, will need coalition partners to form Slovakia's next government. The HLAS, with an estimated 27 seats, could be a key partner.

"The distribution of seats confirms HLAS as a party without which any normally functioning government coalition cannot be put together," party leader Peter Pellegrini said as most results were known, indicating that his current party had no preference for "any combination or coalition."

Before the vote, Pellegrini kept all options open but hinted his party was closer to Fico.

However, PS party leader Michal Simecka has also not given up hope of forming the next government.

"It remains our aim for Slovakia to have after this election a stable pro-European government," Simecka told supporters when most votes were counted.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/slovakia-elections-populist-fico-grabs-victory/a-66968108

[Skywalkre]

On 9/30/2023 at 12:53 AM, BansheeOne said:

Former-prime-minister-hopeful-to-be-elected-again Robert Fico is a former nominal communist turned democratic socialist; he joined the KSC in 1987, after 1990 rose to vice chairman of the post-communist SDL, split from them in 1999 and founded the Social Democratic Smer (Direction). He had three (partial) terms as PM 2010-2016 in which he was accused of turning Slovakia into a corrupt mafia state, culminating in the murder of a couple of investigative journalists in 2018 (see the "The EU and the Mob" thread).

After him, Slovakian politics have been unstable due to polarization about direction and effects of the various recent crises; AIUI, public opinion is split about 50:50 on support for Ukraine, for example. Following the recent collapse of the shaky center-right government, he's running on a platform catering to popular resentments, chiefly against said support. Which has been described by left-trending media as him "moving to the right", but as frequently noted here, the same resentments are being exploited by the far Left and Right, to the point they become indistinguishable. I have him down as an Orban-type populist who really has no ideology other than coming to and staying in power, ensured by cronyism and kleptocracy.

https://www.dw.com/en/slovaks-vote-in-tight-election-as-ex-pm-fico-eyes-return/a-66968108

So... it could have been the biases of the reporter (very pro-Ukrainian) leaning into his worst fears in coverage of something that he wasn't an expert on himself?  Still frustrating to hear the outcome of the election but your description makes it a bit easier to hear.  Thanks for the response.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

New Zealand's National Party to lead new government as Labour concedes

By Lucy Craymer

October 14, 2023 12:08 PM GMT+2 Updated an hour ago

WELLINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - New Zealand's centre-right National Party led by Christopher Luxon will form a new government with its preferred coalition party ACT, after Labour leader Chris Hipkins conceded he could not form a government following the country's general election.

The National Party, now in opposition, had 40% of the votes while the ACT party had 9%, which based on the current tally would give the two parties enough seats to form a government, according to the Electoral Commission.

"As the numbers stand, Labour is not in a position to form a government," Hipkins said. He added that he had called Luxon earlier to concede defeat.

Labour is currently sitting on 26% of the vote.

The National-ACT majority is slim and still may need support from populist party New Zealand First to form a government.

There are normally 120 seats in parliament but because the Te Pati Maori's four seats from constituencies exceeded its share of the national popular vote, the electoral system calls for creating additional proportional seats to even out representation. This will alter the final seat tally.

Political commentator and former National staffer Ben Thomas said the result for the core centre-right bloc was much stronger than polls were showing in the last few weeks of the campaign.

"The overwhelming driver was dissatisfaction with the government," he said.

Under former leader Jacinda Ardern, Labour in 2020 became the first party to capture an outright majority since New Zealand switched to a mixed member proportional system in 1996.

But Labour has since lost support, with many New Zealanders dissatisfied over the country's long COVID-19 lockdown and the rising cost of living.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has tried to re-engage with those voters, focusing on what he termed "bread-and-butter issues", but was unable to gain traction in the polls.

National has campaigned on providing relief for struggling middle-income New Zealanders, bringing historically high inflation under control, and reducing the country's debt.

[...]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/voting-under-way-new-zealand-election-2023-10-13/

[BansheeOne]

On 8/1/2023 at 4:41 PM, BansheeOne said:

Though elections in Poland are only in October, it might be timely to direct attention to the rise of a third power which could upset the whole applecart. Polls look more or less hung between the center-left and right camp anyway, but while these guys are technically on the right, both they and the two major parties claim they won't play with each other, posing the question of who the heck is gonna form a government then.

Exit polls:

Quote

Polish PiS ahead but seen losing majority in election - exit poll

By Anna Wlodarczak-semczuk and Anna Koper

October 15, 2023 9:32 PM GMT+2 Updated 39 min ago

WARSAW, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Poland's ruling nationalists were ahead in parliamentary elections on Sunday but without a majority, an exit poll showed, raising the possibility that the liberal opposition could seek to form a governing coalition.

The Ipsos exit poll gave the governing Law and Justice (PiS) party 36.8% of the vote, which would translate into 200 lawmakers in the 460-seat parliament.

The largest opposition grouping, the liberal Civic Coalition (KO), was projected to win 31.6% of the vote, which would give it 163 seats. Together with the centre-right Third Way coalition and the New Left, who could enter a coalition with KO, it would command 248 seats.

Official results will start coming in later on Sunday.

KO leader Donald Tusk, a former European Council president, has vowed to mend Warsaw's relations with Brussels, which have been strained by numerous clashes over issues such as judicial independence, LGBT rights and migration.

"Democracy has won ... This is the end of the PiS government," a jubilant Tusk told party members on Sunday evening.

Critics say that since coming to power in 2015, PiS has increased political influence over the courts and turned state media into propaganda outlets. Some 110 billion euros of EU funds earmarked for Poland have been frozen due to rule-of-law concerns.

[...]

PiS, which denies any wrongdoing, says its reforms aim to make the country and its economy more fair while removing the last vestiges of communism. It has built its support on generous social handouts, which it says rival parties will stop.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-holds-high-stakes-election-amid-rows-over-democratic-rule-2023-10-15/

I expect more screaming and gnashing of teeth before this is settled.

[urbanoid]

We're waiting, 36 PiS -31 KO/PO were just exit polls yesterday, now we already have 38-27, with data from 49% of districts.

[urbanoid]

Now it,s 38-28, with the opposition party Third Way (a coalition of centrist Poland 2050 and the agrarian party PSL) at 14, The Left at 8 and Konfederacja at 7.

It all boils down to d'Hondt which favors larger parties and gives them proportionately more mandates than their vote percentage.

PiS may go lower yet, as typically the count in larger cities takes longer and they usually lose there.

[BansheeOne]

DW has a real-time graph from the election committee going. I've seen the typical deviation from exit polls to the right overnight, with PiS over 40 and KO below 27 in the morning, and then the rebound to the left as results from bigger urban constituencies started coming in. I'm somewhat unclear how this eight-percent threshold for alliances on top of the five percent for individual parties works - isn't Konfederacja an alliance which should be out at currently 7.3, or is one of their constituent party above five, dragging the others in with them?

Overall not quite as tight of a race between camps as polls suggested, even if the current ca. 51:45 still speak of considerable polarization. Though opinion over here, still based upon exit polls, tends toward Tusk winning by largely having avoided polarization during the campaign. Personally, I think it would probably be a good idea if the next election wasn't fought out between the same two guys who have done it for about 20 years, and hate each other's guts.

Quote

The Return of Liberal Poland?

Opposition Parties Secure Votes for New Government

Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk appears set to become the country's next leader. With his likely election, it appears possible that a major bastion of right-wing populism in Europe has fallen.

An Analysis by Jan Puhl

16.10.2023, 12.14 Uhr

Donald Tusk, the leader of the liberal Civic Coalition, is almost jumping for joy. "We did it," he calls out to his supporters. "Democracy has won. We have ousted them from power."

At around the same time, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki posts on Facebook in all-caps: "WE WON. LONG LIVE POLAND."

In their own way, each is right, as strange as that may seem. The nationalist conservative ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) managed to secure 36.8 percent of the vote, putting it well ahead of other parties.

Tusk, meanwhile, attracted 31.6 percent of Polish voters to his side, putting him in second in terms of overall votes. But it placed him in a far better position to form a coalition government than his adversaries. Together with the left-wing Lewica party and the center-left Third Way alliance, he would have 248 seats, a solid majority in the 460-member Polish national parliament, the Sejm, according to forecasts by pollsters and the media.

[...]

The Poles have a long, tough and extremely polarizing election campaign behind them, at the end of which they flocked to the polls. Turnout was a record 72 percent.

And it was – it seemed on Sunday evening – above all Tusk who appeared to profit from that turnout. In pre-election polls, his party had been consistently under the 30 percent mark and frequently up to 10 percentage points behind PiS. But on Sunday, he fared far better, coming far closer to PiS than expected.

Polling institutes are likely to argue in the coming days over how to explain this effect: Was it Tusk's matter of fact, relatively calm tone and his 100-point program that won people over?

Are Poles Fed Up with the Constant Agitation?

Or has the PiS strategy of extreme polarization in the country backfired? Were many voters simply shocked at how harshly the ruling party had treated the opposition leader? Did they go to the polls to put PiS in check?

[...]

The PiS had focused its election campaign almost entirely on opposition leader Tusk. First, in the spring, the party tried to pass a law that would have given it the leverage to summarily exclude the opposition leader from the election.

Then, in its election campaign, it reduced every issue to Tusk, a man the party claimed was behind all negative political developments. Tusk, the party claimed, wants to abolish the minimum wage. Tusk, it alleged, is an agent of the Germans. And Tusk is letting so many migrants into the country that Poland will soon resemble the Italian island of Lampedusa, PiS asserted.

The Biggest Hurdle: Vestiges of PiS Rule

At the same time, Poland has also changed under PiS rule: It has become more comfortable, prosperous and calm. The country has just taken in millions of Ukrainian refugees without the country sinking into chaos. Solidarity with the women and children from the invaded country remains high.

Poles don’t even seem to be buying into the anti-German narrative any longer. In polls, only just under 8 percent say they still consider their western neighbor to be a threat.

PiS lost power once before in 2007. At the time, political scientists found that even many conservative voters were fed up with the permanent breathlessness in politics, and the hatred and strife that went along with it.

[...]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-return-of-liberal-poland-opposition-parties-secure-votes-for-new-government-a-f3addefc-b23e-4861-8695-60945c619656

[Huba]

51 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

DW has a real-time graph from the election committee going. I've seen the typical deviation from exit polls to the right overnight, with PiS over 40 and KO below 27 in the morning, and then the rebound to the left as results from bigger urban constituencies started coming in.

That's pretty much what is going on since early morning - PiS started with around 40 and it's advantage is slowly diminishing since then. At the moment, after 68% of votes was counted, their result is 37,4, while Tusk's party is at 28,6. Official results are continuously updated here: https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/pl/sejm/wynik/pl
 

Quote

I'm somewhat unclear how this eight-percent threshold for alliances on top of the five percent for individual parties works - isn't Konfederacja an alliance which should be out at currently 7.3, or is one of their constituent party above five, dragging the others in with them?

The threshold is 5% for individual voting committees and 8% for alliances, only alliances in the race being KO (Tusk's party) and  The Third Way.
 

[BansheeOne]

Thanks for that.

Official results as frequently quite close to exit polls, with the Center-Left securing exactly the projected 248 out of 460 seats. Overall race OTOH not even close now with an eleven-point lead over the Right, apparently helped by a record turnout of 74 percent; previous high was 63 right at the first democratic election in 1989. By some reports, this was mostly due to young and female voters, the latter widely mobilized over the abortion issue. ISTR urbanoid predicted at the time of the tightening of the law that this might lose PiS the elections. US Republicans may want to take note.

Quote

Poland's pro-EU opposition ahead in election with record turnout

Warsaw (AFP) – Poland's pro-EU opposition was set to win a parliamentary majority with almost all the votes tallied early Tuesday, after a national election which saw the highest turnout since the fall of Communism.

Issued on: 16/10/2023 - 10:17 Modified: 17/10/2023 - 02:43

The surprise result would end eight years of rule by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, during which relations with the European Union -- and in recent weeks with war-torn Ukraine -- have dramatically soured.

The opposition, led by former EU chief Donald Tusk, had billed Sunday's parliamentary elections as the "last chance" to save democracy.

"This is the end of grim times," Tusk declared late on Sunday.

With more than 99 percent of votes counted, PiS was in the lead but without a majority at 35.6 percent, while Tusk's Civic Coalition, the Third Way and Left parties together had 53.5 percent.

Official results were expected later on Tuesday.

Putting the liberal opposition in power would bring a huge political shift in Poland, countering the PiS party's nationalist hardline Catholic vision for the country.

The election was dominated by issues such as Russia's invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, migrants and women's rights and more than 74 percent of voters went to the polls.

[...]

As the votes were counted, heavyweight politicians from both the ruling party and the opposition were largely silent throughout Monday while they waited for the formal results.

'More women than men'

Tusk has promised to liberalise abortion laws.

This issue, according to analysts, prompted an unprecedented mobilisation among women voters and helped tip the balance in favour of the liberal opposition parties.

"Until recently, half of women said they would not vote. Now these exit polls actually show more women than men voted," said Justyna Kajta, a sociologist at SWPS University in Warsaw.

[...]

Tusk served as Poland's prime minister between 2007 and 2014 and as European Council president between 2014 and 2019.

He managed to bring hundreds of thousands of Poles onto the streets in Poland ahead of the election, claiming that a million people had marched against PiS.

But some worried that he has been around too long.

Karol Jedlinski, a 42-year-old businessman, said he struggled to imagine Tusk leading Poland again.

"He is more of a figure of the past to me."

Kaczynski still has 'hope'

But much still depends on President Andrzej Duda.

The conservative figure spoke to reporters on a visit to the Vatican on Monday, praising the high election turnout.

But he urged people to be patient and "wait for the results". And while he congratulated the election "winners", he stopped short of saying who he would tap to form a government.

Analysts warn that any governing coalition formed by the opposition could face run-ins with the president, who is a PiS ally.

PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski had said on Sunday he still had "hope" he could form a government.

The most likely coalition partner for PiS had been Confederation, a far-right party.

But the exit poll suggested PiS and Confederation together would fall short of a majority, with a total of just 212 seats.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231016-poland-s-liberal-opposition-on-course-to-win-election

Edited October 17, 2023 by BansheeOne

[lucklucky]

Portuguese Socialist Prime Minister  António Costa falls on criminal corruption charges.

Edit: Corruption charges linked to Lithium and Hydrogen deals.

A majority government that has been very turbulent and decadent - even in socialist own turfs like the National Health System with lot of people having to get private health insurance to get medical support on time -  i don't see how it can survive, but it is not out of question with our feckless "socialite" 74 years old President.

Edit2: seems the President will not have much chances than dissolve the parliament and set new elections for January.  No one until now defended other solution and he follows the wind 99% of the time.

Edited November 7, 2023 by lucklucky

[lucklucky]

The unortodox sometimes Ultra-Liberal(read Libertarian, anarch capitalist) Millei  under the banner Forward Freedom wins Argentinian elections with 56% , my country system newspaper calls it "Extreme Right"... 

He advocates to abolish the Argentinian Central Bank and for people to just use dollars, abolish most ministries.

Argentina have 200% inflation.

In the official document sent to the Electoral Court, Milei's main proposals are:

Economy:

Eliminate unproductive State spending and reduce the size of the State
Cut spending on retirement and pensions, aiming for a "private capitalization system"
Privatize loss-making public companies
"Immediately" remove all exchange rate restrictions, which limit purchases of dollars by Argentines
Eliminate the Central Bank and promote the dollarization of the economy
Promote a tax reform that "eliminates and reduces taxes to enhance the development of production processes"
Concessions for the exploration of natural resources
Promote a labor reform that eliminates compensation, replacing it with an unemployment insurance system, in addition to "promoting freedom of union membership" and "reducing taxes for workers"
Eliminate retentions on exports and import duties

Health, education and technology:

Implement technological solutions, such as telemedicine, electronic prescription
Protect children from their conception (Anti Abortion)
Create an educational check voucher system
Eliminate mandatory comprehensive sexual education at all levels of education
Invest in maintaining the current energy system, but also "promote new sources of renewable and clean energy (solar, wind, green hydrogen)

Security:

Build penitentiary establishments with a public-private management system
Study the possibility of reducing the age of imputability of minors
Deregulation of the legal firearms market, protecting the "legitimate and responsible use of citizens"

 

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by lucklucky

[sunday]

I hope that Argentina gets a respite.

Millei will face a lot of resistance from the Argentinian entitled classes.

[BansheeOne]

It may be the hour of the outsiders.

Quote

How the Dutch election may buck Europe's populist trend

Ella Joyner in Tilburg, the Netherlands

2 hours ago

Rising star center-right candidate Pieter Omtzigt is "riding the populist wave" without being a populist himself, analysts say. He may have helped calm the tone during this Dutch election, but can his model be exported?

With only a few days to go until the Dutch election, a surprising number of voters on the streets of the small southern city of Tilburg on Thursday had not made up their minds.

"I still need to read up," Pleun, a 23-year-old economics student who declined to give her surname, told DW in the shopping district of the majority-Catholic town, once renowned for its wool industry. "These elections are very important because now a lot of things will change."

At the very least, the Netherlands is set to get a new premier. Mark Rutte of the center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), who has served as prime minister since 2010, is stepping down. Across the spectrum, there are many new faces at the helm of major parties.

Moreover, three big party forces are polling almost neck-and-neck, making a wide range of coalitions in the kaleidoscopic multiparty Dutch system possible after the vote on November 22. 

Even voters with many more elections under the belt, like 72-year-old librarian Rien Vissers, aren't totally sure. He himself is undecided between the center-left alliance of GroenLinks and Labor (PvdA), polling third, and the Christian democratic CDA, set to take a drubbing.

"I actually think that it would be good for a more left-wing government to come in after all these years," Vissers told DW in Tilburg. "On the other hand, the CDA are having a very difficult time, but they are a good center party with a lot of experience in government."

Back to the future with Pieter Omtzigt

Viewed from the outside, the standout story of this Dutch election season has been the emergence of New Social Contract (NSC), a conservative, centrist but anti-establishment party founded in August by popular former CDA lawmaker Pieter Omtzigt.

The 49-year-old made a name for himself helping to expose the full extent of a child benefits scandal, which saw tens of thousands of parents falsely accused of fraud, often with devastating financial and personal consequences. Working with lawmakers from different parties, Omzigt's tenacity alienated him from his party but endeared him to the public.

According to Leonie de Jonge, a political scientist from the University of Groningen, Omtzigt has built a strong profile "of being the watchdog of the government, being very feisty in parliament and asking the right questions, biting into documents, and really not letting go until he knows the answer."

NSC, which, again, has only existed for a few months, is currently joint first in opinion polls with Rutte's VVD at 18%, according to news outlet Politico, though Omtzigt has indicated he is not necessarily gunning for the premiership himself.

"He's very much trusted," de Jonge told DW. "And we in the Netherlands are experiencing a period of distrust in politicians after all the scandals that have happened."

Omtzigt seems able to regenerate trust, with people seeing him "as sort of a reasonable alternative to the status quo," she said.

Anti-establishment appeal, without populism

One Tilburg resident who has already decided to vote for Omtzigt is 67-year-old Maarten van den Tillaart.

"Pieter's got a new sound," the former CDA local councilor told DW at a small political debate between candidates. "He's an honest politician. We have seen that in the past years."

Given the Dutch public's trust issues, one might expect voters to swing toward figures that position themselves as outsiders to a corrupt elite — a classic marker of populism. Indeed, the far-right populist Freedom Party, led by staunchly anti-Islam Geert Wilders, is currently fourth in the polls with 13% — more than its last result in 2021, but less than in 2017.

Omtzigt's party is not of the same ilk, although he does position himself as speaking up for common people.

"[The NSC's] ideology is not populist, but they do represent very much a movement that is dissatisfied with the established political system," said Simon Otjes of Leiden University. "It's important to note that extremism and populism don't necessarily go together," he added, pointing to other European examples like Italy's 5-Star Movement.

'Riding the populist wave'

De Jonge sees things similarly to Otjes. "[Omtzigt] seems to be riding the populist wave, because he's sort of anti-establishment, but coming from the establishment," she said.

What is interesting about Omtzigt for de Jonge is that he has attracted voters from the left, the center-right and the far right. "That's what makes him so powerful," she added.

Omtzigt's prominence on the political landscape has also helped contribute to a calmer tone during this election season, she said, as well as a greater focus on content.

The last election was held during the COVID pandemic in 2021. "The campaign then was very personalized, it was centered around leadership. Rutte ran with no content, but really just on his person [sic.], saying I'm the right leader to steer this ship through this crisis," she said.

Personal style aside, Omtzigt's exact politics are quite hard to pin down — to the right on migration, but more to the left on welfare. On many issues, they are fairly ambiguous, according to de Jonge, perhaps unsurprisingly given how new Omtzigt's party is.

NSC's electoral program outlines plans to try to limit net inward migration to 50,000 people a year, around half what it was in 2021.

"We want fewer people to come here for asylum, study or work," party material states.

NSC also wants to build a lot of housing (a major issue in this election) and tackle cost-of-living problems for poorer families.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/how-the-dutch-election-may-buck-europes-populist-trend/a-67471060

[Markus Becker]

On 11/20/2023 at 1:53 AM, lucklucky said:

The unortodox sometimes Ultra-Liberal(read Libertarian, anarch capitalist) Millei  under the banner Forward Freedom wins Argentinian elections with 56% , my country system newspaper calls it "Extreme Right"...

Our quality state media did one better. He's a ... libertarian right winger!

The difference between reality and satire is getting more and more difficult to tell.

[mandeb48]

Does anyone know of a antecedent of an anarch capitalist becoming president of a country? In any case, he arrives with a center-right alliance, we will see if that ties his hands a little at least.

[lucklucky]

I don't think so.

The problem i see with him is the same with Trump, Bolsonaro, a lack of temperance and emotional control that is autodestructive and rub unnecessarily a lot of people wrong way. Governing is making allies without losing focus on objectives.

Edited November 22, 2023 by lucklucky

[sunday]

8 hours ago, lucklucky said:

I don't think so.

The problem i see with him is the same with Trump, Bolsonaro, a lack of temperance and emotional control that is autodestructive and rub unnecessarily a lot of people wrong way. Governing is making allies without losing focus on objectives.

That perception could be because some slant in the press covering his actions regarding entrenched bureaucrats. Seems that was the case with both Trump, and Bolsonaro.

I mean, saying no to Bolton/Mattis ideas of making war on Iran could be seen as unnecessary rubbing, but...

[BansheeOne]

Biggest question after yesterday's Dutch elections with the unexpectedly strong showing of Geert Wilders' party: Will coalition talks beat last time's record of nine months? 😁 Looks to me like it will be hard to form a government either with or without him ...

Quote

Geert Wilders: Far-right populist wins big in Dutch election

2 hours ago

With almost all votes counted, Geert Wilders' far-right PVV party is well ahead of its closest rival. The anti-Islam populist has vowed to form a government.

With 98% of the votes counted on Thursday, Geert Wilders' far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) won 37 of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament.  

The populist party was well ahead of a joint Labor-Green bloc with 25 seats and the conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte with 24 seats.

Wilders' victory is expected to have far-reaching consequences in the Netherlands and Europe. The anti-EU politician has vowed to halt all immigration, slash Dutch payments to the union and block the entrance of any new members, including Ukraine. 

How long will a new Dutch government take to form?

In his victory speech, Wilder said: "We want to govern and... we will govern."

Once all the votes from Wednesday's election have been counted, party leaders will have to negotiate the makeup of the next governing coalition. With multiple parties, and with the PVV in the lead, the horse-trading could take several months.

A coalition with the VVD, and the NSC party of centrist lawmaker Pieter Omtzigt would have 81 seats combined, more than the required 76.

However, it is not clear Wilders will be able to garner the necessary support to form a workable government. Before the vote, the leaders of the three other top parties had said they would not serve in a PVV-led coalition.

After the 2021 election, it took more than 271 days, or nine months, for a four-party arrangement to come together.

Although it is the tradition, there is no guarantee that the party that wins the most seats will end up delivering the prime minister. Rutte will remain in a caretaker role until a new government is installed, likely in the first half of 2024.

Once the coalition makeup is agreed upon, the parties sign a coalition agreement and the new government is tasked with setting out its plans in parliament, followed by a vote of confidence.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/geert-wilders-far-right-populist-wins-big-in-dutch-election/a-67528159

[lucklucky]

Portuguese writer that lives there explanation:

Earthquake in the Netherlands
Wilders' election victory explained to the little ones:

A Dutch citizen who applies to be able to rent a house in a social housing estate will, at best, have to wait 12 (twelve) years before their turn comes.

Refugees are almost immediately provided with furnished and equipped accommodation and a grant that allows them and their families to live comfortably.

https://tempocontado.blogspot.com/2023/11/terramoto-na-holanda.html

 

 

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Dutch politician Wilders' hopes of building coalition hit hurdle

By Toby Sterling and Bart H. Meijer

November 24, 2023 3:54 PM GMT+1 Updated 4 min ago

AMSTERDAM, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Populist politician Geert Wilders' hopes of establishing a right-wing government in the Netherlands hit an early hurdle on Friday as the party whose support he needs most ruled out directly joining a new cabinet.

"Voters have spoken and they have told us to skip this round," said Dilan Yesilgoz, the new leader of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte's conservative VVD party, which lost seats and finished third in Wednesday's election.

"However we would make a centre-right cabinet possible. We will support constructive proposals, so this would be a form of outside support," Yesilgoz said.

Wilders, the veteran anti-EU, anti-immigration politician known for his bleach-blond hair, called Yesilgoz's remarks "very disappointing".

Beating all predictions, Wilders booked major gains in the election on an anti-immigration platform, taking a projected 38 seats in the 150-member Dutch parliament, well ahead of the 25 seats secured by a joint Labour/Green ticket and 24 for the VVD.

But to gain a majority he will need to work with at least two more moderate parties which have said he must give up many of the anti-Islam policies he is best known for before they will consider working with him.

[...]

Another potential Wilders' partner, New Social Contract (NSC), an upstart party which took 20 seats on a reform platform, has said Wilders would have to drop threats to leave the European Union and change clauses of the Dutch constitution forbidding religious discrimination before it could consider cooperation.

"I dare to say this is not going to be the most easy formation we've ever had," NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt said, adding there was no guarantee he would be willing to join a coalition under Wilders either.

Early positions in coalition talks often shift when talks drag on. Talks after the previous Dutch election in March 2021 took a record-breaking 299 days.

Should Wilders' efforts eventually fail, other parties could try to build a more centrist coalition without him. New elections are the final option if no coalition deal can be reached.

Among smaller parties, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (Boer Burger Beweging – BBB) said it would be willing to govern with Wilders. Leader Caroline van der Plas arrived for the talks in style, riding in a green tractor.

She told reporters on Thursday she expected Wilders would drop the most objectionable parts of his party's platform in order to win support.

"Wilders has promised to be milder, now he has to show it," she said.

The BBB's seven seats in the lower house of parliament wouldn't be needed for a majority there, but it holds a large number of seats in the senate, which has the power to block legislation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-parties-tackle-tricky-coalition-talks-after-wilders-shock-poll-win-2023-11-24/

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

 

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Wilders-Led Cabinet Prospects Hit Roadblock

To no one’s surprise, the two largest conservative parties are resisting forming a cabinet with Geert Wilders’ eurosceptic PVV party.

Tristan Vanheuckelom — November 30, 2023

Ronald Plasterk, newly appointed to lead the Dutch coalition talks, appears to have his work cut out for him after the three largest potential coalition parties said no to forming a government with Geert Wilders’ PVV.

Plasterk, who is replacing the previous negotiator who abruptly resigned Monday, spoke on Wednesday, November 29th, with the leaders of the largest parties following last week’s Dutch elections. 

While Geert Wilders’ PVV party took around 24% of the vote in last week’s election, it still needs partners to form a coalition government. 

The two largest right-leaning parties that Wilders hopes to work with—outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s VVD party and the newcomer NSC—said they are not willing to enter coalition talks with him, thereby dashing his hopes of a majority government. 

NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt told Dutch media after his talk with Plasterk that his party was not ready to start negotiating on forming either a majority or minority government.

Omtzigt reiterated that he still has reservations about working with the PVV, as he felt the PVV would first have to clarify what it meant by saying that it had ‘shelved’ some of its demands. “Among other things, there are obstacles in the sphere of the rule of law,” he said, a reference to allegations that the nationalist PVV, known for its critiques of Islam as an ideology, is intent on deporting Muslim citizens once in power. Omtzigt, then, placed the ball in Wilders’ court.

Wilders emphatically denied having any such intent, since his party is “there for all Dutch citizens, be they Christians, Muslims, or non-believers.”

Plasterk met with Wilders first on Wednesday morning. During their talks, Wilders presented his wish for a coalition between his PVV, VVD, NSC, and the smaller agrarian populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), since cooperation between those parties would be a “logical center-right combination.” Were these parties to be put together, they would command an impressive majority in both houses of the Dutch parliament.

Wilders himself prefers a majority cabinet. To facilitate this, he called on all parties to:

"Go talk to each other. Remove all obstacles, look for agreement on certain policies and whether you have faith in each other."

The PVV leader emphasized that his party will take a “firm but reasonable” stance and is open to compromise. A minority cabinet is, however, not a taboo as far as Wilders is concerned. “Anything is possible,” he said.

VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz wants substantive negotiations to begin on forming a “center-right cabinet.” She repeated that her party would not join a Wilders cabinet, as the VVD is concerned with maintaining fiscal discipline as well as preserving good relations with international organizations such as NATO and the European Union. 

The PVV is critical of NATO’s continued support to Ukraine and is proposing that the Netherlands leave the EU.

[...]

https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/wilders-led-cabinet-prospects-hit-roadblock/

[Rick]

My understanding is that there are several political parties in Germany that one can vote for in the, for want of a better term, final national election. Do these same parties have elections for their candidates prior to the national elections similar to the U.S. primary elections in the Democrat and Republican parties?