Elections, Elections, Elections

[Panzermann]

Austrian snap elections called!

Mit Kurz für den sieg!

 

 

What do you expect as results? As decisive as in the UK?

 

 

 

Meanwhile Austrian newspaper Der Standard gives advice on avoiding cameras at your AirBnB host: https://derstandard.at/2000103417876/So-finden-Sie-versteckte-Kameras-in-ihrem-Airbnb

 

 

Makes me wonder why they published that?

[BansheeOne]

Media bias may be responsible for some of the Australian survey results, but for example my impression of YouGov from a European context is that they tend to overemphasize popular-to-populist moods. It looks like pollsters were wrong regardless of possible political background here, not for the first time; this typically happens when lots of prior undecided/non-voters decide to participate, often close to the election. The remarkable thing is that even exit polls seem to have been off.

 

Back from Australia to Austria - and I've already seen people mixing both up again, blaming the Strache sting on the US Deep State via the Five Eyes. I have to say the technique of video entrapment coupled with the equivalent of an October surprise before the European elections does indeed have a distinct American vibe to it. Strache himself as well as Chancellor Kurz have brought up Tal Silberstein, technically an Israeli but one of the flying squad of international election advisors immortalized in the 2005 documentary "Our Brand is Crisis" (and the damn funny 2015 fictionalization of the same name).

 

Back at the time when the video was taken in 2017, Silberstein was working for the Austrian Social Democrats with his special talent for negative campaigning. In particular, he came up with two Facebook sites dealing with conservative contender and now-chancellor Kurz. One was made up as an account linked to the right-wing FPÖ, depicting Kurz as immigration-friendly, a proxy of Angela Merkel, George Soros, etc.; the other was made to look like right-wing, too, but lauding Kurz for anti-immigration statements, suitably taken out of context and sharpened. The aim apparently being to deter centrist voters to go with him or the FPÖ.

 

The thing blew up when Silberstein was arrested in Israel on unrelated charges of bribery, forgery and money laundering, and internal documents about his Austrian employment were disclosed. In the event, the scandal contributed considerably to the Social Democrats losing the election and the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition coming to power. Of course not much imagination is needed to suggest that the video is a leftover from those activities, and possibly a late revenge for how things went then.

[2805662]

It looks like pollsters were wrong regardless of possible political background here, not for the first time; this typically happens when lots of prior undecided/non-voters decide to participate, often close to the election.

Voting in Australia is mandatory - you are fined if you dont vote. So, while this may be the norm in democracies where participation is optional, its not really applicable here.

[BansheeOne]

D'uh. I had even read that in some report on the election.

[Ivanhoe]

The thing blew up when Silberstein was arrested in Israel on unrelated charges of bribery, forgery and money laundering, and internal documents about his Austrian employment were disclosed. In the event, the scandal contributed considerably to the Social Democrats losing the election and the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition coming to power. Of course not much imagination is needed to suggest that the video is a leftover from those activities, and possibly a late revenge for how things went then.

No worries, with those bona fides he has a bright future working for the DNC.

[TonyE]

 

Austrian snap elections called!

Mit Kurz für den sieg!

 

 

What do you expect as results? As decisive as in the UK?

 

 

Hard to say, but as May is the bottom mark of any comparrison i guess it would be hard to do worse . According to polls ÖVP has been very steady with a slight upward rise for two years in a row, while SPÖ (socialists) and FPÖ (coalition partner) are bouncing up and down while exchanging a few percentage of voters between them, the other parties are just fillers on the lower end.

[BansheeOne]

Ruling alone, or with a smaller partner like the liberal Neos, is certainly what Kurz is gambling for. He has a way to go from the ÖVP's current mid-30s numbers for that; though it's not inconceivable he might push them to the low 40s at the expense of the FPÖ by presenting himself as a principled leader showing a misbehaving partner the door. A new small partner could then fill the single-digit margin to reach a majority.

[TonyE]

He is getting close to 40% btw in this pooling from yesterday:

[Markus Becker]

FPÖ minus 8, ÖVP plus what's that- 6.5, so not much change between the different camps, just inside the conservative one.

[BansheeOne]

It's a snap poll, which means it's heavily influenced by perception of last week's events. Once the shock wears off, long-held political convictions of voters will become more determining again. But it shows a possible base exists for the ÖVP to grow at the expense of the FPÖ. A lot will depend upon whether Kurz can lead up to September elections as he suggests; the Green mini-splinter group Jetzt has called for a vote of non-confidence, and it's possible both the FPÖ and Social Democrats will vote against the government despite mutual enmity. I'm not initimate with Austrian rules like with Germany's, but it appears in this case the president would have to name a caretaker government and hold quicker elections, into which Kurz wouldn't go with the bonus of an incumbent.

 

Meanwhile here's a current election.de projection of the next European Parliament, which makes some assumptions:

 

- Orban's Fidesz (projected with 15 seats) will leave the Christian Democratic EPP block where its membership is currently suspended to caucus with the British Conservatives and Polish PiS in the European Conservatives and Reformers.

 

- Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party (22 seats) will caucus with the Italian Five Star Movement in the 5SDD group since the original UKIP is among those who leave the current Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy block for the new broader right-wing European Alliance of Peoples and Nations uniting the Italian Lega, French National Rally, German AfD, Austrian FPÖ, Spanish VOX etc.

 

Despite the shifts within the conservative and far-right camp respectively, the latter can be clearly seen to be gaining at the expense of Christian and Social Democrats, particularly due to the strength of the Italian Lega (plus 20 seats) and the Brexit Party, which is projected to obliterate UKIP and improve upon its current numbers by nine seats at the same time. The National Rally also looks to gain eight seats. Another factor for the weakness of the two biggest groups is Emmanuel Macron's En Marche joining forces with the liberal ALDE block, projected to win 21 seats.

 

Projected national breakdown of the blocks.

 

[Corinthian]

We just had our midterms. The results are awful as expected.

[Ivanhoe]

Projected national breakdown of the blocks.

 

Jeezus, way too many colors. Germany's new flag;

 

 

[Ssnake]

Jeezus, way too many colors. Germany's new flag;

 

Well, EUROPEAN parliament, mind you.

[Markus Becker]

Some cynics say Greater Germany is now called European Union.

[Ssnake]

I don't see us dominating European politics. If at all, we're drifting into the British role of blocking and delaying everything, but without much control over anything because we have no strategic vision as a country about what we want to accomplish.

[Markus Becker]

Me neither and that's a good thing considering the mess we make at home. Still, it doesn't stop some from wanting to or expecting that others bow to our will in fiscal or immigration matters.

[BansheeOne]

Also, Denmark - where leftists are anti-immigration, liberals canvass on Pornhub, and the American girlfriends of conservative prime ministers' sons get caught up in laws against immigrant child brides.

 

Mette Frederiksen: the anti-immigration left leader set to win power in Denmark

Social Democrats are election frontrunners but critics say their leader has dragged the party sharply to the right

 

Richard Orange

Copenhagen

Sat 11 May 2019 15.00 BST

Last modified on Tue 14 May 2019 13.19 BST

 

She marked her return on Facebook, with a video straight out of a Quentin Tarantino film, buttoning her jacket, arranging her hair and slipping on stiletto heels to heavy metal music. “I’m ready again,” she declared to camera. “Let’s get this bus rolling.”

 

Mette Frederiksen, leader of Denmark’s opposition Social Democrats, was in hospital with food poisoning when the prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, called a general election last week, and was two days late joining the campaign.

 

But the 41-year-old has all the momentum, with her left-of-centre bloc starting with an eight percentage point lead, and few doubting that she will become Denmark’s youngest-ever prime minister after the election on 5 June.

 

“I’m super excited because we so desperately need a change of government,” said campaign volunteer Malou Astrup Clemmensen as she prepared to hand out roses on the streets of Copenhagen for Frederiksen’s campaign launch.

 

A victory for Frederiksen would be a boon for Europe’s social democrats as they gaze across the continent at a dispiriting political landscape. But it would not be without controversy, for under Frederiksen the party has been ruthlessly reshaped: dragged to the left economically – and sharply to the right on immigration.

 

“For me, it is becoming increasingly clear that the price of unregulated globalisation, mass immigration and the free movement of labour is paid for by the lower classes,” she said in a recent biography.

 

Denmark’s current right-wing coalition government last year enacted the most anti-immigration legislation in Danish history and, rather than position her party in stark opposition, Frederikson has embraced much of it.

 

Under her leadership, the SD have called for a cap on “non-western immigrants”, for asylum seekers to be expelled to a reception centre in North Africa, and for all immigrants to be forced to work 37 hours a week in exchange for benefits.

 

She has reached out to the populist Danish People’s party (DPP), doing a series of joint interviews with its leader, Kristian Thulesen Dahl, and discussing cooperating with them in government.

 

But it is the government policies her party has supported or failed to oppose which have been most alarming for her allies in the left-of-centre red bloc. The Social Democrats voted in favour of a law allowing jewellery to be stripped from refugees, and a burqa and niqab ban, and abstained rather than voted against a law on mandatory handshakes irrespective of religious sentiment at citizenship ceremonies, and a plan to house criminal asylum seekers on an island used for researching contagious animal diseases. In February, she backed what the DPP has branded a “paradigm shift” – a push to make repatriation, rather than integration, the goal of asylum policy.

 

“I find it odd that it’s possible to make such a shift, not just in your policy but also in your fundamental values,” Morton Østergaard, leader of the centrist Social Liberal party, told the Observer. “What’s different in Denmark is that we’re seeing parties coming out of a Liberal or Social Democrat value base eating into national conservatism in a race-to-the-bottom contest, because they’ve decided that the marginal voter can’t get tough enough on immigrants.”

 

Many believe her party’s new populist profile is a pure power play. The Danish People’s party has slipped from 21% in the 2015 elections to below 13%, according to a poll of polls by the Berlingske newspaper.

 

An internal Social Democrat survey of the party’s core voters carried out last autumn found that 37% of loyal Social Democrat voters thought immigration policy was too lax. And this was after three years of the most anti-immigration government in Danish history.

 

Frederiksen has dealt harshly with any internal dissent. When her party colleague Mette Gjerskov, a former minister, vociferously opposed the burqa ban, a rival candidate for her seat came forward at the same time as the local Social Democrat mayor suggested it might be time to change MP. Gjerskov fended off the challenge, but was then fired as the party’s international development spokesman.

 

“I was aware that shifting the position in the party would take a lot, but I knew that I had to win that fight,” Frederiksen said in the biography. “Normally, I would seek to compromise, but not on immigration policy.”

 

[...]

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/11/denmark-election-matte-frederiksen-leftwing-immigration

 

Sidse Babett Knudsen was unavailable for comment.

 

Danish politician takes out election ad on porn site

 

Ritzau/The Local

news@thelocal.dk
@thelocaldenmark

13 May 2019

17:03 CEST+02:00

MP Joachim B. Olsen of the Liberal Alliance party has chosen an unconventional platform on which to reach out to voters.

Olsen has paid for advertising space on pornography website Pornhub using a slogan which plays on a Danish slang word for masturbation.

 

The ad, which reads “Når du er færdig med at gokke, så stem på Jokke”, rhymes the word with a diminutive of Olsen’s first name, while encouraging users of the adult site to use their vote. The text is placed next to a picture of Olsen and his party's name and logo.

 

Olsen, an MP with Liberal Alliance, a junior coalition partner in the current government, confirmed to both Ritzau and Politiken that the ad was genuine.

 

“I think this is a very funny ad and I hope people will have a good laugh. This general election seems like it could do with a laugh,” Olsen said.

 

The ad will be shown to users who access the website from Denmark.

 

“I came up with the idea when we were brainstorming about how to plan our campaign. And I thought, ‘well, half of the internet is porn’,” Olsen said.

 

“(Adult websites) are a place where many Danes go, whether you like it or not. So I thought they’d laugh when they saw an ad like this,” he said.

 

Like with other ads, Olsen’s election slogan can be targeted to be seen by people who click on specific categories.

 

“We have placed ourselves at the soft end. We have tried to reach the area where most Danes are,” Olsen told Ritzau.

 

The libertarian politician was keen to point out that only a small amount of his campaign budget had been spent on the ads, but that he believed it was money well spent.

 

“I am convinced that a very, very broad cross-section of Danes look at these sites,” he said.

 

“But I do think there should be a bit of fun and games in an election,” he added.

 

[...]

 

https://www.thelocal.dk/20190513/danish-politician-takes-out-election-ad-on-porn-site

 

I think that slogan kinda translates to "If you're done fappin', go vote for Jacky".

 

Child-Bride Law Turns Into Danish Election Issue as PM's Son Hit

By Frances Schwartzkopff

20. Mai 2019, 08:19 MESZ

Updated on 20. Mai 2019, 16:14 MESZ

 

The son of Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has been tripped up by the country’s strict immigration laws, which will force his Harvard-educated American girlfriend to leave Denmark by the end of this month.

 

The development thrusts immigration policy into the spotlight as Danes prepare to vote in national elections on June 5. Rasmussen, 55, leads a center-right minority coalition that rules with the support of the anti-immigration Danish People’s Party. Last week, he stunned the country’s political establishment by announcing he would rather abandon some of his traditional supporters on the far right than let their “extreme opinions” influence his politics.

 

In a debate broadcast by TV2 on Sunday evening, Rasmussen said that his 29-year-old son, Bergur, is being forced to split temporarily with his girlfriend, because she’s too young to seek residence under Danish immigration laws.

The young woman, whose name and precise age weren’t revealed, is under 24 and therefore not eligible to remain in Denmark following the 2002 passage of a law that was intended to stop residents, particularly from non-Western countries, from bringing in child brides. It’s since become a key plank in the country’s broader efforts to stem immigration. A student at Harvard University, she’s been in Denmark as part of her studies, Rasmussen said.

 

The prime minister said he stands behind the rule and tougher immigration generally. But he also criticized the lack of flexibility in the current immigration laws, particularly as Danish businesses face a labor shortage and are desperate for highly educated immigrants. “It’s to wonder at, that we live in a country that has no place for her,” Rasmussen said.

In response, Mette Frederiksen, head of the opposition Social Democrats, said the rule carries “a price” and rejected efforts to soften it. Most polls show Frederiksen, who has embraced tough immigration policies since taking over her party, will win next month’s election.

 

[...]

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-20/harvard-girlfriend-of-danish-pm-s-son-hit-by-immigration-curbs

 

I was always suspicious of those USians with their Common Law which means girls can be married at age 12 in some states.

Edited May 22, 2019 by BansheeOne

[Simon Tan]

Why is it a surprise that the barbarians are dividing Rome? That someone from Bangladesh goes to Libya to sneak into Europe tells you they have means and intent. Anyone who regards thisxas legitimate migration is your enemy and deserves to be in Bangladesh.

[Markus Becker]

A German liberal weekly has decuded who entrapped Strache and why.

 

Not the Russian FSB because the FPÖ ist pro Russian. All European intelligence agencies are too inept to do this, the Americans are too busy in the Middle East, so it was the Joooz.

 

https://www.cicero.de/aussenpolitik/heinz-christian-strache-video-johannes-gudenus-ibiza-israel-mossad

 

They have the means and the motives to release it right now. One, the evil populist right wingers aresuch a terrible danger to the European Jews and two, if they win, they'd steer the EU away from it's pro Israel course.

 

I wonder if the author believes that or if he believes someone else does.

[BansheeOne]

The author is former BND vice president Rudolf Adam, who may be afflicted by a professional hammer-nail view. He is being criticized by leftist commentators, along with his former boss August Hanning and controversial ex-BfV head Hans-Georg Maaßen, for supporting the FPÖ with their suggestions, on the no-less blinkered grounds that those damn intelligence types are all right-wingers anyway and trying to back up the narrative of Strache as the victim of entrapment by sinister powers.

 

A possible Israeli connection is of course there via the aforementioned 2017 Silberstein affair. I just don't necessarily subscribe to the opinion that the professional setup of the sting points to a state actor, or that if made by a non-state actor, it was passed on and played to media via a government entity. People obviously knew of it before its release - again, Jan Böhmermann has been hinting heavily at it. Personal-political domestic grudges may be all it takes to explain how this emerged.

 

Also, India.

 

India election results 2019: Narendra Modi takes commanding lead

1 minute ago

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's governing party has taken a decisive lead as votes are counted in the country's huge general election.

 

The alliance led by his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is ahead in well over 300 seats and Mr Modi is on course to extend his majority.

 

Over 600 million people voted in a marathon six-week long process.

 

Mr Modi was up against the main opposition Congress party and powerful regional rivals across the country.

 

Counting began at 08:00 local time (02:30 GMT) when voting ended on Sunday.

 

This election has been viewed as a referendum on Mr Modi, a polarising figure adored by many but also blamed for increasing divisions in India.

 

[...]

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48347081

[Markus Becker]

So be it but what set me off was the absurd statement that is EU pursues a friendly policy towards Israel. That's less filter bubble and more alternate reality he's living in.

[Panzermann]

Awesome. Oe of the big promises of Modi the first time around was cleaning the Ganges river. And building little Singapore like cities as seeds for development. Obviously has not happened. And probably never will. But as long as Modi can shout "India stronk!" everything is fine and the people vote for him.

 

 

---

 

So be it but what set me off was the absurd statement that is EU pursues a friendly policy towards Israel. That's less filter bubble and more alternate reality he's living in.

 

pot, kettle, black?

Edited May 24, 2019 by Panzermann

[Markus Becker]

Honey, I Shrunk the Parties!

 

CDU down, SPD way down, Left down - so far so good. Liberals, AfD but also Greens are up. The latter the most. Well, you can't have it all.

[Panzermann]

Honey, I Shrunk the Parties!

 

CDU down, SPD way down, Left down - so far so good. Liberals, AfD but also Greens are up. The latter the most. Well, you can't have it all.

 

Many voters move from SPD->Greens. Because the Greens are so upstanding in their principles.

 

 

Is there anywhere an all european overview? I wanted to switch on TV and they normally do this, but my TV set is on strike and claims no reception. I guess it protests against the neglect.

[Panzermann]

wikipedia to the rescue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election#Results

 

The groupnames are preliminary as they parlaimaentary groups are formed after the election:

Preliminary 2019 partial results by political family 2019 ^[182]

Trend Seats Comment

Conservative like EPP 99 Counting 32 seats in Germany and 10 in Romania

Social-democrat like PES/Labour 78 Counting 15 seats in Germany and 11 in Romania

Ecologist & regionalists like PEG 45 Counting 25 seats in Germany and 12 in France

Liberals and democrats like ALDE 76 Counting 22 seats in Poland and 21 in France

Radical left like GUE/NGL 30 Counting 9 in Greece and 6 in France

Far right 45 Counting 22 seats in France and 11 in Germany

Nationalist & souverainist right 30 Counting 23 seats in Poland and 3 in the Netherlands

Others 13

Expected results 334

Total 751

 

edit: damn when i pasted it the table looked fine. Okay rearranging by hand.

 

 

Some countries really take their time counting.

 

In France the Rassemblement National (formerly Front N.) has gotten more seats than Macrons party En Marche. Well I guess when you are shooting on your citizens they do not like that.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Panzermann