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Elections, Elections, Elections


BansheeOne

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It seems I was wrong, I thought the new government in Greece would last a couple of months. Bank shares have lost 40% of their value in a few days. Stock exchange is down by 9% today. First bank will probably go under next week. Unless Germany pays the bill again. I am praying they don't.

 

Putin must be loving it.

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Well, Netanyahu's panic mode once he realized he was leading the complete wrong campaign and about to lose to a guy who by all accounts has the charisma of a wet slice of bread seems to have paid off. I mean, he was flip-flopping on the issue of a Palestinian state with Kerryesque frequency, and his last statements that there was a conspiracy by "foreign powers" with domestic media to prevent his victory were worthy of Erdogan. :D

 

I suspect the issue of ballooning living cost and poverty is not going to go away anytime soon though, and at least continue to seriously compete with national security as it is affecting people much more in their daily lifes than, say, scenarios of a nuclear Iran. Yesh Atid took a hit compared to the last elections of course since they couldn't deliver on any campaign promises, but the topic seems to have been taken up by the center-left in general.

 

The most interesting thing to me is the considerable success of the United Arab List as third-biggest power in the Knesset. You could have expected a bit of that when they joined in response to establishment of the 3.25-percent threshold which some say was designed to keep the previous small Arab parties out of parliament, but comments here are that they really managed to bring out the Arab vote for the first time. Which could be construed to argue that the Arab Israelis have now embraced the system rather than sulking that they can't change anything anyway.

 

I remain in awe of the volatility of Israeli politics, even by Mediterranean standards. Everybody who gets pissed with his party (apparently mostly over personal relationships) forms a new one and typically even succeeds in entering the Knesset at the next premature election. :D

 

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This came as a surprise to everyone. I'm most puzzled that the liberal incumbent ticked all the boxes about standing up to the Russian threat etc., while his conservative challenger campaigned on winding back austerity measures like increasing pension age to 67, which supposedly isn't even in his power. As usual, it's probably more complicated than that.

 

World | Sun May 24, 2015 6:24pm EDT

Polish president concedes election defeat to conservative challenger
WARSAW | By Pawel Sobczak and Agnieszka Barteczko

 

Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski conceded defeat to conservative challenger Andrzej Duda in Sunday's presidential election, a result that will set alarm bells ringing for the government, which faces its own election race later this year.

 

Komorowski had originally been seen as a shoo-in for another term in office, and his defeat reflected a desire among voters for new faces, and a sense that Poland's new-found prosperity was not being shared out equally.

 

The outgoing president, an ally of Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz, announced he was conceding defeat after an exit poll showed he had won 47 percent to 53 percent for Duda. Official results have not yet been released.

 

"I respect your choice," Komorowski told a gathering of supporters. "I wish my challenger a successful presidency."

 

The victory for 43-year-old Duda marks the first major electoral win in almost a decade for his party, the opposition Law and Justice party. It is close to the Catholic church, socially conservative, and markets see it as less business-friendly than the governing Civic Platform.

 

Poland's zloty currency was down 1 percent against the euro after the exit poll was released, a sign some investors are already expecting a change in government.

 

In Poland, the prime minister leads the government but the president is head of the armed forces, has a say in foreign policy and in the passage of legislation, and also controls who heads the central bank.

 

Duda served as legal adviser to former conservative President Lech Kaczynski, was a deputy justice minister, a member of the Polish parliament, and is now a member of the European parliament.

 

He has yet to spell out explicitly how he will use his new powers, but he could promote a more skeptical approach to the European Union, and block socially liberal initiatives such as a proposed law that would support in-vitro fertilization.

 

Beata Szydlo, deputy head of Law and Justice said of Duda's plans once in office: "He realizes that he will have to cooperate with the government, but this is a president who listens to all Poles. He will not sign bills that are directed against them."

 

Duda's win throws down a gauntlet to the center-right Civic Platform party, which has for years dominated the political landscape and controls the longest-serving government in Poland's post-Communist history.

 

Eight years in power, the party has presided over rapid economic growth and rising salaries in eastern Europe's biggest economy.

 

But many Poles feel their country's vaunted "economic miracle" has passed them by.

 

"Economic growth? For the average citizen it is hardly perceptible," said Zbigniew Pela, 53, a railway worker who was voting for Duda on Sunday. "They create good living conditions for some social groups, who have their businesses, and not for ordinary citizens."

 

Foreign Minister Grzegorz Schetyna said Sunday's result was a serious warning for Civic Platform. "We have to ask ourselves difficult questions ahead of the next elections," he told public broadcaster TVP Info.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/24/us-poland-election-idUSKBN0O900A20150524

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"Economic growth? For the average citizen it is hardly perceptible,"

 

Are you guys using the Obama economic team as your model? :lol:

Over here, it's been that way for a long time. Here in DK the societal structures pretty much guarantee that any growth will be anemic. I'm pretty sure if you scratch the paint job on Team Obama's economic model, it will say "Made in the EU" underneath.

 

--

Soren

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I'm most puzzled that the liberal incumbent ticked all the boxes about standing up to the Russian threat etc., while his conservative challenger campaigned on winding back austerity measures like increasing pension age to 67, which supposedly isn't even in his power. As usual, it's probably more complicated than that.

 

Well, it seems to be a successful concept as the Polish Conservatives also won parliamentary elections yesterday after campaigning for more benefits, better healthcare and the pension age issue. Though I would guess the refugee topic also had something to do with this.

 

Nationalist Party Wins Poland’s Election

Law and Justice vows to raise welfare and minimum wages and be more assertive in the European Union
By MARTIN M. SOBCZYK
Oct. 26, 2015 5:34 a.m. ET
WARSAW—Poland’s nationalist opposition Law and Justice party has won parliamentary elections on Sunday and looks likely to have enough votes to govern on its own, after promising to spend more on welfare, focus on traditional Catholic values and take a more assertive view within the European Union.
The party looks likely to win 232 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, the lower house of Parliament, according to polling data from 90% of voting precincts compiles by Ipsos pollsters. Its lead over the outgoing ruling coalition had narrowed by Monday morning compared with initial estimates giving its rival, the center-right Civic Platform party, 137 seats, the poll showed.
The election ended the eight-year rule of the Civic Platform party and its junior agrarian ally, a period of uninterrupted economic growth and good relations with Germany but marred by internal struggles and recent scandals within the ruling camp.
Law and Justice rode a wave of popular discontent over low wages and benefits in Poland, promising to raise the minimum wage and increase welfare spending. It also said it would be a more assertive voice within the EU and oppose Germany’s plan for a resettlement of migrants.
The incoming government will be able to rely on support from President Andrzej Duda, the Law and Justice candidate for president who won office in May.
Even if the Law and Justice party gets fewer than 231 seats in the Sejm, it should be able to build a government and rule with support from its antiestablishment ally, Kukiz 15, created by a former rock star, which received 8.7% of the vote and will get 42 seats, according to the newest poll.
Two additional parties have won seats in parliament and are expected to oppose the incoming government.
If the final official results, which are expected on Tuesday, confirm the exit poll data, it will be the first time in decades Poland’s parliament doesn’t have any left-leaning parties in it. The United Left alliance, which included heirs to Poland’s communist party, got too little support to be given seats in the Sejm.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/nationalist-party-wins-polands-election-1445852043

 

Meanwhile in Argentina, the race for succession of Crazy Cristy turns out to be unexpectedly tight.

 

World | Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:31am EDT Related: WORLD, ARGENTINA

Argentine opposition challenger Macri forces run-off in tight election
BUENOS AIRES | BY HUGH BRONSTEIN AND RICHARD LOUGH
Conservative opposition candidate Mauricio Macri stunned Argentina's ruling party with an unexpectedly strong showing in the presidential election on Sunday, forcing a run-off vote next month, preliminary results showed.
Daniel Scioli, backed by outgoing leftist President Cristina Fernandez, had a big lead in pre-election opinion polls but the results on Sunday showed the two men in a tight race with everything to play for in the run-off.
With returns in from almost 97 percent of polling stations, Scioli had 36.8 percent support while Macri had 34.4 percent.
"What happened today will change politics in this country," Macri, the pro-business mayor of Buenos Aires, told thousands of jubilant supporters inside his campaign headquarters.
Scioli could extend his lead as the last remaining votes come in but it was still a disappointing night for him and he looks vulnerable in the run-off election on Nov. 22.
The outcome of the election will shape how the South American country tackles its economic woes, including high inflation, a central bank running precariously low on dollars and a sovereign debt default.
Scioli is running on a platform of "gradual change" and has promised to maintain popular welfare programs while Macri advocates moving quickly to open up the economy.
Stung by Macri's showing, Scioli launched an unusually blunt attack on his rival on Sunday night, saying he would want to scrap popular welfare policies like one that gives benefits to mothers for each of their children.
"We have two very different visions," Scioli said.
The first-round results were met with stunned silence at Scioli's headquarters, where supporters earlier celebrated what they expected to be a convincing lead or even outright victory.
"I would love to be able to tell you that we will able to come back in the second round, but I don't know," said one supporter.
To avoid a run-off, Scioli had needed 45 percent support on Sunday, or 40 percent with a 10 percentage point lead over his nearest rival. In the end, he fell far short.
'TOTALLY UNEXPECTED'
"The polls were totally wrong. This is totally unexpected," said political analyst Ignacio Labaqui. "An eventual Scioli victory, which was the consensus forecast, is clearly at stake."
In a speech before thousands of party militants, Scioli reached out to swing voters for their support.
"United together we will triumph," Scioli told voters in a rallying call. "I call upon the undecided and independent voters to join this cause."
Scioli will seek to exploit a perception among many voters that Macri, the son of a construction magnate, would restore the kind of right-wing policies widely blamed for triggering a deep economic crisis in 2001-2002, when millions fell into poverty.
In third place on Sunday was moderate lawmaker Sergio Massa, a former Fernandez cabinet chief who split from her party in 2013. He won about 21.3 percent support and the race for his voters will start on Monday.
While some will find Macri's shock therapy proposals hard to stomach, others believe Scioli will be unable or unwilling to end Fernandez's divisive and populist policies.
Scioli, a former powerboat champion who is governor of Buenos Aires province, draws much of his support from poorer Argentines who credit Fernandez with strengthening Argentina's social safety net.
Fernandez was barred by law from seeking a third consecutive term, but could return as a presidential candidate in 2019.
Macri has vowed to start dismantling her protectionist currency and trade controls on his first day in office if he wins. Fernandez will hand over to her successor on Dec. 10.
Macri is seen by Wall Street investors as the candidate most likely to negotiate with a group of "holdout" hedge funds whose suit over bonds defaulted on by Argentina in 2002 caused a new and ongoing default last year.
"It’s a shocking result and markets will likely react positively," Alejo Costa of local investment bank Puente said of the first-round vote. "For U.S. dollar bonds, the market will reassign chances of a holdout resolution under a potential Macri administration."
Partial results also suggested the ruling Front for Victory party lost clout in the lower chamber of Congress, making it less of an obstacle to a debt deal if Macri prevails in November.
In another damaging blow to the ruling party, Macri's alliance won the gubernatorial election in Buenos Aires province, Argentina's most populous, where Fernandez had hoped to install her cabinet chief Anibal Fernandez.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0SJ04520151026

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Of course, they will send their minions to storm Russian embassy, Tehran way.

 

:D

 

I don't think the Polish stance vs. Russia is much affected by which party is in government. From what I've seen, foreign policy also didn't play much of a role in the campaign. German press of course have their hair on fire due to the record of PiS head Jaroslav Kaczynski from back when he and his twin brother Lech were running the country on anti-EU and particularly anti-German sentiment, and suggest he will be pulling the strings no matter who is president/prime minister under him; but even then it is pointed out that Poland has changed over the last economically prosperous decade within the EU, and so they hope has the PiS, though the toning down of their rethoric in the campaign may have been tactical.

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Of course, they will send their minions to storm Russian embassy, Tehran way.

 

:D

 

I don't think the Polish stance vs. Russia is much affected by which party is in government. From what I've seen, foreign policy also didn't play much of a role in the campaign. German press of course have their hair on fire due to the record of PiS head Jaroslav Kaczynski from back when he and his twin brother Lech were running the country on anti-EU and particularly anti-German sentiment, and suggest he will be pulling the strings no matter who is president/prime minister under him; but even then it is pointed out that Poland has changed over the last economically prosperous decade within the EU, and so they hope has the PiS, though the toning down of their rethoric in the campaign may have been tactical.

 

Ties with Russia will probably be worse, not that they were good before. But that's fine, given Russia's actions.

 

As for Germany, it's our most important trading partner and it will remain so. Going to war for the sake of it won't take place, but more assertiveness is to be expected. Berlin can't count on almost automatic support for whatever it wants, which IMHO should be a normal situation.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3291477/Star-Wars-villain-Emperor-Palpatine-voted-Ukrainian-city-council-stunned-councillor-campaigned-joke-asks-voters-s-wrong-you.html

 

A candidate who dresses as Star Wars villain Emperor Palpatine has been voted on to a Ukrainian city council despite standing as a joke.

 

According to fellow candidate Aleksandr Borovik, the man posing as Sheev Palpatine, the Emperor of the Galactic Empire, won a place on Odessa City Council, in the south west of the country.

 

It comes after the local electoral commission revealed that 48 candidates from the Darth Vader Block political party were registered to stand in the local election.

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I for one welcome our alien overlords and would volunteer to help design better exhaust vents for certain ... ambitious space station projects.

 

:lol:

 

Oh, and I forgot to add:

 

Erections, Erections, Erections.

 

Thank you engrish (yes I remember I posted this before, but still....).

 

We'rr be having oul own nationar erections next yeal.

Edited by Corinthian
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You haven't seen funny until you've seen your high school Japanese Teacher (all of 5 feet of her) asking the class about "erection day" on the usual tuesday in november...

 

I just realized, Engrish and Firefly Chinese Curses are so perfect together. "Erections on 神聖的睾丸" (translation: http://www.therobotsvoice.com/2010/11/fireflys_15_best_uses_of_chinese_profanity.php/14) Ferpekt!

Edited by Corinthian
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Taiwan has their presidential election next year in January as well.

 

Japan will have a National Diet election for the upper house (House of Councillors 参議院) in the summer 2016. Half the seats (121 of 242) are up for change. Upper house elections happen every 3 years for half the seats. It'll be the first national election after the passing of the security bills so the LDP may lose a lot of seats. The negative popularity effect of the security bills passing can of course be dampened, or heightened, by lots of factors until then. The upper house is generally weaker than the lower house (House of Representatives 衆議院). The next lower house election is 2018. They happen every 4 years, with the last being 2014, and all seats are up for change.

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