Elections, Elections, Elections

[BansheeOne]

And now for something completely different.

 

EU parliament's centrist coalition set to lose majority, poll finds

 

European People’s party and Socialists & Democrats have run parliament for 40 years

 

Jennifer Rankin

in Brussels

 

Mon 18 Feb 2019 13.58 GMT

 

The “grand coalition” of centre-right and centre-left that has run the European parliament for 40 years is set to lose its majority for the first time following elections in May, according to the institution’s internal forecasts.

 

The centre-right European People’s party and centre-left Socialists & Democrats have long called the shots in the EU parliament, but polls suggest the two big groups will win only 45% of seats, down from 53%.

 

The far-right and other rightwing Eurosceptic groups are likely to make gains, although pro-EU parties will still command a majority in the parliament once Liberal and Greens seats are counted.

 

The latest forecast is based on the assumption the UK will leave the EU on time. If the British government were to be granted a Brexit extension longer than three months, EU officials say the UK would have to be represented in the parliament.

 

Under the forecast released on Monday, the two largest political groups would fall below 50% for the first time, according to the parliament’s chief spokesman, Jaume Duch Guillot. The European parliament’s forecast is based on independent national polls and data has been aggregated by Kantar Public.

 

In a statement, the EU parliament said the May elections were “the most important in parliament’s history”, citing Brexit and the “political context”, an allusion to political upheaval across the EU in which non-established parties across the spectrum have made electoral breakthroughs.

 

But fears of anti-EU or Eurosceptic parties taking over the commanding heights of the parliament are far-fetched, according to the poll. The three Eurosceptic rightwing groups, spanning from moderate conservatives to the far right, would take more than one-fifth of the seats (21.5%).

 

The far-right group Europe of Nations and Freedom, which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Matteo Salvini’s League party, is set to increase its share of seats from 5% to8%.

 

The Eurosceptic group European Conservatives and Reformists, which was created by David Cameron, is also forecast to lose ground, although it could be the fourth-largest group in the parliament despite the departure of British MEPs.

 

Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy, led by Nigel Farage, is on course for a slight increase in seats, despite the departure of Ukip MEPs. A number of Ukip MEPs, including Farage, have quit the party, although they remain part of the EFDD group.

 

The centre-left will be hit hard by the loss of British Labour MEPs, who make up one of the largest national delegations in the Socialist group.

 

Polls suggest the Liberals are on course for a resurgence, with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) group on course to regain its place as the parliament’s third largest bloc, taking 11% of seats up from 9%.

 

The forecast may understate Liberal gains, as the ALDE numbers exclude MEPs standing for Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche, who are counted in the category “others”. Allies of the French president have said he will join forces with the ALDE group, which is led by the former Belgian prime minister and outspoken federalist Guy Verhofstadt.

 

Talk of a Green wave looks overblown, according to this poll, with Green MEPs set to take a slightly smaller share of seats, 6.4% compared with 6.9%. The reduction comes in spite of spectacular gains for the Greens in Germany and in Belgium’s local elections.

 

[...]

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/18/eu-parliaments-centrist-coalition-set-to-lose-majority-poll-finds-european-people-party-socialists-democrats

[Panzermann]

UKIP leaving the european parliament as all the other brits is not so clear at the moment. With Brexit boondoggling as it does I can see them having to take part in the elections.

 

 

 

Just as a reminder, tell your MEPs that you are not going to vote for them and you are telling all your friends, if they vote for articles 13 and 11. Which will hit the centrist coalition the hardest and well desreved.

[BansheeOne]

I frankly don't care about the "The sky is falling and it has written Fuck You on its upper side, the EU is introducing capital punishment by chlorinated chicken for making internet memes!!!!!1111!!!" hype over Article 13, at all.

[Markus Becker]

Just wait until they set the filters to preempt hate speech and fake news to be posted.

[Panzermann]

Just wait until they set the filters to preempt hate speech and fake news to be posted.

 

The filters won't work most probably, but it puts each and every platform onthe internet with one foot into a court trial over breaking the article. Also it keeps small new competitors out, because doesn't matter how small your little website is, after three years you have to put up some form of filtering. Which is going to kill most small platforms, because they simply cannot afford to screen everything. Your littel forum gone. Your little CC imgage sharing website that barely comes out with a plus has to be shut down for the costs etc. etc. No wonder that e.g. Bertelsmann and other big media corps are also lobbying against it, because it is so squishy and allencompassingly written it is going to hurt them too.

 

 

Also who is going to control these filters? What about false positives? And really to be absolutely sure not to come in conflict, you would have to have like a complete backup of all copyrightes works to compare each upload to. Not even google could do that.

 

 

 

And the biggest mouth for these articles Voss has either no bloody clue what he is talking about or outright lying. Take your pick.

[Ssnake]

Clueless is the safe bet.

[BansheeOne]

BTW, my 19-month-old niece just got an official letter from the local election board soliciting for poll station volunteers in May.

[Leo Niehorster]

BTW, my 19-month-old niece just got an official letter from the local election board soliciting for poll station volunteers in May.

Frank's ?

[BansheeOne]

Nope, Banshee Two Charlie. Frank is only getting married in July (well, lack of same didn't prevent Banshees Five Alpha and Bravo to produce their first before, of course).

[Panzermann]

BTW, my 19-month-old niece just got an official letter from the local election board soliciting for poll station volunteers in May.

get them early while still impressionable.

[DB]

There is a simple solution for Article 13, and that's to drop Germany into the same bucket that half the US internet news agencies have already done for the whole EU over GDPR.

 

Germany doesn't need the internet, after all.

 

Edit: Erm... still thinking about German over-reach there. I suppose I mean "if they already haven't done it for the whole of the EU due to GDPR already"

Edited February 27, 2019 by DB

[BansheeOne]

This might possibly have an impact on the outcome of the EP elections. As of today, five Christian Democratic parties from four EU member states have filed for the expulsion of Viktor Orban's Fidesz from the European People's Party group, nearing the required threshold of seven from five.

 

Europe must decide what to do about Hungary’s Viktor Orbán

Europe Letter: Support builds for Fidesz’s expulsion from the European People’s Party

 

about 20 hours ago

Updated: about 3 hours ago

 

Patrick Smyth Brussels

When Hungarians demonstrated recently in Germany against their own government one of the placards touched a local sore point: “Weber, where is your red line?”

The EU-wide campaign of Bavarian MEP Manfred Weber to be nominated for the presidency of the European Commission on behalf of the European People’s Party (EPP) involves the unfortunate embrace of one of the party’s less democratic members – Hungary’s Victor Orbán, a champion of what he boasts euphemistically is its “illiberal democracy”.

In September the European Parliament triggered the article 7 treaty procedure against Hungary for democratic governance and human-rights violations. And, to the intense embarrassment of the EPP, Orbán has becoming a rallying point throughout the EU for the anti-immigrant right – he recently spoke of his hope that the next European Parliament will be dominated by anti-immigration parties.

His party Fidesz’s continued membership of the EPP is now being called into serious question. A question that, as the placards point out, Weber has so far evaded.

Last week Orbán opened up a new front, a taxpayer-funded poster campaign against EU Commission president – and EPP colleague – Jean-Claude Juncker. The campaign associates Juncker with Orbán’s devil incarnate, billionaire philanthropist George Soros.

“You have the right to know what Brussels is planning to do,” the poster says, accusing both men of wanting to undermine “member states’ rights to protect their own borders …”.

The 12 seats that Fidesz is likely to command in the European Parliament are clearly important to the EPP, which is already expected to lose seats. Even in combination with the Socialists & Democrats, they will be some way short of a majority.

“Pragmatists” in the EPP have been loath to support Fidesz’s expulsion. But now more voices are being raised and well-placed sources believe a crunch moment may soon be at hand.

Last week Sweden’s Moderate Party said it would push for the expulsion. Sara Skyttedal, party-lead candidate in the European elections, said “there must be a community of values around the basic principles of a democratic rule of law,” and added: “We see that Fidesz can no longer be said to fulfil this fully.”

A Moderate Party MEP, Gunnar Hökmark, a longtime advocate for excluding Fidesz, wrote in an email to Weber and all EPP MEPs that Orbán’s campaign “is an attack that could just as well have been initiated by [French far-right leader Marine] Le Pen or by [Russian president Vladimir] Putin.”

And Juncker made clear his support for such a move. “There is no overlap at all between Orbán and myself,” he said. “I believe his place is not in the European People’s Party.” Luxembourg party, the CSV, said it would raise the issue at the EPP conference in March.

According to EPP rules, the suspension or exclusion of a member party can be triggered by “seven ordinary or associated member parties from five different countries”.

[...]

To the suggestion that Fidesz is a “cuckoo” in the EPP nest comes the familiar pot-calling-kettle-black retort that there “are a few cuckoos in other nests”. The Socialists, for one, embrace the Romanian governing party, which is up to its neck in corruption and rule-of-law violations.

Others fear that were Orbán to leave the EPP and join the right-wing populist camp, the whole European election campaign would become a pro- versus anti-European affair. Arguably, it has already become that, but an Orbán association with the populists would certainly strengthen them.

[...]

 

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/europe-must-decide-what-to-do-about-hungary-s-viktor-orb%C3%A1n-1.3808651

[carrierlost]

With paper voting held yesterday (online voting finished on Wednesday) Estonian elections drew to a close. Current prime ministers Centre party lost to Reform party who got biggest share of seats. Likely to be a coalition between Reform + Isamaa + Social democrats. Free party and Eesti 200 were not able to cross 5% threshold, so it will be 5 parties this time.
,


More details here: https://news.err.ee/916323/updated-live-results-by-party-district-mandates-candidates

 

 

[Panzermann]

what are those politcal parties roughly put on the left-right spectrum? some I get because of the loanwords:

 

Reformierakond -> reform Party I guess centrist?)

Konservatiivne -> conservative right wing

sotsiaaldemokraatlik -> social-democrats left of centre

 

 

But the others I am at a loss.

[carrierlost]

what are those politcal parties roughly put on the left-right spectrum? some I get because of the loanwords:

 

Reformierakond -> reform Party I guess centrist?)

Konservatiivne -> conservative right wing

sotsiaaldemokraatlik -> social-democrats left of centre

 

 

But the others I am at a loss.

 

Sotsiaaldemokraadid - "Social Democrats", pro-EU, left on economy

Keskerakond - "Centre party", mostly liberal on values, has support of Russian speaking Estonian citizens, centre-left on economy,

Reformierakond - "Reform party", liberal on values, pro-EU, right on economy,

Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (EKRE) - "Conservative peoples party", conservative on values, very nationalistic, populist/right on ecomony

Isamaa - "Fatherland" - conservative on values, nationalist, right on economy

[BansheeOne]

Projection for European Parliament elections by election.de:

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by BansheeOne

[Markus Becker]

This might possibly have an impact on the outcome of the EP elections. As of today, five Christian Democratic parties from four EU member states have filed for the expulsion of Viktor Orban's Fidesz from the European People's Party group, nearing the required threshold of seven from five.

 

 

 

And that is most likely being called of as reporters predicted a few days ago. His party is needed to ensure the EPP becomes the largest faction.

 

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article190301637/Ungarns-Ministerpraesident-Nuetzliche-Idioten-Orban-entschuldigt-sich-bei-EVP-Parteien.html

[BansheeOne]

Date 16.03.2019

 

Slovakia: Government critic Zuzana Caputova wins first round in presidential vote

 

Anti-corruption campaigner Zuzana Caputova will face off with the ruling party candidate in a presidential runoff. It's the first vote in Slovakia since the murder of reporter Jan Kuciak and anti-government protests.

 

Zuzana Caputova, a vocal government critic, has won the first round of Slovakia's presidential election.

 

With results from 99.4 percent of polling stations counted, the 45-year-old was in pole position with 40.5 percent of votes, far ahead of her strongest challenger, Maros Sefcovic.

 

Sefcovic, a 52-year-old career diplomat and European Commission vice president backed by the ruling Smer-Social Democracy party, had just 18.7 percent of the vote.

 

As no single candidate won a majority on Saturday, a runoff will be held between Caputova and Sefcovic on March 30.

 

Endorsed by outgoing President Andrej Kiska, who did not seek re-election, Caputova has promised to end what she calls the capture of the state "by people pulling strings from behind," while maintaining the course of Slovakia's foreign policy. If elected, Caputova would be the country's first female president.

 

It's the first vote held since the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee last February and the ensuing protests, which dealt a blow to the political establishment.

 

"I see a strong call for change in this election following the tragic events last spring and a very strong public reaction," Caputova told reporters as she cast her ballot in her hometown, Pezinok. "We stand on a crossroads between the loss and renewal of public trust, also in terms of Slovakia's foreign policy orientation."

 

Government critic

 

Caputova was among tens of thousands of protesters who took to the streets after the killings, which shocked the nation and raised fears about media freedom and political corruption.

 

Kuciak and his fiancee, Martina Kusnirova, were shot to death in February 2018 just before he was due to publish a story on alleged ties between Slovak politicians and the Italian Mafia.

 

The double murder threw the country into turmoil, and demonstrations after their deaths were the largest anti-government protests in Slovakia since communist times.

 

The central European country of 5.4 million people spent decades behind the Iron Curtain before joining the European Union, the eurozone and NATO.

 

Following the murders, then-Prime Minister Robert Fico was forced to resign. However, he is still the leader of the populist-left Smer-SD party and a close ally of current premier Peter Pellegrini.

 

Four people were charged with the killings. On Thursday, prosecutors said they had also charged multimillionaire businessman Marian Kocner with ordering the murder of Kuciak, who had been investigating his business activities at the time. It is thought that Kocner has ties to Smer-SD.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/slovakia-government-critic-zuzana-caputova-wins-first-round-in-presidential-vote/a-47950329

[Rick]

Curiosity question, but is there a debate in Germany about social welfare spending?

[BansheeOne]

Always, and since the Hartz reforms under Gerhard Schröder's SPD-Green government in the early 2000s usually about rolling back the latter. The Left Party, but more recently also the AfD have drawn lots of voters away from the Social Democrats on that promise, and the SPD has finally adopted that course in recent months after having been reduced to a 15-percent party since that time. Basically see every other post on the last pages of the dedicated German elections thread.

[Markus Becker]

Curiosity question, but is there a debate in Germany about social welfare spending?

 

Only on the extent of the increase. Some want more, others want even more and the Liberals want less but they are ignored.

[Rick]

 

Curiosity question, but is there a debate in Germany about social welfare spending?

 

Only on the extent of the increase. Some want more, others want even more and the Liberals want less but they are ignored.

 

A good source to find the taxation rate for German citizens is? I am curious how German voters figure to support their social welfare programs. My limited understanding is that there are a growing number of "older" Germans being supported by fewer younger workers?

[Ssnake]

A good source to find the taxation rate for German citizens is?

 

Depands on how in-depth you want it to be. This is a primer.

Note that 80%+ of all published literature about tax optimization is in German language (I never verified that claim).

 

So, you have the rates (see that primer) which aren't difficult to understand, but then the question is, what is deductible from your income before you apply the rates. That's when things become a bit more tricky...

Edited March 17, 2019 by Ssnake

[Ssnake]

My limited understanding is that there are a growing number of "older" Germans being supported by fewer younger workers?

 

Yes.

Most people in Germany have an equally limited understanding of the situation and underestimate the implications for them while voting to make the most prosperous generation of pensioners (current) even more prosperous.

[Rick]

 

My limited understanding is that there are a growing number of "older" Germans being supported by fewer younger workers?

 

Yes.

Most people in Germany have an equally limited understanding of the situation and underestimate the implications for them while voting to make the most prosperous generation of pensioners (current) even more prosperous.

 

Same in the U.S.