"What If" Scenario - Turkey VS Syria

[Colin]

Why would IDF aircraft do such a thing?

 

Why would Canada bomb Libya? It's a crazy world out there. Maybe to save Druze citizens after being requested to intervene on the behalf of their own Druze population? Might be an interesting op to split the loyalites of certain ethnic groups.

[X-Files]

The PPK will factor in any Turkish adventure.

 

Monday, June 13, 2011 14:17 GMT

Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) threatened on Sunday to trigger a revolution different than the recent uprisings in certain Arab countries if the Turkish government insists on its “denial” policy to Kurds rights.

 

Ankara did not deal positively with the party’s decision to stop fighting, the PKK argued.

http://www.alsumaria.tv/en/Iraq-News/1-65236-PKK-threatens-to-trigger-revolution-against-Turkey.html

[Rod]

WRW,

Why does it seem anywhere you move the drums of war begin? Please do not move to Florida

 

How do i put this nicely

 

BAD IDEA

 

I have spent two years in the Sudan - am now lazing about in Izmir, pretty much in bween an air base and a naval base and not far from a big military camp WAR IS BAD

 

Now if it starts my money is on Turkey - based on attitude if nothing else but also training, motivation and equipment

[Rod]

The last time that Turkey threatened Syria with military action was if it did not expel the PKK leader from Lebanon. Syria quickly acquiesced.

 

However I do not see Turkish Erdogan embarking in a costly (financially) border war with Syria for small incursions that can be resolved diplomatically. If however we are going to postulate thst conflict is boiling then what constitutes victory? Do the Turks drive all the way to Damascus and topple the Assad's statues in central Damascus? For Syria, do they "liberate" the Hatay area and wait for the Turks to request a cease-fire? In the end, just a few artillery here and there, dead infantry and knocked-down tanks and both sides will agree to stop hostilities.

[Sardaukar]

WRW,

Why does it seem anywhere you move the drums of war begin? Please do not move to Florida

 

 

 

I don't think he needs to...isn't permanent sound of gunfire a feature of FL? (at least gun control folks seem to think so)

Edited June 14, 2011 by Sardaukar

[shep854]

I don't think he needs to...isn't permanent sound of gunfire a feature of FL? (at least gun control folks seem to think so)

There are also still some angry Cuban expats...

[WRW]

I don't think he needs to...isn't permanent sound of gunfire a feature of FL? (at least gun control folks seem to think so)

 

 

Wife also says same thing - might be the effect of my charm witty personality. or nature of job - am a cross between a consultant and development worker so normally end up in strange places.

I have probelms with some places - Somalia, Liberia and Sierre Leon - might add Florida to that mind you.

 

Have worked in Armenia, Botswana and Croatia and there have been no probelms there - also in Turkey

Edited June 14, 2011 by WRW

[Sikkiyn]

I can't honestly see those two knuckle-heads having a go at it, or having the will to really do more than take a few plinking shots and call it a day.

A more interesting scenario would be Turkey and Greece having another go; a lot of bad blood already exists.

[Cookie Monster]

I would foresee a Turkish-Syrian conflict over water rights. Turkey is building huge dams on the Euphrates river that flow downward to Syria and to Iraq. Turkey might see this an an opportunity to finally secure its water rights.

[WRW]

I would foresee a Turkish-Syrian conflict over water rights. Turkey is building huge dams on the Euphrates river that flow downward to Syria and to Iraq. Turkey might see this an an opportunity to finally secure its water rights.

 

this is a serious long term threat

[swerve]

I would foresee a Turkish-Syrian conflict over water rights. Turkey is building huge dams on the Euphrates river that flow downward to Syria and to Iraq. Turkey might see this an an opportunity to finally secure its water rights.

Turkey doesn't need to fight Syria over water rights. The Dicle (Tigris) & Firat (Euphrates) rise in Turkey. Note the one significant factor: Syria is downstream of Turkey. Turkey can cut off Syria's water, not vice-versa. Why invade to get something you have?

 

The legal quarrels are not just with Syria, of course. Iraq needs the water even more than Syria.

[Cookie Monster]

Turkey doesn't need to fight Syria over water rights. The Dicle (Tigris) & Firat (Euphrates) rise in Turkey. Note the one significant factor: Syria is downstream of Turkey. Turkey can cut off Syria's water, not vice-versa. Why invade to get something you have?

 

The legal quarrels are not just with Syria, of course. Iraq needs the water even more than Syria.

 

yes Turkey has the ability to cut off Syria's water but what I am saying is that Turkey might see this as an opportunity to secure all of the advantages that Turkey currently enjoys without having to go to world court to defend its position. Or Syria might be desperate enough to challenge Turkey militarily and Turkey may want to preempt the Syrians.

[WRW]

Turkey doesn't need to fight Syria over water rights. The Dicle (Tigris) & Firat (Euphrates) rise in Turkey. Note the one significant factor: Syria is downstream of Turkey. Turkey can cut off Syria's water, not vice-versa. Why invade to get something you have?

 

The legal quarrels are not just with Syria, of course. Iraq needs the water even more than Syria.

 

Turkey is planning a lot of dam work in the east - may not leave much water to flow

[swerve]

yes Turkey has the ability to cut off Syria's water but what I am saying is that Turkey might see this as an opportunity to secure all of the advantages that Turkey currently enjoys without having to go to world court to defend its position. Or Syria might be desperate enough to challenge Turkey militarily and Turkey may want to preempt the Syrians.

Er - so how does invading a neighbour affect any legal judgement? If you're going to ignore a judgement anyway, why fight a war first, then ignore it, when you can ignore it without the cost of the war? Fighting won't improve Turkey's position. It's so strong already it has nothing to gain.

 

What's all this crap about Syria being desperate enough to invade Turkey? The Assads are already struggling to hang on. Why commit suicide by starting a war they'd be doomed to lose? And if they do have a fit of insanity & go for it, & aren't promptly shot by their own army as an act of self-preservation, why would the Turks throw away the immense advantage they have of being able to call on all of NATO for help in defending themselves by launching a pre-emptive strike? The logical thing to do would be to prepare to defend against any attack, wait for it, break it, call for NATO help & then smash Syria, with assured supplies of new munitions, & the full co-operation of the USAF at Incirlik (perfectly placed, BTW). They might even get support from US forces in Iraq, & other NATO forces, maybe even operating out of Akrotiri. Why throw all that away & get yourself tagged as the aggressor, & thus not entitled to NATO help?

 

You see? Turkey has nothing to gain, & a great deal to lose, from attacking Syria. As far as Syria is concerned, Turkey already has everything it wants. There are things Syria would like from Turkey (more water, the border moved to put the small Arab-majority region in Syria), but knows it would lose a war, & therefore has no reason to attack. Turkey is not only much more powerful, but has better allies.

 

I thought legal training was supposed to teach logical analytical skills.

[Cookie Monster]

 

I thought legal training was supposed to teach logical analytical skills.

 

I take it that you really haven't interact with many people out in the real world.

 

When it comes to something precious, most logical reasoning goes out of the window. That's one of the first thing I had to learn in the real world of lawyering. You encounter a lot of clients and witnesses who don't really make sound logical reasoning and/or do things that astound human reasoning.

 

You cannot predict human behavior and water rights is one of those something that may cause humans, including leaders to act irrationally. That's my whole point. You are discounting the possibility of a Turkey-Syria conflict saying it is highly improbable. How many times have we heard that one in history and only later to find out that our rational arguments go out of the window.

 

Furthermore, the growing Syrian refugee crisis may compel Turkey to act unilaterally.

 

Therefore, I am not discounting a Turkish-Syria conflict especially when I see an outstanding issue that hasn't been resolve and has the capacity to lead to conflict. Nothing is ever certain in that region

 

It is called being prudent. Perhaps you can learn something from it.

Edited June 16, 2011 by Cookie Monster

[swerve]

What I'm seeing from you is the application of pre-teen wargaming logic to the real world.

 

Let's break this down for you:

 

Syria doesn't have anything Turkey wants.

Syria is not strong enough to be a threat to Turkey.

Turkey is a democracy, & starting a bloody & expensive war of choice would be unpopular. It would harm the incomes of many government supporters, including influential ones. The bloodshed would be unpopular.

The current government of Turkey distrusts the armed forces (& it's mutual), & does not want to boost their prestige by engineering a victorious war to defend the motherland by pretending Turkey is forced into war.

The refugees are in small enough numbers that Turkey can easily cope. Turkey coped with hundreds of thousands of homeless after the 1999 earthquake. I remember seeing the remains of the vast camps set up to house them, in 2003, when most had been dismantled, but a few people were still living in them. The total number of refugees is currently about 2% of the number of people who needed emergency housing back then, & Turkey is now richer, & isn't simultaneously having to deal with devastation.

Attacking Syria would be more expensive than looking after refugees.

Attacking Syria might generate even more refugees.

As far as the Turks are concerned, there are no major unresolved issues.

 

 

Even on its own, Turkey is too strong for Syria to attack with any chance of success.

Turkey is part of the most powerful alliance in the world. An attack by Syria would allow Turkey to draw on help from its allies.

Turkey's allies have troops, aircraft, ships, & bases all round Syria.

The Syrian army is currently busy suppressing internal dissent.

Bashir & his more vicious brother have done nothing to date to suggest they do not understand all the above. They have shown themselves capable (unlike, for example, Saddam Hussein) of understanding the limits of their strength, e.g. in Lebanon.

As far as Syria is concerned, there aren't any new unresolved issues with Turkey. Relations have been improving. There have been discussions about water, instead of shouting of empty threats as in the past, Syria has shut up about the Arab minority in Turkey & the status of Hatay, the border has been opened up, trade has been increasing rapidly. Syria never seriously threatened to attack even when it was relatively much stronger than now.

 

Few things are impossible, but I don't see the Assads as suicidal, or Erdogan as seeking anything other than damping it all down. He's not playing up the refugee problem, but the opposite. He's publicly chastising the Assads, but still keeping channels open.

 

Your only argument is to say that sometimes people behave against their own interests. True, & it's always worth being prepared for spectacular stupidity, but your life will go much more smoothly if you plan on the basis that others will generally try to act for their own benefit.

[Cookie Monster]

*sighs*

 

Here's a reading source: http://wu.academia.edu/JoostJongerden/Papers/225543/Dams_and_Politics_in_Turkey_Utilizing_Water_Developing_Conflict

 

Perhaps you can give the author the usual cheap shots that you have undertaken towards me and see how that develops.

 

You have your position. I got my own based on reports and sources I have read over the Internet and newspapers.

Edited June 17, 2011 by Cookie Monster

[swerve]

"According to a NATO conflict scenario" - professional military planners have to consider all possible scenarios, however unlikely. It's their job. They have to have a plan, just in case. That doesn't mean they think it's going to happen. It's like buying insurance.

 

BTW, note that the hypothetical invasion is already in the past. That particular scenario turned out to be wrong.

[crazyinsane105]

Surprised nobody mentioned Syria's WMD capability. Then again, I don't see a war between Syria or Turkey taking place. Ever since Erdogan has come to power, Turkey has been moving closer to Syria and Iran and farther away from the US and Israel. There is cooperation among all three countries against the Kurds, as Turkey and Iran (and to a lesser extent Syria) see Kurdish independence as the greatest threat to their sovereignty.

[rohala]

Although I agree fully, that Syria attacking Turkey is very improbable, it seems that Turkey "intervening" militarily into Syria may not be so improbable. At least according to a Greek news blog* echoing the Turkish press, Turkey has called Syria to clarify its stance on its current problem immediately, and that if the refugee problem surpasses Turkey's capabilities to manage, Turkey reserves the right to act as it deems appropriate, which according to the same source, includes the creation of a "security zone" by the Turkish military inside Syrian territory.

 

* http://www.defence-point.gr/news/?p=12868 (16.6.2011) and http://www.defence-point.gr/news/?p=12992 (18.6.2011)

Edited June 18, 2011 by rohala

[WRW]

Although I agree fully, that Syria attacking Turkey is very improbable, it seems that Turkey "intervening" militarily into Syria may not be so improbable. At least according to a Greek news blog* echoing the Turkish press, Turkey has called Syria to clarify its stance on its current problem immediately, and that if the refugee problem surpasses Turkey's capabilities to manage, Turkey reserves the right to act as it deems appropriate, which according to the same source, includes the creation of a "security zone" by the Turkish military inside Syrian territory.

 

* http://www.defence-point.gr/news/?p=12868 (16.6.2011) and http://www.defence-point.gr/news/?p=12992 (18.6.2011)

 

this has potential - would allow TDF presence in Syria and facilitate cleaning up of areas

[Nobu]

When it comes to something precious, most logical reasoning goes out of the window. That's one of the first thing I had to learn in the real world of lawyering. You encounter a lot of clients and witnesses who don't really make sound logical reasoning and/or do things that astound human reasoning.

China's chokehold on India's water supply would be precious enough to upset India's capacity for logical reasoning.

[Cookie Monster]

China's chokehold on India's water supply would be precious enough to upset India's capacity for logical reasoning.

 

There have been a lot of reports in the Indian media regarding this and great concern in the GoI. The GoI and MoD are expanding the defense capabilities in the Northeast sector and the Himalayan region. They have also created two mountain corps designed to deal with that geographical terrain.

 

So I would not surprised if there is more tension in the days to come.

[Cookie Monster]

Although I agree fully, that Syria attacking Turkey is very improbable, it seems that Turkey "intervening" militarily into Syria may not be so improbable. At least according to a Greek news blog* echoing the Turkish press, Turkey has called Syria to clarify its stance on its current problem immediately, and that if the refugee problem surpasses Turkey's capabilities to manage, Turkey reserves the right to act as it deems appropriate, which according to the same source, includes the creation of a "security zone" by the Turkish military inside Syrian territory.

 

* http://www.defence-point.gr/news/?p=12868 (16.6.2011) and http://www.defence-point.gr/news/?p=12992 (18.6.2011)

 

Which is something that the Syrian establishment won't tolerate and could lead to Syria making moves such as counterattacking.

[Cookie Monster]

"According to a NATO conflict scenario" - professional military planners have to consider all possible scenarios, however unlikely. It's their job. They have to have a plan, just in case. That doesn't mean they think it's going to happen. It's like buying insurance.

 

BTW, note that the hypothetical invasion is already in the past. That particular scenario turned out to be wrong.

 

The underlying tensions are still there. Just because the hypothetical date has come and gone doesn't mean that it won't happen. As long as you don't resolve the underlying tensions, the possibility remains.