Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratlys

[tankerwanabe]

It's bigger. Think the Battle of the Atlantic, the U boats did all the damage they did without radar so some convoys couldn't be located in fog. Now add radar. Naval warfare is essentially technological, human factors are minimal but could be decisive, yet no human factor will trump a technical advance.

 

It doesn't matter how good a skipper is if he cannot detect the enemy while the enemy can detect him.

 

If it's bigger, then isn't the numerical advantage that the Chinese Navy have basically a paper tiger? A bit like the Sadam's Tank advantage before ODS1?

 

Yesterday I took a look at a release from Taiwan which estimated that by 2020, it won't be able to defend itself versus a Chinese invasion. That's in 9 years. With all the hype on the gigantic Chinese Navy, one would think that the Taiwanese would choose a shorter time frame in order to scare the United States into selling them more hardware today. Not in 9 years.

[Guest JamesG123]

Like the rest of the Chinese military the PLAN is quite secretive. They only show what they want seen. I would not take the absence of information on PRC sub development as its non-existence.

[pikachu]

If it's bigger, then isn't the numerical advantage that the Chinese Navy have basically a paper tiger? A bit like the Sadam's Tank advantage before ODS1?

 

Yesterday I took a look at a release from Taiwan which estimated that by 2020, it won't be able to defend itself versus a Chinese invasion. That's in 9 years. With all the hype on the gigantic Chinese Navy, one would think that the Taiwanese would choose a shorter time frame in order to scare the United States into selling them more hardware today. Not in 9 years.

 

It's not all US-centric. Various Taiwanese institutions, governmental or otherwise, have made quite a few of these doomsday predictions over the years. Most predict the end of Taiwanese independence within a decade. I think the time span is chosen simply because it's convenient. If you choose a shorter time span, people might lose hope, but if you choose a longer one people won't give a damn. Actually, that works for countries too. If the US felt that Taiwan was going to fall tomorrow, there wouldn't be any military sale simply because there'd a be a high likelihood of these gadgets falling into Chinese hands; alternatively there'd be no pressure to sell if Taiwan was going to be okay with what they had for a long time to come. In any case, the primary target audience for these predictions are usually the Taiwanese themselves, not the US. In order for the US to sell, Taiwan's government must first muster the intent to buy.

 

As for PLAN being a paper tiger, that has been the party line for quite a while. Many high-ranking Chinese officers openly admit it and the PLA Daily site continues publishing articles calling for improvements. Even Chen Bingde admitted this when he announced China's carrier plans a few months ago. China knows full well how backwards their navy is.

[Heirophant]

As for PLAN being a paper tiger, that has been the party line for quite a while. Many high-ranking Chinese officers openly admit it and the PLA Daily site continues publishing articles calling for improvements. Even Chen Bingde admitted this when he announced China's carrier plans a few months ago. China knows full well how backwards their navy is.

 

Actually, the Chinese, in the past 3 decades of the reform era, have always SAID that they are very backward. They not only admit this, they announce it openly in the media. Strangely, this has not encouraged anyone else to put their backwardness to the test.

 

China's perceived weakness is supposed to be a signal for more advanced nations to intimidate them, or at least to ignore them. Neither has been the pattern of late.

[Nobu]

I sincerely hope that never happen.

That is like hoping against the appearance of the rising sun at dawn.

Edited August 13, 2011 by Nobu

[RETAC21]

If it's bigger, then isn't the numerical advantage that the Chinese Navy have basically a paper tiger? A bit like the Sadam's Tank advantage before ODS1?

 

Yesterday I took a look at a release from Taiwan which estimated that by 2020, it won't be able to defend itself versus a Chinese invasion. That's in 9 years. With all the hype on the gigantic Chinese Navy, one would think that the Taiwanese would choose a shorter time frame in order to scare the United States into selling them more hardware today. Not in 9 years.

 

Yes, that's why it's important that they have been making substantial advances in the technological front. Anything the PLAN has that predates 1995 is just a target (though they have been modernising some destroyers)

[Nobu]

Yes, that's why it's important that they have been making substantial advances in the technological front. Anything the PLAN has that predates 1995 is just a target (though they have been modernising some destroyers)

On the technological front, these "substantial advances" are relative to a starting point of total inferiority. Compared to the constant naval advances being funded by the two wealthiest nations in the world, those advances are completely remedial. A graduate student finally mastering long division has made a substantial advance relative to a third grader.

 

On the human front, there is no evidence of Chinese advances in modern naval tradition or experience at sea.

 

The entire PLAN at this point is operating under a condition of numerical, human, and technological inferiority. The life expextancy of such a navy and its sailors in battle with the Japanese Navy and USN combined would be a few days. Afterward, this combined fleet force would then strangle China's seaborne commerce and set about crushing China's export-driven economy.

[Nobu]

I wonder what is China's anti-sub capabilities. Seems to me that her surrounding nations either have a lot of them or are in the process of acquiring a lot of them.

Inadequate. There is a reason why the Japanese Navy currently operates the most lethal advanced attack submarines in the world.

Edited August 13, 2011 by Nobu

[chino]

Actually, the Chinese, in the past 3 decades of the reform era, have always SAID that they are very backward. They not only admit this, they announce it openly in the media. Strangely, this has not encouraged anyone else to put their backwardness to the test.

 

China's perceived weakness is supposed to be a signal for more advanced nations to intimidate them, or at least to ignore them. Neither has been the pattern of late.

 

China is indeed backward and still dangerously weak in both air and naval power. They have barely enough to defend themselves.

 

That's why I always laugh when people talk about Taiwan being invaded. It is a scenario Taiwan is happy to play along with since it makes them look like the victim.

 

China is probably able to do some nuisance bombing of Taiwan, but will never risk an invasion. The nightmare scenario I think would be that the landed PLA force is cut off and trapped on Taiwan and PLAN is not strong enough to fight off USN intervention.

 

Example, Taiwan still occupies several island within spitting distance of the Mainland coast - far away from Taiwan. Even these weakly garrisoned islands have been unmolested by China for over 50yrs.

 

Countries that don't share a land border with China has little nothing to worry about.

[chino]

That is like hoping against the appearance of the rising sun at dawn.

 

Dream on, Japan will never become a UNSC member.

 

Not that I have anything against the Japan of today. But you have to face reality.

[Nobu]

Not that I have anything against the Japan of today. But you have to face reality.

Reality at the G8 level is far different from what China and Chinese are accustomed to.

[BansheeOne]

Any misgivings are probably not about Japan alone, but the fact that the extension of the Security Council would have to include Germany, India, and probably Brazil, each with their own baggage multiplying each other, diminishing the power of the original veto powers and upsetting the established balance in the council.

[pikachu]

Any misgivings are probably not about Japan alone, but the fact that the extension of the Security Council would have to include Germany, India, and probably Brazil, each with their own baggage multiplying each other, diminishing the power of the original veto powers and upsetting the established balance in the council.

 

IIRC that particular alliance collapsed. Germany decided to lobby France and UK separately and India got conned by China into dumping Japan last year. No idea what Brazil is doing. India will probably get her seat from simply being the other billion-man country, and there's really no resistance in the Big Five against Germany joining (Russia just wants some sort of concession). However, Japan's entry will be difficult simply because China is already there and has a veto.

[swerve]

Example, Taiwan still occupies several island within spitting distance of the Mainland coast - far away from Taiwan. Even these weakly garrisoned islands have been unmolested by China for over 50yrs.

Weakly garrisoned? They used to have almost 100,000 troops on them!

 

Unmolested for 50 years, perhaps, but heavily molested for a decade before that. How many hundred thousand shells?

[X-Files]

Seoul to Deploy Sub-Killer Torpedoes

The Navy will deploy Korean-made Hongsangeo (Red Shark) "submarine-killer" torpedoes on the Navy's top-end Aegis destroyer this month, it emerged on Sunday.

 

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/08/15/2011081500444.html

[chino]

Weakly garrisoned? They used to have almost 100,000 troops on them!

 

Unmolested for 50 years, perhaps, but heavily molested for a decade before that. How many hundred thousand shells?

 

Really? I have a Taiwanese former colleague garrisoned on Matsu for his National Service. He said it was quite idyllic - definitely not a heavily-garrisoned warlike feel.

 

Taiwan has around 300,000 active personnel (mostly conscripts) at any one time. So I don't know if the number quoted was inflated for propaganda purpose?

 

BTW, during my conscription in the mid-80's I spent 3 weeks on division level exercise in Taiwan.

[chino]

Reality at the G8 level is far different from what China and Chinese are accustomed to.

Haha, childish baiting.

 

On militaryphotos, you can live out your fantasy of China vs Japan etc.

[X-Files]

The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict

The 21st century's defining battleground is going to be on water.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_south_china_sea_is_the_future_of_conflict?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full

[Steven P Allen]

Nobu and Chino:

 

May I offer a piece of advice? This forum is probably NOT the place to start another Sino-japanese war. If the skirmishing gets any worse, MODERATOR (who sees and knows ALL) might decide to step in. Just sayin' . . . .

[tankerwanabe]

It's kind of funny that within days of the Chinese testing out their sparkling new carrier that the Tawainese unveiled their carrier-killer ASM. It's almost like a war of public relations.

[Steven P Allen]

It's kind of funny that within days of the Chinese testing out their sparkling new carrier that the Tawainese unveiled their carrier-killer ASM. It's almost like a war of public relations.

"[A]lmost"? If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, . . . .

[Guest Charles]

The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict

The 21st century's defining battleground is going to be on water.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_south_china_sea_is_the_future_of_conflict?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full

 

I find Mr Kaplan's interpretation of Total War and Chung Ku (middle kingdom) to be off the mark. The way I was trained in the 1980s, Total War is what we saw in the latter parts of WWII, and what we knew would happen if the balloon went up for WWIII. not the:

 

In all these efforts, war and foreign policy have become subjects not only for soldiers and diplomats, but for humanists and intellectuals. Indeed, counterinsurgency represents a culmination of sorts of the union between uniformed officers and human rights experts. This is the upshot of ground war evolving into total war in the modern age.

 

I hope some of our Asian contributers can correct me here, but I understood the Middle Kingdom idea to be one where China is inward focussed; not the outward looking 800Lb Gorilla searching for resources that we see today.

 

Again, just my interpretation of what Mr Kaplan wrote. Other than my few quibbles above, an interesting piece.

 

Charles

[pikachu]

I hope some of our Asian contributers can correct me here, but I understood the Middle Kingdom idea to be one where China is inward focussed; not the outward looking 800Lb Gorilla searching for resources that we see today.

 

The original conception of the Middle Kingdom idea was that China, being the center of the world, should tame the barbarians surrounding her and sinicize them whenever possible, annihilating them when not. The inward-focused Middle Kingdom was ironically a Qing dynasty conception. Ironic because the Qing Manchu tribe were themselves an all-conquering military force before the time of Qianlong, who put a formal end to Manchu expansion (although some major conquests were made even after his reign). Before that all Chinese dynasties were hell-bent on expanding slowly as a means of self-protection. The Ming are guilty of many atrocities (including at least two known genocides) in Yunnan, which in Ming times was an enclave of minority tribes. The prior dynasties were no better; the Tang, for instance, annihilated the former Great Koguryo kingdom that ruled what is now Manchuria, reducing their descendants to the Korean peninsula; the Western Han destroyed the Xiongnu confederation (incidentally causing Huns to migrate west). The idea of the Chinese as pandas is really a modern Chinese invention. Before that all their neighbors saw was a hungry tiger. The Chinese were never the peaceful hegemons they now portray themselves as. Basically, today we're just seeing things return to a historical norm.

 

You have to remember that roughly 70% of what are now "Han" Chinese owe their descent to sinicized tribes. The majority of southern Chinese are descended primarily from the Yue/Viets and what the Chinese called the nanman (probably an agglomeration of now-Southeast-Asian nationalities), and the majority of northern Chinese are descendants of the various invading northern "barbarian" tribes. The irony is that most "Han" Chinese now call the Hakka - who are descended from the real Han dynasty Chinese - "outsiders".

[Guest Charles]

The original conception of the Middle Kingdom idea was that China, being the center of the world, should tame the barbarians surrounding her and sinicize them whenever possible, annihilating them when not. The inward-focused Middle Kingdom was ironically a Qing dynasty conception. Ironic because the Qing Manchu tribe were themselves an all-conquering military force before the time of Qianlong, who put a formal end to Manchu expansion (although some major conquests were made even after his reign). Before that all Chinese dynasties were hell-bent on expanding slowly as a means of self-protection. The Ming are guilty of many atrocities (including at least two known genocides) in Yunnan, which in Ming times was an enclave of minority tribes. The prior dynasties were no better; the Tang, for instance, annihilated the former Great Koguryo kingdom that ruled what is now Manchuria, reducing their descendants to the Korean peninsula; the Western Han destroyed the Xiongnu confederation (incidentally causing Huns to migrate west). The idea of the Chinese as pandas is really a modern Chinese invention. Before that all their neighbors saw was a hungry tiger. The Chinese were never the peaceful hegemons they now portray themselves as. Basically, today we're just seeing things return to a historical norm.

 

You have to remember that roughly 70% of what are now "Han" Chinese owe their descent to sinicized tribes. The majority of southern Chinese are descended primarily from the Yue/Viets and what the Chinese called the nanman (probably an agglomeration of now-Southeast-Asian nationalities), and the majority of northern Chinese are descendants of the various invading northern "barbarian" tribes. The irony is that most "Han" Chinese now call the Hakka - who are descended from the real Han dynasty Chinese - "outsiders".

 

Pikachu, Thank you for the information there, very informative.

 

Charles

[chino]

Nobu and Chino:

 

May I offer a piece of advice? This forum is probably NOT the place to start another Sino-japanese war. If the skirmishing gets any worse, MODERATOR (who sees and knows ALL) might decide to step in. Just sayin' . . . .

 

 

I distinctly stated that I am not going into a "Sino vs anything" discussion. And if Nobu wishes to pursue that line, he should go to another forum.