Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratlys

[chino]

With the PRC starting to look like the 800lbs. gorilla bully, I wonder whether there are talks of an alliance forming between India-Vietnam-Taiwan-Philippines-Japan-South Korea.

 

If I was Taiwan, I'd take this opportunity to reach out to other players even if done secretively.

 

East Asian nations all ganging up to counter China is a popular fantasy.

 

 

 

Japan and S Korea have very little beef with China in reality. So why would they go into alliance with countries that are economic pygmies compared to China, their mutual trading partner?

 

Chinese are buying Japanese and Korean products as fast as they can make them. So Japan and S Korea would throw all that away to help Vietnam and Philippines win back the Spratlys? Why?

 

 

Taiwan itself, does not completely rule out reunification despite what westerners like to believe. So, what is China's is eventually Taiwan's and vice versa. To give you another perspective: Taiwan claims Tibet and Diaoyutai (Senkaku) too, just like China.

 

 

So that leaves Vietnam and Philippines. Both countries do not have much to gain from China economically since they do not sell much stuff to the Mainland, nor does China invest heavily in either of these two countries. So in a spat with China over the Spratlys they have more to gain than lose. Either China try to buy them off, or other countries start arming and aiding them.

 

 

India? Until they start patrolling the SCS, I'd say they are all talk and no action.

Edited August 6, 2011 by chino

[Nobu]

Japan and S Korea have very little beef with China in reality.

This depends on China's support for Japan's overdue ascension to permanent UNSC member status with full veto power.

[chino]

Ah yes, the Singapore Model of Leadership and Governance. Some of us here in the Philippines think that we need such. "Benevolent Dictatorship" that's what they want.

 

No. We do not need Lee & Sons. What we need is a wholesale re-education of the citizenry. And if that means glassing 99% of the country, so be it.

 

Here's a thought...

 

What if we offer Lee & Sons to you at half price? That's BOTH the Father and the Son at bargain basement prices.

 

Heck, forget money: just take them off our hands!!

Edited August 6, 2011 by chino

[Simon Tan]

Sorry....Lee & Sons are the best paid govt. executives in the WORLD. The PI does not have any real money to pay them.

[Corinthian]

Sorry....Lee & Sons are the best paid govt. executives in the WORLD. The PI does not have any real money to pay them.

 

And even if we had, I have a feeling Lee & Sons will utterly fail in transforming the country into a 7,100+ island version of Singapore.

 

What worked for Singapore doesn't necessarily mean it will work in other countries with different cultures.

Edited August 6, 2011 by TomasCTT

[swerve]

BTW, I wonder how fast and whether it's possible to refit the Hyuga and Ise to operate fixed-wing aircraft. For anti-landing craft duties of course.

Refit should be possible (ski-jump, maybe some deck strengthening, heat-resistant treatment - not sure if the lifts would take F-35B, but if not that just means more work & money), but there are currently no aircraft available to operate from them, unless Japan buys the ex-RAF Harrier GR9s very soon, before they're all scrapped.

[swerve]

pssst....Daikin is Japanese.

 

Samsung LCD panels are from Sharp.

 

IPhone and IPad screens are....Japanese.......

Just outside the somewhat run-down Japanese town where Mrs Swerve's grandfather lives, Sharp built a huge new factory a few years ago. It makes LCD screens - which are mostly fitted to products which are sold with labels saying "Made in China".

[irregularmedic]

Refit should be possible (ski-jump, maybe some deck strengthening, heat-resistant treatment - not sure if the lifts would take F-35B, but if not that just means more work & money), but there are currently no aircraft available to operate from them, unless Japan buys the ex-RAF Harrier GR9s very soon, before they're all scrapped.

 

I hadn't thought about this before. I suppose no US Harriers are still being made either are they? Not likely any ended up at the desert boneyard either I imagine. Until the F-35B comes online there just isn't anything available is there? Is Spain still operating Harriers? Doesn't Italy have a carrier or two? What do they fly from them?

[Archie Pellagio]

Japan's strategy is to ensure that the next generation of Chinese consumers will have a Canon or Nikon SLR equivalent in every household. South Korea and Taiwan are working toward the same.

 

I have no idea what Vietnam and India are doing.

 

Good luck with that.

 

Japan has lost massive ground to ROK companies and China is very fast catching up, in everything from consumer electronics to ship building.

[swerve]

I hadn't thought about this before. I suppose no US Harriers are still being made either are they? Not likely any ended up at the desert boneyard either I imagine. Until the F-35B comes online there just isn't anything available is there? Is Spain still operating Harriers? Doesn't Italy have a carrier or two? What do they fly from them?

Spain & Italy fly Harriers from their carriers: AV-8B+. But neither has any to spare.

[irregularmedic]

Spain & Italy fly Harriers from their carriers: AV-8B+. But neither has any to spare.

 

I didn't figure they had any to spare, just wondering if that handful of a/c were enough to keep the production line open. I assume it closed long ago though.

[tankerwanabe]

Refit should be possible (ski-jump, maybe some deck strengthening, heat-resistant treatment - not sure if the lifts would take F-35B, but if not that just means more work & money), but there are currently no aircraft available to operate from them, unless Japan buys the ex-RAF Harrier GR9s very soon, before they're all scrapped.

 

What is the health status of those ex-RAF Harriers? Were they retired due to a limited budget or end-of-life?

[swerve]

Budget. The MoD had signed a contract to sustain them until about 2020 not long before they were retired.

 

I didn't figure they had any to spare, just wondering if that handful of a/c were enough to keep the production line open. I assume it closed long ago though.

They got them a long time ago, when the production line was still running for the USMC. It closed in a previous millennium.

Edited August 7, 2011 by swerve

[tankerwanabe]

Have the Japanese shown any interest in the F-35 for their 4 light carriers? (2 built, 2 to be completed in 2014)

 

It seems to me that the PRC is telling the world that they're only concern with their borders while at the same time gradually expanding such borders to include international waters ... and any land that happens to fall inside such waters.

[Guest JamesG123]

No. The carriers are actually ASW helicopter carriers. They wouldn't have the capacity to operate Cs, and they don't have a requirement for the Bs.

 

Japan wanted the F-22. They are saying they will build their own advanced fighter instead of "taking" F-35s.

[swerve]

Have the Japanese shown any interest in the F-35 for their 4 light carriers? (2 built, 2 to be completed in 2014)

Japan won't have two more light carriers completed in 2014. 22DDH may be completed in 2014 or 2015, & 24DDH a couple of years later.

 

As James says, the two built already are ASW helicopter carriers, designed as leaders for ASW flotillas, with AAW destroyers providing air defence if needed. They could, in theory, be modified to operate F-35B, but they're a bit small for it.

 

The two new ships planned are a good size to operate F-35B, but they'd also need modifications.

Edited August 9, 2011 by swerve

[chino]

This depends on China's support for Japan's overdue ascension to permanent UNSC member status with full veto power.

 

I sincerely hope that never happen.

[pikachu]

Japan won't have two more light carriers completed in 2014. 22DDH may be completed in 2014 or 2015, & 24DDH a couple of years later.

 

As James says, the two built already are ASW helicopter carriers, designed as leaders for ASW flotillas, with AAW destroyers providing air defence if needed. They could, in theory, be modified to operate F-35B, but they're a bit small for it.

 

The two new ships planned are a good size to operate F-35B, but they'd also need modifications.

 

BTW, the Shi Lang (ex-Varyag) aircraft carrier launched this morning (Aug 10) for sea trials. No signs of the J-15 prototype (or any other aircraft, other than a Z-8 spotted yesterday) yet, so it's still a long way to go for PLAN.

 

Xinhua: China's Refitted Aircraft Carrier Platform Sets Sail for First Sea Trial

 

Taiwan's view

[tankerwanabe]

I wonder what is China's anti-sub capabilities. Seems to me that her surrounding nations either have a lot of them or are in the process of acquiring a lot of them.

[pikachu]

I wonder what is China's anti-sub capabilities. Seems to me that her surrounding nations either have a lot of them or are in the process of acquiring a lot of them.

 

Well, China's sub fleet was IIRC bigger than those of Japan, SK, and Taiwan combined, although admittedly antiquated. It's actually China's neighbors that have had to worry about Chinese subs, not the other way around. That said, China's fleet ASW capability is practically non-existent because it wasn't considered important before. Most of the waters around China are shallow because the continental shelf extends all the way east of Japan, so Chinese waters are bad for subs, especially big nuclear-powered ones. Chinese maritime Y-7s also have the range to patrol 90% of the waters she claimed (at least until recently), so the PLAN relies on them instead.

[jakec]

Well, China's sub fleet was IIRC bigger than those of Japan, SK, and Taiwan combined, although admittedly antiquated. It's actually China's neighbors that have had to worry about Chinese subs, not the other way around. That said, China's fleet ASW capability is practically non-existent because it wasn't considered important before. Most of the waters around China are shallow because the continental shelf extends all the way east of Japan, so Chinese waters are bad for subs, especially big nuclear-powered ones. Chinese maritime Y-7s also have the range to patrol 90% of the waters she claimed (at least until recently), so the PLAN relies on them instead.

 

I think you are mistaken if you think PLANAF uses Y-7s for ASW or MPA.

[Archie Pellagio]

Chinese maritime Y-7s also have the range to patrol 90% of the waters she claimed (at least until recently), so the PLAN relies on them instead.

 

 

Y7 as in the An24 clone?

[tankerwanabe]

Does anyone know how much of an edge does a technological advantage give in Naval warfare? Is relatively the same as air warfare? Or is it closer to infantry warfare?

[RETAC21]

Does anyone know how much of an edge does a technological advantage give in Naval warfare? Is relatively the same as air warfare? Or is it closer to infantry warfare?

 

It's bigger. Think the Battle of the Atlantic, the U boats did all the damage they did without radar so some convoys couldn't be located in fog. Now add radar. Naval warfare is essentially technological, human factors are minimal but could be decisive, yet no human factor will trump a technical advance.

 

It doesn't matter how good a skipper is if he cannot detect the enemy while the enemy can detect him.

[pikachu]

 

Y7 as in the An24 clone?

 

GAH! Y-8s, sorry. I was thinking of the Y-8 MPA and its new Y-8X variant (which may be a Y-9 instead).

 

This thing:

 

Y-8MPA