Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratlys

[sunday]

1 hour ago, X-Files said:

I've got $20 on the 21st century Moros.

 

Better yet, show me a PLA track record from the last decades of them being BAMFers

China denies allegations its peacekeepers abandoned South Sudan posts | Reuters

There are the stories of successful, and brutal, repressions in Tibet and Western China, on the other hand.

Edited January 25 by sunday

[X-Files]

On 1/25/2025 at 9:59 AM, sunday said:

There are the stories of successful, and brutal, repressions in Tibet and Western China, on the other hand.

 

Moros have access to a lot more weapons than those poor hill tribesmen.

$20 bet still stands.

National Counterterrorism Center | Groups

Edited January 29 by X-Files

[X-Files]

 

Secretary of National Defense of the Philippines, Gilberto Teodoro, and Hoover Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster, as they discuss the history of US-Philippine relations, defense cooperation, and security in Southeast Asia. In light of the new US administration, Teodoro reflects on America’s long alliance with the Philippines and his expectations for the relationship over the coming years, how the Philippine government has evolved over the last several administrations in countering Chinese coercion, and the connection between Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the impact of the war in the Middle East on the security of the Philippines.

 

[X-Files]

Australia on Thursday said it was monitoring the "unusual" presence of Chinese warships near its eastern coast.

"We are keeping a close watch on them, and we will make sure we are watching every move. It's not unprecedented. But it is an unusual event," Defence Minister Richard Marles told Sky News.

Australia says 'unusual' Chinese ships near its east coast not a threat

[X-Files]

Some updates

 

 

Evacuation in Taiwan Emergency: Proposal to accept about 47,000 people in 7 cities in Fukuoka Prefecture From the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa to Omuta, Iizuka, Tagawa, and Asakura (TNC TV West Japan) - Yahoo! News

 

Stolen from this thread

 

[TrustMe]

I suspose you can't do freedom of navigation patrols through the Taiwan strait without the Chinese doing something similar  

[urbanoid]

'T-6 today, F-XX tomorrow' lol

 

[Rick]

I've always found it at least slightly amazing that since 1945 every military enemy of the U.S., with three exceptions that I know of, are now if not allies, at least have decent diplomatic relations. 

[X-Files]

Interesting content

 

 

[RETAC21]

China testing the waters:

[X-Files]

Map Shows Chinese Warships Encircling US Ally in Pacific

 

The Chinese naval task group, comprised of destroyer CNS Zunyi, frigate CNS Hengyang, and replenishment ship CNS Weishanhu, continued sailing off the Australian mainland's southern coast westward since it arrived from the eastern seaboard on February 27.

The latest location puts the Chinese ships within Australia's 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off its southwest coast. They have remained outside Australia's territorial waters that extend 12 nautical miles from its shores during this deployment.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which establishes a regime of law and order in the world's oceans and seas, states that all countries enjoy the freedom of navigation in the EEZ as it covers the waters beyond the territorial sea of any country.

[X-Files]

From 8 months ago. If we were seriously wargaming this, an America map for Beijing operations (denial of deployment platforms) should be included if only as a supplement.

Map shows Chinese-owned farmland next to 19 US military bases in ‘alarming’ threat to national security: experts

China has been buying up strategically placed farmland next to military installations across the US, raising national security fears over potential espionage or even sabotage.

The Post has identified 19 bases across the US from Florida to Hawaii which are in close proximity to land bought up by Chinese entities and could be exploited by spies working for the communist nation.

[X-Files]

Imperial Japan’s decision to launch a surprise campaign across the Pacific in December 1941 was militarily brilliant. Its main goal was to secure oil reserves in the Dutch East Indies—today’s Indonesia—to replace the oil it could no longer import from the United States because of embargoes resulting from the Second Sino-Japanese War.¹ Striking directly at those reserves would have likely caused the United States and Great Britain to join the conflict on terms more favorable to themselves. Hence, Japan chose to weaken the Allied forces across the Pacific before going after their oil prize.² Imperial Japan’s initial campaigns have valuable lessons for considering how China might use its military to seize Taiwan today.

 

China Might Look at Imperial Japan’s Strategy for Victory | Proceedings - March 2025 Vol. 151/2/1,465

[Tim the Tank Nut]

China may ought to look at how Japan's strategy worked out in the longer run.  Even if the surprise campaign was "militarily brilliant" I'm pretty sure it qualifies as the political/strategic screwup of the Pacific century.

[sunday]

1 minute ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

China may ought to look at how Japan's strategy worked out in the longer run.  Even if the surprise campaign was "militarily brilliant" I'm pretty sure it qualifies as the political/strategic screwup of the Pacific century.

Most important difference is that the industrial might would be on the Chinese side, this time.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

That's very true to some degree but I'm not certain that it matters as much as it seems.

China's industrial might is amazing and it is a real geo-strategic threat but the Chinese economy is VERY dependent on exports and for the most basic things it isn't self supporting.

China under Xi has to be worried that Trump will succeed in the re-alignment.  If the USA re-centers and does focus then China's global ambitions will most likely fail.

That brings the question: "Why does China have such global ambitions?"  The expansion of Chinese power comes in a typical bullying and aggressive faction.  The Belt and Road initiative serves as an example of how China does things.  Outside of China is still is an "internet" world and other nations can clearly see the examples of Chinese assistance.  There will always be men in charge that can be bought but the price will go ever higher.  Deals with China are very Faustian in nature.

[futon]

38 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

China may ought to look at how Japan's strategy worked out in the longer run.  Even if the surprise campaign was "militarily brilliant" I'm pretty sure it qualifies as the political/strategic screwup of the Pacific century.

Opinions vary. A fundamental premise has been that the US wanted a weak Japan while Japan wanted to beat its regional competitors who principally was the SU. The closer Japan got towards overcoming regional competition, the more the US pressured Japan. While the SU won against Japan in the Summer of 1939, it didn't want to get into another fight with Japan directly. But it still resisted Japan by aiding the CKS's Nationalist Chinese. By mid 1940, CKS's Nationalists Chinese were on the verge of capitulation while the Wang Regime had been established with SU support being used up. That was when FDR's US rushed lines of credits to CKS Nationalist's Chinese and started applying diplomatic and economic penalties on Japan. In one way or the other I guess war was inevitable. Despite all that and the triumph of the US. China became red. Korea cut in half. DPRK. Vietnam Wars. Taiwan massacre, CKS dictorship and identity issue. Such bad results, blinded by the normalization of it, surely qualify as the political/strategic screwup as now the "saved China" that has not had a single year of democracy challenges the US world order left and right with pundits analysis on the threat wildly inconclusive from over confident to end of the world conclusions.

Maybe should have just left Asia matters alone.

Edited March 7 by futon

[RETAC21]

Sal's take, very interesting