Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratlys

[Nobu]

I would agree that another Sino-Japanese war would be a complete disaster.

 

As far as Japan's overdue accession to permanent UNSC status, I believe China will take a rational approach to negotiations, especially now and in the future when China has more economic interests at stake.

 

Although the decision by Chinese consumers to purchase 2.4 MILLION (?!) GM cars in 2010 raises some serious questions regarding Chinese rationality

 

Populist issues such as Giants versus Dodgers always become less important once the worries that come with economic success start.

Edited August 19, 2011 by Nobu

[X-Files]

The Philippines and Vietnam each received warships Tuesday to beef up their navies as they face tensions with China over disputed islands, raising the prospect of a deepening arms race in the South China Sea.

The two Southeast Asian nations also are shopping for additional military assets, including submarines for Vietnam and air defense radars for the Philippines, as the impoverished nations try to gain leverage with their huge northern neighbor while staying within their budgets.

The Philippines has turned to second-hand U.S. hardware: A decommissioned U.S. Coast Guard cutter was formally unveiled Tuesday in Manila port as the most modern vessel in the dilapitated Philippine fleet. Vietnam, meanwhile, received its second, brand new Russian-made guided missile cruiser in the Cam Ranh naval port on Monday, state media reported.

 

Read more at the San Francisco Examiner: http://www.sfexaminer.com/news/2011/08/philippines-vietnam-get-warships-china-spat#ixzz1VuUQidhd

[Corinthian]

Did I read that right? Vietnam has a CG?

 

Wow.

 

On one of the dailies today: President No-Balls unveils Philippine military equipment shortlist which includes...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...wait for it...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...submarines.

 

BWUHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAAHAHAHA!

 

OMG, when I saw it, I just laughed and laughed and laughed!

 

Imagine that: us, thinking - *thinking* - of having submarines.

 

Like we have experience to use subs.

 

WE COULDN'T EVEN AFFORD A SQUADRON OF FIGHTER PLANES! OR EVEN DECENT ARTILLERY FOR THE TROOPS!

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAA!

 

Oh man, I'm in stitches - STITCHES I TELL YE!

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! *sniff* HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAaaaaaaaaaay... ...submarines. *chuckle*

Edited August 24, 2011 by TomasCTT

[X-Files]

Did I read that right? Vietnam has a CG?

 

2nd Frigate -

 

As Associated Press (AP) reported, Vietnam received a second Russian-built guided missile frigate of the Gepard-class on Monday.

 

The Vietnamese Navy welcomed the newest member of its growing fleet at the Cam Ranh naval port in central Vietnam. The frigate, which was built by the Russian JSC Zelenodolsk Shipyard, will enter service under the name “Ngo Quyen” (HQ-012).

 

Vietnam took delivery of the first ship of this class, the “Dinh Tien Hoang”, in March 2011. The Gepard-class vessels are expected to significantly improve the capabilities of the Vietnamese Navy. According to the Thanh Nien newspaper, Navy commander Nguyen Van Hien explained that the vessels would increase “the combative strength as well as the capability of managing and defending the country’s sea sovereignty.”

 

The Vietnamese naval fleet, to a large extent, is made up of Russian-built, as well as a few US- or indigenously built vessels. The two Vietnamese frigates, which are based on the Russian design of the late 1980s, though only one ship was built and introduced by the Russian Navy, were ordered in 2006 and completed in 2010 and 2011.

 

http://www.defpro.com/daily/details/868/?SID=42a981032a5955bc239094c47e00c995

[chino]

 

...submarines.

 

Like we have experience to use subs.

 

WE COULDN'T EVEN AFFORD A SQUADRON OF FIGHTER PLANES! OR EVEN DECENT ARTILLERY FOR THE TROOPS!

 

First off, your military probably made those recommendations, not your Pres.

 

And here's a theory why they made these recommendations :

 

PH is not about to lose an island to any of the insurgent groups, and no foreign powers - not even China - has any reason to want to invade PH. So there may not be an urgent need to buy heavy land-based weapons.

 

You are, however, about to lose your offshore islands (if you can call the Spratlys "islands") to the PLAN. So maybe that's why priority is given to this over the land-based needs?

 

A sub is not necessarily an expensive state-of-the-art item etc since it is in essence a boat.

 

EDIT: Singapore's first 4 subs are (then) 25 years old ex-swedish Sjoormen.

Edited August 26, 2011 by chino

[Corinthian]

First off, your military probably made those recommendations, not your Pres.

 

The fact that Prez No-Balls unveiled it publicly sez that he's just as idiotic as the military chaps who dreamed of subs....

 

The list was probably made by guys who had their heads in one of the myriad of stupid .mil-centric forums out there populated by Filipino kids who dream up of stupid names for stupid divisions with stupid TO&Es who read too much Tom Clancy, pro'lly masturbating over .mil-porn in those books. I personally know a couple of such people.

 

And here's a theory why they made these recommendations :

 

PH is not about to lose an island to any of the insurgent groups, and no foreign powers - not even China - has any reason to want to invade PH. So there may not be an urgent need to buy heavy land-based weapons.

 

You are, however, about to lose your offshore islands (if you can call the Spratlys "islands") to the PLAN. So maybe that's why priority is given to this over the land-based needs?

 

A sub is not necessarily an expensive state-of-the-art item etc since it is in essence a boat.

 

EDIT: Singapore's first 4 subs are (then) 25 years old ex-swedish Sjoormen.

 

You missed my point. My point was we cannot afford to give our troops decent equipment. And now we are pining for submarines. And if we do indeed get subs, they'll most likely be found 99.99% of the time tied at the pier, inoperational, because there isn't money to use them.

 

We had issues with the Emilio Jacinto (ex-Peacock) class boats years ago. Of the three, 2 were running and one was in port most of the time to act as "spares." And these are simple patrol boats. What more if these were subs....

 

Not to mention that we have zero experience in manning subs.

 

I'd rather have the country focus on building up a credible surface fleet (i.e., missile boats) and aircraft rather than go buy subs which will be pier queens.

 

Besides, considering how our .mil procurement works, of the $$$$$$$ for the equipment, $$$ will go to the pockets of the .mil officers who will have their hands in the .mil-update cookie jar. So "big ticket items" such as subs is just an invitation for further corruption.

[chino]

..... And these are simple patrol boats. What more if these were subs....

 

Got it.

[TonyE]

The list was probably made by guys who had their heads in one of the myriad of stupid .mil-centric forums out there populated by Filipino kids who dream up of stupid names for stupid divisions with stupid TO&Es who read too much Tom Clancy, pro'lly masturbating over .mil-porn in those books. I personally know a couple of such people.

 

So i take it that Tomas is not in favour of the 163rd "Thundering Green Dagger of Pangasinan" Armoured Division (with six brigades of T-90s and BMP3s) and the 834th "Fires of Mount Pinatubo" Mechanised Parachute Marine Assault Division....not to mention the Metro Manila Elite Armoured Assault Guards Division equiped with the indiginous philipino PM12 "Red Eaglewolf" Heavy Tank with 140mm gun?

[pikachu]

So i take it that Tomas is not in favour of the 163rd "Thundering Green Dagger of Pangasinan" Armoured Division (with six brigades of T-90s and BMP3s) and the 834th "Fires of Mount Pinatubo" Mechanised Parachute Marine Assault Division....not to mention the Metro Manila Elite Armoured Assault Guards Division equiped with the indiginous philipino PM12 "Red Eaglewolf" Heavy Tank with 140mm gun?

 

Bah, who needs all that? According to Neal Stephenson the sonic megacannon on a typical (if there is such a thing) jeepney has a range of hundreds of miles and can beach entire schools of dolphins. And if the now-deaf PLA shocktroopers manage not to beach themselves in sympathetic suicide, just play My Way on loudspeakers and the entire Filipino male population will instantly turn into invincible knife-wielding berserkers.

[Corinthian]

So i take it that Tomas is not in favour of the 163rd "Thundering Green Dagger of Pangasinan" Armoured Division (with six brigades of T-90s and BMP3s) and the 834th "Fires of Mount Pinatubo" Mechanised Parachute Marine Assault Division....not to mention the Metro Manila Elite Armoured Assault Guards Division equiped with the indiginous philipino PM12 "Red Eaglewolf" Heavy Tank with 140mm gun?

 

Sometimes Le Tony, I wonder if you have really been here for a few days. You seem to know so much of the country....

 

If you find yourself inexplicably coming over, do tell me, and I'll try to show you some MARINES(!) and their equipment (even if these be gateguards)

 

 

Bah, who needs all that? According to Neal Stephenson the sonic megacannon on a typical (if there is such a thing) jeepney has a range of hundreds of miles and can beach entire schools of dolphins. And if the now-deaf PLA shocktroopers manage not to beach themselves in sympathetic suicide, just play My Way on loudspeakers and the entire Filipino male population will instantly turn into invincible knife-wielding berserkers.

 

 

That reminds me of one time, I heard what sounded like pigs squealing as they were slaughtered and children shouting and such. Turns out the sound was from a horn of a passing jeepney.

[jakec]

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August 31, 2011 6:48 pm

 

 

China confronts Indian navy vessel

By Ben Bland in Hanoi and Girija Shivakumar in New Delhi

 

A Chinese warship confronted an Indian navy vessel shortly after it left a Vietnamese port in late July in the first such encounter between the two countries’ navies in the South China Sea.

 

The unidentified Chinese warship demanded that India’s INS Airavat, an amphibious assault vessel, identify itself and explain its presence in what it said were Chinese waters, shortly after it completed a scheduled port call in Vietnam.

 

 

More

 

On this story

• China’s first aircraft carrier takes to sea
• Tensions increase in South China Sea dispute
• US senators warn Beijing on South China Sea
• FT series China shapes the world
• Moves to ease tension in South China Sea

Indian officials said the ship was 44 nautical miles off the Vietnamese coast, considered to be within Vietnam’s economic zone, when it was hailed by the Chinese vessel on July 22. It was travelling from one Vietnamese port to another.

 

This latest example of China’s naval assertiveness has irked defence officials in India and Vietnam. China claims the South China Sea in its entirety, rejecting partial claims by Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan over the resource-rich region.

 

“Any navy in the world has full freedom to transit through these waters or high seas,” said one Indian official familiar with the encounter. “For any country to proclaim ownership or question the right to passage by any other nation is unacceptable.”

 

Vietnam’s foreign ministry acknowledged that the INS Airavat visited the country from July 19-22, but said it had no information about the incident. The Chinese defence and foreign ministries declined comment, as did the Indian government.

 

China’s projection of maritime power, especially into the Indian Ocean, has raised national security concerns in New Delhi, which has raised the incident with Beijing.

 

Hanoi is also upset by what it believes to be a deliberate provocation by Beijing, according to foreign diplomats, who said the implication of the naval challenge was that China believes it is entitled to police the South China Sea.

 

China and Vietnam have been trying to mend fences ever since Hanoi claimed in May that Chinese patrol boats had sabotaged Vietnamese oil exploration vessels. On Monday Vietnam’s deputy defence minister, Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi Vinh, concluded a high-profile visit to Beijing, where he met General Liang Guanglie, China’s defence minister. Both sides agreed to increase military co-operation and set up a military hotline.

 

An unprecedented series of anti-China protests broke out in Hanoi in June, with the clear acquiescence of Vietnam’s omnipresent security officials. The government only recently cracked down on the demonstrations.

 

“Vietnam has to find a delicate balance in raising its concerns over territorial issues while not pushing China too far,” said one Asian diplomat.

 

Rising tensions have also attracted the attention of Washington. Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, angered Beijing last year by insisting that the South China Sea was of strategic importance to the US and offering to act as a mediator.

 

 

[X-Files]

Worried by an increasingly assertive China, India has ramped up investment in its Navy and Air Force. Will it be enough to protect its own backyard?

http://the-diplomat.com/2011/09/11/india-beefs-up-for-great-game/

[chino]

http://the-diplomat.com/2011/09/11/india-beefs-up-for-great-game/

"India beefs up for great game".

Hurrah. And then followed by this picture of someone armed with a 1950's Sterling SMG. hmmm...

Edited September 12, 2011 by chino

[Archie Pellagio]

"India beefs up for great game".

Hurrah. And then followed by this picture of someone armed with a 1950's Sterling SMG. hmmm...

 

The arms race they're talking about will mean he actually gets a magazine and some ammunition for it too!

[tankerwanabe]

Great timing for the Indian Navy. Seems to me that their Air Force was hogging up the country's entire budget.

[Colin]

the tech curve on SMG's has not been great enough to bother swapping them with something else. Although having carried the Canadian version of the Sterling for many years and having fired the Uzi, I would take the Uzi over the sterling any day.

 

The lesser nations need to invest in minelayers and anti-ship/sub mines. You may not be able to stop the Chinese, but you can deny them easy passage.

[RETAC21]

the tech curve on SMG's has not been great enough to bother swapping them with something else. Although having carried the Canadian version of the Sterling for many years and having fired the Uzi, I would take the Uzi over the sterling any day.

 

The lesser nations need to invest in minelayers and anti-ship/sub mines. You may not be able to stop the Chinese, but you can deny them easy passage.

 

And in the process cut off a major sealine!! Submarines are a good investment as the Chinese are still lacking in ASW.

[Josh]

Mines would be optimal. That shallow ocean basin was made for them. Miget subs might be worth while in that environment as well; something like what the DPRK and Iran opperate. Dozen guys with four torpedos; if they sink anything its win-win regardless of whether they get home. PLAN ASW is probably their weakest link and one they can't easily plug in those waters no mater how much money and men they throw at the problem; ditto counter mine warfare. For the main parties at stake, PI and Vietnam, blocking the sea lanes, even *all* of the sea lanes, makes perfect sense: it hurts their economy far less than China's and disrupts global markets (though any war would accomplish that), further damaging China's economy and, much more importantly, forcing the USN into the fray. I bet you could convert a catameran ferry into a fast bitchin' mine layer with just a lot of hand trucks if it had a stern ramp.

 

As to the US not getting involved: it will do its best not to, but anything that disrupts international trade and freedom of the seas isn't going to be tolerated for more than an incident or two, so if the shooting starts, its important for the PLAN to rapid advance their goals and they blame someone else and back off. For the next decade, the dominant power in the SCS is the USN. After that, we'll see how all the economics shake out; lots could change in either direction.

[chino]

Although having carried the Canadian version of the Sterling for many years and having fired the Uzi, I would take the Uzi over the sterling any day.

 

Having pointed out the antiquity of the Sterling, I must add I love its classic looks, along with the L1A1 SLR.

 

Sorry for going off topic. Back to the Spratlys...

[X-Files]

BEIJING — China on Thursday angrily demanded the Obama administration cancel its plans to upgrade Taiwan’s aging fleet of F-16 fighter jets, warning that the decision will harm U.S.-China ties overall and military cooperation between the two countries.

 

A statement Thursday on the Chinese foreign ministry’s website, and an article on the website of Xinhua, the official news agency here, said China’s Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun summoned U.S. Ambassador Gary Locke to lodge a “strong protest.” Xinhua said China’s ambassador in Washington, Zhang Yesui, also lodged a protest.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/china-denounced-us-arms-deal-for-taiwan/2011/09/21/gIQADDIemK_story.html

 

 

 

India [ Images ] is right to forcefully reject Chinese claims of sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. It should now build credible strategic partnerships with other regional States to prevent a Chinese dominance, says Harsh V Pant.

 

 

As reported by London's [ Images ] Financial Times a few days back, an unidentified Chinese warship had demanded that the INS Airavat, an amphibious assault vessel, identify itself and explain its presence in the South China Sea after the vessel left Vietnamese waters in late July.

 

The Indian warship was completing a scheduled port call in Vietnam and was in international waters. Though the Indian Navy promptly denied that a Chinese warship had confronted its assault vessel, it did not completely deny the factual basis of the report.

 

Sino-Indian strategic relationship is rapidly evolving and tensions are building up as was underlined in an incident in 2009 when an Indian kilo class submarine and Chinese warships, on their way to the Gulf of Aden to patrol the pirate-infested waters, reportedly engaged in rounds of maneuvering as they tried to test for weaknesses in each other's sonar systems.

 

http://www.rediff.com/news/column/column-india-needs-to-stake-its-own-claims-in-east-asia/20110923.htm

 

 

India is being pulled into a complex and increasingly tense territorial dispute in the South China Sea, with China repeatedly warning ONGC, the Indian state oil company, that its joint exploration plans with Vietnam amount to a violation of Chinese sovereignty.

 

The Indian government responded to the latest Chinese warnings Thursday by repeating its pledge to continue exploring for energy in the South China Sea, where China is embroiled in territorial disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904563904576586620948411618.html

 

 

 

The Philippines is engaged in a muscle-flexing row with China over oil drilling in the South China Sea, writes Andy Higgins at the Washington Post. So are India and Vietnam, reports Ishaan Thardoor at Time, who wonders whether war is possible between China and India.

 

http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/20/to_assert_its_oil_claims_china_doesnt_need_a_big_navy

[tankerwanabe]

Well well well. Looks like the PRC is staring at a kid just as big as he is.

 

Like I said before, a strategic alliance between India, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and other Pacific Rim nations should be formed.

 

There's a lot of oil in the Spratleys area for everyone.

 

Not just for China.

[Corinthian]

Like I said before, a strategic alliance between India, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and other Pacific Rim nations should be formed.

 

OT...

 

Historically,* India had quite an influence in the SEA region, with Hindu culture/religion being pervasive in pre-Hispanic Philippines. Ancient deities worshipped by my ancestors were either Allah or Hindu gods.

 

* - recently bought a book on pre-hispanic Philippine history.

[Nobu]

Like I said before, a strategic alliance between India, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and other Pacific Rim nations should be formed.

I don't see Japan entering into a strategic anything with welfare states like India and Vietnam.

[tankerwanabe]

OT...

 

Historically,* India had quite an influence in the SEA region, with Hindu culture/religion being pervasive in pre-Hispanic Philippines. Ancient deities worshipped by my ancestors were either Allah or Hindu gods.

 

* - recently bought a book on pre-hispanic Philippine history.

 

And of course, the spread of Buddhism to the Far East including China. I'm hoping that the influence of India will continue to spread as it appears that the influence of the United States have recently reduced.

 

...At least as recent as the Chinese have stayed away from Middle East oil.

[Marek Tucan]

Well well well. Looks like the PRC is staring at a kid just as big as he is.

 

Like I said before, a strategic alliance between India, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and other Pacific Rim nations should be formed.

 

There's a lot of oil in the Spratleys area for everyone.

 

Not just for China.

 

Greater Asia Co-prosperity Sphere?