Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys

[Tim the Tank Nut]

I'd like to gloat but our ship drivers have done it, too.

Maybe they are trying to grow their own Nimitz...

[Ssnake]

Three-body problem.

[Ol Paint]

6 hours ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

I'd like to gloat but our ship drivers have done it, too.

Maybe they are trying to grow their own Nimitz...

Sorry, Tim, I missed the last time a USN and USCG ship collided at speed while trying to ram* a Jamaican coast guard boat in  Montego Bay.

The USN has been involved in its fair share of incidents, but running into a USCG cutter while apparently trying to sink* another nation's ship hasn't been a thing since the age of sail.  Let's not conflate things like the Fitzgerald with deliberate aggressive maneuvering in daylight as was done here.

This is a prime example of FAFO or "play stupid games, win stupid prizes."  Not unlike the EP-3E incident off Hainan Island.

Doug

* Based on the video evidence so far.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

then I shall gloat freely and not feel bad about it.

I have no concern for the Chinese or their feelings so it'll be okay.  I was mostly thinking of ship collisions from a long time ago but the Fitzgerald incident, isn't that the one where the bridge crew was having a tiff and stopped comunicating?

[futon]

Vietnam jacked up its own island making in the SCS.

...

This recent effort brings Việt Nam’s total reclaimed and dredged area in the Biển Đông to approximately 2,360 acres (over 9.5 km²). While this is still about half of China’s total of 4,650 acres, it represents a significant narrowing of the gap and a major shift in the physical landscape of the disputed waters. [5]

While China built the three largest artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago, Việt Nam now controls the next three largest: bãi Thuyền Chài (Barque Canada Reef), bãi Nam Yết (Namyit Island), and đá Phan Vinh (Pearson Reef). [6] The expansion of bãi Thuyền Chài is particularly significant; as of June 2024, it had been reclaimed to a length of 4,318 meters, giving it the potential to host a 3,000-meter runway similar to those on China’s main bases.

Currently, Việt Nam has only one 1,300-meter runway in the Spratly Islands, which is sufficient for its current military aircraft.

...

https://www.thevietnamese.org/2025/08/record-breaking-island-building-signals-vietnams-stronger-south-china-sea-stance/

[X-Files]

The Philippines' western allies are lining up to voice opposition to China's plan to declare an "environmental zone" around Scarborough Shoal, a land feature in the Philippine EEZ that China has occupied since 2012. Manila views the declaration as a pretext, designed to extend Chinese sovereignty over Philippine territory, and a new excuse to allow the China Coast Guard to refuse access for Philippine artisanal fishermen. The news may be especially concerning for the Philippines given a reported buildup of up-armed Chinese patrol boats around Scarborough in recent weeks. 

Philippines Pushes Back on Chinese "Nature Reserve" in Philippine Waters

[X-Files]

Place your bets - antagonism, poor seamanship or both?

 

Philippines says Chinese ship ‘deliberately rammed’ government boat in South China Sea | Asia Pacific | The Guardian

 

The Philippines said a Chinese coast guard ship “fired its water cannon” at the BRP Datu Pagbuaya, a vessel belonging to Manila’s fisheries bureau, at 9.15am on Sunday.

“Just three minutes later … the same [Chinese] vessel deliberately rammed the stern” of the Philippine boat, “causing minor structural damage but no injuries to the crew”, the statement said.

“Despite these bullying tactics and aggressive actions … we will not be intimidated or driven away.”

Beijing blamed the Philippines for the collision. Liu Dejun, a Chinese coast guard spokesperson, said the Philippine ship “ignored repeated stern warnings from the Chinese side, and dangerously approached” the other ship.

Manila’s coast guard said the incident took place near Thitu Island, part of the Spratly island group where Beijing has sought to assert its sovereignty claims for years.

[X-Files]

From two days ago

A Navy fighter jet and a helicopter crashed in the South China Sea in separate incidents on Sunday, the Navy said. Crew members from both aircraft were safely rescued.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fa-18-sea-hawk-helicopter-crash-south-china-sea/?ftag=YHF4eb9d17

 

Hmmmmm

Did China Down Two U.S. Navy Aircraft in South China Sea? | RealClearDefense

 

 

[Josh]

Anytime a headline asks a qu, the answer is “no”.

[X-Files]

 

China deepens challenge to U.S. power in the Pacific with its biggest and most advanced aircraft carrier
China’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier has entered service, Chinese state media said, in a major step for the world’s largest navy.

Read in NBC News: https://apple.news/ArAdimY2ySOGm7AwQHB5PKQ

[X-Files]

Via the Washington Post

China's Fujian aircraft carrier threatens U.S. dominance in Pacific - The Washington Post

China’s new aircraft supercarrier challenges U.S. dominance in Pacific

The Fujian and its strike group represent a strategic game changer that will bring Beijing closer to its goal of eroding U.S. maritime primacy in its backyard.

13 minutes ago

[Josh]

Fujian is hardly the most dangerous tool in the box. It and the LSDs/LPDs seem more designed for global far off operations rather than anything directed at the U.S. The huge build up of ballistic missiles and remote sensing satellite constellations seem far more relevant to the U.S.

[X-Files]

TAIPEI/BEIJING, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Taiwan remained on high alert on Wednesday after China staged massive military drills around the island the previous day, keeping its emergency maritime response centre running as it monitored Chinese naval manoeuvres, the coast guard said.

The exercises named "Justice Mission 2025" saw China fire dozens of rockets towards Taiwan and deploy a large number of warships and aircraft near the island, in a show of force that drew concern from Western allies.

Taiwan stays on high alert as Chinese ships pull back after massive drills

[X-Files]

• Maritime Incident: The Philippine coast guard intercepted the Chinese deep-sea vessel CRV Tan Suo Er Hao about 24 miles off Cagayan, citing potential violation of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) under UNCLOS.
• Vessel Capabilities: The 285-foot ship, operated by China’s Institute of Deep-Sea Science and Engineering, is equipped with 13 laboratories, advanced navigation, and submersibles capable of diving up to 33,000 feet, raising concerns about dual-use for scientific and military intelligence.
• Diplomatic Dispute: The Philippines emphasizes sovereignty and maritime law enforcement, while China claims international passage rights, highlighting ongoing tensions over the South China Sea territorial claims.
•  
• US ally intercepts Chinese research ship near coast

[Josh]

What has the Trump administration responded with?

[X-Files]

• Amphibious Operations: The Type 075 warship CNS Hainan returned to a southern China naval base after participating in Justice Mission 2025, a drill simulating a Taiwan blockade and port seizure.
• Strategic Context: Beijing claims Taiwan as its own and aims to “fight and win a war” over the island by 2027, deploying amphibious ships capable of island landings.
• Military Capabilities: China operates four Type 075 ships, each able to carry helicopters, amphibious vehicles, and landing craft, highlighting the PLA Navy’s growing amphibious combat strength.

Satellites capture Chinese invasion ship after drills near Taiwan