Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys

[Corinthian]

On 6/23/2024 at 1:01 AM, Tim the Tank Nut said:

you just have to wonder what the Chinese think when they write their press releases.  It reminds me of old school North Korean propaganda.  The vicious running dogs of the Phillipine Islands threaten the peace loving Peoples Democratic Institution of China type crap.  This last bit of Chinese Piracy is what they have planed for everyone else in their neighborhood, too.

We need an Operation Pedestal sized reuspply to the LST stranded in the Pacific (send paint, too).

The ChiComs have recently upped their propaganda by saying it was Philippine vessels that have been damaging coral reefs in the South China Sea by conducting resupply efforts to the BRP Sierra Madre. 🤣

 

Big claims considering how much damage the ChiComs have done to the South China Sea by dredging sand and piling these on atolls and rocks to turn into bases, thus destroying the corals at the area, not to mention their parasitic/predatory fishing fleets that do poaching of Philippine territorial waters and other nations' seas.

[Corinthian]

17 hours ago, futon said:

MANILA, Philippines – The Philippines and Japan on Monday, July 8, signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), a deal that would make it easier for the militaries of both countries to train and operate in each other’s soil.

...

https://www.rappler.com/philippines/japan-sign-military-access-pact-july-2024/

For those still wondering about Philippine relations with Japan despite the memory of WW2, anime, JAV, and tourism has largely changed any negative Filipino perceptions on Japan and the Japanese. Although you'll hear from time to time the brutality of the Japanese during WW2, that rarely comes up. The Philippines has long forgiven Japan. Relations between both countries have been more than cordial for several decades.

[Corinthian]

On 6/23/2024 at 10:13 AM, futon said:

Whatever they are thinking, its a demonstation of an attitude that they have that one just cannot concede to without a fight. But I fear a half-ass effort like in Ukraine is possible. People still want economic ties with China and that becomes the leverage China plays to push these grey zone activities that are based off of blantant intention to physical expand total control over SCS and Taiwan.

Beijing is so devoted to its "Them vs Us" narration that it cannot afford to reduce such rhetoric based on nationalism, especially when China is experiencing economic hardships and increasing albeit controllable unrest among the poorer (and more numerous) segment of the population.

[futon]

5 hours ago, Corinthian said:

The ChiComs have recently upped their propaganda by saying it was Philippine vessels that have been damaging coral reefs in the South China Sea by conducting resupply efforts to the BRP Sierra Madre. 🤣

 

Big claims considering how much damage the ChiComs have done to the South China Sea by dredging sand and piling these on atolls and rocks to turn into bases, thus destroying the corals at the area, not to mention their parasitic/predatory fishing fleets that do poaching of Philippine territorial waters and other nations' seas.

Where's Sea Shepherd when you need them.

[futon]

5 hours ago, Corinthian said:

For those still wondering about Philippine relations with Japan despite the memory of WW2, anime, JAV, and tourism has largely changed any negative Filipino perceptions on Japan and the Japanese. Although you'll hear from time to time the brutality of the Japanese during WW2, that rarely comes up. The Philippines has long forgiven Japan. Relations between both countries have been more than cordial for several decades.

Well, you quoted me in reply while mentioning the history, but I'm going to practice self-censorship this time around. For the future. Loser Imperial Japan.

[X-Files]

 

South China Sea claims, by country

Edited July 9 by X-Files

[X-Files]

On 11/4/2023 at 2:18 PM, TrustMe said:

Or an AK47 clone   

   Bra, do you even Norinco?

[X-Files]

I know it's all Hip & Cool to slag on 'merica and it's citizens as Imperial Dolts, but I've found that younger Chinese (particularly in academic environments) share the same GimmeDat mentality as Beijing. These Apt Pupils will eventually be taking the reins, ya know?

I called the gameboard and players in this Charlie Foxtrot 13 years ago and don't expect any enlightenment to descend upon the Chinese.

 

 

Edited July 9 by X-Files

[Tim the Tank Nut]

best video line of all time to reference how things are

[X-Files]

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy Shandong Carrier Strike Group is now operating in the Philippine Sea, marking the first time this year that the aircraft carrier has deployed outside of the South China Sea.
The last deployment to the Philippine Sea was in October and November of last year. A joint PLAN-Russian Navy patrol is also currently operating in the Philippine Sea, while Russia also dispatched two corvettes on Monday for an Indo-Pacific deployment.

On Tuesday, carrier CNS Shandong (17), cruiser CNS Yan’an (106), destroyer CNS Guilin (164) and frigate CNS Yuncheng (571) were sighted sailing in an area 323 miles southeast of Miyako Island, according to a news release from Japan’s Joint Staff Office.

Shandong was also observed conducting flight operations with its fighter aircraft and helicopters, according to the release. Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Akebono (DD-108) monitored Shandong and Japan Air Self-Defense Force fighter aircraft scrambled in response to the carrier’s fighter launches, according to the JSO relwase.

Chinese Carrier Strike Group Operating in Philippine Sea - USNI News

[Corinthian]

On 7/9/2024 at 2:19 PM, Corinthian said:

For those still wondering about Philippine relations with Japan despite the memory of WW2, anime, JAV, and tourism has largely changed any negative Filipino perceptions on Japan and the Japanese. Although you'll hear from time to time the brutality of the Japanese during WW2, that rarely comes up. The Philippines has long forgiven Japan. Relations between both countries have been more than cordial for several decades.

 

As expected, political party Gabriela through its representatives in the House of Reps protested against the signing of the new agreement between Japan and the Philippines. That was the only protest on the agreement I heard. Ask the common Filipino and they'll just shrug being largely ignorant about it.

 

The new agreement will have to pass scrutiny in the Senate but I reckon it'll be approved in the end. 

 

I haven't read the agreement but there's a CSIS talk that mentions this and the Japanese talking head said it basically just provides legal protections to Japanese SDF personnel when in the Philippines for exercises, HADR ops, etc. because the last time Japanese SDF personnel were here for a HADR op, there was no legal protection for them.

 

It's still an important step as it means Japanese SDF peeps can train with Philippine troops in the Philippines like the current USA and Philippine exercises.

[futon]

4 hours ago, Corinthian said:

 

As expected, political party Gabriela through its representatives in the House of Reps protested against the signing of the new agreement between Japan and the Philippines. That was the only protest on the agreement I heard. Ask the common Filipino and they'll just shrug being largely ignorant about it.

 

The new agreement will have to pass scrutiny in the Senate but I reckon it'll be approved in the end. 

 

I haven't read the agreement but there's a CSIS talk that mentions this and the Japanese talking head said it basically just provides legal protections to Japanese SDF personnel when in the Philippines for exercises, HADR ops, etc. because the last time Japanese SDF personnel were here for a HADR op, there was no legal protection for them.

 

It's still an important step as it means Japanese SDF peeps can train with Philippine troops in the Philippines like the current USA and Philippine exercises.

There's a lot of important points to this agreement.

It's the first country in the region to make this agreement with. Any capability gaps that the Philippines has, Japan can help plug it in. Air defense, for example. It'll make it easier to extend to reach in volume the JMSDF further down south by being able to make greater use of naval ports in the Philippines. If it becomes a strengthed long chain made of the of archipelagos, thus the backsides of both are well covered.

It'll also make it easier for JASDF aircraft to land and deploy from the Philippines. A test run of it when not long ago, a couple of F-15Js visited the Philippines. This is important because in the event of a Taiwan contingency, and various bases in Japan, both US and Japanese, get targeted, then there are more option to disperse to. 

The Philippines has sizable manpower but limited by low amount of equipment. Not only can JSDF train in the Philippines but also AFP in Japan. If they find common ground in some equipment, that can improve interoperability. UH-2 helicopters for example, if the Philippines wants more helicopters. Japan donated 5 TC-90 aircraft to the Philippines in the late 2010s and the pilots received the training in Japan. So they may have been on special allowance basis rather than proper law stipulations as well.

It's all for countering the PRC. If the PRC falls over on itself, then it all is no longer needed and the agreement probably should go dormant.

[futon]

The PRC yielding for now. It counts as a win for the Philippines.

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) on Sunday said the Philippines and China have reached an “understanding” on the “temporary arrangement” for the rotation and resupply (Rore) missions of daily necessities to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal.

The DFA, however, did not elaborate on the specifics of the supposed deal.

BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Navy ship deliberately grounded on the shoal in 1999, is home to a small contingent of Filipino troops and serves as an outpost securing the country’s claims in the West Philippine Sea.

“Both sides continue to recognize the need to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation and agree that the agreement will not prejudice each other’s positions in the South China Sea,” the DFA said in a statement.

...

https://www.inquirer.net/409365/ph-china-agreement-reached-on-ayungin/

[futon]

MANILA (Reuters) -- The Philippines and Germany on Sunday committed to signing a defence cooperation arrangement this year, vowing to uphold international rules-based order in the region as tensions flare over disputed areas of the South China Sea.

China and the Philippines have traded accusations in recent months over clashes in the South China Sea, including charges China intentionally rammed Manila's navy boats, seriously injuring a Filipino sailor. Beijing has disputed this, saying its actions were lawful and professional.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and his Philippine counterpart Gilberto Teodoro committed to establishing long-term relations between their armed forces to expand training and bilateral exchanges, explore opportunities to expand bilateral armaments cooperation and engage in joint projects.

...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Philippines-and-Germany-commit-to-reaching-defence-pact-this-year

[futon]

Xinhua · china.org.cn | August 14, 2024

China urges the Philippines to stop the infringement activities and provocations at Huangyan Dao at once, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday.

Spokesperson Lin Jian also said that China will continue to act resolutely in accordance with the law to firmly safeguard its national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.

Lin made the remarks when asked to comment Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Romeo Brawner's recent wrongful remarks related to China's Huangyan Dao.

Lin pointed out that Huangyan Dao has always been China's territory, and China has indisputable sovereignty over Huangyan Dao and its adjacent airspace and waters.

Philippine military aircraft twice intruded into the adjacent airspace of Huangyan Dao on Aug. 7 and 8, which gravely infringed upon China's sovereignty and violated international law and the basic norms governing international relations, Lin said.

Chinese military took necessary and lawful measures in response, and their maneuvers at the scene were professional and consistent with Chinese laws and international law, Lin said.

"Considering that it sent the military aircraft to Huangyan Dao's airspace during the joint patrol with the United States, Australia and Canada in the South China Sea, what the Philippines did with its aircraft was clearly a deliberate provocation," Lin noted.

China urges the Philippines to stop the infringement activities and provocations at Huangyan Dao at once, Lin said, adding that such wanton acts must stop.

China will continue to act resolutely in accordance with the law to firmly safeguard its national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, Lin said.

Huangyan Dao = Scarborough Shoal.

http://t.m.china.org.cn/convert/c_samJTxMz.html

Edited August 17 by futon

[futon]

The U.S. in late July announced $500 million in military aid to the Philippine Armed Forces and Coast Guard. Meanwhile, Japan and the Philippines in early August held their first joint military exercises in the South China Sea in a bid to realize "a free and open Indo-Pacific." In response, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang said on Friday that the U.S. and Japan are stirring up trouble in the South China Sea.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-08-16/China-says-U-S-and-Japan-stirring-up-trouble-in-South-China-Sea-1w7lvZAp5jW/share_amp.html

 

The above mentioned Japan-Philippines exercise was within the framework of Maritime Cooperative Activity which is indeed based off of Free and Open-Indo Pacific. It was conducted by BRP Jose Rizal and JS Sazanami on August 2nd in the South China Sea. 

https://news.goo.ne.jp/article/trafficnews/trend/trafficnews-134325.html

[futon]

SINGAPORE — China and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early Monday morning at Sabina Shoal, opening a new flash point between the two countries in the disputed South China Sea, according to officials from both countries and security analysts tracking ship movements.

In the early hours of Aug. 19, a Chinese coast guard vessel attempted to stop a Philippine ship from reaching Sabina Shoal, said Gan Yu, a spokesperson for the China Coast Guard. The Philippine ship behaved “in an unprofessional and dangerous manner, resulting in a collision,” Yu said. “Responsibility lies entirely with the Philippines,” he added.

Philippine authorities disputed this account, saying the collision was the result of “unlawful and aggressive maneuvers” by the Chinese coast guard and that the incident left the Philippine BRP Cape Engano with a hole in its deck.

In addition to the collision, a Chinese coast guard vessel rammed another Philippine vessel, the BRP Bagacay, twice, “leading to minor structural damage,” said the Philippine National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea.

While skirmishes between Chinese and Philippine vessels have been increasing in the South China Sea, Monday’s incident marks the first time in decades that the two countries have clashed over Sabina Shoal, which is among the closest maritime features in the contested Spratly island archipelago to the Philippines.

...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/18/china-philippines-sabina-shoal-collision/

[TrustMe]

Maybe the Philippines should mount a ram onboard their ships like they did before WW1  

Edited August 19 by TrustMe

[futon]

Probably would play into PRC hands. They'll put battering rams on their ships then. And so when more ramming occurs, and more deaths occur, the Coast Guard's hand is spent. The navy will have to back up the coast guard. Naturally if the Philippines Navy then gets roughed up, then it's either the US stepping up fire power support or the US does not, and then the PRC can then caputalize with additional gains in the SCS. 

[futon]

Today was another day of ramming.

MANILA, Philippines — A Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel maneuvered dangerously and repeatedly rammed a Philippine Coast Guard vessel in Escoda (Sabina) Shoal in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) on Saturday, according to the PCG.

Commodore Jay Tarriela, PCG Spokesperson for the WPS said the ramming incident between CCG vessel 5205 and BRP Teresa Magbanwa (MRP 9701) — which has been deployed in the shoal since April 15 — occurred at around 12:07 p.m. 

“China Coast Guard vessel 5205 carried out a dangerous maneuver resulting in its direct running on the port bow of MRP 9701. Obviously, the Chinese Coast Guard vessel 5205 has ignored collision regulation because of such action,” Tarriela said as he showed a video of the collision during a press conference. 

“And then what happened next after this, it would turn around and then it will reach the starboard quarter of the vessel. It will also directly and intentionally run MRP 9701 on our starboard quarter.  A few minutes after it carried out a dangerous maneuver and rammed the port bow of Teresa Magbanua,” he added. 

After this, Tarriela disclosed that the CCG vessel turned around again and rammed against the port beam of the PCG vessel. 

...

https://www.inquirer.net/412256/pcg-says-ccg-rammed-its-vessel-multiple-times-in-escoda-shoal/

 

The China Coast Guard warned the Philippines against escalating tensions in the South China Sea after a Philippine ship on Saturday noon "deliberately" crashed into a Chinese ship that was enforcing maritime rights under a routine operation.

The Philippines should bear all responsibilities for the matter, said Liu Dejun, a spokesperson for the China Coast Guard. 

According to Liu, the Philippine Navy ship No. 9701 illegally entered Xianbin Jiao at 8:02 a.m. on Saturday and has since made provocative moves. China's navy subsequently issued warnings in accordance with law and regulations, Liu added. 

"We once again warn the Philippines to face reality and give up illusions. Withdrawing the ship immediately on its own is the only correct way," the spokesperson said.

China also warned of further "necessary measures" for all sorts of provocative actions that might jeopardize China's maritime rights, underscoring its indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Qundao, including the Xianbin Jiao, and its adjacent waters. 

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-08-31/China-warns-Philippines-against-escalating-tensions-in-South-China-Sea-1ww1CD7PxTO/share_amp.html

[Tim the Tank Nut]

I am so tired of China.

I long for the days when we stood up to such tactics.  It's a wonder to me that countries can't China for what it is.

[futon]

4 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

I am so tired of China.

I long for the days when we stood up to such tactics.  It's a wonder to me that countries can't China for what it is.

Money people are China's leverage and China knows it.

 

2010 Chinese boat ramming JCG ship at Senkaku islands.

2012 Chinese ships blocking Philippines at Scarborough Shoal 

2014 through 2016 Blatant island making and massive base making in Spratly Island group in the South China Sea. Subsequent years.. those bases continually built up.

These three moments were critical and were hard brakes that shoyld have been pressed but never happened. Espicially the third. 

Those coming off the failure of Charter 08 and Liu Xiaobo back in prison. The China middle class theory was proven to not happen, yet still not hard break on trade etc. with China regarding these things. 

 

Location of today's ramming:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-coast-guard-wont-allow-china-reclamation-disputed-shoal-official-says-2024-05-13/

[Josh]

This behavior will simply continue unless someone lights up one of thier ships. Though in that case, even worse behavior follows.

[X-Files]

Japanese forces tracked Russian Navy and People’s Army Liberation Navy ships conducting separate movements on this week, while Tokyo has protested the intrusion of a Chinese survey ship into Japanese territorial waters.
On Monday, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces said at noon on Sunday, Russian Navy corvettes RFS Sovetskaya Gavan (350) and RFS Koryeyets (390) were sighted sailing west in an area about 19 miles north of Cape Soya on the main island of Hokkaido and sailed west through La Perouse Strait to the Sea of Japan. JMSDF fast attack craft JS Kumataka (PG-827) and a JMSDF P-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft tracked the Russian ship.

Russian Navy ships routinely use the strait to transit between the Sea of Japan on the west side of the strait and the Sea of Okhotsk on the east side. Japan which designates Russia, China and Korea as its primary security challenges, routinely has JMSDF ships and aircraft shadowing Russian and Chinese ships that pass near Japan.

On Sunday, PLAN destroyer CNS Jinan (152) and fleet oiler CNS Chao Hu (890) were sighted sailing southeast in an area 80 miles northeast of Miyako Island and then sailed southeast in the waters near Okinawa and Miyako and entered the Philippine Sea.

Mine countermeasure vessel JS Bungo (MST-464 and a JMSDF P-3C Orion MPA of Fleet Air Wing 5 based at Naha Air Base, Okinawa, shadowed the PLAN ships. The waters between Miyako Island and Okinawa is known as the Miyako Strait, and is around 155 miles wide, making most of the waters there international waters, PLAN ships and also Chinese military aircraft routinely transit between the East China Sea and Philippine Sea along this route. Japan plans to step up surveillance in this area with a mobile radar to be deployed to Kita Daito Island, which lies east of Okinawa, enabling Japan to effectively track movements around the Philippine Sea area near the island.

Earlier on Aug. 31, Japan’s Ministry of Defense said PLAN Shupang class survey ship Qian Weichang was sighted sailing east in Japan’s contiguous waters and subsequently entered Japan’s territorial waters southwest of Kuchinoerabu Island. The PLAN ship left Japan’s territorial waters southwest of Yakushima Island at 7.53 a.m. and then sailed south. Minesweeper JS Shishijima (MSC-691) and a JMSDF P-1 MPA of Fleet Air Wing 1 based at JMSDF Kanoya Air Base on the main island of Kyushu shadowed the PLAN ship, stated the release.

Chinese, Russian Ships Sail Near Japan; Tokyo Protests Chinese Incursion into Territorial Waters - USNI News

[X-Files]

Two German warships are set to pass through the sensitive Taiwan Strait in the middle of this month, becoming the first German naval vessels to do so in 22 years, Spiegel magazine reported on Saturday.

Reuters reported last month that the warships were awaiting orders from Berlin to sail the Strait, prompting a rebuke to Germany from Beijing.

Spiegel cited unspecified sources as saying Beijing would not be formally notified of the German ships’ passage to emphasise that Berlin views the trip as normal.

German warships to cross Taiwan Strait for first time in 22 years, defying Beijing’s warnings – Firstpost