Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys

[Josh]

6 hours ago, X-Files said:

China said Thursday its troops were “on constant high alert” after US and Canadian warships passed through the Taiwan Strait, their second joint passage in two months.

China on 'Alert' After US, Canadian Ships Cross Taiwan Strait (thedefensepost.com)

Pretty much the standard reaction whenever US or allied ships pass through the straight.

[TrustMe]

I'd be very nervous going through that passage. The US ships are well within costal anti-ship missile range, subs, fighters and combat ships.

[Stuart Galbraith]

On 10/27/2023 at 8:39 AM, Nobu said:

The risk at present, and for the forseeable future, is greater than the reward. There is no automatic victory button in Taipei for the PRC to press, except in wargames.

And you are right, but it was the same in Ukraine. Come to that, it was the same for the Germans in WW2.

The greatest problem is that sane people are trying to calculate the likelihood of insane actions. And insane has its own yardstick that its perfectly happy with.

Ive got to say, I dont think the PRC, right now, carry it off. But that doesnt mean they wont try it. It ultimately comes down to how well the PRC listens to their military men, how good their intelligence is, and ultimately, how hubristic they are.

 

[Josh]

Single man rule makes interpreting a country’s intentions more of an exercise in psychology.

[urbanoid]

On 11/1/2023 at 3:54 PM, Josh said:

I can’t imagine that’s a big concern for them. If Taiwan didn’t declare independence in the 90s when it was in a much better position to do so I can’t imagine it is on the table now, under any government.

I think the much bigger fear would be direct US involvement - either an Ukraine style lend/lease of equipment or worse, a sudden fair accompli of US troops being permanently based in Taiwan.

The best moment would likely have been after Tienanmen - if the US was on board, which... doesn't seem likely, as there was too much money to be made with Chinese cheap labor, eh?

[Josh]

The west is certainly responsible for making the monster. Two decades ago China couldn’t reliably make a ball point pen.

[TrustMe]

Or an AK47 clone   

[Stuart Galbraith]

Ive gotta say, I buy a lot of electronic stuff off the chinese, mainly RC, and frankly their soldering is shit. There may be a lot of low cost stuff worth buying of China, such as clothes, but I would run away screaming from a television or PC made by them.

[TrustMe]

90% of PC's in the world are manufactured in China.

[Nobu]

On 11/4/2023 at 5:19 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

And you are right, but it was the same in Ukraine. Come to that, it was the same for the Germans in WW2.

The greatest problem is that sane people are trying to calculate the likelihood of insane actions. And insane has its own yardstick that its perfectly happy with.

Ive got to say, I dont think the PRC, right now, carry it off. But that doesnt mean they wont try it. It ultimately comes down to how well the PRC listens to their military men, how good their intelligence is, and ultimately, how hubristic they are.

Fair regarding your first and third points.

I add to your second, Nobu's First Rule of War:

The presumption of rationality never excuses complacency  

[X-Files]

 

When US President Joe Biden recently signed off on a $80m (£64.6m) grant to Taiwan for the purchase of American military equipment, China said it "deplores and opposes" what Washington had done.

To the casual observer it didn't appear a steep sum. It was less than the cost of a single modern fighter jet. Taiwan already has on order more than $14bn worth of US military equipment. Does a miserly $80m more matter?

While fury is Beijing's default response to any military support for Taiwan, this time something was different.

The $80m is not a loan. It comes from American taxpayers. For the first time in more than 40 years, America is using its own money to send weapons to a place it officially doesn't recognise. This is happening under a programme called foreign military finance (FMF).

The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth - BBC News

 

[futon]

The government has begun discussions on the free provision of defense equipment to six “like-minded” countries’ next fiscal year under the Official Security Assistance (OSA) program, according to several government sources.

To provide material to such nations as Vietnam, Mongolia and Djibouti, the Foreign Ministry hopes to include related expenses of about ¥5 billion — 150% more than the current fiscal budget — in its fiscal plan for 2024.

The OSA is a new cooperation framework aimed at strengthening the security of countries that share common foreign policy objectives with Japan on specific issues, by providing equipment and supplies to their armed forces, while also supporting development of their respective infrastructures. The government will decide on the target countries based on their democratic principles, rules of law, respect for basic human rights and economic and social conditions.

Amid the present complex security environment, Japan is keen to enhance the security capabilities of like-minded countries in geopolitically important locations, with an eye on keeping China’s maritime expansion and military buildup in check.

Unlike Official Development Assistance (ODA), which is limited to nonmilitary assistance, the OSA — which was stipulated in the National Security Strategy revised last December — allows the provision of direct support for the militaries of certain countries. Developing nations, in principle, are eligible for such aid, which is provided under the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and its Implementation Guidelines.

Fiscal 2024’s OSA is earmarked for Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Mongolia and Djibouti.

...

For this fiscal year, the government has budgeted ¥2 billion to be dispensed to the Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Fiji. Japan intends to continue providing aid to the Philippines, deeming that nation to be in high need of assistance.

To enhance its ability to monitor territorial waters and airspace, Japan also is considering providing recipient nations with small security vessels, radar, drones and communications equipment, including radios. Final decisions regarding recipients and levels of assistance will be made after consulting with partner countries and conducting on-site surveys.

...

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20230808-128334/

 

[futon]

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The U.S., Philippine, Japanese, and South Korean militaries, along with observers from the U.K., kicked off the KAMANDAG 7 training exercise on Thursday (Nov. 9) to improve military readiness.

The exercise runs from Nov. 9-20 and will be conducted at several sites across the Philippines, including Luzon, Batanes, Zamboanga, Tawi-Tawi, and Palawan, according to a U.S. Marine Corps statement. Over 12 days, soldiers will conduct humanitarian aid and disaster relief training, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear training operations, littoral search and rescue, coastal defense training, and amphibious operations. Troops will also exchange medical expertise and participate in staff integration events.

...

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5036809

[RETAC21]

Scratch one gator:

https://x.com/TreasChest/status/1727029565954969688?s=20

[futon]

SOUTH CHINA SEA – U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 1 led by its flagship, Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), is operating in the South China Sea following a successful scheduled port visit to the Republic of Singapore.

...

CSG 1 consists of CVN 70, Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 2, Ticonderoga class guided-missile cruiser USS Princeton (CG 59) and Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 1, which includes Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Hopper (DDG 70), USS Kidd (DDG 100), USS Sterett (DDG 104), and USS William P. Lawrence (DDG 110).

Prior to entering the South China Sea, CSG-1 participated in a trilateral maritime exercise with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and Republic of Korea Navy. The exercises provided an opportunity for the three maritime forces to sail together and conduct enhanced planning and advanced maritime communication operations.

The Vinson strike group departed San Diego Oct. 12 for a scheduled deployment to the Western Pacific. Since entering the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations, the group participated in the Multi-Large Deck Event and Annual Exercise 2023 in the Philippine Sea. These exercises provided opportunities to collaborate with allied forces such as the Royal Australian Navy, Royal Canadian Navy, and JMSDF, to further strengthen regional cooperative efforts.

...

https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/3626943/carl-vinson-carrier-strike-group-conducts-maritime-operations-in-south-china-sea/

[futon]

SAN FERNANDO CITY, La Union — The Philippine Air Force (PAF) on Wednesday accepted into service a Japanese-built air surveillance radar system for the early detection of intrusions into Philippine airspace.

...

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/20/23/paf-accepts-japan-made-air-surveillance-radar-system

[futon]

A few questions from the comprehensive ASEAN survey  Yusof:

Full survey download in link: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2024-survey-report/

 

Older surveys of similar format with SCS focus posted: https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/34256-hypothetical-war-contest-for-the-spratleys/&do=findComment&comment=1522067

[futon]

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine military chief demanded Wednesday that China return several rifles and equipment seized by the Chinese coast guard in a disputed shoal and pay for damages in an assault he likened to an act of piracy in the South China Sea.

Chinese personnel on board more than eight motorboats repeatedly rammed then boarded the two Philippine navy inflatable boats Monday to prevent Filipino navy personnel from transferring food and other supplies including firearms to a Philippine territorial outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal, which is also claimed by Beijing, according to Philippine officials.

After a scuffle and repeated collisions, the Chinese seized the boats and damaged them with machetes, knives and hammers. They also seized eight M4 rifles, which were packed in cases, navigation equipment and other supplies and wounded a number of Filipino navy personnel, including one who lost his right thumb, two Philippine security officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

The two officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of a lack of authority to discuss the sensitive conflict publicly.

Video and photographs issued by the Philippine military Wednesday night show the chaotic faceoff at the shoal, with Chinese personnel onboard boats brandishing knives, axes and sticks while surrounding two Philippine navy supply boats beside Manila’s ship outpost. Sirens blare constantly as both sides yell at each other and the Chinese smash the Philippine navy boat with a pole and grab what appears to be a bag with a stick.

Pictures show a damaged Philippine navy boat with its side floaters slashed and deflated and another boat with its windshields and navigational screens shattered. A man displays a damaged cellphone.

“We are demanding that the Chinese return our rifles and our equipment and we’re also demanding that they pay for the damage they caused,” Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., head of the Philippine armed forces, said in a news conference in western Palawan province, where he pinned a medal on the wounded navy officer.

“They boarded our boats illegally and seized our equipment,” Brawner said. “They’re now like pirates with this kind of actions.”

Armed with long knives and machetes, the Chinese coast guard personnel tried to beat the unarmed Filipinos, who resisted with their bare hands by parrying the blows and pushing back the Chinese, Brawner said. “Our objective is also to prevent war.”

Some of the Chinese pointed their knives at the Filipino navy personnel, he said.

China blamed the Philippines for the confrontation, saying the Filipino personnel “trespassed” into the shoal in defiance of its warnings.

“This is the direct cause of the incident,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said in Beijing. “The Chinese coast guard at the scene has taken professional law enforcement measures with restraint aimed at stopping the illegal supply mission by the Philippine vessels and no direct measures were taken against the Philippine personnel.”

The United States renewed a warning Tuesday that it is obligated to defend the Philippines, a treaty ally.

...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/philippines-demands-china-pay-damage-hostilities-disputed-sea-rcna157992

[futon]

A Chinese amphibious warship is operating near a disputed South China Sea feature that has been the site of a standoff between Chinese and Philippine Coast Guards, USNI News has learned.

An unidentified People’s Liberation Army Navy Type 075-class landing helicopter dock was first seen by a ship spotter in satellite photos in the South China Sea on June 12. On Friday, the 36,000-ton warship stopped near Subi Reef, a reclaimed feature that now hosts a Chinese military base. By Sunday, the amphib was spotted near Sabina Shoal.

Located 72 nautical miles northwest of the Philippine island of Palawan, Sabina is claimed by Beijing under its expansive claims in the South China Sea as Chinese territorial waters. Manila considers the shoal to be within its exclusive economic zone.

The dispute at Sabina Shoal began in April when Philippine Coast Guard flagship BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) anchored at the shoal in what it claims was a move to prevent Chinese island reclamation operations. Beijing called Manila’s statement a “sheer rumor.”

In the ensuing two months since Teresa Magbanua arrival, Chinese naval forces have shadowed the cutter in growing numbers. On May 12, the Philippines identified 34 vessels around Sabina Shoal from the People’s Liberation Army Navy, China Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The deployments resulted in the first-ever Chinese naval exercise to occur in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, according to the Philippine Navy.

...

https://news.usni.org/2024/06/18/china-deploys-amphibious-warship-near-the-philippines

[futon]

China has expressed firm opposition to erroneous remarks of Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs about recent Filipino moves in the South China Sea, said a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Japan on Friday.

Japanese ministry's press release on June 18, claiming of "recent surge in tensions in the South China Sea," misrepresents the facts and unjustly accusing China, the spokesperson said, thus the Chinese side is voicing strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition and lodging a solemn protest.

The spokesperson emphasized that the rights and wrongs surrounding the recent developments at Ren'ai Jiao are clear.

Despite China's warnings, the Philippines has repeatedly attempted to illegally deliver supplies to its wrongly grounded warship, aiming to occupy Ren'ai Jiao in China's Nansha Islands for the long term.

The responsive actions of the China Coast Guard are reasonable, lawful, professional, and restrained. China will continue to respond legally to the Philippines' infringing and provocative actions, resolutely safeguarding China's sovereignty and rights, the spokesperson said.

"We firmly oppose Japan using the illegal and invalid award on the ‘South China Sea arbitration' to pressure China," he said.

The spokesperson further noted that it is widely known that the arbitral tribunal in the so-called South China Sea arbitration violated the principle of state consent, overstepped its authority, and made unjust rulings, which seriously contravened international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

China's stance has been consistent: it does not accept or recognize the ruling, nor does it accept any claims or actions based on it.

"Japan is not a party to the South China Sea issue and has no right to intervene in maritime matters between China and the Philippines. Japan should not cooperate with the US and the Philippines in ways that undermine China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, nor should it support the Philippines' illegal claims," he said.

The facts prove that there has never been an issue with freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. On the contrary, it is certain that driven by selfish interests, external countries are forming small cliques and continuously creating tensions and problems in the South China Sea, the spokesperson said.

"We sternly urge Japan to stop stirring up trouble and provoking disputes, and refrain from becoming a disruptor and troublemaker in the South China Sea," he said.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202406/21/WS6674f4caa31095c51c50a256.html

[futon]

MANILA, Philippines — Canada joined its first joint patrol with the Philippines in the South China Sea (SCS) in a multilateral maritime cooperative activity (MMCA), along with Japan and the United States, to uphold freedom of navigation and overflight amid Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the contested waters.

The Royal Canadian Navy deployed Halifax-class frigate HMCS Montreal to join the Philippine Navy’s Gregorio del Pilar-class patrol ship BRP Andres Bonifacio, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Murasame-class destroyer JS Kirisame, and the US Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson on June 16 and June 17, the US Indo-Pacific Command (Indopacom) said in a statement.

...

https://www.inquirer.net/406610/canada-holds-first-joint-patrol-with-ph-japan-us-in-scs/

[Tim the Tank Nut]

you just have to wonder what the Chinese think when they write their press releases.  It reminds me of old school North Korean propaganda.  The vicious running dogs of the Phillipine Islands threaten the peace loving Peoples Democratic Institution of China type crap.  This last bit of Chinese Piracy is what they have planed for everyone else in their neighborhood, too.

We need an Operation Pedestal sized reuspply to the LST stranded in the Pacific (send paint, too).

[futon]

Whatever they are thinking, its a demonstation of an attitude that they have that one just cannot concede to without a fight. But I fear a half-ass effort like in Ukraine is possible. People still want economic ties with China and that becomes the leverage China plays to push these grey zone activities that are based off of blantant intention to physical expand total control over SCS and Taiwan.

[DB]

it's the same playbook they've been using since they butchered Indian Army personnel in another part of the world they don't own but claim.

[futon]

MANILA, Philippines – The Philippines and Japan on Monday, July 8, signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), a deal that would make it easier for the militaries of both countries to train and operate in each other’s soil.

...

https://www.rappler.com/philippines/japan-sign-military-access-pact-july-2024/