Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys

[Nobu]

"In giving his warning, Mr. Cui hinted that anti-American fervor could be brewing. “To be honest with you, the Chinese public is following very closely whether the United States will adopt a just and objective position on matters like these,” he said."

A just and objective position from the United States regarding a point of contention with Asia? Take a look at "The Cove" (2009) for an example of a "just and objective portrayal" from the United States of the Japanese people, culture, and society.

[Corinthian]

Oh man, Tom Clancy is probably furiously masturbating with what's happening at the SCS now....

[chino]

What I hate about all this is the hypocrisy.

 

The governments or all belligerent countries will play up the patriotism card among its own citizen. They'll make them suffer, fight and die.

 

However, if they do discover oil in the Spratlys, they'll quickly forget the people - while they busily line their own pockets.

Edited June 24, 2011 by chino

[Guest JamesG123]

I could be wrong but the SCS (South China Sea) is kinda like the chokepoint between the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.

/quote]

Not the Spratleys. They butt against the PI. The real choke points are off Indonesia.

 

Therefore, should conflict arise involving China - and should China appear to be winning - there is absolutely no chance the US will/can stay out.

 

Much like the US wouldn't be able stand aside while its new bestest ally Georgia got its clock cleaned out by Russia?

[chino]

Not the Spratleys. They butt against the PI. The real choke points are off Indonesia.

 

I was talking about the entire SCS - because that's what China is claiming - not just Spratlys.

 

 

Much like the US wouldn't be able stand aside while its new bestest ally Georgia got its clock cleaned out by Russia?

 

Again, I did not say who the US will come to defend. I am saying the US will contest if China try to enforce its ridiculous claim over the SCS with use of force.

[Guest JamesG123]

Doubtful.

 

No "clear and present danger", no direct threat to US interests.

Playing Cold War brinksmanship games between countries that holds the keys to each other's economies is not wise.

 

The Chinese are too busy becoming the world's biggest economy and the people trying to become middle-class to have time for silly little wars over some islands. The other states are rightfully too terrified of being crushed by the PLAN to do anything hot headed.

 

 

Expect endless hand wringing and flapping of gums at the UN being the hottest action in this conflict. I imagine the area will become some sort of demilitarized international zone with a UN overwatch and a licensing process for commercial exploitation. Until the PRC becomes so omnipresent that they will achieve defacto control. Similar to how the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean is pretty much an "American lake".

[Corinthian]

Doubtful.

 

No "clear and present danger", no direct threat to US interests.

Playing Cold War brinksmanship games between countries that holds the keys to each other's economies is not wise.

 

The Chinese are too busy becoming the world's biggest economy and the people trying to become middle-class to have time for silly little wars over some islands. The other states are rightfully too terrified of being crushed by the PLAN to do anything hot headed.

 

 

Expect endless hand wringing and flapping of gums at the UN being the hottest action in this conflict. I imagine the area will become some sort of demilitarized international zone with a UN overwatch and a licensing process for commercial exploitation. Until the PRC becomes so omnipresent that they will achieve defacto control. Similar to how the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean is pretty much an "American lake".

 

Agreed, except the part about the SCS being a DMZ with UN overwatch (laughing at the thought of UN overwatch)....

[Guest JamesG123]

Agreed, except the part about the SCS being a DMZ with UN overwatch (laughing at the thought of UN overwatch)....

 

Eh, it happens every once and a while (Suez, Cypress). What is required is stalemate, no one thinking that they have the upperhand or another state can gain from outright possession.

[Marek Tucan]

Eh, it happens every once and a while (Suez, Cypress). What is required is stalemate, no one thinking that they have the upperhand or another state can gain from outright possession.

 

But in such stalemate situation the overwatch is generally meaningless as nobody would go for anything anyway... And when one side decides to press the issue, UN gets eviction notice or it can just ignore them and let them count the bodies.

[Guest JamesG123]

I'm trying to think of a peaceful resolution here (Other than Chinese hegemony). Work with me.

[X-Files]

However, if they do discover oil in the Spratlys, they'll quickly forget the people - while they busily line their own pockets.

 

It's a big ocean. Sort of makes ya wonder if the Chinese know something already, before everyone else.

 

03/01/2008

A Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) official yesterday admitted that there was irregularity in the deal entered into by President Arroyo with the Chinese government for joint exploration for Philippine-claimed territories in the disputed Spratlys.

 

The official, who asked not to be named, confirmed the existence of the agreement, but said it has yet to be implemented.

 

Reports said the Spratlys deal would allow China to exploit the country’s exclusive economic zones as contained in an agreement signed by the Department of Trade and Industry and ZTE International in January 2007 in exchange for projects amounting to $4 billion.

 

http://www.tribune.net.ph/headlines/20080301hed6.html

 

Tomas,

Care to narrate?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQoPox-Gc5A

 

 

China’s assertiveness emerged from the following: (i) US withdrawal from this region, (ii) the 2008 global economic meltdown which convinced China that US power was in decline and China was rising to replace it – something demonstrated with impunity, (iii) Japan was a collapsing power centre in Asia, and the European Union (EU) could be bullied into submission on trade issues, and (iv) China’s military power demonstrations in 2008 and 2009 convinced it that it was impregnable and could deny area access to the US Navy in its maritime environment especially around Taiwan.

 

http://www.eurasiareview.com/spratly-islands-a-new-geostrategic-game-analysis-24062011/

[chino]

Ah, so maybe it is not too far-fetched to jump to the conclusion that this is why PLAN and PN have so far not shot at each other?

 

The Viets weren't so lucky in '88.

[Corinthian]

Tomas,

Care to narrate?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQoPox-Gc5A

 

Umutang nanay mo - Your mom took up a loan. It is also a play of words "putang ina mo" meaning "your mother is a whore" or, in English, "son of a bitch" (in a more indirect way)

 

Basically, the video says that former president Arroyo, in exchange for $8 billion worth of projects, allowed China to enter the Spratlys. And that she and her husband pocketed a "large commission" from that agreement (read: allowed themselves to be bought.)

 

Now, before one puts stock on that report, one has to remember one thing: our current president, like Obama, has been blaming the previous administration for practically everything. And this latest blame-game comes at a time when some people are criticising the current prez for being incompetent, having shown nothing as he completes his first (of six) years in office.

 

Think of President No-Balls as Obama. A stupid version of Obama who cannot even speak well. His poll numbers are down, and what is he doing? Still campaigning, still blaming the previous admin. In fact, all foreign investments, contracts entered with foreign firms, made during the previous admin are on hold, being reviewed by the current admin, to see if there are any anomalies, all part for the current admin to go after the previous. Think of it as Mcarthysm, a witch hunt. And while that happens, foreign investors are shying away, because it seems all government contracts made with them will now not be honored. And while that happens, the economy slows down, unemployment goes up, and it sure as hell doesn't help that President No-Balls has been doing a Marcos (so ironic, considering that his daddy got shot in the brains under orders of Marcos) by practicing cronyism.

 

As I've always said, No-Balls is like a hunter out to stop corruption (represented herein by a tiger). In the end, he might be able to say "Here it is, the tiger!" - while the forest (the country) burns.

 

This is important to remember when reading that article. It is yet another example of No-Balls blaming President Arroyo for the ills of the country. But fact is, Arroyo isn't solely to blame for the Spratlys debacle. You have to blame Estrada, Ramos, even No-Balls' mum, Corazon Aquino, for the country's mishandling of the Spratlys. Our country has, year after year, administration after administration, neglected to strengthen its claim on those islands.

 

Look at Malaysia! What did they do? Build a resort because they know that physical possession, active occupation, and constant use strengthens one's claim over territorial disputes, and is the next best thing if you don't have the military to defend it (now they do, of course). Vietnam and China, OTOH, exercise their claims by building structures with weapons, and enforcing their claims by sending in naval and aircraft patrols. Us? We have installations there, but the islands are/were barred from commonfolk to go to. Our troops there think of it as a punishment, and so morale isn't good. Other than that, we haven't been enforcing our claim on those islands. We could've, by using surveying ships and entering into agreements with foreign firms to conduct oil exploration in the area, but our admins are too chicken to do the first, and there's the current Constitution (a result of No-Ball's mum's entry into power) that has prohibitions on foreign participation in the national economy. So now we instead rely on such fickle and unreliable things as international law. But even that our admins are negligent. Instead of pursuing it through legal action, we are instead doing so indirectly, such as supporting UNCLOS, or entering into territorial disputes of other countries as an oppositor or some third party (and usually we lose in such cases, but put a brave face saying "In fact, this strengthens our claims..." blah blah blah).

 

So here we are, paying the piper for our negligence. It's sorta like the Sabah dispute.

 

What's funny is that I've been saying this, and I am accused of being unpatriotic, a traitor, and such. Ah yes, that is the way it is here in the Philippines, where each and every itty-bitty trivial thing involving Filipinos (say "World's smallest man" or some Fil-Am or Fil-Can singer who strikes it big in the West) is raised up as a heroic thing, overrating it. Me? I see reality and tell it as it is - and reality, unfortunately, hurts for many of my countrymen. They are in denial. I am not.

[chino]

I can't imagine any soldier, whatever his nationality, who wouldn't think of a posting to the Spratlys as anything other than punishment.

 

Most are not even proper islands just half-submerged reefs.

 

It's not hard to imagine someone going mental very quickly. I'm sure they are rotated regularly.

Edited June 26, 2011 by chino

[Nobu]

Here's irony for ya: the USN representing/defending Vietnamese interests in the face of Chinese aggression. . . .

After Vietnam and the Philippines are done using the USN, Japan gets to use them next for rectification of the Senkaku Islands dispute in Japan's favor and to evict the Korean squatter community on Takeshima.

 

Afterward, the USN will then be used to rectify the Russian occupation of the disputed Kurile Islands in Japan's favor.

 

I think the Indians have dibs on using the USN next.

[Corinthian]

I'm sure they are rotated regularly.

 

*Laughs morbidly*

 

Let's see.... AFAIK, it takes forever for the Philippine Navy to transport troops to and from the Spratlys. More like rotated if (big if) and when (bwuahahahahahaha!) the Philippine Navy transport sails from Puerto Princesa hehehe....

[Simon Tan]

Upside to layang-layang is that it counts as 'days at sea' and thus you are eligible for the allowances. Downside is that it is quite boring, unless you are an angler, in which case every day is Sunday. The other upside is that you can rotate in and out on a flight, though those on the guard ship come and go with the vessel.

 

Tomas, fuggedabout all this and focus on unfucking the PI proper.

[Corinthian]

Tomas, fuggedabout all this and focus on unfucking the PI proper.

 

Tell that to the government. The Spratlys is the perfect wag-the-dog opportunity for us. Incompetence in running the country? Raise the Chinese Bogeyman.

[pikachu]

Tell that to the government. The Spratlys is the perfect wag-the-dog opportunity for us. Incompetence in running the country? Raise the Chinese Bogeyman.

 

I think you gotta tell the waggers that generally you pick a WEAKER country to play this game with... in the original movie it was Albania.

[Nobu]

Tell that to the government. The Spratlys is the perfect wag-the-dog opportunity for us. Incompetence in running the country? Raise the Chinese Bogeyman.

Frighteningly, that's also a reasonable depiction of the situation in the United States.

[X-Files]

Frighteningly, that's also a reasonable depiction of the situation in the United States.

 

Except that the US government is not focused on the Chinese.

 

The State Department's "meh" response -

 

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The United States said it was ready to provide hardware to modernize the military of the Philippines, which vowed to "stand up to any aggressive action" amid rising tension at sea with China.

 

Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario, on a visit to Washington, said the Philippines hoped to lease equipment to upgrade its aged fleet and called for the allies to revamp their relationship in light of the friction with China.

 

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110624/ts_afp/usphilippineschinadiplomacymilitary

 

*

The Chinese Navy's annual sortie through the disputed waters between the Japanese islands Okinawa and Miyakojima held a surprise for foreign observers. Japanese forces tailing the 11-strong Chinese fleet spotted a previously unknown Chinese weapon system: a small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, apparently launched from the deck of a Chinese warship.

 

http://the-diplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2011/06/26/chinese-navy-drone-spotted/

Edited June 28, 2011 by X-Files

[chino]

How many oil wells are there in the Spratlys and how much oil and gas are already being harvested?

[Simon Tan]

None yet. Though it is well explored.

[X-Files]

Growing frictions among nations bordering the South China Sea, exacerbated by the increasing assertiveness of the Chinese military, could lead to armed confrontation and even war, a leading Australian foreign policy think tank warned yesterday.

 

The Lowy Institute, whose report coincided with the US Senate approving a resolution deploring China's use of force against Vietnamese and Philippine ships, said Asia was becoming "a danger zone for incidents at sea"

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/think-tank-fears-war-over-south-china-sea-2304025.html

[Corinthian]

Just when the Spratlys issue was starting to simmer down, President No-Balls further fanned the flames when he publicly said that he did not trust China.

 

Yay. Another brilliant foreign relations move by sieg heil No-Balls.

 

Meanwhile, it seems that China has done some good diplomatic maneuvering on its own, "dismantling" a perceived "Vietnam-US-Philippines" "alliance" against China over the Spratlys by being more diplomatic with the Vietnamese (with whom, IMO, is the only country in the region that can give China a semblance of a bloody nose if and when missiles and shells erupt at the Spratlys).

Edited June 29, 2011 by TomasCTT