Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys

[JasonJ]

There are still those hundreds of PRC vessels in the Philippines EEZ mentioned in the article posted by B1 on March 21st.

"China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see… O…GET THE FUCK OUT," Locsin said in a tweet on his personal account.

"What are you doing to our friendship? You. Not us. We're trying. You. You're like an ugly oaf forcing your attentions on a handsome guy who wants to be a friend; not to father a Chinese province…", Locsin said.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/teodoro-locsin-tweet-china-sea-dispute-may-3-2021

[BansheeOne]

Quote

The U.S.-China Confrontation

"We Need To Avoid Stumbling into a Major War"

Admiral James Stavridis has commanded U.S. warships in the South China Sea. In his new novel, he writes about a war between China and America – a scenario he considers to be extremely realistic.

Interview Conducted By Bernhard Zand in Hong Kong

06.05.2021, 20.16 Uhr

On the afternoon of March 12, 2034, the commanding officers of the American guided-missile destroyer John Paul Jones discover a fishing trawler on fire on the horizon of the Western Pacific. They delay but then, on the orders of their superiors, they shift course. It’s the beginning of a chain of events that leads to war between China and the United States and the use of tactical nuclear weapons. These events drive the plot of the geopolitical thriller "2034,” from Washington to Beijing, from the Persian Gulf to San Diego, from India to Shanghai.

The authors are novelist and Afghanistan veteran Elliot Ackerman, 41, and Admiral James Stavridis, 66, who himself commanded a destroyer squadron in the western Pacific years ago. He later rose to the rank of four-star admiral and, in 2009, he became the first naval officer to take over the supreme command of NATO troops in Europe. Stavridis was discussed as a possible vice presidential nominee during Hillary Clinton’s campaign and later as a possible secretary of state under Donald Trump. He has made a name for himself as a political commentator.

DER SPIEGEL: Admiral Stavridis, how close are China and the U.S. to a military confrontation today?

Admiral James Stavridis: A lot of the critical reaction to the book has been: Excellent book. The date is wrong. It’s not 2034, maybe 2024 or 2026. Any number of my very senior military friends have said, "You’ve written a cautionary tale about a war that you think is 10 to 15 years away, but many of us believe it will come sooner." And there is public testimony to this fact. Just three weeks ago, Admiral Philip S. Davidson, who is the commander of all U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region, talked about the possibility of a war over Taiwan within six years. The U.S. and China are both operating heavy military warships and aircraft in very close proximity over the South China Sea.

[...] 

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-u-s-china-confrontation-we-need-to-avoid-stumbling-into-a-major-war-a-145ea252-612f-408a-b8c8-b2458ef11ece

[Stuart Galbraith]

I was reading the kindle preview to that the other day, its pretty good.  The Kevin Miller book 'Fight Fight' is quite interesting took. PRC accidentally kills the crew of a US Destroyer with Nerve Agent. I guess you had  to be there.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

China slams US warship's 'illegal' sea passage

8h ago

A United States Navy warship's passage through the contested South China Sea has stoked tensions between the US and China.

China has slammed the latest passage by a US Navy ship through contested waters in the South China Sea as "illegal," in a statement released on Thursday.

China spoke out after the guided-missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur transitted international waters near the disputed Paracel Islands on Tuesday.

China slams US warship passage as 'unprofessional'

The Chinese military's Southern Theater Command said the move "violated its sovereignty and undermined regional peace and stability."

The US action "artificially increases regional security risks, and is prone to misunderstandings, misjudgments, and accidents at sea," the statement said.

It called the ship's maneuvers "unprofessional and irresponsible."

It stated that Chinese ships and planes followed the US vessel.

It is the second time in two days that China has released a statement condemning the actions of the US warship.

[...] 

https://m.dw.com/en/china-slams-us-warships-illegal-sea-passage/a-57592342

[JasonJ]

Malaysia scrambled some fighters in respone to sixteen PLA Air Force aircraft that flew within 60nm from Malaysian Borneo.

Quote

 

The foreign ministry of Malaysia on Tuesday said it would summon China's envoy to explain an "intrusion" by 16 air force planes into its airspace, after the Southeast Asian country's military detected "suspicious" activity over the South China Sea.

Malaysia's air force said it scrambled jets on Monday to conduct visual confirmation after the planes flew within 60 nautical miles off Sarawak state of Malaysian Borneo.

It described the incident as a "serious threat to national sovereignty and flight safety".

The Chinese planes did not contact regional air traffic control despite being instructed several times, the air force said.

Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said Malaysia will issue a note of diplomatic protest and ask China's ambassador to Malaysia to explain the "breach of the Malaysian airspace and sovereignty".

"Malaysia's stand is clear - having friendly diplomatic relations with any countries does not mean that we will compromise on our national security," Hishammuddin said in a statement.

China's embassy earlier said the planes conducted routine flight training and "strictly abided by" international law without violating airspace of other countries.

"China and Malaysia are friendly neighbours, and China is willing to continue bilateral friendly consultations with Malaysia to jointly maintain regional peace and stability," a spokesperson said.

China has been pushing an expansive claim over the South China Sea, through which about $3 trillion worth of ship-borne trade passes annually. It has also built military facilities on manmade islands.

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims to various islands and features in the area and China's coastguard routinely warns foreign boats and aircraft to leave what it calls its territory.

Malaysia's air force said the planes, comprising Ilyushin il-76 and Xian Y-20 strategic transporters, had traveled in an "in-trail" tactical formation at between 23,000 and 27,000 feet.

Last year, a Chinese survey ship held a month-long standoff with a Malaysian oil exploration vessel within Malaysia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysia-says-chinese-military-planes-came-close-violating-airspace-2021-06-01/

[BansheeOne]

A remark by the German defense minister just pointed me to the fact that China's naval militia have been dubbed "little blue men" in an obvious reference to Russia's green variant for some time.

Quote

Directing China’s “Little Blue Men”: Uncovering the Maritime Militia Command Structure

By Andrew S. Erickson and Conor Kennedy | September 11, 2015
China

 

While Russia has employed “Little Green Men” surreptitiously in Crimea, China uses its own “Little Blue Men” to support Near Seas claims. As the U.S. military operates near Beijing’s artificially-built South China Sea (SCS) features and seeks to prevent Beijing from ejecting foreign claimants from places like Second Thomas Shoal, it may well face surveillance and harassment from China’s maritime militia. Washington and its allies and partners must therefore understand how these irregular forces are commanded and controlled, before they are surprised and stymied by them.

China has long organized its civilian mariners into maritime militia, largely out of necessity. Recent years have seen a surge of emphasis on maritime militia building and increasing this unique force’s capabilities; however it is difficult to ascertain who or what entity within China’s government has ordered such emphasis. One can point to Xi Jinping’s visit to the Tanmen Maritime Militia in 2013, after which maritime militia building oriented toward the SCS has seen growth in places like Hainan, Guangdong, and Guangxi. Yet local militia training and organization plans prior to this date had already emphasized the training of maritime militia units.

Unit Composition and Organization

China’s militia has two major subcomponents: an “ordinary” reserve of registered male citizens akin to the U.S. Selective Service pool, and a “primary” force more readily mobilized to respond to various contingencies. The primary force receives dedicated resources, troops demobilized from active duty, and training. Within the primary force, maritime militia units—formed solely at the tactical level of organization—are smaller and more specialized on average than their land-based counterparts. Within the maritime militia, a small but growing elite set of units are the ones most likely to be deployed on more sophisticated operations that involve monitoring, displaying presence in front of, or opposing foreign actors. They do so in part by supporting China’s navy and coast guard in such efforts. Some cities with large mobilization potential—i.e., a large maritime industry or fishing community—will form battalion-sized units. Most localities create company-sized units, however. These companies are divided into platoons and squads, with the smallest grouping based on each individual vessel.

Chain of Command

Militia management begins broadly at the General Staff Department’s Mobilization Department, which oversees and formulates regulations for nationwide militia work. Uniquely a local military force, the maritime militia falls within the hierarchical People’s Liberation Army (PLA) army local force command structure that runs through all levels of local military organs. As stipulated in China’s “Militia Work Regulations,” real command of the militia begins at the Provincial Military District (MD) level and below. The thousands of county- and grassroots-level People’s Armed Forces Departments (PAFD) established in county-level cities, townships, villages, and maritime enterprises (fishing companies, shipyards, etc.) directly execute the organizing and training of maritime militia. Grassroots-level PAFDs report to county-level PAFDs, which report to Military Sub-district (MSD) Headquarters, themselves reporting to MD Headquarters. Maritime militia building also receives attention by Military Region-level Command, albeit in a supervisory fashion. Higher levels of military commands likely view the maritime militia as a subset of military organization within the broader ecosystem of local militia, with particular focus on broader mobilization efforts. Additionally, militia battalions and companies form party branches to ensure Party control at the grassroots levels.

It must be emphasized that maritime militia command authority resides within multiple entities, including both the local military organs (MD, MSD, PAFD) and their government/party counterparts. This is referred to as “双重领导” in Chinese, connoting the “dual-leadership” system by the local military and government’s principal leaders. It is thus common to see a city party secretary acting in his role as first-party secretary of the local military party committee overseeing the PAFD’s efforts at managing the maritime militia. An easily visible example: Sansha City’s mayor/party secretary Xiao Jie and his military counterpart Commander Cai Xihong both attended the founding ceremony of Sansha City’s Maritime Militia Company. “Dual-leadership” is further reinforced by the fact that local governments fund militia construction.

Since both military and government leaders are involved in local armed forces building, the National Defense Mobilization Committee System (NDMC) established at each corresponding level plays the critical role in binding them into one decision-making body. The NDMC brings together these leaders to organize, direct, and coordinate nationwide national defense mobilization, ensuring that national resources can be rapidly mobilized for defense or emergency needs. Local NDMCs can also establish civilian-military joint command structures facilitated by national defense mobilization communications networks. As a militia force, the maritime militia would need a specified duration to mobilize and gather in the area designated by their superiors. Localized mobilization orders transmitted to the maritime militia could originate from a variety of sources. Regardless, they would be sent down the chain and delivered to the maritime militia via the PAFDs managing them.

[...]

https://amti.csis.org/directing-chinas-little-blue-men-uncovering-the-maritime-militia-command-structure/

[RETAC21]

 

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 12.07.2021

South China Sea: US warns China against attack on Philippine forces

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the comments as tensions rise in the South China Sea waterway. Beijing has claimed large parts of the key shipping route in defiance of an international legal ruling.

The US has warned China that it will defend the Philippines' armed forces from attack in the South China Sea as part of a 70-year-old mutual defense treaty.

Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, made the comments late on Sunday ahead of the fifth anniversary of a legal ruling that rejected Beijing's claims to the waters.

What did the Biden administration say?

US President Biden's administration said it backed a Trump-era policy that rejects China's claims to offshore resources in most of the South China Sea.

"We also reaffirm that an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty," the top diplomat added.

"Nowhere is the rules-based maritime order under greater threat than in the South China Sea."

[...]

China 'drives away' US vessel

China's armed forces said on Monday that it "drove away" a US warship that it said had illegally entered Chinese waters near the Paracel Islands.

"We urge the United States to immediately stop such provocative actions," it said in a statement.

The US Navy did not immediately comment

Washington has said that that its naval presence in the South China Sea is to support the freedom of navigation under international maritime law.

https://www.dw.com/en/south-china-sea-us-warns-china-against-attack-on-philippine-forces/a-58235253

 

Quote

Date 12.07.2021

Author Bill Hayton

Beijing defiant five years since the South China Sea ruling

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that most of China's claims in the disputed sea were illegal. The judgment was legally binding, so what happened?

On July 12, 2016, the world began to hear about one of the most momentous legal decisions in recent Asian history.

For the first time, an international tribunal had been asked to rule on some of China's claims in the South China Sea. And in a remarkable ruling, five judges sitting in The Hague decided that most of them had no basis in international law.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration judgment said nothing about territorial claims — which country is the rightful owner of each rock and reef — but almost everything about who owns the resources in between those rocks and reefs. The tribunal decided that a line drawn on Chinese maps since 1947 (often called the "nine-dash line") did not amount to a legal claim on the oil, gas, fish and other resources of the sea.

Just as importantly, it ruled that none of the disputed reefs and rocks in the southern part of the sea was large enough to justify a claim on those resources either. On 14 out of 15 points, it supported the claims of the country that had brought the case: the Philippines. It was a stunning victory.

The Chinese authorities, on the other hand, were furious. They had refused to participate in the case, and the response of then Vice-Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin was to call the ruling "nothing more than a piece of waste paper" and one that "will not be enforced by anyone."

China fails to comply

Julian Ku is a professor of law at Hofstra University in the United States and monitored China's compliance with the ruling in the months after. He says that China made a point of not being seen to comply.

"For a while, there did seem to be some soft acquiescence such as allowing Filipino fishing at [the disputed reef known as] Scarborough Shoal," he says. "But any such acquiescence was framed as a matter of bilateral diplomacy rather than compliance." Since then, however, China has even been pretending to comply, he added.

If it had been followed, the Hague ruling would have ended most of the confrontations on the South China Sea. Although it is only binding on China and the Philippines, its principles could apply just as easily to Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Indonesia. With clear guidelines on where each country could fish and drill, most of the heat would be taken out of the disputes.

Duterte determined to maintain China relations

Making the situation more complicated, the Philippines had a change of government just 12 days before the ruling was delivered. The country's new leader, Rodrigo Duterte, refused to damage his friendly relations with China by making use of it.

Duterte has, in his own words, kept the "piece of paper" in his "back pocket." With the Philippines unwilling to make use of the judgment, potential supporters have been left sitting on the sidelines.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/beijing-defiant-five-years-since-the-south-china-sea-ruling/a-58237995

[JasonJ]

I guess these are reliable source. Some PRC military activity at Subi Reef.

https://twitter.com/ImageSatIntl/status/1432706790584733710

 

 

 

Edited September 1, 2021 by JasonJ

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 03.12.2021

US, EU concerned by China's 'problematic' actions at sea

During talks in Washington, US and EU officials said it was important to maintain close contact to deal with "competition and systemic rivalry with China."

The United States and the European Union released a joint statement on Thursday, detailing shared concerns over China's actions at sea.

The briefing said the US and EU had strong concerns about what they considered China's "problematic and unilateral actions" in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

It said China's activities "undermined peace and security in the region," and stressed the need to manage "competition and systemic rivalry" with Beijing.

The statement followed talks in Washington between US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and the Secretary General of the European External Action Service (EEAS), Stefano Sannino.

The briefing also discussed the repression of China's Uyghur and Tibetan ethnic minorities, and the erosion of Hong Kong's autonomy and democratic political system.

What is the EU position on the South China Sea?

Herve Blejean, director general of the EU military staff, said there could be greater EU-US coordination to "express our strong desire to defend international law at sea against de facto policies that we've seen in the South China Sea."

Blejean said that France was a Pacific power, and other EU member states such as Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark showed interest in the region. France administers a number of territories in the Pacific, including New Caledonia, which rejected independence in a referendum last year, French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna.

Blejean said the EU could consider establishing a "Maritime Area of Interest" in the South China Sea, similar to a pilot project aimed at better coordinating the EU presence in the Gulf of Guinea, part of the Atlantic Ocean. Another project in the northern Indian Ocean is also being looked at.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/us-eu-concerned-by-chinas-problematic-actions-at-sea/a-60003861

[X-Files]

Ten years plus and my thread is still thriving. 

 

China’s Secret Underground Naval Base China has built a naval base for nuclear submarines along the southern coast of Hainan Island, China. Named the Yulin Naval Base or in Chinese: 榆林海军基地, it can hold a signicant portion of China’s Naval assets.

A number of global intelligence agencies have confirmed the existence of the base. Moreover, India’s intelligence agency has taken the lead due to the proximity of the base towards southeastern Asia.

 Remember when I told you the playing board would extend from India to Japan? And that New Zealand would be at risk as well? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Furthermore, the base is located about equidistant between Australia, Japan and India, who are China’s 3 largest regional rivals.

According to satellite images the caverns can take up to 20 Chinese nuclear submarines at any given time.

https://www.rebellionresearch.com/chinas-secret-underground-naval-base

Edited January 8, 2022 by X-Files

[futon]

It was made known today by several government officials that JMSDF warships navigating through the SCS during trips to and from the ME or joint training exercises have started to include a Japanese version of the so-called FONOPs last year in March. Both in March and in August, a JMSDF warship navigated in what is called "the contiguos zone" (area that's 12nm to 24nm away from a given feature) around PRC held features in the Spratly island group. https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20220110-OYT1T50151/amp/

[X-Files]

🍿

Australia has locked in its purchase of more than 120 tanks and other armoured vehicles from the United States, at a cost of $3.5 billion, as part of a major upgrade of the army’s fleet.

The commitment to buy 75 M1A2 main battle tanks indicates the government is committed to an advanced fleet of armoured vehicles despite the focus in recent years being on other major acquisitions such as submarines, jet fighters and long-range missiles amid the rise of China.

Australia commits to $3.5 billion tank purchase from the US (smh.com.au)

[futon]

MANILA, Philippines – The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said on Monday, March 14, that Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian had been summoned to the agency after a Chinese navy vessel intruded, and later lingered, in the Sulu Sea earlier this year. 

It is the second time Huang had been called to appear at the DFA, following an earlier directive last April 2021, when the Philippines expressed its “utmost displeasure” over the  “illegal lingering presence” of Beijing’s ships around Julian Felipe Reef (Whitsun Reef) and other maritime zones in the West Philippine Sea. 

The DFA said Huang was summoned through Acting Undersecretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro on Monday morning. 

In line with Huang’s most recent appearance, the DFA said a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Electronic Reconnaissance Ship (Dongdiao-class) with bow number 792 entered Philippine waters without permission. It reached the waters of the Cuyo Group of Islands in Palawan and Apo Island in Mindoro from January 29 to February 1, 2022. 

...

https://www.rappler.com/nation/national-news/philippines-summons-chinese-ambassador-navy-ship-intrusion-sulu-sea/

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by futon

[X-Files]

 

Solomon Islands has confirmed it is drafting a security deal with China - a move that's triggered alarm in neighbouring Australia and other Western allies in the Indo-Pacific.

Leaked papers indicate a Chinese military base could potentially be set up on the island to Australia's north.

That's sparked concern from Australia, long the chief defence partner and biggest aid donor to the tiny island.

Both Australia and New Zealand said it had raised concerns with Honiara.

Solomon Islands confirms China security draft, alarming Australia - BBC News

[X-Files]

OpEd -

Time for India to play bigger role in South China Sea - Asia Times

But now with the US deciding to involve itself in the Russia-Ukraine war, an ample opportunity has arisen for China to implement its expansion plans in the Indo-Pacific region more vigorously.

Given the nature of the conflict in Europe, the Americans may not be able to withdraw from it any time soon and pay sufficient attention to Chinese moves in the South China Sea. Thus the time for China to intensify its push in that body of water and broader Indo-Pacific region may have arrived.

[sunday]

As someone who should be learning Chinese says, "It is quite good to have economic superiority against an opponent. " 

[X-Files]

Told ya so.

 

Australia should be "very concerned" about China's ambition to woo Pacific island nations and its intention to expand foreign military operations, according to one defence analyst.

China's state media reported this week President Xi Jinping had signed an order expanding the legal basis for the country's military to conduct "armed forces operations" other than war in other territories.

Kori Schake, director of foreign and defence policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute based in Washington DC is the latest to warn about China's motives.

Bleak warning to Australia over China's latest military move (yahoo.com)

[X-Files]

11 years later - 

With mounting concern China may attack Taiwan, Tokyo views Philippines as strategic military partner

Japan and Philippines ready to boost military cooperation | Taiwan News | 2023-02-05 17:59:00

 

Told ya so.

[X-Files]

The Philippine government has identified four new military camps, including some across the sea from Taiwan, where rotating batches of American forces will be allowed to be stationed indefinitely despite strong objections from China

 

Philippines names 4 new camps for US forces amid China fury - ABC News (go.com)

[Ivanhoe]

https://news.usni.org/2023/03/11/china-ships-still-operating-near-pag-asa-says-philippine-coast-guard

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-says-chinese-navy-ship-spotted-near-disputed-island-2023-03-04/

 

https://news.usni.org/2023/03/06/chinese-warship-cutter-violate-pag-asa-island-territorial-sea-says-philippine-coast-guard

 

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/13/1156475789/the-philippines-accuses-a-chinese-ship-of-aiming-a-laser-at-a-filipino-boat-crew

 

 

[X-Files]

[Ivanhoe]

Yeah, it was simply a matter of when the PRC perceived it was go-time. 

Senile and compromised POTUS, GOFOs mostly replaced by Obamites, world focused on Ukraine, oil shocks, dollar wars, etc. 

DC pretending Tiktok is the enemy so Deep State can go after domestic enemy. 

PLAN admirals must have been chorusing "Boss, strike now! Not gonna get any better!"

[Josh]

13 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

Yeah, it was simply a matter of when the PRC perceived it was go-time. 

Senile and compromised POTUS, GOFOs mostly replaced by Obamites, world focused on Ukraine, oil shocks, dollar wars, etc. 

DC pretending Tiktok is the enemy so Deep State can go after domestic enemy. 

PLAN admirals must have been chorusing "Boss, strike now! Not gonna get any better!"

PRC ships have been fucking with the Philippines since the Trump days. The significant thing that changed is the government in Manila, not the government in DC. Duterte tried as hard as he could to sweep such incidents under the rug while Marcos is into publicly shaming them. Biden's administration has only upped US CONOPS and trade restrictions while rescinding none of Trump's measures. But feel free to blame it on the green M&M switching to flat shoes if you feel like it.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Josh

[futon]

.

Edited April 28, 2023 by futon