Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys

[JasonJ]

 

 

191006-N-VI515-0396 SOUTH CHINA SEA (October 6, 2019) Ships from Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group and Boxer Amphibious Ready Group sail in formation while conducting security and stability operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. U.S. 7th Fleet is the largest numbered fleet in the world, and the U.S. Navy has operated in the Indo-Pacific region for more than 70 years, providing credible, ready forces to help preserve peace and prevent conflict. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Erwin Jacob V. Miciano)

https://www.dvidshub.net/image/5812722/uss-ronald-reagan-cvn-76

[JasonJ]

A Filipino crewed, Greek owned, 60,000 ton class ship passing near Scarborough Shoal to a destination in China was radioed by a Chinese warship to change course away from Scarborough Shoal. The Filipino ship captain maintained course and questioned why must he change course, is it Chinese territory? No response and just again was demanded for the ship to change course.

https://twitter.com/rapplerdotcom/status/1190288287816024065

[KV7]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reminds me of this - it is a good movie:

 

 

 

[JasonJ]

Singapore based ASEAN status survey for 2020. China's apparent influence over SEA has increased since last year's survey.

 

There are many questions but some of the more prominent questions..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seven more questions in the next post.

[JasonJ]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/TheStateofSEASurveyReport_2020.pdf

[JasonJ]

China set up administration districts in the South China Sea.

 

 

MANILA, Philippines — In an apparent move to further tighten its grip in the South China Sea, Beijing recently announced it was establishing two districts in Paracels and Spratly Islands.

The two administrative units are under the control of Sansha City, Chinese People’s Liberation Army said in its news website on Friday (April 17).

The ”Nansha District” would be in charge of Spratly Islands, where the Philippine claims in the West Philippine Sea are located, as well as the surrounding areas. Its government will hold office on Yongshu Jiao, China’s name for Philippine-claimed Fiery Cross (Kagitingan) Reef.

The “Xisha District” would manage Paracel Islands, the Macclesfield Bank, and other areas close to it.

Vietnam was outraged by China’s latest move, and has strongly protested it.

“The establishment of the so-called Sansha City and related activities seriously violated Vietnam’s sovereignty,” Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Le Thi Thu Hang said in a statement.


“Vietnam demands that China respect Vietnam’s sovereignty and abolish its wrongful decisions,” she said.

Absolute control
Maritime expert Prof. Jay Batongbacal said China’s creation of new districts is an attempt to demonstrate that it has absolute control of the disputed waters.

If no other state objects, it can be interpreted as consent.

“Absence of protests on the part of the other countries, especially those directly affected, will be seen and portrayed as acquiescence and acceptance or recognition of the exercise of such control as valid,” he told Inquirer.net on Monday.

It will be a recognition of China’s sovereignty in the area, and the validity of its claims despite their being obviously excessive, illegal and unsupported by law or facts, he said.

Retired Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, who played a crucial role in securing the Philippines’ historic victory against China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, urged the Philippine government to object to China’s creation of new districts.

“DFA (Department of Foreign Affairs) should protest because Fiery Cross (Kagitingan) Reef is part of our Kalayaan Island Group. Vietnam already protested. If we do not protest, China will later claimed we acquiesced,” he told INQUIRER.net.

Former Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario said this move only goes to show that “China has been relentless in exploiting the COVID-19 pandemic as it continues to pursue its illegal and expansive claims in the South China Sea to the prejudice of Filipinos, Asean states and the international community as a whole.”

Like Carpio and Batongbacal, he also called on the Philippine government to protest China’s recent actions, the way it recently did over the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat in early April.

“These recent events in the South China Sea remind us Filipinos to be eternally vigilant in the defense of our country’s territory and sovereign rights even as we confront a very grave threat as COVID-19,” he said in a statement.

As the coronavirus pandemic rampages across the world, China continues its expansionist activities in the South China Sea.

The Chinese government last month opened two research stations on Kagitingan (Fiery Cross) and Zamora (Subi) reefs, two of China’s seven man-made military bases in the Spratly Islands in the West Philippine Sea.

A military transport plane was also spotted on Kagitingan Reef in March, another indication of China’s unceasing operations despite the global pandemic.

“China’s not going to stop. If a global pandemic doesn’t cause China to calm things down the South China Sea, There’s not much that will,” American maritime security expert Gregory Poling said in an online news conference last week.

https://globalnation.inquirer.net/186987/ph-told-to-protest-2-new-chinese-districts-in-south-china-sea

[JasonJ]

US naval activities in the SCS.

 

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA (April 18, 2020) - The Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), front, and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) transit the South China Sea. Bunker Hill is deployed to the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations and is operating with the America Expeditionary Strike Group in support of security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Nicholas V. Huynh) 200418-N-IW125-2047

https://www.flickr.com/photos/us-pacific-command/49802938552/in/photostream/

 

 

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA 04.18.2020 Photo by Seaman Jonathan Berlier USS America (LHA 6) - Amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6) transits the South China Sea. America, flagship of the America Expeditionary Strike Group, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, is operating in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations to enhance interoperability with allies and partners and serve as a ready response force to defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

https://www.dvidshub.net/image/6179792/uss-america-lha-6-conducts-flight-operations-south-china-sea

[JasonJ]

Some spotted aircraft activity on Fiery Cross Reef.

https://twitter.com/ImageSatIntl/status/1244234832584028162

 

https://twitter.com/ImageSatIntl/status/1252196207075655681

 

https://twitter.com/ImageSatIntl/status/1252196208929648642

[JasonJ]

HMAS Parramatta joined the three US warships two posts above since April 13th, up to at least the 18th.

 

 

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA - The U.S. Navy and Royal Australian Navy came together for operations in the South China Sea starting April 13.

HMAS Parramatta (FFG 154) began sailing with Ticonderoga-class guided missile-cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52) then rendezvoused with amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6) and Arleigh-Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) April 18. Their combined operations started with force integration training and maneuvering exercises between Parramatta and Bunker Hill.

“It is great to be operating with the Australians again,” said Capt. Kurt Sellerberg, commanding officer of the USS Bunker Hill. “Every time I have deployed to this region, and to the Middle East, I have had the good fortune to operate with the Royal Australian Navy.”

Operations with USS America started with a precision maneuvers that included Barry in the South China Sea.

“We look forward to every opportunity we get to work with our stalwart Australian allies at sea,” said Rear Adm. Fred Kacher, commander of the America Expeditionary Strike Group. “To bring this much combat capability together here in the South China Sea truly signals to our allies and partners in the region that we are deeply committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Operations with Parramatta have included integrated live fire exercises, coordinated helicopter operations, small boat force protection drills, command and control integration, and maneuvering interoperability.

“San Diego [HM-60] ‘Romeo’ pilots have a long flying history with Australian pilots,” said Lt. Cmdr Jacob “Shaky” Norgaard, “it’s a great opportunity to strengthen our relationship and practice joint tactics, techniques and procedures.”

The events gave both navies the opportunity to integrate all warfare areas, and further strengthen the bond between both countries.

"I was super pumped to participate in cross-deck operations with the Royal Australian Navy,” said Lt. Rachael “Janet” Davis. “We are stronger together, and this type of integration promotes our commitment to maritime security as well as increases our presence here.”

The U.S. and Australia share a long history of integrated military exercises. Over 3,000 U.S. Sailors and Marines had the opportunity to observe or participate in the combined exercise.

“They have the same interest in ensuring freedom of navigation and observance of internationally accepted norms and customs pertaining to the law of the sea,” said Sellerberg. “The Aussies are true professionals in every sense of the word, and our current combined deployment exemplifies a shared commitment to our historically strong and enduring relationship.”

U.S. 7th Fleet conducts forward-deployed naval operations in support of U.S. national interests in the Indo-Pacific area of operations. As the U.S. Navy’s largest numbered fleet, 7th Fleet interacts with 35 other maritime nations to build partnerships that foster maritime security, promote stability, and prevent conflict.

https://www.cpf.navy.mil/news.aspx/130600

[JasonJ]

https://twitter.com/ImageSatIntl/status/1260481579476045825

[JasonJ]

Two PRC ships surveying Reed Bank.

At least two Chinese vessels have been surveying Recto Bank (Reed Bank) for at least a "week" already without the proper clearance, Philippine Navy chief Vice Admiral Giovanni Bacordo said on Monday, August 10.

 

"It has come to my attention, the presence of two Chinese surveillance vessels in Recto Bank. Right now, I think there is only one," Bacordo said in a press briefing organized by the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines.

 

He added: "We have checked if they have any clearance to conduct survey in that area and we found out that there is none." (READ: LOOK: Chinese survey ship found operating in PH waters)

 

Bacordo said they concluded that the vessels were surveying the area because they were moving at 3 knots or around 5.5 kilometers per hour.

 

"You are only doing that if you are conducting actual survey," Bacordo added.

 

Why does this matter?

Recto Bank is an underwater reef formation that belongs to the Philippines, but is coveted by China because it is said to contain huge reserves of oil and natural gas in the West Philippine Sea.

 

China and the Philippines are currently in talks over a joint exploration for the West Philippine Sea. They started in October 2019, but talks have been delayed in 2020 because of the pandemic.

 

Not even the virus, however, has stopped China from continuing its campaign to assert its dominance in the South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea. (READ: Beijing continues South China Sea aggression during pandemic)

 

Under President Rodrigo Duterte, the military has been directed to avoid all risks of confrontation, going as far as banning the Navy from participating in joint drills in the area.

 

Bacordo said they will file a report on the incident and will ask the Department of Foreign Affairs to file a diplomatic protest.

 

https://rappler.com/nation/navy-confirms-chinese-vessels-surveying-recto-bank

[JasonJ]

Another Singapore based ASEAN survey for the year 2021: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/frontpage-publications/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2021-survey-report-2/

Previous two surveys:

2020 https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/34256-hypothetical-war-contest-for-the-spratleys/&do=findComment&comment=1464385

2019 https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/34256-hypothetical-war-contest-for-the-spratleys/&do=findComment&comment=1407937

 

[JasonJ]

[Tim the Tank Nut]

So Laos would ally with China but 0% of their respondents rated China as a benevolent power...

[DB]

On 3/3/2021 at 5:37 PM, Tim the Tank Nut said:

So Laos would ally with China but 0% of their respondents rated China as a benevolent power...

And that right there is how the world works when you are weak in comparison to the bully.

[bojan]

55 minutes ago, DB said:

And that right there is how the world works when you are weak in comparison to the bully.

Or you get the fate of Yugoslavia in 1941.

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization

[bojan]

It did not turn out that bad for Finland, didn't it?

Edited March 17, 2021 by bojan

[Stuart Galbraith]

In retrospect, no. At the time, there seems to have been a lot of political choices they might have made but didn't because they didn't want to upset the Soviets. That's going to be deeply irritating for any Sovereign nation. And the Russians still try to influence their choices now.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 21.03.2021

Philippines: 220 Chinese 'militia' boats gathered in South China Sea

Manila has expressed concern after more than 200 Chinese fishing vessels, allegedly crewed by maritime militia, were spotted at a disputed reef in the South China Sea. Both countries claim the shallow coral region.

The Philippines government voiced concern — without lodging a formal protest — over some 220 Chinese vessels allegedly sighted at a South China Sea reef claimed by both countries.

Although an international tribunal in 2016 invalidated China's claim to 90% of the South China Sea maritime region, Beijing does not recognize the ruling.

What was seen at the reef?

A Philippines government body that oversees the disputed area said the vessels were seen moored at Whitsun Reef, which Manila calls Julian Felipe, on March 7.

The National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea released pictures of the vessels, alleged to be manned by maritime military personnel, lying side by side in formation.

"Despite clear weather at the time, the Chinese vessels massed at the reef showed no actual fishing activities and had their full white lights turned on during night-time," the task force said in a statement.

The presence of the boats was "a concern due to the possible overfishing and destruction of the marine environment, as well as risks to safety of navigation," it added.

What could the Philippines do?

When asked if he would file a diplomatic protest, Foreign minister Teodoro Locsin said he would do so: "Only if the generals tell me."

"In my watch, foreign policy is the fist in the iron glove of the armed forces," he said.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has nurtured friendly ties with Beijing since taking office in 2016.

He has been criticized for not standing up to China's perceived aggressive behavior and not seeking Chinese compliance with the international arbitration ruling.

"When Xi says 'I will fish,' who can prevent him?" Duterte said, defending his non-confrontational approach.

"If I send my marines to drive away the Chinese fishermen, I guarantee you not one of them will come home alive,'' Duterte said.

Duterte has meanwhile sought infrastructure funds, trade and investments from China, which has also donated and pledged more COVID-19 vaccines to the Philippines as the country faces an alarming rise in coronavirus infections.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/philippines-220-chinese-militia-boats-gathered-in-south-china-sea/a-56943127

[JasonJ]

Beat me too it. 

Whitsun Reef is within the Philippines EEZ. But so too is Mischief Reef where one of the three large PRC made airbases was built. 

[Rick]

I noticed the accredited U.S. Naval ship photos are taken by "Mass Communication Specialists." That rating seems appropriate in today's world. 

[JasonJ]

2 hours ago, Rick said:

I noticed the accredited U.S. Naval ship photos are taken by "Mass Communication Specialists." That rating seems appropriate in today's world. 

Looks like the Air Force photographs avoid having a special title, just rank and name. Most of the Army ones seem to not have it either although a set of photos by US Army about a recent Kuwait exercise has "Task Force Spartan Public Affairs" along with it.

[Rick]

20 hours ago, JasonJ said:

Looks like the Air Force photographs avoid having a special title, just rank and name. Most of the Army ones seem to not have it either although a set of photos by US Army about a recent Kuwait exercise has "Task Force Spartan Public Affairs" along with it.

Traditional way of stating enlisted rank in the U.S. Navy from  E1 to E6 (recruit to Petty Officer 1rst class.) You can choose one of two ways; either Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Nicholas V. Huynh--which is usually the formal way or simply Petty Officer Third Class Huynh.

E7-E9 are Chief Petty Officers. I can't remember, except for official documents, a C.P.O. being called by their rating. They are -- respectfully -- called Chief(last name.)

[JasonJ]

Decent amount of international vocal push back. 

Quote

 

The Chinese embassy in Manila lashes out at foreign ambassadors in the Philippines for speaking up on the South China Sea and accuses them of stating 'wrong' facts

Europe, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom were the latest to express concern over flaring tensions in the South China Sea, adding their weight to increasing pressure over China's recent actions in the maritime area. 

Putting up a united front, the countries issued statements of concern just days after the United States, Australia, and Japan called out "destabilizing actions" that could undermine peace and stability in the volatile waterway. 

Tensions have risen in the South China Sea over the continued presence of hundreds of Chinese vessels near Julian Felipe Reef (Whitsun Reef) in the West Philippine Sea, prompting experts to warn that it could be a "prelude" to China occupying another maritime feature in Philippine waters. 

The lingering of Chinese ships, initially spotted on March 7, has prompted the Philippines to file a diplomatic protest against Beijing. The Philippines' National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea earlier reported it believed the fishing vessels were manned by Chinese maritime militia due to their continued presence in the area. The ships appeared to show no signs of "actual fishing activities.”

...

 

https://www.rappler.com/nation/world-powers-push-back-china-ships-linger-west-philippine-sea