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Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys


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Apparently the Philippines just upped the ante. Tomas, how many times must we tell you? Set the mind control ray on "low" for tests! :ph34r:

 

PH Military Favors Calling South China Sea the Western Philippines Sea

 

"Low" and other inferior words are not in my vocabulary.

 

:P

 

 

I wonder if its possible to bioengineer a species of beachcombing sheep?

 

Tomas, can you get your Mad Scientist team on the case please? :D

 

Working on it! Just for you! :D

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The IJN will continue as the dominant navy among the region's members. Its steady but largely unheralded growth reflects long range planning, training readiness and an acceptable learning curve. The value of CVs in areas now well covered by landbased aircraft remains mostly symbolic. Joint warfare skills will pay off best and Japan and Singapore are well ahead of the pack.

 

The JMSDF may have enjoy a superior level of quality of equipment and training, but the PRC has closed the gap in pretty much every measureable way to the point of near parity in basic force structure, and in submarines it has arguably already ahead equipment wise. They have a dozen+ Songs and Yuan, and a dozen Kilo's off the top of my head, and are comissioning several new nuke boats soon from what I understand. They have an Aegis like platform of which mayb e 3-4 are in service and modern, short range SAM equiped fridgates to round out a surface flotilla. Fair amount of land based air and tanking assets now, as well as AWACS. There's a CV possibly getting ready for some training in that area at the least. About the only thing I'd give the JMSDF a clear advantage in is ASW, and in that case, the advantage isn't due to numbers of platforms at this point AFAIK.

 

As for land based air making embarked a/c less necessary, that's a more dicey possibility against the number of MRBMs the PRC has. They might have a hard time smothering more than a few major air bases with enough ordnance to permamently shut them down, but they could trickle in single missiles at a time to all but criple opperations for days or weeks for several different targets if they decided that's where their ballistic missile focus would be. Basically only the US and Japan have sufficient air power to be worth wasing such assets on anyway--Kadena and Guam would be likely targets repeatedly, unless Guam is further away than I think it is.

 

I agree with Thomas assessment.

Edited by Josh
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The Japanese Navy's SSK force remains a generation ahead of the Chinese submarine tech and handling curve, and will continue to remain so. The bulk of the Chinese gap-closing has been remedial. The Soryu class is an example of how quickly the Chinese will have to run on their own from now on to even try and keep up with Japan.

 

I agree that Japanese involvement in a Spratleys escalation would be unlikely. If economic or political implications forced Japanese involvement, the Japanese Navy would determine the winner.

Edited by Nobu
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So what's the deal?

Look at the picture Simon posted. Compare it with this one -

 

They're the same place.

 

Note that even the smaller island shown in the picture above is artificial. Until the 1980s, Layang-layang was just a reef, frequented by fishermen & occasional divers. AFAIK there was nothing above sea level except bits of reef that waves broke over.

 

Most of the Spratlys are like that. There's a handful of tiny natural islands, none of which would take more than a couple of minutes to walk across, hundreds of reefs, shoals, & rocks, & now, a few artificial or enlarged islands.

Edited by swerve
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No Ken, you cannot since you have not a clue as to Layang-layang and how it came to be.

Likely proof of no sense of humor. Simon only likes to attempt to dish it out.

 

I'd not consult him in any case, if I were interested in some island/atoll.

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Eh, stuck in the past? :)

Eh, I have posted before on this. There is still an emperor, there is still a Japanese Navy. Although in the immediate postwar period some fishery protection vessels carried important names, that likely reflected nostalgia, not intent.

 

When new ships named Yamato, Musashi, Akagi, Kaga, Shokaku, Zuikaku are launched, Banshee, you will know it is time. The Japanese have a generational view, whereas we in the west think only quarterly returns, at best.

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Ahh...the know not trying to cover his ignorance. Ken E's homage to Der Weiner.

 

Layang-layang started as a project involving a 20' ISO container laid on the top of a reef that more or less disappeared at high tide.

 

This was followed by years of reclamation, a real bitch in open waters. Those early years, a posting to Layang-layang was considered a punishment detail. Beyond the sea sickness and boredom, there was almost nothing.

 

After many years and hundreds of millions of dollars...they built it up into an anchorage and air strip. The hotel is a sop to 'economic activity', an essential part of any claim. We learned this the hard way with our dispute with Singapore over Preda Branca.

 

Anyway...there is no permanent air presence on Layang-layang (IATA:LAC)but there are several flights a week from Kuala Lumpur + military flights.

 

Our ready support to Layang-layang comnes from Labuan.

 

Simon

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From today's news

 

(updated 4:22 p.m.) The Chinese ambassador to Manila the Philippines on Thursday said Beijing deployed marine surveillance vessels in the disputed Spratly islands but that China has no plans to establish military presence in the contested area.

 

China has not violated any existing accord with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in relation to the disputes in South China Sea — believed to be rich in oil and gas resources, Ambassador Liu Jianchao told Manila-based reporters in a briefing Thursday.

 

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/222959/nation/chinese-envoy-says-marine-vessels-deployed-in-spratlys

 

 

(AP) -- China warned Asian neighbors Thursday to stop searching for oil near the disputed Spratly Islands and vowed to assert its sovereignty over the potentially petroleum-rich territory in the South China Sea despite rival claims.

 

China and the Philippines have swapped diplomatic protests over the islands, with Filipino officials accusing Chinese forces of intruding into Manila-claimed areas...

 

http://www.newsday.com/business/china-to-neighbors-stop-oil-search-in-spratlys-1.2942569?qr=1

A Filipino viewpoint

 

But it’s not only the Philippines that is worried about China’s moves to take over this valuable area: protests have broken out in Vietnam. And, unlike ordinary protests, this one was arranged via facebook, not necessarily by that government, (who has stopped previous anti China rallies.)

 

The US is worried about other issues than a few fishermen being shot at near Palawan. But I suspect that the pacifist rhetoric (albeit not the pacifist actions) of President Obama elsewhere in the world makes China feel that they can get away with stealing this ocean land from the smaller weaker countries that have a better geographic and historical claim to the islands.

http://www.bloggernews.net/126679

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Look at the picture Simon posted. Compare it with this one -

 

They're the same place.

 

Note that even the smaller island shown in the picture above is artificial. Until the 1980s, Layang-layang was just a reef, frequented by fishermen & occasional divers. AFAIK there was nothing above sea level except bits of reef that waves broke over.

 

Most of the Spratlys are like that. There's a handful of tiny natural islands, none of which would take more than a couple of minutes to walk across, hundreds of reefs, shoals, & rocks, & now, a few artificial or enlarged islands.

 

Looks like a lovely place to visit, until a typhoon shows up.

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I believe the US might need to review their relationship within ASEAN and the obligations that they might find themselves obliged to fulfill. Should China feel like destroying their largest market for a questionable amount of oil and gas in either the Paracels or Spratleys; on their heads be it. Personally, all I'm seeing here is certain senior politicos within the Chinese politburo sounding big for internal consumption. The Chinese think ahead, further than most Western nations I'll hasten to add.

I believe the PLAN are going to build 4 new carriers for 2020+. the last 2 will probably be Nuc powered. They are looking ahead at least 10+ years. Sadly I cannot say the same for the UK's shady Govt.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13693495

 

 

Charles

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I thought Mark Jospephs books 'To kill the Potemkin' and 'Typhoon' were rather better. A shame he didnt write more actually, I dont know if he is still alive.

 

Only 4 novels to his name in Amazon

 

http://www.amazon.com/Mark-Joseph/e/B000AQ4V04/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_1

 

He's not that old either: Mark Joseph is an American novelist. He is the author of the novels To Kill the Potemkin and Typhoon, and is a 1967 graduate of the University of California, Berkeley.

 

 

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When new ships named Yamato, Musashi, Akagi, Kaga, Shokaku, Zuikaku are launched, Banshee, you will know it is time. The Japanese have a generational view, whereas we in the west think only quarterly returns, at best.

 

There are two new 19000t ships scheduled to start construction this year, a followup to the Hyuga class of "DDH`s". No names given at the moment........ :ph34r:

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BEIJING (Reuters) - China's Defence Ministry said on Thursday the country's navy would hold "routine" drills at the end of the month in international waters in the western Pacific Ocean.

 

"A formation of ships from the navy of the Chinese People's Liberation Army will hold drills in international waters in the western Pacific in the latter part of June," the ministry said in a brief statement on its website (www.mod.gov.cn).

 

"These are routine drills which are planned every year. They accord with the norms of international law, and are not aimed at any country in particular, nor do they have any special aim," it added.

 

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7582IO20110609

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Layang-layang started as a project involving a 20' ISO container laid on the top of a reef that more or less disappeared at high tide.

 

This was followed by years of reclamation, a real bitch in open waters. Those early years, a posting to Layang-layang was considered a punishment detail. Beyond the sea sickness and boredom, there was almost nothing.

 

After many years and hundreds of millions of dollars...they built it up into an anchorage and air strip. The hotel is a sop to 'economic activity', an essential part of any claim. We learned this the hard way with our dispute with Singapore over Preda Branca.

 

Anyway...there is no permanent air presence on Layang-layang (IATA:LAC)but there are several flights a week from Kuala Lumpur + military flights.

 

Our ready support to Layang-layang comnes from Labuan.

 

Simon

 

ISTR reading somewhere the use of containers and old supertankers for reclamation....

 

Same here, and I think it's still true today, that a posting in the Spratlys was punishment. The Philippine Navy makes few trips there, and few aircraft land there as well. It's almost like exile there, AFAIK. To strengthen our claim, some urban poor or similar were "forcibly" transferred to the Spratlys to create towns in those islands IIRC. Last year, there was talk of opening it up to tourism, to further strengthen our claim, but so far, none of our local airlines have flights there. The entry point for going to the Philippine-claimed parts of the Spratlys is via Puerto Princesa in Palawan, a boat ride usually a PN LST, the trip takes days if not weeks, at a plodding pace, and requires military permits.

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Erm... Hello? Who do you think CONTROLS the Illuminati?:ninja:

 

Exactly.

 

*rubs hands with evil glee*

 

 

The Philippines has been plain stupid WRT strengthening its claim over the Spratlys. It's as if we're relying totally on the MDT we have with the USA. Our politicians are that naive.

 

I remember, during the Ramos admin, we did not push through with a survey of the islands. Same thing with the Estrada admin that came after that. The admin after that, Arroyo, same thing, put in the back burner. Now the present admin has done no different, having aborted a recent planned survey because it will antagonize China. Our current Fearless Leader (he really has no balls) is bending backwards to accommodate China. Sure, we may "protest" and such, but in reality, this is merely for local public consumption. I'm sure the generals and admirals are getting frustrated by the PRC-cocksucking our Fearless Leader is doing. He thinks we owe China Big Time© because of the hostage incident last year. Hence, his subservience. He's risk averse (hence, my No Balls nickname for him) and it shows in our foreign policy. The man is better off being like his dad - dead, shot from behind in the head. <_<

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I believe the US might need to review their relationship within ASEAN and the obligations that they might find themselves obliged to fulfill. Should China feel like destroying their largest market for a questionable amount of oil and gas in either the Paracels or Spratleys; on their heads be it. Personally, all I'm seeing here is certain senior politicos within the Chinese politburo sounding big for internal consumption. The Chinese think ahead, further than most Western nations I'll hasten to add.

I believe the PLAN are going to build 4 new carriers for 2020+. the last 2 will probably be Nuc powered. They are looking ahead at least 10+ years. Sadly I cannot say the same for the UK's shady Govt.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13693495

 

 

Charles

 

I would not rush in and call the reserves in that area "questionable." The Malampaya natural gas project is an indicator of the riches in the region. I reckon it's like Dogger Bank, the place could've been above sea level many years ago, with plant life and such, until sea levels rose. Or old coral (the place is rich in fish) along with whatever sea life there that died off and decayed turned into oil over millions of years. The fish alone makes the place very rich, resource-wise.

 

China is growing, and it needs as much resources as it can get. The Spratlys, with its potentially large natural gas and oil deposits, coupled with the aquatic resources there, will be very valuable for a growing country like China.

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The Phillipines serves as a natural barrier for typhoons.

 

I really do not understand how the Phillipines would ever be able to contest militarily for the Spratleys. It is only marginally stronger in this capability than Brunei. Irrespective of the grandiose plans of Tomas and the alumni of the PMI, the country simply cannot afford to piss money away on grandstanding projects like the Spratleys with the much more severe security challenges they face.

 

Sorry Tomas but until you sub out the governance of the PI to Lee & Sons Management Pte Ltd, the PI woukd be throwing good money it does not have after bad.

 

The PRC will not take on all comers. Rather they will cut side deals with the Viets etc. and eventually squeeze out each in turn.

 

Virtually every government in the region can be bought.

 

Simon

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I really do not understand how the Phillipines would ever be able to contest militarily for the Spratleys.

 

Step I: Someone invades Philippines claim on Spratlys.

Step 2: Tomas dons his fur cap and overthrows the government of Philippines.

Step 3: Gates of his secret docks open and vast armada of fighting cyborgs with tentacles swarms out.

Step 4: After vanquishing the first enemy, the armada continues forth

Step 5: Tomas creates Greater Asia Co-prosperity Sphere and issues ultimatum to the rest of the world.

Step 6: TankNet denizens are fed to piranhas so that we cannot tell anyone about the background of Toma's rise to power B)

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Tentacle cyborgs all short out upon first contact with water as substandard parts were used in their manufacture. Tomas mumbles and goes back to drawing board. It is the way of the PI.

 

Ever heard of deceiving potential enemies? A trivial matter for Master of Evil!

 

(straining ears for black helicopters)

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Step I: Someone invades Philippines claim on Spratlys.

Step 2: Tomas dons his fur cap and overthrows the government of Philippines.

Step 3: Gates of his secret docks open and vast armada of fighting cyborgs with tentacles swarms out.

Step 4: After vanquishing the first enemy, the armada continues forth

Step 5: Tomas creates Greater Asia Co-prosperity Sphere and issues ultimatum to the rest of the world.

Step 6: TankNet denizens are fed to piranhas so that we cannot tell anyone about the background of Toma's rise to power B)

 

Sometimes, I really have to wonder if you're doing this on purpose so I can dispatch the Stripper Assassins. I mean, you seem so eager to have a meeting with them....

 

 

Tentacle cyborgs all short out upon first contact with water as substandard parts were used in their manufacture. Tomas mumbles and goes back to drawing board. It is the way of the PI.

 

Ah yes. Swallowed the maskirovka. No Stripper Assassins for you.

 

 

 

Srsly....

 

Ah yes, the Singapore Model of Leadership and Governance. Some of us here in the Philippines think that we need such. "Benevolent Dictatorship" that's what they want. Sen. Ping Lacson* is one of them. Mayor Alfredo Lim** is another. What some people here fail to understand is that we DID go through a "benevolent dictatorship" before, albeit a short one, until it became a full-fledged dictatorship (Marcos Regime).

 

No. We do not need Lee & Sons. What we need is a wholesale re-education of the citizenry. And if that means glassing 99% of the country, so be it.

 

* - A murderer, closet ghey (so says RUMINT), and a nutcase (RUMINT sez he presented himself to the US .gov as an "alternative" during the height of the protests against Estrada - complete in Philippine National Police general uniform; he is among those who still think it's the Cold War and that Russia is still the USSR and that there's a war still going on in Indochina, and that the Godless Commie Hordes are knocking on our doors, blah blah blah....)

 

** - Of the "LET'S JAIL ALL OF THEM!" ilk. <_<

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