Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys

[DavT]

Make the Chinese and any other claimants involved laugh themselves to death.

[TonyE]

What's the Raja Humabon supposed to do, bleed on them?

 

Son, when the BRP Rajah Humabon leads the philippine battleline steaming out of Manila Bay, pure liquid glory float in their wake.

 

A few solid broadsides and a crossing of their "T" will send the commie reds hauling back to the mainland and the philippine fleet will have the day.

[Archie Pellagio]

pure liquid glory float in their wake.

 

Is that something like a golden shower?

[chino]

A war over the Spratlys will be very bad for us. At best, we might keep just a few of the islands, at worst we lose EVERYTHING (including our military toys).

 

I suspect that it will be fought in small doses like in the 1980s as opposed to a huge prolonged battle.

 

The fighting will be small enough (but with loss of life and material) for the US to intervene early with a show of force.

 

PLAN will back off.

 

China is also bluffing. While it is happy for any chance to blast the Vietnamese as they are technically still enemies (they were still fighting little known land skirmishes with Vietnam up till late 90s), they will think more than twice about confronting the USN - over a few coral reefs they (China) are trying to hijack.

 

Oil and gas may be precious commodities but fighting the USN to get them will cost too much. There is no national pride or security issues involved regarding the Spratlys unlike earlier land border wars. So it is all about money.

 

A result of conflict over the Spratlys could mean that the Philippines' allies may donate more military and other aid.

 

The Philippines may once again invite the USN back to Subic Bay which is a good thing for security. Kicking them out in the first place was a bad decision because 20 years later, the Philippines is still dependent on the US for defense... only the US is no longer there.

 

Kicking the US out of Philippines remains the key reason for China's bold moves today on the Spratlys.

 

I highly doubt Japan will be involved, or permit its territory to be used for a fight it wants no part. Japan has its own territorial problems with an even more aggressive and dangerous Russia. And furthermore, Japanese businesses are making a lot of money in China, so Japan will risk it all so Vietnam or Philippines may get a few islands? No.

 

Nor will South Korea get involved directly, or even implicitly, IMO. Same as Japan, Korean companies are all over China. I just bought a Samsung TV and a LG DVD player, all made-in-China.

 

Taiwan position is much the same. Taiwan's economy is non-existent except for its close business-ties with the mainland. Plus it has that very much more complex issue of eventual reunification with China. So will it go to war with China over the Spratlys? No.

 

Of all the claimants, it seems predominantly the Philippines and Vietnam are the only ones who would risk military action.

Edited June 17, 2011 by chino

[Nobu]

I highly doubt Japan will be involved, or permit its territory to be used for a fight it wants no part. Japan has its own territorial problems with an even more aggressive and dangerous Russia. And furthermore, Japanese businesses are making a lot of money in China, so Japan will risk it all so Vietnam or Philippines may get a few islands? No.

Chinese flexibility on its position re: Japan's deserved and overdue ascension to permanent UNSC member status with veto power would likely influence Japan's position regarding the Spratleys.

 

There comes a time when the interests of the two most fiscally responsible powers in the region with the most to lose from any conflict must converge.

Edited June 18, 2011 by Nobu

[Nobu]

That's really not the way international debt and finance works.

It is for most Americans, many of who vote. Prepare for a groundswell of support for the idea of a default. A war would give these folks--many of whom go in for vanity causes such as lecturing the people of a nation with a $5.5 trillion GDP what they must or must not eat--further notions.

[Kenneth P. Katz]

I'm trying to think of a stupider idea than the United States getting into a war with China over the Spratley Islands. No luck so far, but I'll be sure to tell you if I do.

[Simon Tan]

Argentina making another run at the Malvinas, on account of the Brits not having any real means of staging Corporate Redux.

[chino]

I'm trying to think of a stupider idea than the United States getting into a war with China over the Spratley Islands. No luck so far, but I'll be sure to tell you if I do.

 

USN will probably come to try and stop the fighting, not JOIN in.

 

I think the US will hesitate to risk the lives of its men to help the Philippines secure some deserted coral reefs.

 

But who knows. Everyone's gambling.

[Nobu]

USN will probably come to try and stop the fighting, not JOIN in.

 

I think the US will hesitate to risk the lives of its men to help the Philippines secure some deserted coral reefs.

 

But who knows. Everyone's gambling.

If the Chinese are seen as the aggressors, the United States will be in violation of treaty if it does not intervene. A similar treaty binds the United States to the defense of Japan if any territories under Japanese administration come under attack. There would be strategic implications.

Edited June 19, 2011 by Nobu

[X-Files]

This month, NPR is examining the many ways China is expanding its reach in the world — through investments, infrastructure, military power and more.

 

http://www.npr.org/2011/06/20/136901727/chinas-growing-military-muscle-a-looming-threat

 

Jabin Jacob, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi, is also skeptical about the string of pearls theory.

 

He says India's policy planners should be more concerned with the way China is using its military in what are called "military operations other than war," such as anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia.

 

"How will you deal with a China that is actively crisscrossing the Indian Ocean, and building up relations with other Indian Ocean littoral states where India has traditionally held sway?" he asks.

 

India needs to involve itself actively with its smaller neighbors and their problems, if it wants to maintain its influence, he says.

 

http://www.npr.org/2011/06/20/137061379/indians-uneasy-as-china-builds-ports-nearby

[Corinthian]

The Philippines may once again invite the USN back to Subic Bay which is a good thing for security. Kicking them out in the first place was a bad decision because 20 years later, the Philippines is still dependent on the US for defense... only the US is no longer there.

 

Kicking the US out of Philippines remains the key reason for China's bold moves today on the Spratlys.

 

This I disagree. It's time we stopped sucking tit and start getting serious on our external defense. If the US cut the defense umbilical cord completely, our politicians would (hopefully) get more serious about modernizing the armed forces.

 

Taiwan's economy is non-existent except for its close business-ties with the mainland.

 

I am interested in this. PM me for details. Always thought they had a bustling economy.

[BansheeOne]

They have (though as everybody else, they took a hit in the recent global crisis). They do have extensive ties with mainland China, too, recently augmented by the ECFA free trade agreement and the preceeding extension of direct air, ship and mail connections under the détente since the Kuomintang won the last national elections (strangely, the old civil war adversaries are much more at ease with each other due to their shared vision of a single China than the Communists are with Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party, which is much more independent-minded).

 

Overall, the Taiwanese have invested some eleven- or twelve-digit dollar amount on the mainland for the usual reasons: They have sophisticated technology, the Chinese offer cheap production cost; something "Made in Taiwan" will usually at least partially be Made in China, too. It's not so much that Taiwan's economy would be non-existant without China's, rather a large part of either is so intertwined that it's almost indistinguishable. It comes to the point where Western firms who want to do business on the huge Chinese market set up shop in Taiwan and take advantage of ECFA because they have all their usual rights there, while on the mainland they are forced to have joint ventures with Chinese partners and will more often than not have their intellectually property stolen for their trouble.

[chino]

This I disagree. It's time we stopped sucking tit and start getting serious on our external defense. If the US cut the defense umbilical cord completely, our politicians would (hopefully) get more serious about modernizing the armed forces.

 

Even assuming the Philippines has the financial resources, it will still take you a very long time to be well-equipped enough to guard against a big military power like China. Which was why having the USN is important to the region's security. It is not just for the defence of the Philippines alone.

 

After loss of Subic Bay Singapore offered to host some of the USN, but Singapore cannot match the size of facilities nor the irreplaceable strategic location the Philippines offered.

 

If the USN was still at Subic, China wouldn't be so bold.

 

 

I am interested in this. PM me for details. Always thought they had a bustling economy.

Bad choice of words on my part - what I meant to say is that Taiwan's economy is intricately tied to Mainland China.

[Corinthian]

Even assuming the Philippines has the financial resources, it will still take you a very long time to be well-equipped enough to guard against a big military power like China. Which was why having the USN is important to the region's security. It is not just for the defence of the Philippines alone.

 

After loss of Subic Bay Singapore offered to host some of the USN, but Singapore cannot match the size of facilities nor the irreplaceable strategic location the Philippines offered.

 

If the USN was still at Subic, China wouldn't be so bold.

 

Every now and then, the USN has been visiting Subic, ostensibly for the Balikatan exercises. Although really, Subic (other than Manila Bay) has the size and depth to accommodate a CVBG. Two or three times though, a CVBG has anchored in Manila Bay instead of Subic.

 

As for time and resources, indeed. I was reading the papers and apparently, our military modernization law which was passed years ago mandated that the military be modernized in 15 years. 16 years after, only a small portion of that modernization fund has been used. And judging from the number of camo uniforms we have, I have a pretty good idea where that modernization spending went.

 

Recently, No-Balls authorized an increase in the military spending budget. Now the military has lots of money to buy new toys. Of course, that "lots of money" is in Philippine Pesos, so really a small amount when translated to dollars. Which isn't enough to buy a squadron of F-16s or patrol vessels.

 

Meanwhile, the generals get fatter and travel more and more....

[Jeff]

Is that something like a golden shower?

Indeed, there will be plenty of liquid glory streaming down pant legs at that point and it won't be Chinese.

[pikachu]

Indeed, there will be plenty of liquid glory streaming down pant legs at that point and it won't be Chinese.

 

Well, I finally figured out what's so funny about the idea of the mighty Rajah Humabon challenging PLAN for control of the Spratlys. I noticed that the "civilian" CMSA Haixun-31 is more than twice the size of the Philippines Navy flagship.... At least the up-and-coming BRP Gregorio del Pillar will finally be able to put the Chinese patrol boat to shame (as long as her sister ship doesn't show up).

[X-Files]

Yeah, take that you Imperialist Running Dogs! You can come be our coolies...

 

 

BEIJING — The Chinese vice foreign minister warned the United States on Wednesday to stay out of the increasingly tense territorial disputes and maritime conflicts in the South China Sea, which has some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world and is believed to be rich in oil and natural gas reserves.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/23/world/asia/23china.html

 

BEIJING—On the eve of talks with the U.S., China warned against American involvement in the increasingly tense territorial disputes in the South China Sea and accused some of China's neighbors of "playing with fire."

 

Cui Tiankai, vice minister of foreign affairs, blamed other countries in the region—and later singled out Vietnam—for provocation in recent incidents that have rekindled longstanding acrimony over control of areas in the vast stretch of water between them. And he dismissed calls from Vietnam and the Philippines for the U.S. to play a role in resolving those tensions, admonishing that Washington should "approach such issues in a very prudent way."

 

"I believe some countries now are playing with fire," Mr. Cui told a small group of reporters Wednesday. "And I hope the U.S. won't be burned by this fire."

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303970604576401260613634844.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 

 

If China is able to get past the political, economic and even military barriers to building such an all-encompassing regional network, the benefits in terms of economic development in Asia will be enormous. It would be particularly advantageous to the less-developed nations, such as Cambodia and Myanmar, as well as to China.

 

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11173/1155241-374-0.stm#ixzz1Q11OTMcM

[Steven P Allen]

Here's irony for ya: the USN representing/defending Vietnamese interests in the face of Chinese aggression. . . .

[Yama]

Here's irony for ya: the USN representing/defending Vietnamese interests in the face of Chinese aggression. . . .

 

That's the way it goes: during Napoleonic times, idea of French and English teaming up against Germans would have sounded completely ludicrous...

[X-Files]

Japan? what does Japan has to do with the Spratlys?

 

 

Events tend to expand in predictable ways, like ripples from a pebble in a pond.

 

TOKYO – Japan's Defense Ministry said Thursday 11 Chinese warships were spotted in international waters off the country's southern island of Okinawa.

 

No territorial violations were claimed by Japan, but the movements are sensitive because Japan and China have a dispute over small islands in the East China Sea.

 

The ministry on Thursday said the Chinese warships were monitored passing from the Pacific Ocean into the East China Sea.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110623/ap_on_re_as/as_japan_china;_ylt=AqMTzPtkTLuoEHDKoTLsndi9F4l4;_ylu=X3oDMTM1cW9lMG1jBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNjIzL2FzX2phcGFuX2NoaW5hBGNjb2RlA2dtcHRvcDIwMHBvb2wEY3BvcwM3BHBvcwM3BHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDY2hpbmVzZXdhcnNo

Edited June 23, 2011 by X-Files

[chino]

I could be wrong but the SCS (South China Sea) is kinda like the chokepoint between the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.

 

Therefore, should conflict arise involving China - and should China appear to be winning - there is absolutely no chance the US will/can stay out.

 

On whose side or on what pretext remains to be seen.

[chino]

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/23/world/asia/23china.html

 

Quotation from this nytimes link"

 

"In giving his warning, Mr. Cui hinted that anti-American fervor could be brewing. “To be honest with you, the Chinese public is following very closely whether the United States will adopt a just and objective position on matters like these,” he said."

 

He's speaking for himself and probably a small minority of ordinary Chinese people.

 

Most ordinary people in China couldn't care less about the Spratlys.

 

To quote one of my male Chinese colleague whom is a keen follower of Spratlys news: "... the infamous U-shape claim of China on the SCS is ridiculous. Anyone can see it is closer to other countries than it is to China."

 

Having said this, I do believe unfortunately that once the shooting starts, any kind of level-headed thinking on all sides would vanish.

Edited June 23, 2011 by chino

[X-Files]

 

Having said this, I do believe unfortunately that once the shooting starts, any kind of level-headed thinking on all sides would vanish.

 

Bingo.

 

Fascinating to watch a real-life petri dish breed the sort of chaotic "WTF?" we've read far too much about in military history.

 

 

Therefore, should conflict arise involving China - and should China appear to be winning - there is absolutely no chance the US will/can stay out.

 

Like I said, if I was playing Beijing's hand I'd wait - or help engineer - a distraction that would keep the USN PAC fleet out of the game.

Edited June 23, 2011 by X-Files

[Steven P Allen]

Quotation from this nytimes link"

 

"In giving his warning, Mr. Cui hinted that anti-American fervor could be brewing. “To be honest with you, the Chinese public is following very closely whether the United States will adopt a just and objective position on matters like these,” he said."

 

 

 

Translation: "Our finance people are waiting to see how hard we need to lean on the US financially should the US try to assert its power in our backyard."

 

 

We have put our selves over the Chinese barrel.