Jump to content

Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys


X-Files

Recommended Posts

Vietnam cancels oil development in SCS due to PRC pressure.

 

HANOI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Vietnam has halted an oil drilling project in the “Red Emperor” block off its southeastern coast licensed to Spanish energy firm Repsol (REP.MC) following pressure from China, three sources with direct knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Friday.

 

It would be the second time in less than a year that Vietnam has had to suspend a major oil development in the busy South China Sea waterway under pressure from China.

 

A source with direct knowledge of the situation said government ministries in Vietnam had paused the project while the decision-making politburo debates whether to suspend or indefinitely terminate the contract.

 

The decision, which hangs on whether the fees incurred by contract cancellation will exceed the cost of resisting Chinese pressure, is on hold until the politburo meets, the source said.

 

That meeting has been delayed by overseas trips by Vietnam’s prime minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, a series of visits by foreign dignitaries to Hanoi, and the death of former prime minister Phan Van Khai on Saturday.

 

“The ministries are determined to terminate the contract,” said the source, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation.

 

A source with direct knowledge of the situation confirmed that the project, which is a joint venture with state oil company PetroVietnam, had been stopped following pressure from China.

 

A source at Repsol told Reuters high-level executives had been discussing how to respond to the pressure, which had been applied both directly by China, and indirectly via Vietnam.

 

A spokesman for Repsol in Madrid declined to comment. PetroVietnam executives declined to comment. The Vietnamese foreign ministry did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

 

Asked at a regular briefing if China had pressed either Vietnam or Repsol, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said she did not know where such news had come from, but did not elaborate.

 

“We hope the relevant sides can work together to maintain the hard-earned positive situation in the South China Sea,” she said.

 

‘RED EMPEROR’

Red Emperor, known in Vietnamese as the Ca Rong Do field, is part of Block 07/03 in the Nam Con Son basin, 440 km (273 miles) off the coast of Vietnam’s southern city of Vung Tau.

 

The $1-billion field of moderate size by international standards is seen as a key asset to help slow the decline of Vietnam’s stalling oil and gas production.

 

But the block lies near the U-shaped “nine-dash line” that marks the vast area that China claims in the sea and overlaps what it says are its own oil concessions.

 

Located in waters around 350 metres (1,148 ft) deep, it is considered to be profitable from around $60 per barrel. Current Brent crude oil prices LCOc1 are almost $70 per barrel.

 

The field’s estimated potential recovery is around 45 million barrels of crude oil, 172 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 2.3 million barrels of condensate, a super light form of crude oil that is mostly a byproduct of gas production.

 

Global crude oil, by comparison, is at almost 100 million barrels per day. Global gas consumption is around 4 trillion cubic metres per year.

 

The move came as Repsol was making final preparations for commercial drilling, according to the BBC, which first reported the news on Friday.

 

A rig, the Ensco 8504, was due to depart from Singapore for the drill site on Thursday, the BBC said, citing an unnamed energy industry source.

 

Repsol spent around 33 million euros ($41 million) on exploration in Vietnam last year, according to the company’s 2017 profit and loss statement.

 

Repsol’s top management considers the Red Emperor site one of the company’s future growth projects.

 

Repsol, which has a 51.75 percent stake in the project, signed a 384-million-euro rental contract for a rig to start work on a Vietnamese site in 2019, according to the statement.

 

Just under half the company’s 1 billion euro ($1.23 billion) investments for which contracts have been signed for 2018 are in Vietnam.

 

(This refiled version of the story clarifies attribution in paragraph seven).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-southchinasea-vietnam/vietnam-halts-south-china-sea-oil-drilling-project-under-pressure-from-beijing-idUKKBN1GZ0JF

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

About 40 PRC ships sailing with Liaoning in SCS with some aircraft overhead.

40row.jpg

 

40row2.jpg

 

 

HANOI/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Dozens of Chinese naval vessels are exercising this week with an aircraft carrier in a large show of force off Hainan island in the South China Sea, satellite images obtained by Reuters show.

The images, provided by Planet Labs Inc, confirm a Chinese carrier group has entered the vital trade waterway as part of what the Chinese navy earlier described as combat drills that were part of routine annual exercises.

The Liaoning carrier group last week traversed the Taiwan Strait, according to the Taiwanese defense ministry.

The photos, taken on Monday, show what appear to be at least 40 ships and submarines flanking the carrier Liaoning in what some analysts described as an unusually large display of the Chinese military’s growing naval might.

Sailing in a line formation more suited to visual propaganda than hard military maneuvers, the flotilla was headed by what appeared to be submarines, with aircraft above.

Jeffrey Lewis, a security expert at the California-based based Middlebury Institute of Strategic Studies, said the images showed the first confirmation that the carrier was joining the drills.

“It’s an incredible picture,” he said. “That’s the big news to me. Confirmation that, yes, the carrier participated in the exercise.”

While the Liaoning has previously entered the South China Sea as part of drills in uncontested training grounds south of Hainan, its annual exercises are closely watched by regional and international powers eyeing Beijing’s growing military might.

It is unclear where the flotilla was headed, or how long operations will last. China’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to a faxed request for comment.

Collin Koh, a security expert at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, described the deployment as unusual for its size and scope.

“Judging by the images, it does seem they are keen to show that elements of the South Sea Fleet are able to routinely join up with the carrier strike group from Dalian in the north,” he said.

“It does seem they want to show inter-fleet interoperability - something the (Chinese) navy has been quietly working on for some time.”

Chinese naval and coast guard forces have expanded rapidly in recent years and now patrol the vast swathes of the South China Sea, but little is known about their combat readiness and co-ordination.

Koh said as well as the destroyers, frigates and submarines that would ordinarily support a carrier, the flotilla appeared to include a large oiler for re-supply as well as smaller corvettes and possibly fast attack catamarans.

“While it highlights an extensive ability to deploy, we are still left to guess at the PLAN’s combat readiness,” Koh said.

As well as Vietnam, China’s claims in the South China Sea are disputed by the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei while Taiwan also has claims.

The exercises come amid fresh signs of tension in the resource-rich waterway, with Vietnam recently halting oil exploration off its coast by Spanish firm Repsol under pressure from Beijing.

Beijing also objected to a so-called freedom of navigation patrol by a U.S. warship last week close to one of its artificial islands in the Spratlys archipelago further south.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence/exclusive-satellite-images-reveal-show-of-force-by-chinese-navy-in-south-china-sea-idUSKBN1H3135

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The PLAN can always assume the US is watching. It's actually one of their pet peeves that they can't have an exercise or a shake down cruise without the USN literally listening to everything they say and do. This was for their benefit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Always with the "it's not a big deal" mentality. Whether or not the US can listen to everything, the PLAN will have to practice anyway in order to know how to use all their new toys. The picture may show a picture of them all lined up. But who said that that was the only thing they did? http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2018-03/25/content_7982607.htm Practicing still improves their capabilities to be better ready for if ever a time or opportunity to take action arrives. If at that time, the US lacks the financial or political capital to take action against a well practiced PLAN, then there is no cashing in on the listening experience.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't mind me, just my usual heretic self with another post.

 

 

China’s military will hold combat exercises in the South China Sea every month “unlike in previous years,” a military analyst told China’s state-run Global Times.

The English-language Chinese newspaper under the People’s Daily announced early this week that it has started its combat exercises in West Pacific and the South China Sea.

At the same time, the Chinese newspaper also announced that the monthly drills are aimed to test the navy’s combat readiness.

“The 2018 drills will be routine and will be held every month, unlike in previous years,” military expert Song Zhongping was quoted as saying in a Global Times article last Sunday.

“The South China Sea and East China Sea will be primary battlegrounds. The PLA [People’s Liberation Army] is committed to be battle-ready through simulated combat training,” Song added.

Wang Xiaopeng, a maritime border expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also told Global Times that “the drills do not target any specific country but they are focusing on enhancing China’s capability to safeguard the country’s sovereignty.”

On Wednesday, Reuters reported that China held large-scale naval exercises off Hainan Island in the South China Sea this week.

Satellite images from Planet Labs, which were obtained by the international news agency, showed at least 40 ships and submarines flanking China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning, to which analysts described as “unusually large display of the Chinese military’s growing naval might.”

The report of the drills comes after the US-guided missile destroyer USS Mustin sailed within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef in the Spratly archipelago. It is an island controlled by China but the international court ruled in The Hague ruled in 2016 that it belongs to the Philippines.

China referred to the US operation as a serious “military provocation.”

https://globalnation.inquirer.net/165349/china-hold-monthly-combat-drills-south-china-sea-china-south-china-sea-news-navy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Always with the "it's not a big deal" mentality. Whether or not the US can listen to everything, the PLAN will have to practice anyway in order to know how to use all their new toys. The picture may show a picture of them all lined up. But who said that that was the only thing they did? http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2018-03/25/content_7982607.htm Practicing still improves their capabilities to be better ready for if ever a time or opportunity to take action arrives. If at that time, the US lacks the financial or political capital to take action against a well practiced PLAN, then there is no cashing in on the listening experience.

I didn't mean to belittle the amount of firepower they are displaying, that was just my explanation for the venue: they knew they would be seen, even in the open sea, and absolutely meant to be seen. And it is impressive; it's not like the Soviets could have put on a larger display.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Always with the "it's not a big deal" mentality. Whether or not the US can listen to everything, the PLAN will have to practice anyway in order to know how to use all their new toys. The picture may show a picture of them all lined up. But who said that that was the only thing they did? http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2018-03/25/content_7982607.htm Practicing still improves their capabilities to be better ready for if ever a time or opportunity to take action arrives. If at that time, the US lacks the financial or political capital to take action against a well practiced PLAN, then there is no cashing in on the listening experience.

 

Having intelligence on rivals always pays off. Doing pointless formation keeping exercises detracts from useful training, even if not much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Always with the "it's not a big deal" mentality. Whether or not the US can listen to everything, the PLAN will have to practice anyway in order to know how to use all their new toys. The picture may show a picture of them all lined up. But who said that that was the only thing they did? http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2018-03/25/content_7982607.htm Practicing still improves their capabilities to be better ready for if ever a time or opportunity to take action arrives. If at that time, the US lacks the financial or political capital to take action against a well practiced PLAN, then there is no cashing in on the listening experience.

 

Having intelligence on rivals always pays off. Doing pointless formation keeping exercises detracts from useful training, even if not much.

 

 

Why do you think the "pointless formation exercise" is the only thing that they did?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

What makes you think I believe that's the only thing they did?

Never seen a formation sailing done by a different navy?

 

 

As a photo op, for sure, at the end of exercises. With 40 ships for no reason at all, no.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to say that running surfaced submarines in formation with surface ships is a distinctly PLAN thing as far as I know. But I've certainly seen the US focus a half dozen CVs into a single columned formation before. Perhaps not fourty ships, but in terms of firepower, rather more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd never seen US boats do it. I can imagine it's incredibly stressful for boat crews - not only do you have to deal with the chop, but it opens up a whole new level of navigation issues that a sub can usually ignore, since they usually operate alone and where they generally can't run into anything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

I don't think this was what Washington had in mind when it decided to press the issue of Chinese claims in the South China Sea that date back to Chiang Kai-Shek.

 

At this rate of progress, it would not surprise me to see Beijing and Taiwan issue a joint communique on the status of Itu Aba at some point.

 

Nobody in America was watching the Chinese Beiyang Fleet strut, but it appears that a Filipino or two may have been.

 

China-Philippines oil and gas exploration deal for South China Sea ‘near’

The Philippine Foreign Secretary Cayetano reveals during Hong Kong trip that Beijing and Manila have accepted each other’s ‘red lines’ regarding sovereignty claims

By Bhavan Jaipragas

12 Apr 2018/ UPDATED ON 13 Apr 2018

 

The Philippines and China are forging ahead with plans for joint oil and gas exploration in the disputed South China Sea, even as both sides recognise and accept each other’s firm “red lines” in protecting their sovereignty claims.

 

In an exclusive interview with the South China Morning Post, the Philippine Foreign Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano said that a solid guarantee from China that it would not build new installations on Scarborough Shoal – a rocky outcrop claimed by both Beijing and Manila – formed the basis of the cooperation between the two neighbours.

 

“We separate the two [issues]... China drew some red lines. We drew some red lines. Our red line is building in uninhabited areas including Scarborough,” Cayetano said.

Edited by Nobu
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

As three Australian navy ships were on their way to visit Vietnam, they were challenged (radio messaging I guess) politely by PLAN.

 

Three Australian warships were challenged by the Chinese military as they travelled through the disputed South China Sea earlier this month, the ABC can reveal.

 

The confrontations with the People's Liberation Army are believed to have occurred as China was conducting its largest ever naval exercises in the hotly contested waters.

 

Defence sources have confirmed HMAS Anzac, HMAS Toowoomba and HMAS Success were challenged by the PLA Navy as they were transiting towards Vietnam where they are now conducting a three-day goodwill visit in Ho Chi Minh City.

 

One official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, insisted the exchanges with the Chinese were polite, but "robust".

 

The Defence Department refused to answer questions or discuss details of the interactions between the Australian warships and the Chinese military.

 

In a statement, it confirmed HMAS Anzac and HMAS Success recently travelled through the South China Sea after leaving Subic Bay in the Philippines, while HMAS Toowoomba also went through the disputed waters after departing from Kota Kinabalu in Malaysia.

 

"The Australian Defence Force has maintained a robust program of international engagement with countries in and around the South China Sea for decades," the department told the ABC.

 

"This includes bilateral and multilateral military exercises, port visits, maritime surveillance operations and ship transits."

 

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull would not confirm the incident but reiterated Australia's right to conduct freedom of navigation exercises in the area.

 

"We maintain and practise the right of freedom of navigation and overflight throughout the world, and in this context, naval vessels on the world's oceans including the South China Sea, as is our perfect right in accordance with international law," he said.

 

Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne also reiterated Australia's rights within international law and downplayed the seriousness of the incident.

 

"I think 'confrontation' is somewhat of a tabloid-style description of what goes on in the South China Sea very regularly," he said.

 

In a statement, China's Defence Ministry said: "The reports from Australia are different from the facts".

 

"On April 15 China's naval vessels encountered Australian naval ships in the South China Sea. China's ships used professional language to communicate with the Australian side. China's operation is lawful and conforms to conventions. It is professional and safe."

 

During their port visit to Ho Chi Minh City, HMAS Anzac, HMAS Toowoomba and HMAS Success will conduct a logistic resupply and local engagement with Vietnam People's Armed Forces and local government officials.

 

Earlier this month, Beijing boasted of the largest-ever military exercises by the Chinese navy in the contested South China Sea.

 

In the rare display, China brought much of its naval hardware for the world to see 10,000 personnel, 76 fighter jets, 48 naval vessels, a nuclear powered submarine and China's first aircraft carrier.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-20/south-china-sea-australian-warships-challenged-by-chinese/9677908

Edited by JasonJ
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

The United States is decisively engaged in the aftermath of the National Elections and the fallout from 21 December 2012. The PRC makes stops apologizing and starts seriously flexing their muscles, forcing Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines to become reluctant allies.

 

The Vietnamese have lost the combat experience edge they held during the Sino-Vietnamese War.

 

What happens next?

 

 

NEW DELHI: India will hold its first naval exercise with Vietnam next week, as part of the overall strategy to steadily build military ties with nations in the Asia Pacific region with an eye firmly on a confrontationist and expansionist China, even as defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman is slated to visit Hanoi next month.

The chief of general staff of the Vietnam People's Army and the commander-in chief of Vietnam People's Navy are also slated to visit India later this year.

India is also set to train Vietnamese fighter pilots to fly the Sukhoi-30 fighter jets, much like it has been tutoring sailors from that country on the complex art of operating Kilo-class submarines for the last four years, as earlier reported by TOI. Apart from regular port calls by warships, the Indian Navy cooperates with the Vietnam People's Navy on a wide range of issues from operational interactions and training to logistics support and exchange of experts.

 

 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/with-an-eye-on-china-india-to-hold-naval-exercise-with-vietnam/articleshow/64241913.cms

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...