This ought to be good for a nice, long thread...

[EchoFiveMike]

SAC was ready to cauterize USSR in 1954-55, not the 60's, and that was with us basically fucking off and dropping our rucks from 1946-48. While the Germans were (maybe) beating the USSR, the USA would be developing it's strategic bombing program and it's B29 fleet at the expense of Japan, something Germany would have no need or even capability to do while locked into a deathmatch with USSR. FW400,etc never progressed past the wooden model stage, at a time when the USA was already prototyping B36.

 

After the end of WWII, the USA basically fucked off for three years WRT the nuclear delivery program, something that would not likely happen with a tangible threat like Nazi Germany, vice a notional "Allied" USSR. S/F....Ken M

[eurico_viegas]

The US was already planning starting in July40 the occupation or seizure of the Azores, along with VichyFrench Martiniue in the Carib.

 

With an armistice of sorts in place between Germany and the UK, the balance of power within Portugal would:

 

1) go towards a Axis-sympathetic position, in which the seizure of the Azores would lead to Portugal requesting the Axis assistance to regain it and therefore sparking open war.

 

2) the Britphile faction stays somewhat dominant and asks for US help, which would IMO lead to an agreement for usage of both mainland Portugal, the Azores and the Cape Verde islands. On a related note, when the monarchy was toppled, the first country to recognize the Republic was the US. The first republican cabinet missed what could have been a great oportunity for Portugal to become a preferential US ally in Europe.

 

 

edited for caps.

Edited May 24, 2011 by eurico_viegas

[shep854]

The Jews have only been mentioned peripherally and in conjunction with The Bomb, but suppose Hitler had had a fit of sanity and restrained his anti-Semitism? He could have had the talent and productivity of the Jewish population to contribute to the war effort. For example, I have little doubt that Germany would have had The Bomb first, since it was Jewish expats who developed the thing.

[RETAC21]

The Jews have only been mentioned peripherally and in conjunction with The Bomb, but suppose Hitler had had a fit of sanity and restrained his anti-Semitism? He could have had the talent and productivity of the Jewish population to contribute to the war effort. For example, I have little doubt that Germany would have had The Bomb first, since it was Jewish expats who developed the thing.

 

Then he wouldn't have been Hitler.

[Detonable]

I can't imagine the United States would just one day decide to massively nuke Germany, a country at peace with us, Britain, and France. Large numbers of Americans were of German origin then.

[rmgill]

You are forgetting the premise:

 

We have no bases near Germany, either. You are assuming we have British bases - fair enough, if you assume the Brit Commonwealth isn't neutral. Not a safe assumption in the alt-history as postulated.

 

But it was suggested that B-36Bs fly from CONUS bases, escorted by long-range fighters flying out of...well I don't know where. Maybe long-range fighters launched from carriers in the Atlantic. The bombers are certainly not going to fly alone to drop bombs on Germany.

 

They were going to fly alone to drop bombs on the USSR.

[rmgill]

SAC was ready to cauterize USSR in 1954-55, not the 60's, and that was with us basically fucking off and dropping our rucks from 1946-48. While the Germans were (maybe) beating the USSR, the USA would be developing it's strategic bombing program and it's B29 fleet at the expense of Japan, something Germany would have no need or even capability to do while locked into a deathmatch with USSR. FW400,etc never progressed past the wooden model stage, at a time when the USA was already prototyping B36.

 

After the end of WWII, the USA basically fucked off for three years WRT the nuclear delivery program, something that would not likely happen with a tangible threat like Nazi Germany, vice a notional "Allied" USSR. S/F....Ken M

 

DING DING DING!

[glenn239]

We have no bases near Germany, either.

 

With only US resources, I'd think using Iceland to invade Norway, then bombing Germany from Scandinavia might work.

 

If we assume that Germany won in Russia, and that it also mobilized its economy much more extensively and rationally, we may be dealing with a massively expanded Luftwaffe in terms of logistics, spare parts, airframes and trained pilots

 

In the long term this may be true. But in the shorter term the German war industry is diverted to defeating and then occupying vast swaths of Russia, then rebuilding communications in order to recover natural resources. The Red Army is pushed further and further east, but I doubt that it is ever defeated in the sense of the Soviet government capitulates to Germany and its army marches into the POW cages. What probably happens is that Stalin’s resources dwindle downwards to a point where only a fraction of the German army is required to then neutralize it. I’m wondering whether even 5 years in the Germans will have hit the ‘break even’ point – where resources extracted are greater than those committed to Russia’s conquest.

[JWB]

The USN could fight its way through the North Sea then attack German coastal cities using large torpedoes tipped with A-bombs.

[Assessor]

The USN could fight its way through the North Sea then attack German coastal cities using large torpedoes tipped with A-bombs.

Fat Man and Little Boy both weighed in excess of four tonnes. Not withstanding you could shave some weight off by removing the aerodynamic bits, you're still roughly ten times the warhead weight of a Japanese type 93 26" torpedo.

Edited May 24, 2011 by Assessor

[Marek Tucan]

The B-29 presented major intercept problem for the Japanese and would have for the Germans. Besides 29s also flew in unescorted mostly. B-36 would be even more like Douhet's and Trenchard's wet dream - very high, rather fast...

[Wobbly Head]

The Jews have only been mentioned peripherally and in conjunction with The Bomb, but suppose Hitler had had a fit of sanity and restrained his anti-Semitism? He could have had the talent and productivity of the Jewish population to contribute to the war effort. For example, I have little doubt that Germany would have had The Bomb first, since it was Jewish expats who developed the thing.

 

After the Night of Broken Glass http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristallnacht most Jews with any money or education left Germany so forget about any help from the Jews.

Edited May 25, 2011 by Wobbly Head

[Doug Kibbey]

The USN could fight its way through the North Sea then attack German coastal cities using large torpedoes tipped with A-bombs.

 

There was nothing like an abundant supply of weapons grade fissionable material during the war years and the immediate aftermath.

[Olof Larsson]

With only US resources, I'd think using Iceland to invade Norway, then bombing Germany from Scandinavia might work.

 

No need to invade Scandinavia as the B-29 could make the run from Iceland directly.

 

If the yanks would controll Scandinavia,

they could reach northern Germany with fighterbombers.

 

ETO was awfully small compared to the PTO after all.

[ickysdad]

I think the Akita raid involved B-29's carrying something like 14,000 lbs of bombs 2182 miles one way & back whilst the Palembang Raid in mid-1944 with an earlier ,shorter ranged model, involved carrying 10,000 lbs of bombs 1900+ miles and back(Ceylon to Palembang).

[JWB]

There was nothing like an abundant supply of weapons grade fissionable material during the war years and the immediate aftermath.

According to Hans Bethe the USA could build 4 Bombs per month.

 

After thinking about this subject for a few hours I came to the conclusion the Germans would not be able to stop a standard high altitude raid by B-29s. The Reich Air Ministry ordered the development of high altitude interceptors in response to the fielding of Allied fighters equipped with the Merlin 6X series of engines and the high altitude raids carried out by 8th AF. Under the scenario presented in this thread neither of those would have happened. The USA would have been at war against IJ only and the UK would have been defeated many months before the super Merlin was developed. The Nazi Luftwaffe would have spent its development money on ever more effective low altitude fighter bombers for use against the Reds. Germany would have had extreme difficulty of intercepting Superforts flying at 30,000 feet. Whatever fighters Germany had available would be dominated by Corsairs and Hellcats at medium and high altitudes.

[Leo Niehorster]

Typical TN thread: Starts off whether someone (the USSR) could do something (beat the Germans) without the assistance of the USA and others. Diverted into how the USA has to save the world (clobber the Germans) all alone.

 

Anyway, assuming the willingness of the USA to invest in immense projects like the A-bomb, and the corresponding long-range bombers (and advisedly long-range fighters?) without being at war with anyone, would there be a reason why the USA wouldn't implement the Lend Lease for the USSR program as well?

 

And anyway, my contention is that as of 7 December 1941 the USA would first beat the (Japanese) Evil Empire™. I just don't see the American People and Congress allowing anything else, no matter where Roosevelt's sympathies might lay.

[BansheeOne]

Fat Man and Little Boy both weighed in excess of four tonnes. Not withstanding you could shave some weight off by removing the aerodynamic bits, you're still roughly ten times the warhead weight of a Japanese type 93 26" torpedo.

 

The Soviets projected the nuclear-powered T-15 torpedo weighing 40 tons with 1,550 mm caliber and a length of 23.5 meters for just that role in the 50s. It would still have been bigger than a Japanese Kaiten manned suicide torpedo, mind. The November class submarines were originally conceived to be the carriers.

[sunday]

The B-29 presented major intercept problem for the Japanese and would have for the Germans. Besides 29s also flew in unescorted mostly. B-36 would be even more like Douhet's and Trenchard's wet dream - very high, rather fast...

 

Me-262s would not have been able to intercept B-29s and B-36s?

[RETAC21]

Me-262s would not have been able to intercept B-29s and B-36s?

 

Yep, but would they be developed if the Bf-109 and Fw-190 suffice vs the Soviets?

[Yama]

Yep, but would they be developed if the Bf-109 and Fw-190 suffice vs the Soviets?

 

Why not? They're needed as Schnellbombers

[Yama]

With only US resources, I'd think using Iceland to invade Norway, then bombing Germany from Scandinavia might work.

 

Scandinavia is pretty poor place to stage air offensive from. Airfields are few and mostly tiny, weather is good for air operations less than half of the year. Not to mention what kind of logistics effort would be needed to sustain major air offensive there. U-boats, anyone?

 

After thinking about this subject for a few hours I came to the conclusion the Germans would not be able to stop a standard high altitude raid by B-29s. The Reich Air Ministry ordered the development of high altitude interceptors in response to the fielding of Allied fighters equipped with the Merlin 6X series of engines and the high altitude raids carried out by 8th AF. Under the scenario presented in this thread neither of those would have happened. The USA would have been at war against IJ only and the UK would have been defeated many months before the super Merlin was developed. The Nazi Luftwaffe would have spent its development money on ever more effective low altitude fighter bombers for use against the Reds. Germany would have had extreme difficulty of intercepting Superforts flying at 30,000 feet. Whatever fighters Germany had available would be dominated by Corsairs and Hellcats at medium and high altitudes.

 

So basically, scenario is envisioned to go like this:

 

Germany, busy with fighting against UK & USSR, completely foregoes any investment on air defence and high altitude interceptors, not realising they may have to fight against USA at some point. USA, on the other hand, plans a war against Germany and invests on atomic bomb and high-altitude bombers. Then, when the bomb is ready, US suddenly goes to war against Germany, B-29 from Iceland (or whatever) flies the bomb on unsuspecting Germans, war over.

 

I'm sorry, but this scenario is completely nonsensical even for a WI history.

[Ken Estes]

....

 

In the long term this may be true. But in the shorter term the German war industry is diverted to defeating and then occupying vast swaths of Russia, then rebuilding communications in order to recover natural resources. The Red Army is pushed further and further east, but I doubt that it is ever defeated in the sense of the Soviet government capitulates to Germany and its army marches into the POW cages. What probably happens is that Stalin’s resources dwindle downwards to a point where only a fraction of the German army is required to then neutralize it. I’m wondering whether even 5 years in the Germans will have hit the ‘break even’ point – where resources extracted are greater than those committed to Russia’s conquest.

 

This corrresponds well the German planning and war aims, as far as they developed. After the defeat of the Red Army and collapse of the Moscow Govt, it was assumed the USSR would collapse into a 'rump Siberian republic' and the German frontier with it would be patrolled by a few panzer divisions W of the Urals, something reminiscent of the Byzantine Empire, I'd say. Norman Rich, Hitler's War Aims (2 vols), is the best source I have seen, in English.

[Ken Estes]

Typical TN thread: Starts off whether someone (the USSR) could do something (beat the Germans) without the assistance of the USA and others. Diverted into how the USA has to save the world (clobber the Germans) all alone.

 

Anyway, assuming the willingness of the USA to invest in immense projects like the A-bomb, and the corresponding long-range bombers (and advisedly long-range fighters?) without being at war with anyone, would there be a reason why the USA wouldn't implement the Lend Lease for the USSR program as well?

 

And anyway, my contention is that as of 7 December 1941 the USA would first beat the (Japanese) Evil Empire™. I just don't see the American People and Congress allowing anything else, no matter where Roosevelt's sympathies might lay.

Maybe we err in thinking of the two opponents, fighting in isolation against each other, winner take all, thus introducing a branch what-if where the victor is falling victim to rising superpower USAia.

 

Fleshing out the scenerio would have to determine what countries would provide aid to each, in terms of raw materials, even technical assistance. Even after a Peace of Amiens type arrangement, the UK/CW would not wish to see Germany emerge triumphant, might influence the US to support the USSR. A Japanese attack in the FE would inevitably cause the war to spread, introducing new alliances, likely renewing the UK vs. Germany, since it returns to wartime posture. Latin American countries might support Germany, given prewar diplomacy and economic relations. With Atlantic Neutrality in effect, this can continue for some time, especially if the Japanese choose against war. OTOH, German control of Fr, Neth colonies might provide leverage for war on the Japanese Northern Option, paid for by the output of the SE Asia resource area. Yet I don't see how France and Netherlands could relinquish their holdings without a general peace restoring some measure of autonomy in Europe. Too many of these anomalies remain.

[Martin M]

On the subject of when Lend Lease starts making a difference :

 

 

I think it is possible that the prospect of Lend Lease assistance had effect before anything had actually been delivered.

 

 

 

(If the Soviets have a commitment from the UK and the US that certain goods will be delivered, even if this will only begin 1942 and be fully effective in 1943 or 1944, they are able to plan accordingly and concentrate their industrial effort immediately.

 

For example they might forget about locomotive production totally and concentrate on tank production.

 

They could also use up essentual stocks and reserves.

 

(It is a bit of a va banque deal, of course, because they are not sure if the UK and US can actually deliver.)

 

 

Thus Lend Lease is actual assistance already in 1941 and 1942.

 

 

(just a thought of mine)

 

The professional historians will know if Soviet planning was influenced in that manner.