Situation in Egypt

[rmgill]

Assuming they see themselves as Egyptians first, and not by their religious convictions (which could go extreme, and if it does, we have another Bamyan buddhas situation).

 

Probably who the vandals were when they showed up to do their worst. However, the resounding "WTF!!?!?!" that came from Egypt after those Bamyan statues were destroyed was quite clear. I'm sure you'll always have some folks who want to destroy the statutes as encouraging Idolatry, but Egyptians know what side of their bread is buttered by the tourism trade.

[mnm]

Or they may run into this guy.

Edited January 31, 2011 by mnm

[RETAC21]

There are doubts about El Baradei being capable of carrying the street, which is not going to be excited with him, anyway. The Regime is trying to hold together by its bootstraps and trying to outlast the demostrations, IMO. Al Jazzeera has this interesting angle: "There are two schools of thought as far as the police are concerned: One is that many of them decided to join the protesters. The other is that the regime was saying to the people, 'You want to protest. We'll pull back the police and you feel what anarchy feels like'," our correspondent said.

Also this rather odd news: Oman uncovers 'UAE spy network'

[Jeff]

El Baradei is a bureaucrat and a lousy one at that. If he gets the top spot, it's merely as a figurehead acceptable to the West who can placate the Western news programs with pablum while the less savory characters secure their power. Eventually he'll get eaten by the alligator too.

[Sikkiyn]

If they carry off the Ark of the Covenant there are liable to be problems.

 

No worries, it isn't in Egypt anyways. Besides, if someone did find it, the last time it ended up in foreign hands, it didn't take long before they begged for Israel to take it back.

Not worried....I do have popcorn though...

[Rod]

How ironic: Ynetnews quoting Al-Jazeera is reporting that Egypt is requesting from Israel "crowd-control equipment".

 

If that is true what about all the Egyptian government's condemnation of heavy-handed use of such equipment against Arab demonstrators?

 

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4021742,00.html

 

Report: Egypt request crowd dispersion equipment from Israel

Published: 01.31.11, 13:57 / Israel News

 

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The Al Jazeera network reported Monday that Egypt appealed to Israel to send crowd dispersal equipment, including tear gas. Al Jazeera reported that two Israeli airplanes carrying the equipment landed in Cairo. (Elior Levy)

[Mike Steele]

El Baradei is a bureaucrat and a lousy one at that. If he gets the top spot, it's merely as a figurehead acceptable to the West who can placate the Western news programs with pablum while the less savory characters secure their power. Eventually he'll get eaten by the alligator too.

 

The other reservation about him is his tenure as head of IAEA. Reportedly he used his time to run interference for Iran's program.

[Rod]

Quick question o a scenario: Mubarak falls. A transition government led by El-Baradei takes over and in 2-3 years, the Muslim Brotherhood, through free and democratic elections take over. Then they announce that they will no longer abide by the 1979 Camp David Accords (Peace Accords) and begin moving military equipment to the Sinai close to the Israeli border. Not enough to indicate an invasion but enough to create tension (figure 20,000 troops plus equipment) plus close the Suez Canal to Israeli ships with the excuse that they will do so until Israel withdraws from all (so-called) Occupied Territories.

 

Will that mean:

a) The concept of land-for-peace is a joke and thus makes no sense for Israel to move forward with Syria and the Palestinians?

Can Israel get the Sinai Peninsula back (legally that is. The withdrawal of a territory gained in war was returned in exchange of something that is now taken back).

[Jeff]

The other reservation about him is his tenure as head of IAEA. Reportedly he used his time to run interference for Iran's program.

Indeed, that was part of the "lousy" description. He did a better job running interference for rogue nuclear nations rather than helping the UN control them.

[Gregory]

Quick question o a scenario: Mubarak falls. A transition government led by El-Baradei takes over and in 2-3 years, the Muslim Brotherhood, through free and democratic elections take over. Then they announce that they will no longer abide by the 1979 Camp David Accords (Peace Accords) and begin moving military equipment to the Sinai close to the Israeli border. Not enough to indicate an invasion but enough to create tension (figure 20,000 troops plus equipment) plus close the Suez Canal to Israeli ships with the excuse that they will do so until Israel withdraws from all (so-called) Occupied Territories.

 

Will that mean:

a) The concept of land-for-peace is a joke and thus makes no sense for Israel to move forward with Syria and the Palestinians?

Can Israel get the Sinai Peninsula back (legally that is. The withdrawal of a territory gained in war was returned in exchange of something that is now taken back).

 

1) Pretty much.

2) Legally there would be grounds to count the treaty as null and void, however realistically any attempt to reoccupy the Sinai would be treated as aggression by most of the UN's constituents (and possibly the Security Council). As such, we'd be pretty much to the state of affairs pre-1967.

[Archie Pellagio]

How ironic: Ynetnews quoting Al-Jazeera is reporting that Egypt is requesting from Israel "crowd-control equipment".

 

If that is true what about all the Egyptian government's condemnation of heavy-handed use of such equipment against Arab demonstrators?

 

The Al Jazeera network reported Monday that Egypt appealed to Israel to send crowd dispersal equipment, including tear gas. Al Jazeera reported that two Israeli airplanes carrying the equipment landed in Cairo. (Elior Levy)

 

I can see the headline now:

 

EGYPTIAN PROTESTERS SHOT BY ZIONIST WEAPONSBy Egyptian Police

[Marek Tucan]

I can see the headline now:

 

EGYPTIAN PROTESTERS SHOT BY ZIONIST WEAPONS WIELDED BY JUICE DISGUISED AS EGYPTIAN POLICE AND SUPPORTED BY SHARKS

 

 

FIFY

[Archie Pellagio]

Endgame.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12327418

 

Egypt's army has vowed it will not use force against the tens of thousands of people protesting for the removal of the regime of President Hosni Mubarak.

 

The BBC's Lyse Doucet describes the protests in Tahrir Square

Continue reading the main story

Egypt Unrest

 

* Egypt unrest Live

* Bowen: What if Mubarak goes?

* Q&A: Egypt protests

* In pictures: Protesters defiant

 

Egypt's army has vowed it will not use force against the tens of thousands of people protesting for the removal of the regime of President Hosni Mubarak.

 

It said it respected the "legitimate rights of the people".

 

The statement comes ahead of a massive march planned for Cairo on Tuesday and amid a call for a general strike.

 

Meanwhile, new Vice President Omar Suleiman said Mr Mubarak had asked him to open dialogue with all political parties on constitutional reform.

 

In an announcement on state television, he also said that new elections would be held in some districts where there was evidence of irregularities in last year's parliamentary poll.

 

Earlier, Mr Mubarak announced a cabinet reshuffle to try to head off the protests, replacing the widely despised Interior Minister Habib al-Adly.

Defying the curfew

 

In its statement, carried on Egyptian media, the military said: "To the great people of Egypt, your armed forces, acknowledging the legitimate rights of the people... have not and will not use force against the Egyptian people."

 

The BBC's Jon Leyne, in the Egyptian capital, says that if this announcement does represent the will of the senior army commanders, it is a devastating blow for President Mubarak.

 

Our correspondent says that to regain control of the streets, the president would need the use force, or at least the threat of force, from his army - and it now seems increasingly likely that his 30-year rule is drawing to a close.

 

Soldiers, tanks and other military vehicles are deployed in many areas of the country ahead of Tuesday's demonstration. The opposition have called for a million people to take to the streets of Cairo.

 

A similar mass march has been called for Alexandria.

 

Train services in Egypt have been halted between the curfew hours of 1500 and 0800 (1300 and 0600 GMT) and EgyptAir said it was cancelling all domestic and international flights between these hours, a move correspondents say may be intended to restrict attendance at demonstrations.

 

However, thousands of protesters are still camped out in Tahrir (Liberation) Square in central Cairo, defying the curfew.

 

The BBC's Jim Muir in Cairo says the military, who cordoned off the square with tanks, are letting people come and go.

 

Leaflets were being distributed to the crowds calling on the army to take the people's side and resist orders to move against them.

'Bluffing'

 

Earlier Mr Mubarak ordered new Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq to push through democratic reforms and create new jobs.

 

However, there were few major changes in the new cabinet line-up, with Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Defence Minister Gen Mohamed Hussein Tantawi - who also becomes deputy PM - both keeping their posts.

 

Correspondents say it is likely the demonstrators will only settle for Mr Mubarak's removal from office.

 

Mr Adly has been replaced by Mahmud Wagdi, an army general, while Samir Mohammad Radwan replaces Youssef Boutros-Ghali as finance minister. Mr Radwan said he had a "national mission at a very critical time".

 

The line-up confirms a purging of those behind Egypt's economic liberalisation and growth over the past few years, analysts say, and a move towards a more military cabinet.

 

A number of businessmen holding economic posts have been removed. Some Egyptians have resented the influence of the tycoons.

 

Concerns are growing about the economy after a week of protests.

 

World oil prices on Monday topped $100 a barrel amid fears of the ongoing unrest.

ew of the 50,000 protesters in Tahrir Square appeared appeased by the cabinet changes.

 

"We will stay until the coward leaves," the crowd chanted.

 

One demonstrator told the BBC: "This is not a new government. This is the same regime - this is the same bluff. [President Mubarak] has been bluffing us for 30 years."

 

Amid the protesters' call for a general strike, banks, schools, many businesses and the stock market were closed for a second day, with queues forming outside food stores.

 

Some police are back in parts of Cairo, having abandoned their posts on Friday.

 

Thousands of people also rallied in Alexandria, and there were sizeable demonstrations in Mansoura, Damanhour and Suez.

 

Israel has agreed to allow Egypt to deploy 800 more troops to the Sinai, the first such deployment since the 1979 peace deal between the two nations. The troops will ring the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

 

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu warned against the takeover of Egypt by "an organised Islamic group" as had happened in Iran.

 

The death toll from the protests so far is hard to assess but is thought to be at least 100.

International pressure

 

Many countries are evacuating citizens, leading to chaotic scenes at Cairo airport as air traffic becomes congested and flights are cancelled or delayed.

 

Tourism remains a vital sector in the Egyptian economy, accounting for about 5-6% of GDP.

 

International pressure is growing for some kind of resolution.

 

US President Barack Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have talked about the need for an "orderly transition" to a democratic future for Egypt.

 

EU foreign policy chief Baroness Ashton said on Monday that the "legitimate grievances" of Egyptians should be heeded.

 

"Their aspirations for a just, for a better future should be met with urgent, concrete and decisive answers and with real steps," she said.

 

The unrest in Egypt follows the uprising in Tunisia which ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali two weeks ago after 23 years in powe

[Marek Tucan]

Seems Mubarak is FUBAR'd...

[Archie Pellagio]

Now the question is can Egypt be the first sucessful Arab democracy?

 

So far the list is Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine & Algeria, democracy didn't bring forth an era of Milk & Honey to any of them.

[Gregory]

Now the question is can Egypt be the first sucessful Arab democracy?

 

So far the list is Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine & Algeria, democracy didn't bring forth an era of Milk & Honey™ to any of them.

 

Doubt it. Cleptocratic oligarchy seems to be the best Arabs can manage at this point.

[Jeff]

however realistically any attempt to reoccupy the Sinai would be treated as aggression by most of the UN's constituents (and possibly the Security Council).

And I'm sure that would make the Muslim Brotherhood go all wobbly-kneed.

 

Actually, given the UN's attitude towards Israel, I think they might cheer if the Sinai is remilitarized.

[Cyber_Ghost]

Quick question o a scenario: Mubarak falls. A transition government led by El-Baradei takes over and in 2-3 years, the Muslim Brotherhood, through free and democratic elections take over. Then they announce that they will no longer abide by the 1979 Camp David Accords (Peace Accords) and begin moving military equipment to the Sinai close to the Israeli border. Not enough to indicate an invasion but enough to create tension (figure 20,000 troops plus equipment) plus close the Suez Canal to Israeli ships with the excuse that they will do so until Israel withdraws from all (so-called) Occupied Territories.

 

Will that mean:

a) The concept of land-for-peace is a joke and thus makes no sense for Israel to move forward with Syria and the Palestinians?

Can Israel get the Sinai Peninsula back (legally that is. The withdrawal of a territory gained in war was returned in exchange of something that is now taken back).

A)If this happenes, I guess that it means no Golans for Syria, and no more than 60%-70% of the west bank to the Palis, simply because we don't want to rule them.

B)Legaly, Sinai is Egyptian territory because it was never annexed by Israel, it's de-militarization is not a part of the peace treaty, but rather the security appendix to the treaty. If Egypt decides to re-militarize the Sinai then it is not a violation of the treaty. However, a significant increase of forces in Sinai may still be interperted by us as giving us a casus belli, at this point it's up to the politicos to decide what to do. A significant Egyptian military presence in Sinai will at the very least force us to put more divisions on the border at a higher readiness state, meaning atleast one more regular division. My opinion is that in such a case the US will probably end up stationing forces in Israel (division sized?)to show it's commitment to Israel's security, there was once a sugestion by Collin Powell (IIRC in 1992) to station a regiment sized force on the Golans incase we decide to cede them to Syria.

[Archie Pellagio]

The idea of Egypt with or without a Muslim Brotherhood government trying to re-enact 1973 is just masturbatory fodder for military forums and adolescent year old Jewish boys in the diaspora.

 

It might be fun to see if Egypt would take back Gaza from the Palestinians/Israel, make it their problem.

Very quickly you would see a scenario where Hamas was forced to chose between a it's Takfiri roots and it's modern Iranian backers.

[swerve]

B)Legaly, Sinai is Egyptian territory because it was never annexed by Israel,

.

Yes, correct. Anyone who read what I wrote before please ignore it. I had a temporary mental aberration & read 'Gaza' where 'Sinai' was written.

Edited February 1, 2011 by swerve

[Gregory]

And I'm sure that would make the Muslim Brotherhood go all wobbly-kneed.

 

Actually, given the UN's attitude towards Israel, I think they might cheer if the Sinai is remilitarized.

 

Actually - I did mean "reoccupy by Israel". I'm sure Egyptian forces in Sinai would be greeted by a collective shrug.

[Cyber_Ghost]

They never had to annex it, they see it as their, Israel has acknowledged it, as did any other country so basicaly it's their. Gaza on the other hand... I don't think any sane person would want to control this piece of land.

 

As far as Luke's post, I agree with it only partially, I can see a number of situations that could escalate to an all out shooting war with Egypt, bear in mind that as Moshe Dayan has once put it, "We can never totally defeat the arabs, the arabs on the other hand can allways hope that in the next round they will defeat Israel".

[swerve]

Can Israel get the Sinai Peninsula back (legally that is. The withdrawal of a territory gained in war was returned in exchange of something that is now taken back).

No. It was never legally Israeli territory, & Israel has no rights over it. The withdrawal was a pragmatic move, & has served its purpose. Israel has had over 30 years of peace on that border. Those who made the treaty are dead, & new generations now live in both countries.

 

Israel can act legally only to defend itself, or another state which requests help. What constitutes legitimate self-defence is, of course, a matter of opinion.

[swerve]

They never had to annex it, they see it as their, Israel has acknowledged it, as did any other country so basicaly it's their. Gaza on the other hand... I don't think any sane person would want to control this piece of land.

Doh! Slip of the brain. You wrote Sinai, I thought Gaza. Sorry, what I wrote was nonsense, & I must go back & change it. You were right first time.

 

Legally, Sinai was always (well, since 1906 when the Ottomans gave in to British pressure) part of Egypt - unlike Gaza.

Edited February 1, 2011 by swerve

[Rod]

Another important fact in case the Muslim Brotherhood decides to run in the elections and wins a plurality of the votes to control Egypt's Congress/Assembly and even the Presidency: Egypt is a poor country dependent on easy credit terms for US food exports, Western tourism, Suez Canal traffic and remittances from abroad. Egypt is adding about 1 million new mouths to feed every 9 months and they do not have significant oil reserves to make them as independent economicaly as Iran.

 

If tourism dries up, Suez traffic is reduced (due to higher insurance cost) and the U.S. cuts any export funding for grains sales as well as removing the tariff-free status that it extended to Egypt in many products, they would not be able to afford the hard currency to feed themselves let alone maintain their massive Armed forces (thanks to another $1.3 billion annually from the U.S.) that have over 220 F-16s, 1,000 M1-A1 Abramas and dozens of modern warships such as Knox frigates.