TSJ Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 True. Most of my Iraqi and Turkish friends self-selected to be moderate and educated. So I guess I have a bias as well. But since there really isn't anything anything "we" can do about it but to maintain the hypocritical status quo. We have to roll the dice and hope for the best. But I still think the odds are in the favor of a favorable outcome vs. the place going sideways for no good reason.... and de Lesseps statue is in pieces and laying on its side.
Soren Ras Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 our DoS people are no good at getting favorable outcomes anyways and they really love to support dictators, which comes from being control freaks IMO. Being a bureaucracy they are heavily biased towards stability at nearly any cost. Stability means predictability and less risk of providing career-ending advice. Besides, you don't have to refresh your rolodex all the time and your expertise and knowledge has a longer shelf-life. Figuring out who is who and where things are going in a constantly fluctuating environment is hard and risky work and quite to be avoided if at all possible. The rest follows naturally from this basic outlook. --Soren
Archie Pellagio Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 Knowing who's-who-in-the-zoo is far harder in democracies than dictatorships where the power struggles and shifting sands happen opaquely at best and behind closed doors.
Paul in Qatar Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 One of my Israeli friends claims the IDF is moving forces southward "in case" (or some damn thing). I discount it. He tends to panic.
redwolf Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 One of my Israeli friends claims the IDF is moving forces southward "in case" (or some damn thing). I discount it. He tends to panic. Egypt security forces were to a certain extent keeping extremists from entering Israel. Right now it seems that Egypt police just stays home. The civilian clothes state security thugs (I think that's the official designation) seem to exclusively work on vandalizing to blame it on protesters for days now. Some bolstering of border security on part of Israel seems in order. I just hope we don't regret giving/allowtobuilt Egypt a 1000 or so M1 Abrams. A new regime in Egypt based on the Muslim Brotherhood (the guys who killed Sadat and who are the original base of Hamas) might find some use for them.
Guest JamesG123 Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 Speaking of, just saw video of M1s on the move roadmarching somewhere.
Jeff Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 If El Baradei somehow becomes the president, he'll be a figurehead for someone else with the power if his tenure at the IAEA is any indication.
urbanoid Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 One of my Israeli friends claims the IDF is moving forces southward "in case" (or some damn thing). I discount it. He tends to panic. This move is rather easy to understand. It's been reported that the Egyptian-Gazan border is no longer secure and Hamas is already fighting the Egyptian forces in the Sinai, probably encouraged to do so by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian government decided to move some armored units to solve the problem there.
JOE BRENNAN Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 (edited) How do you know what most Egyptians want is a "true and free Egyptian democracy". I hope that is the case (and so does Barry Rubin, but how do you know?IMO most of them almost surely do want that in theory, I believe that's a mainly universal human desire, but actually achieving it is another matter, because it's also pretty universal to want your own way. Working democracy requires a lot more than wanting one. That said the dice are rolling already on serious regime change there, not even up to us to decide to roll them or not. I see almost no chance the Egyptian public is going to accept anything but a transition to real elections. And I think it's more likely than not the near term results of that won't be so bad (for the US). Medium and longer term though there will be a real threat of Islamist extremists undermining that new system, and there will probably be real (though limited) options and decisions for the US: who to back, and how, to try to hold off the worst case. But inserting ourselves now to preserve 'the Mubarak regime without Mubarak', as Rubin seems to imply, closest he comes to making any real point, is hopeless. It would fail in Egypt and create a huge backlash against us far beyond Egypt. Rubin writes from an Israeli POV (I'm passingly familiar with his writing previously, I don't know whether he's an Israeli citizen or American or both, but in any case seems to be one of those people who truly believe US and Israeli interests are identical). And a new regime in Egypt more attuned to the public will, whether good for Egyptians or not, is obviously going to be more hostile to Israel than Mubarak's regime or some non-Mubarak status quo regime Rubin dreams of preserving, because the Egyptian public doesn't like Israel. But total pessimism might be shortsighted even from a strictly Israeli POV, and again, harping on how bad it will be tends to imply there's something the US could do to maintain the status quo in Egypt, and there isn't. Joe Edited January 30, 2011 by JOE BRENNAN
Ivanhoe Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 Bad news; http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001019.html I asked Big Pharaoh what he thought would happen if Egypt held a legitimate free and fair election instead of this bullshit staged by Mubarak. “The Muslim Brotherhood would win,” he said. “They would beat Mubarak and the liberals.” I was afraid he was going to say that. “I’ve had this theory for a while now,” I said. “It looks like some, if not most, Middle East countries are going to have to live under an Islamic state for a while and get it out of their system.” --- Good news; http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4021125,00.html "The attitude towards us as Israelis and tourist is very friendly. Actually, they're overly nice compared to my previous visits in Egypt. The Egyptians want to explain themselves, to tell everyone about their struggle. They speak Arabic over here so it's easy to communicate with them. On Friday we went right past the demonstrations on our way back from the pyramids, and people helped us get though the crowd." ------- Some not-quite-live tweets can be found here; Here is his blog; http://www.sandmonkey.org/
Kenneth P. Katz Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 He was born here, lived there, is here for some sort of short-term gig. Presumably a dual citizen, but I don't know for sure. In general, I think that the United States has close to zero influence on how things work out in Egypt. Rubin writes from an Israeli POV (I'm passingly familiar with his writing previously, I don't know whether he's an Israeli citizen or American or both, but in any case seems to be one of those people who truly believe US and Israeli interests are identical).
swerve Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 El Baradei is giving (or trying to give) a speech in Cairo. Crowd looks so thick it looks difficult to get to the front.That house arrest didn't last long.
Jeff Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 That house arrest didn't last long.Indeed, he's doing live news interviews as well.
Guest JamesG123 Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 The Egyptian police and army get a big fail for their crowd control can civil security function. The police have apparently turned to banditry, and the army is hanging out giving tank rides to demonstrators. Its amusing until you see the burning buildings and hear the body counts.
crazyinsane105 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Posted January 31, 2011 The Egyptian police and army get a big fail for their crowd control can civil security function. The police have apparently turned to banditry, and the army is hanging out giving tank rides to demonstrators. Its amusing until you see the burning buildings and hear the body counts. The police were quite well known for their brutality more than their policing. After most of the police stations were burned to the ground, most officers probably decided it just wasn't worth it and left. The Army is trained for war, not conducting police patrols. I believe it echoes the same situation the Americans faced in Iraq a few weeks after the fall of Saddam. They've done a good job of securing most other government buildings and historical sites, and the amount of looting is nothing compared to what was seen in Iraq.
Ivanhoe Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.michaelyon-online.com/egypt-eruption.htm CNN is reporting that neighborhoods are forming their own local "militias" to deal with looters.
BillB Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, thats what I thought. Supposedly the police for the most part seem to have hightailed it. Even the traffic police at junctions have disappeared, and the job being fulfilled by local volunteers. It will be interesting to see what relations will be like with Iran if El Baradei becomes president. He has been quite critical of assertions the US or Israel should bomb Iran, but I dont get the impression he has a lot of time for the Iranian regime either .His family apparently have a rep for speaking up for human rights all the way back to the time of Nasser.Being swept to power on the back of a revolution is only going to make things more awkward. Especially as he is being endorsed by the Moslem Brotherhood, according to a report I heard last night. BillB
swerve Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 The Army is trained for war, not conducting police patrols. I believe it echoes the same situation the Americans faced in Iraq a few weeks after the fall of Saddam. They've done a good job of securing most other government buildings and historical sites, and the amount of looting is nothing compared to what was seen in Iraq.The director of the government antiquities department (& thus the magnificent Egyptian Museum) told the BBC that a few rioters had got in, but didn't do much damage (though still deeply to be regretted) before being expelled. Someone in the army thought of sending troops to protect the museum, & they turned up while the museum guards, & demonstrators who were appalled by the vandalism, were struggling with the wreckers. Demonstrators & soldiers then organised a joint defence of the museum against thieves & wreckers. The director & some of the staff have been staying on the premises, by the sound of it.
T19 Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Especially as he is being endorsed by the Moslem Brotherhood, according to a report I heard last night. BillB It now gives a face to the protest... allows said face to tell the crowds to go home he is in negotiations with the Govt and Army and all is good. Up to now, there has been nobody for the gov't to talk to. Lets hope things can peacefully move on. Good to see Egyptians from both sides banding together to protect their common heritage. I think that bodes well
rmgill Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 The director of the government antiquities department (& thus the magnificent Egyptian Museum) told the BBC that a few rioters had got in, but didn't do much damage (though still deeply to be regretted) before being expelled. Someone in the army thought of sending troops to protect the museum, & they turned up while the museum guards, & demonstrators who were appalled by the vandalism, were struggling with the wreckers. Demonstrators & soldiers then organised a joint defence of the museum against thieves & wreckers. The director & some of the staff have been staying on the premises, by the sound of it. If there's one thing Egyptians know, their heritage means something to them and the rest of the world. Protecting that is a good thing.
Corinthian Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 If there's one thing Egyptians know, their heritage means something to them and the rest of the world. Protecting that is a good thing. Assuming they see themselves as Egyptians first, and not by their religious convictions (which could go extreme, and if it does, we have another Bamyan buddhas situation).
BansheeOne Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Omar Sharif has spoken out in support of the protesters. Now Mubarak is truely screwed.
Paul in Qatar Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 The with the Egyptian wife and apartment says she is fine. Phones are back up and she says the regular police are back on the streets. That high school buddy who is now an Israeli is serious. He honestly thinks the Egyptians are going to invade. He started off a paragraph with something like "After all it is well-know Obama has secret sympathies..." I ought not to be mad. The guy really, honestly believes this stuff. But figure he is my age, 52. He has moved to Israel and presumably mastered the language. He has seen something of the world and is no dummy. How can he really buy into this line? Like I said, I ought not to let it upset me. I suppose to an Italian, how all this relates to Italy is central. Still, an invasion! From Egypt! When I took exception to him, he started ranting about Daniel Pearl of all people. Like I said, I need to chill.
Paul in Qatar Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 (Every time I hear this story, I imagine a couple of hundred looters carrying off a nine-meter-tall basalt cat like something out of The Ten Commandments.
Guest JamesG123 Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 I wouldn't worry about an invasion, but the next time the IDF gets heavy handed with the Palestinians or has another of its periodic PR black eyes, I expect a post-Mubarak Egypt to be less ambivalent in its reactions.
Recommended Posts