XXJ - Chinese fifth generation fighter programme

[Nobu]

The big difference between the Chinese and the West is that their R&D cycle is both rapid and relentless.

Even if this turns ou to be a piece of crap in a flashy package, they will have their follow on fighter in production in a few years as well.

 

We'll still be relying on a handful of F22's and legacy F15/16/18's for decades to come.

All the more reason why the sale of 120-160 F-22s to Japan plus local production rights makes good military sense.

 

With Japan's current U.S. debt holdings hovering around the equivalent of China's, it makes good economic sense as well.

[chino]

Those whom have purchased Chinese-made firearms in the US perhaps can give us an insight.

 

IMO, the general rule of the export quality better than the military-issue applies.

[Corinthian]

Those whom have purchased Chinese-made firearms in the US perhaps can give us an insight.

 

IMO, the general rule of the export quality better than the military-issue applies.

 

I dunno. Maybe the Chinese in the PRC work in a different way. It'd make sense: mass produce "junk" for exports knowing there'll be ready buyers in foreign markets looking for a cheap product, while the PLA orders the factories to produce the Best Stuff and if any fail quality controls, heads roll (literally).

[EchoFiveMike]

R&D is vastly simpler when you pirate the pioneering work.

 

Chinese machine tools are generally shit. Chinese auto parts, can be OK, but by the time you do the QC, you could have just bought the good stuff in the 1st place, unless you have the hardware and know how in-house and massively undervalue your time. S/F....Ken M

[tankerwanabe]

All the more reason why the sale of 120-160 F-22s to Japan plus local production rights makes good military sense.

 

With Japan's current U.S. debt holdings hovering around the equivalent of China's, it makes good economic sense as well.

 

I could see the PRC stealth-fighter warranting the sale of the F22 to Japan. I doubt if the US would agree to transfer production, but I could see the US allowing assembly.

[Yalmuk]

In other forums people claim that engines are "WS-10G" models. Using those engines would probably keep cost down, and still give quite good perfomance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_WS-10#Variants

 

TVC engines are a lot more expensive and need more maintaining, right?

[chino]

Two rival joint-ventures make VW cars in China - one in SH, the other in Changchun.

 

They often fight for the rights to produce the new VW designs.

 

The one in Changchun - called First Auto - builds to higher quality which makes Germany VW favour them by granting them the rights to build the more popular new models.

 

One such model is the Sagitar (new Jetta elsewhere). The marketers claim (during a briefing to their advertising agency), that they use 80% imported Japanese steel in making the car body. Because the huge China steel industry produces steel of low quality.

 

So, if a local car maker tells you that Chinese steel is crap, go figure about the quality of locally-made products.

 

So how, for example, an engine or a rifle made with local steel parts, will be durable?

 

Unless, of course, the PLA specifies imported steel? I doubt it.

 

If the steel is bad... I would figure that all other Chinese materials like aluminum, brass, plastic etc will be of questionable quality.

 

The plastic legs of the portable heaters I bought are all light and brittle as hell and will be the first parts to break, rendering the rest of the thing useless even if they continue working.

 

Heck even the milk is bad.

Edited January 17, 2011 by chino

[Guest JamesG123]

You are presuming that Chinese steel producers only make one quality of steel. Which is not true.

 

You are presuming that the PLA can not specify quality levels from domestic makers. Which is very doubtful.

[KV7]

You are presuming that Chinese steel producers only make one quality of steel. Which is not true.

 

You are presuming that the PLA can not specify quality levels from domestic makers. Which is very doubtful.

 

 

Correct, Chinese manufacturing is incredibly uneven in sophistication and quality. The best plants are literally world class, some with some real leads in applied technology and scale over U.S and German plants, whilst the worst are under-capitalized low tech assembly plants with no real quality management.

 

In a large economy with plentiful supply of relatively cheap labor, but with real economies of scale, and dedicated planning and support for 'leapfrog technologies' both low quality and cutting edge production can both be profitable (and rational to pursue) at the same time.

 

Regarding steel production, a very large quantity of Chinese steel ends up being turned into rebar, rhs and angle for the construction industry, in which quality is not paramount, but even here most plants are very modern, being less than 15 years old. There are in addition a smaller number of very good, modern plants producing high performance steel alloys, stainless etc, and non ferrous alloys. Again, in a very large industry with very varied customer demands, there will naturally be a large differential in quality and sophistication.

 

As an aside, many of the older steel plants with low efficiency and capacity are being forcibly closed to reach the state mandated GHG reduction target, to remove overcapacity, and cool resource and labor demand.

[chino]

You are presuming that Chinese steel producers only make one quality of steel. Which is not true.

 

You are presuming that the PLA can not specify quality levels from domestic makers. Which is very doubtful.

 

I have already quoted the source of that information and I was IN that briefing. First Auto Changchun makes not only VW, Audi etc but also the car that Chinese Premiers ride in to inspect the troops on National Day.

 

EDIT:

It's easy to present a clever retort or challenge but unless you can put some credibility behind it, it is very hard to believe you know what you are talking about.

 

If what you claim is true, then that executive must be lying, or top quality Chinese steel that you claim exist, must be more expensive than importing Japanese steel of similar quality.

 

I won't even go into claims made by US that imported Chinese steel is crap because, you know, the US could also be lying.

Edited January 16, 2011 by chino

[chino]

Correct, Chinese manufacturing is incredibly uneven in sophistication and quality. The best plants are literally world class, some with some real leads in applied technology and scale over U.S and German plants, whilst the worst are under-capitalized low tech assembly plants with no real quality management.

 

In a large economy with plentiful supply of relatively cheap labor, but with real economies of scale, and dedicated planning and support for 'leapfrog technologies' both low quality and cutting edge production can both be profitable (and rational to pursue) at the same time.

 

Regarding steel production, a very large quantity of Chinese steel ends up being turned into rebar, rhs and angle for the construction industry, in which quality is not paramount, but even here most plants are very modern, being less than 15 years old. There are in addition a smaller number of very good, modern plants producing high performance steel alloys, stainless etc, and non ferrous alloys. Again, in a very large industry with very varied customer demands, there will naturally be a large differential in quality and sophistication.

 

As an aside, many of the older steel plants with low efficiency and capacity are being forcibly closed to reach the state mandated GHG reduction target, to remove overcapacity, and cool resource and labor demand.

 

Bad quality, in China, is often not the result of "new" vs "old" machinery, but one of attitude.

[TRYTRY]

Bad quality, in China, is often not the result of "new" vs "old" machinery, but one of attitude.

I don't think so. Bad quality owe to bad market. I know the alloy of china stainless steel is controlled at low limit. For example, the Cr of 316L is from 16-18, the china 316l is 16.0-16.1.

[KV7]

I don't think so. Bad quality owe to bad market. I know the alloy of china stainless steel is controlled at low limit. For example, the Cr of 316L is from 16-18, the china 316l is 16.0-16.1.

 

Some of that is a legacy of poor expectations on the part of customers, especially foreign customers. For example, I know of some very good firms that produce top notch products at an internationally competitive price, but complain that their customers want a cheaper product- and usually go elsewhere in China for it. The rigors of cut-throat price competition against other Chinese firms often drives short cuts and sloppy work. However, as labor and other costs go up as the Chinese economy grows, these same manufacturers, especially in the south-east that can no longer compete on cost grounds, are forced with a choice- either step up into the high quality segment, relocate to the west etc, or close down. Additionally, some of the Taiwanese firms that have shifted some of their operations to the mainland have brought a reputation and culture of high quality products, and have sought to maintain that standard and even exceed it as they have relocated. These forces add up to the point where a 'tipping point' is reached and the prison of price competition can be transcended, as the industry in question or a segment of it establishes a reputation for quality and ability to compete on that basis against inferior domestic producers.

 

In 15 years time, China will be like a massive South Korea, and India will look more like what China does now.

[Guest JamesG123]

It's easy to present a clever retort or challenge but unless you can put some credibility behind it, it is very hard to believe you know what you are talking about.

 

If what you claim is true, then that executive must be lying, or top quality Chinese steel that you claim exist, must be more expensive than importing Japanese steel of similar quality.

 

I won't even go into claims made by US that imported Chinese steel is crap because, you know, the US could also be lying.

 

The other replies pretty much hit the technical reasons why you are incorrect. There are always offsets and extenuating circumstances in international trade, esp. when dealing with Chinese new capitalists. In your example, are they using Japanese materials because they have a quid pro quo with that Kiatsu for other products? Do they have a license agreement with them for the auto technology? Did it simply placate the fussy Germans to use "Japanese steel"?

 

Yes a lot of Chinese steel, especially for export is crap. But it is crap because they can get away with it, because its just good enough for the application and/or the buyer has diminished expectations etc, and they have learned well the capitalist mantra of minimizing costs and maximizing return.

 

But that does not mean that they can not produce higher quality materials, otherwise you would not have precision electronics manufacturing there, which is an order of magnitude more complex and particular form a quality perspective.

[chino]

At no point did I say China was technically incapable of producing top quality steel, then, now or the future.

 

I put the problem to one of attitude, as you can see in my other post.

 

I was quoting a car manufacturing executive, who said that "China steel is not up to standard".

 

By simple logic, you can deduct from this statement that China is not producing top quality steel, so First Auto had to source import steel, increasing cost-per-unit.

 

You cannot make so many assumptions and put words into people's mouth unless you have solid proof.

 

China may make top quality steel in the future. But we were not talking about the future.

Edited January 16, 2011 by chino

[chino]

I don't think so. Bad quality owe to bad market. I know the alloy of china stainless steel is controlled at low limit. For example, the Cr of 316L is from 16-18, the china 316l is 16.0-16.1.

 

You have just reinforced in different words, my point that the bad quality in China is a problem of attitude.

 

When the authorities ask for a low quality, of course no one is going to produce above that requirement.

Edited January 16, 2011 by chino

[Guest JamesG123]

At no point did I say China was technically incapable of producing top quality steel, then, now or the future.

 

I am tired of pointing you the flaw in your logic. If you want to persist in your opinion. Have fun.

[Yama]

So how, for example, an engine or a rifle made with local steel parts, will be durable?

 

What I've read, Norinco firearms are generally reputed to have been made of high quality steels (though wooden & plastic parts are awful). This makes them popular with some DIY folks.

 

Story is that Chinese used recycled Japanese railroad tracks for their guns. But that may just be an urban legend.

[EchoFiveMike]

Some of the Norinco stuff is made of very hard steels because retooling costs are far lower.

 

When it comes to engine parts, Chinese stuff is always middle tier, at best. The steel and forging work can be acceptable, but the machining and finish work is often shit. There's a thriving segment taking Chinese rough parts and finishing them in CONUS. S/F.....Ken M

[mnm]

A part of the equipment in my company is Komatsu (J.), another part is Hyundai (SK). The notebook I'm writing from is an LG (SK), so is my air-conditioner. The modem I'm using for my Vodaphone connection is a Huawey (PRC) already. How long will they take to catch up?

[Fritz]

My company is a contract electronics designer & manufacturer. Made in USA? More like designed & assembled in USA, but virtually all parts come from China. We also order our circuit boards there. Only some of the most advanced components come from other places (Japan, Germany etc).

 

And we survive only because we do niche stuff. Practically all consumer electronics is now made in China.

[AdmiralB]

My uncle is a metallurgist of some renown in the oil wellhead field. His comments to me the last time we spoke of Chinese manufacturing mirror my experiences with electronics - you will get what you are willing to pay for.

 

VW is probably trying to shift blame away from their own pfennig-pinching.

[Fritz]

pfennig

 

That would be eurocent nowadays

[JOE BRENNAN]

Practically all consumer electronics is now made in China.

There was an article in WSJ recently about content of an iphone. It's 'made in China' per trade stats, but they found around 6% of the value originates there. Besides all the non-manufacturing elements of the value, in that case most of the actual components come from other countries through China. I'm sure what you say is true in other cases though.

 

As far as quality of Chinese stuff and comparing it to Japan or Korea, it's a lot bigger (especially than Korea) so I doubt even 10 or 20 years from now China will move as uniformly up the 'value scale' as say Korea has. But it will move. And as somebody else said, even now many Chinese plants are world class in physical equipment. I agree it's a matter of attitude, and experience, even when you're operating the best equipment, but attitudes also change and experience is gained. When I worked in Korea and Japan in the shipbuilding biz in the 1980's, Korean plant was modern but attitudes toward quality (and safety, not unimportant if you were a foreigner actually crawling around the ships) lagged the Japanese seriously; but it changed. Ironically the Japanese shipbuilding industry now hangs on in certain sectors that are *less* upscale than those the Koreans dominate more. But anyway in China you do still have State Owned Enterprises operating in some cases obsolete and inefficient plant (like in steel in some cases). It is really kidding oneself to think that's the future of Chinese competition. China invests an enormous % of GDP. Many say it's even too much to avoid serious boom/busts from overcapacity along the way, but in any case the parts of Chinese industry which are physically incapable of producing quality goods are going to fade away.

 

Joe

Edited January 16, 2011 by JOE BRENNAN

[TRYTRY]

What I've read, Norinco firearms are generally reputed to have been made of high quality steels (though wooden & plastic parts are awful). This makes them popular with some DIY folks.

 

Story is that Chinese used recycled Japanese railroad tracks for their guns. But that may just be an urban legend.

The story is wrong. These steel is different in alloy compose.