Korean artillery exchange.

[Marcello]

And we have 3/4ths of our force training or hanging out at the house. All of which could be called up and mobilized within 24 hrs. and be in theater within 2 weeks. Plus the NG, and assorted Reserves that could be called up and be there in one to six months, depending on where they were in the deployment cycle. Yeah, it would suck, and the folks already deployed would stay there indefinitely, but we could commit a Corp to Korea if we had to.

 

That part is true. The initial part of the war would be a short, violent fight, where either the DPRK gave it their best shot but fell on their faces and collapsed, or they pushed the ROK forces back and we get to replay Inchon again.

 

Its not their territory. The USN would be operating comfortably from SK or international waters. This is not 1950. The Chinese aren't going to go to war with the US/West over their dim-witted buddy. They have much too much invested and at stake. They may provide aid and comfort, and negotiate on the North's behalf. But the PLA coming in again isn't in the cards. It would be stupid, and the Chinese aren't stupid.

 

If what I have read is correct the may have redefined success as seizing Seoul as bargaining chip, rather than reunification and going all the way down to Pusan.

Not that it would become so much more likely to have success, but at least they are keeping their planning in vague contact with reality. I would guess US ground troops (aside from those already there and some quick reaction forces) would come in time to play only for the push to the north, if it comes to that. However I would not comfortably bet the farm on the chinese not lifting a finger if the americans drive all the way to the Yalu. It may be "stupid" but the chinese may have an other point of view, certainly wars have started for more stupid reasons.

 

You never know. What Pong Yang is doing now is irrational, and that is hard to predict, and that means you don't know what kind of response you are going to get to your own responses or actions against them. Its like trying to negotiate with a whacko holding a gun to his own head.

 

Not that irrational actually. Last time I checked the north korean èlite is still in power instead of having been swept away by some war/revolution; considered that almost everyone thought they were finished fifteen years ago it has not worked out too bad for Kim and his immediate underlings.

[Guest JamesG123]

However I would not comfortably bet the farm on the chinese not lifting a finger if the americans drive all the way to the Yalu. It may be "stupid" but the chinese may have an other point of view, certainly wars have started for more stupid reasons.

 

But you are not considering international trade which is the Chinese's bread AND butter. They are not going to jeopardize that, no matter what happens in Korea. They might sink any kind of UN resolution to put N. Korea out of everyone's misery, but it would be totally counter to the PRC's interests in intervening in Korea, UNLESS it were as a part of a UN force to pacify and unify Korea. Were we and the Chinese wise, that would be a mutually beneficial arrangement. We get a big manpower boost, a second front, and don't have to worry about a "Yellow Horde" from the North. The Chinese would get a hand in the reconstruction/rehabilitation of the Korean peninsula. The Wikileaks memos kind of hint that something like that is (was) being worked out for when Kim and Co.'s time finally runs out.

 

Not that irrational actually.

 

Ok, sociopathic then.

[ScottBrim]

So you're saying a Republican congress is going to cut the military in favor of safety net?

 

Precisely ... That's just what the Republicans will do .... And the reason is that if they cut entitlements and the social safety net, the entitlements constituencies -- retiring baby boomers and the AARP generation -- will rise up just as the Tea Partiers did when they sent the Democrats packing in 2010 and will send the Republicans packing on the next go-around.

Edited December 25, 2010 by ScottBrim

[Paul in Qatar]

I suppose we shall see.