Korean artillery exchange.

[JOE BRENNAN]

AOL news showed a picture of some ROK troops around what appeared to be the turret of an ADATS launcher, and identified it as an anti-aircraft missile launcher.

I assume it was an ROK K-SAM or 'Cheonma', basically a license built Crotale NG, somewhat resembles but isn't related to ADATS.

 

 

Joe

[nigelfe]

Given that prox fuze HoB is around 10 metres then the ground impact is only a very few metres further. There are several reasons for missing, first the target loc was wrong, it depends on whether they had the target listed and fixed from satellite imagery (which would probably be accurate) or as located by CB radar, here the CEP could well be 75 - 150 metres. Next is accuracy, I think K9 has a MV radar fitted as standard so I would expect MVs to be correct. Then there is meteor, this could be a problem, the guns are on an island and the source of met data could be some way off and the off-shore conditions could be a bit different to those over the land where the soundings were taken. K9 has a 52 cal barrel, I've got the impression from remarks I've heard about the NL PzH2000 in Afg that there may be a significant cold gun effect with 52 cal barrels, although it could also depend on metallurgical and manufacturing details. However, cold gun effect could easily put the opening couple of rds a couple of hundred metres too far. Another possible factor is barrel memory, but from what little I know of the circumstances I'd assume this would reduce MV and hence range. Either way the Solution is to fire more rds , K9 kicks out about 8 per minute, treat the first couple as warmers.

 

Given that the NK arty is going to move immediately after firing then then there is no prospect of arty or air getting anywhere near them, they'll be long gone by the time any a/c have taken off. Arty might get lucky if they responded instantly, perhaps catching something pulling out.

 

Current estimates are several trillion bucks for reunification, and the question is who pays. This is vastly more than German reunification because there's more people and they are further behind than E Germany. There's also the problem of the 1 million strong army, given to total US stuff up in Iraq over demobilising an army this could be a difficult challnge.

Edited December 4, 2010 by nigelfe

[ShotMagnet]

I assume it was an ROK K-SAM or 'Cheonma', basically a license built Crotale NG, somewhat resembles but isn't related to ADATS.

Joe

 

Thanks, Joe.

 

BTW, how did you get your machine to translate The Korean Daily Times into Hangul? All I got was unicode when I clicked on the link.

 

 

Shot

Edited December 4, 2010 by ShotMagnet

[JOE BRENNAN]

BTW, how did you get your machine to translate The Korean Daily Times into Hangul? All I got was unicode when I clicked on the link.

Assuming you are using Internet Explorer, you might have to click view>encoding>more>Korean. Usually it works automatically for me, I don't know why, but occasionally when I pull up non-Latin character pages it's jibberish and I have to change it to the right encoding manually.

 

On earlier sub-topic of ROK 90mm coast defense guns on the 'west sea' islands, there've been some more blog and news articles, usually focusing on reports that the guns are in bad shape (rust, oil leaks) and asking why they haven't been replaced with more modern ones. Some interesting photos too, of the actual guns on Yeongpyeong-do, taken by residents:

http://koreadefence.net/print_paper.php?number=1450&news_article=news_article

http://blog.naver.com/PostView.nhn?blogId=chonew&logNo=150098095061&redirect=Dlog&widgetTypeCall=true

 

 

 

From the first link; which claims this is a gun from an M46! I'm pretty sure that's wrong since the gunshield seems to incorporate the mantlet of an M47, which most sources say all these guns came from. But this photo and the earlier one I posted both do have the 'M46 form' of muzzle brake, which according to Hunnicutt was only fitted to preproduction M47's, replaced by the cylindrical, then 'hammer head' shaped ones (one of latter also shown in photo on the first link). I wonder though if some ROKA M47's had the earliest shape muzzle brake, or otherwise how they got there.

 

Joe

Edited December 4, 2010 by JOE BRENNAN

[Ken Estes]

Preproduction M47s might have arrived in Korea prior to the armistice terms that froze the arms on the peninsula for a certain amount of time. That was one reason why 1st Tk Bn USMC left their M46s there when they departed in March 1955.

 

Edit to add: while the guns depicted in Joe's links show the kind of surface rust one would expect in an exposed sea defense position, the one pic with the breech in it shows it well maintained, and this is the part that counts. The only oil leak that counts is in the recoil system, and that would not be that black stuff spreading out on the deck.

Edited December 9, 2010 by Ken Estes

[demosthenes]

Preproduction M47s might have arrived in Korea prior to the armistice terms that froze the arms on the peninsula for a certain amount of time. That was one reason why 1st Tk Bn USMC left their M46s there when they departed in March 1955.

 

Hunnicutt claims that a small number of M47s were sent for "battle testing", although by then the armored threat was virtually gone. Photographic evidence shows at least one platoon. Some had 18 inch searchlights.

[X-Files]

>

Edited December 8, 2010 by X-Files

[Old Tanker]

Preproduction M47s might have arrived in Korea prior to the armistice terms that froze the arms on the peninsula for a certain amount of time. That was one reason why 1st Tk Bn USMC left their M46s there when they departed in March 1955.

 

 

One E-6 TC I had in the '60s served on M-4s 5-6 years after the Armistice.

 

Is getting hairy again over there. The POTROK had a 40% drop in popularity after the last incident.

So the ROK gov't is getting more militant and so is the PRNK .

 

Smells of hypertension like Aug. '14.

[Manic Moran]

So out of interest, how has this whole deal affected the overall population? For example, I seem to recall quite the generational gap between the Korean War survivors who want the US military around and today's college students or recent graduates who generally seem to think that there will be no restart of the war and would prefer the US military not be around.

 

Has there been any sort of sea change after Cheonan and the shelling that maybe the students are realising life is a little less idealistic than they had thought?

 

NTM

[crazyinsane105]

So out of interest, how has this whole deal affected the overall population? For example, I seem to recall quite the generational gap between the Korean War survivors who want the US military around and today's college students or recent graduates who generally seem to think that there will be no restart of the war and would prefer the US military not be around.

 

Has there been any sort of sea change after Cheonan and the shelling that maybe the students are realising life is a little less idealistic than they had thought?

 

NTM

 

Well, a friend of mine is South Korean and he is quite wealthy (his dad works directly under the CEO for Samsung). He believes the US should stay and this was well before the shelling and the sinking of the South Korean vessel. I did read an article a while back which stated that after the shelling incident, many younger South Koreans were struck with the reality that there might be a conflict, though nowhere in it did it mention them wanting the US out prior to all the events that took place.

[swerve]

So out of interest, how has this whole deal affected the overall population? For example, I seem to recall quite the generational gap between the Korean War survivors who want the US military around and today's college students or recent graduates who generally seem to think that there will be no restart of the war and would prefer the US military not be around.

 

NTM

Nick, how long were you out there? Your father was there 1993-98, wasn't he?

[Paul G.]

Interesting find on Google maps...

 

NK SP artillery unit in the vicinity of the Island in question. resolution isnt good enought to tell what kind.

 

Google Maps

 

Here is a wider shot showing two batteries deployed.

 

Google Maps

Edited December 21, 2010 by Paul G.

[Manic Moran]

Nick, how long were you out there? Your father was there 1993-98, wasn't he?

 

Give or take a year. I didn't live there, I only visited on occasion.

 

NTM

[Jim Martin]

The South's latest dastardly provocation of the North:

 

A Christmas tree.

[Sikkiyn]

Are the ROK and US ready for a new Korean war?

What is China's stance this time around?

[crazyinsane105]

Are the ROK and US ready for a new Korean war?

What is China's stance this time around?

 

The US is stretched way too thin for a full scale war on the peninsula. The troops stationed in South Korea and Japan will have to do, as we already have 100 thousand plus in Afghanistan (with countless numbers of PMCs running around because of the lack of readily available troops). The South Koreans will have to do mostly on their own if something drastic erupts. Plus US intervention via aircraft carriers is risky. The Chinese really do not want US aircraft carrier fleets sitting in their territory, regardless of their position towards North Korea.

 

I do doubt though a full scale war is on the horizons. Just that the South Koreans have finally started talking back, that's all.

[Sikkiyn]

The US is stretched way too thin for a full scale war on the peninsula. The troops stationed in South Korea and Japan will have to do, as we already have 100 thousand plus in Afghanistan (with countless numbers of PMCs running around because of the lack of readily available troops). The South Koreans will have to do mostly on their own if something drastic erupts. Plus US intervention via aircraft carriers is risky. The Chinese really do not want US aircraft carrier fleets sitting in their territory, regardless of their position towards North Korea.

 

I do doubt though a full scale war is on the horizons. Just that the South Koreans have finally started talking back, that's all.

 

I doubt it as well; business as usual--just curious.

[Paul in Qatar]

So is the board ready to endorse the raising an additional corps? I seem to recall being shouted down by the Hive Mind a couple of times.

[Guest JamesG123]

The US is stretched way too thin for a full scale war on the peninsula. The troops stationed in South Korea and Japan will have to do, as we already have 100 thousand plus in Afghanistan (with countless numbers of PMCs running around because of the lack of readily available troops).

 

Oh pa' lease.

 

And we have 3/4ths of our force training or hanging out at the house. All of which could be called up and mobilized within 24 hrs. and be in theater within 2 weeks. Plus the NG, and assorted Reserves that could be called up and be there in one to six months, depending on where they were in the deployment cycle. Yeah, it would suck, and the folks already deployed would stay there indefinitely, but we could commit a Corp to Korea if we had to.

 

The South Koreans will have to do mostly on their own if something drastic erupts.

 

That part is true. The initial part of the war would be a short, violent fight, where either the DPRK gave it their best shot but fell on their faces and collapsed, or they pushed the ROK forces back and we get to replay Inchon again.

 

Plus US intervention via aircraft carriers is risky. The Chinese really do not want US aircraft carrier fleets sitting in their territory,

 

Its not their territory. The USN would be operating comfortably from SK or international waters. This is not 1950. The Chinese aren't going to go to war with the US/West over their dim-witted buddy. They have much too much invested and at stake. They may provide aid and comfort, and negotiate on the North's behalf. But the PLA coming in again isn't in the cards. It would be stupid, and the Chinese aren't stupid.

 

I do doubt though a full scale war is on the horizons. Just that the South Koreans have finally started talking back, that's all.

You never know. What Pong Yang is doing now is irrational, and that is hard to predict, and that means you don't know what kind of response you are going to get to your own responses or actions against them. Its like trying to negotiate with a whacko holding a gun to his own head.

[JOE BRENNAN]

I thought it was interesting, ROK has added (Rafael) Spike NLOS missile detachments, as well as MLRS and their newer Saab 'Arthur' counterbattery radars, to the force on Yeongpyeong-do. The Spikes are said to be intended to potentially counter cliffside tunnel mounted NK coastal guns on the island and promontory across from Yeongpyeong-do.

 

[edit] I noticed English language media took much note of NK's saying recently they would wage a 'holy war', which is kind of strange for atheists, but that threat has appeared before in their statements, bobok seongjeon, holy war of retaliation.

 

http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/politics/2010/12/22/0505000000AKR20101222185300043.HTML?template=2087

 

Joe

Edited December 24, 2010 by JOE BRENNAN

[ScottBrim]

So is the board ready to endorse the raising an additional corps? ....

We can endorse anything we want to, but military spending has reached its high water mark and has no where to go but down, along with every other government spending program which isn't an entitlement or part of the social safety net.

 

My personal expectation is that in real dollars, defense spending will fall by roughly a third over the next four years, reaching a plateau only when the US is completely gone from Afghanistan in 2014.

 

We should expect the majority of these cuts to come from the USN, the USMC, and the USAF as the nascent Air-Sea Battle Doctrine is progressively abandoned in favor of Whatever We Can Do With Whatever We've Got Left.

[swerve]

[edit] I noticed English language media took much note of NK's saying recently they would wage a 'holy war', which is kind of strange for atheists, but that threat has appeared before in their statements, bobok seongjeon, holy war of retaliation.

Joe

They're not really atheists. They follow the old practice of deifying rulers. Kim Il Sung has been a god for many years.

Edited December 24, 2010 by swerve

[urbanoid]

Well, he still is venerated as a god and still has the title of "Eternal President", while Kim Jong Il is, IIRC, the "Supreme Leader".

Edited December 24, 2010 by urbanoid

[JOE BRENNAN]

They're not really atheists. They follow the old practice of deifying rulers. Kim Il Sung has been a god for many years.

That's what we say their attitude toward Kim Il Sung* is tantamount to, and it's an illustrative way of describing it, but it's not what they literally say. Anyway I was a little tongue in cheek there: there isn't such a clear distinction between theism and atheism in Sinic/Confucian culture. In the West Communists needed to uproot fundamental Christian precepts of the culture itself, besides countering organized churches as potential political competitors. Asian Communists have generally had less real interest in eliminating belief in 'their own' (indigenous or long ago imported) religions, and focused on the aspect of eliminating or controlling organized religious groups as potential political competitors, especially Christians because of the inherent foreign connections of Christianity in their view. For the most part the NK regime fits that mold, although it's also been compared to not only to ruler cults in general but specifically that of Japan in pre/WWII era. Another parallel is that the NK regime and Japanese colonial regime were both more concerned about suppressing or controlling Christians in Korea than worried about Buddhists. An alternate parallel though, less unflattering to the NK regime in their view anyway, would be to the Chosun Dynasty (which the NK's like enough to use it as their name for the country) which had a (neo-Confucian) quasi-religious public political ideology, tolerated Buddhism but only in the private sphere, persecuted Christians (when they came along).

 

*in the picture of cliffside emplacements in last post, the giant letters on the hill behind are...Great Leader Comrade Kim Il Sung Revolution....

 

Joe

Edited December 24, 2010 by JOE BRENNAN

[Paul in Qatar]

We can endorse anything we want to, but military spending has reached its high water mark and has no where to go but down, along with every other government spending program which isn't an entitlement or part of the social safety net.

 

My personal expectation is that in real dollars, defense spending will fall by roughly a third over the next four years, reaching a plateau only when the US is completely gone from Afghanistan in 2014.

 

So you're saying a Republican congress is going to cut the military in favor of safety net? Maybe, but most people are thinking the reverse.

 

In any case, the financial cost raising an additional corps is a trivial matter. Cancel all those weapons systems with an X in front of them. Cancel a couple of fancy navy subs. Cancel some fighters designed to shoot down the terrorist air force if they ever get one. Fire ten percent of the general officers.