Korean artillery exchange.

[crazyinsane105]

Anyone have an assessment of S.Korean vs.N. Korean forces? I was under the impression that the S. Koreans could take care of this by themselves even if the US does not intervene.

 

Apparently if the South Koreans could handle it by themselves, I don't see why they would want the presence of 20,000 US soldiers on their soil.

[Special-K]

Apparently if the South Koreans could handle it by themselves, I don't see why they would want the presence of 20,000 US soldiers on their soil.

 

 

 

Regardless of whether they could handle it themselves, it's always good to have some backup.

 

 

 

 

 

 

-K

[Scythe]

12 500lb JDAM's?

How do you reckon this?

There are six sponson hardpoints for 500lb bombs and Mk82 based bombs are no longer carrier in TER's by F15's with the 6xMER's completely retired from service.

 

I wasn't talking about MERs, which are a thing of the past. The CFTs have 12 hardpoints in total (6 each). Seriously, just google image search the F-15E. And 12 JDAM/SDBs are a typical, staple loadout for the Strike Eagle. If no loitering is required, you can expect an unrefueled combat radius well in excess of 800 miles, depending on flight profile.

 

Mudhens have went to war and struck SAM-defended targets with much heavier and draggier loadouts - such as hauling 4 GBU-10E/G laser-guided bombs on it's CFTs, in addition to external fuel tanks and self-defense Sidewinders and AMRAAMs. There's a reason why the F-15E is considered by many to be the best overall strike fighter - range, self-defense air-to-air, datalink/avionics, AESA+Sniper XR and the ability to precisely deliver almost any air munition in the U.S. arsenal.

 

EDIT: Ok, I was wrong with about the SDMs - apparently they are carried on these MER-type things. Currently only 4 SDBs per CFT is supported although plans exist to wire support for an additional 4, for a total of 8 SDBs per CFT. And also about the 12 500lb JDAMs - currently only the bottom rack of hardpoints on the CFTs are wired for JDAMs, although the upper row of hardpoints seem like they can be easily rewired to carry JDAMs (ala F-15K). Current: 6 500lb JDAMs, Future: 12 JDAMs.

 

http://www.f-15e.info/joomla/en/weapons/guided-bombs/112-gbu-39b-sdb

 

 

Typical F-15E Desert Storm loadout (http://www.f-15e.info/joomla/en/weapons/loadout-configurations)

 

 

Replace the basic MK-82s with its 500lb JDAM derivative.

Edited November 29, 2010 by Scythe

[Skywalkre]

Apparently if the South Koreans could handle it by themselves, I don't see why they would want the presence of 20,000 US soldiers on their soil.

- We still bring some things to the table that the ROK lacks.

 

- Institutions, once ingrained, are really hard to get rid of.

 

- As far as the US Army goes, we have been scaling back our presence there over the last 5 years (fewer troops and far fewer bases up along the DMZ).

 

- I wouldn't be surprised if there's some treaty obligations that keep us there (and are more hassle than it's worth to redo).

 

That's just the first few things that popped into my head. Lots of understandable reasons why we're still there despite the fact the ROK could most likely handle the north just fine on their own in a military confrontation.

[Ken Estes]

....

That's just the first few things that popped into my head. Lots of understandable reasons why we're still there despite the fact the ROK could most likely handle the north just fine on their own in a military confrontation.

DEFENSIVELY

[Skywalkre]

DEFENSIVELY

You'll need to elaborate, Ken...

[Marcello]

Such maxed out bomb loads conveys to me the presumed idea that the other side will not fight back, and that such a 'war' will be a simple matter of truckstops over the target list.

 

To be fair north koreans don't have much in the way of medium-high altitude air defense. More than enough guns and MANPADs to make life interesting for attack helicopters and low level CAS (and cruise missiles, to an extent) but as far as dealing with JDAM trucks they are still stuck with

SA-2/3/5. Even assuming some modest upgrade they are not going to be very effective or survive a modern SEAD campaign. There is no cheap substitute for this: if you want an effective high altitude air defense you must shell out big bucks, which they are unable to do.

Of course there are some limited ways to work around this. Some of the air bases in South Korea could be attacked with missiles, massed air raids (it is not like all those Mig-19/21 would be useful for much else) and special forces. They also have been emphasizing light infantry and infiltration tactics in an ever increasing manner in the last decades, which should provide less paying targets for air strikes. But such solutions are only partial.

 

Anyone have an assessment of S.Korean vs.N. Korean forces? I was under the impression that the S. Koreans could take care of this by themselves even if the US does not intervene.

 

They could defende themselves but US firepower would help considerably: the war would be shorter and less bloody for South Korea. Also US forces would probably be needed if North Korea was to be finished once for all, though invading the North would open all the sort of cans of worms.

[Archie Pellagio]

I wasn't talking about MERs, which are a thing of the past. The CFTs have 12 hardpoints in total (6 each). Seriously, just google image search the F-15E.

 

Why posting with no sleep is a bad idea, seriously I even had pictures I was going to post...

[Scythe]

Why posting with no sleep is a bad idea, seriously I even had pictures I was going to post...

 

Ha, I was completely wrong anyway, so no big deal. And it turns out that SDBs are carried on MER-like things, so you're partially right, if anything

[m4a1]

As far as "Defensively" is concerned,

 

I do not know if I am correct, but it appears to me that it is not so difficult for modern air force to engage a land force that is conducting a conventional offensive activity (that is: thousands of vehicles must be on and moving, that means they will be warm, and they will have difficulty with running away undetected, contrary to a defending army which does not neccesarily have to have, under certain conditions [such as a heavy-fortified, difficult to move around area], hundreds of its vehs running, and thus easy detectable for various technical means.

[m1a1mg]

I talked for a few minutes with a Captain US Army Special Forces during Thanksgiving. He said there were no troops available to send to Korea.

I think there is a huge difference between long term deployment planning and "Oh-Shit" we need to go now.

 

No disrespect to the SF CPT, but I think he probably isn't read-on to strategic planning*.

 

 

*Neither am I, but there are troops who could be deployed if they had to.

[Chris Werb]

I don't think we'd be looking at a re-run of Task Force Smith.

[Chris Werb]

Ha, I was completely wrong anyway, so no big deal. And it turns out that SDBs are carried on MER-like things, so you're partially right, if anything

 

Well FWIW I learned I didn't know from your exchange with Luke

[Manic Moran]

I think there is a huge difference between long term deployment planning and "Oh-Shit" we need to go now.

 

No disrespect to the SF CPT, but I think he probably isn't read-on to strategic planning*.

 

 

*Neither am I, but there are troops who could be deployed if they had to.

 

I'm inclined to agree. People seem to forget just how much of the military is not currently in Iraq and Afghanistan, just because they're in 'reset' doesn't mean they can't still get tagged to go somewhere.

 

The related on is on 'political will'. There are a lot of people pontificating that the US, tired of the GWOT escapades, have no stomach for entering yet another war. I think that it might be a valid statement for another speculative war with ill-defined and unclear objectives, but 'coming to aid a declared ally in a conventional war against a nation's army' is going to be much simpler and less controversial. Plus, if a number of those 'tripwire' soldiers at Casey or wherever get killed, that makes it even more acceptable to the US population.

 

NTM

[h18w777]

The selection of photos of the current exercises have been limited. Lets take a look at exercises conducted earlier this year instead.

 

South Korean Marines take part in a military exercise, using K9 Thunder self-propelled guns, on Baengyeongdo, an island near the disputed maritime border with North Korea, northwest of Seoul, August 6, 2010.

A South Korean Marine looks at the sea through a pair of binoculars behind a vulcan gun during a photo opportunity during a military exercise on Baengyeongdo, an island near the disputed maritime border with North Korea, northwest of Seoul, August 8, 2010.

South Korean Army tanks cross a river during a military exercise in Hwacheon, 90 km northeast of Seoul, on May 31, 2010.

A South Korean K1 tank moves to a position during a joint gunnery exercise at a military firing range in Pocheon, near the heavily-fortified border with North Korea, on April 15, 2010.

US M1 Abrams tanks clear the ground in a mine-sweeping operation during a joint gunnery exercise at a military firing range in Pocheon, near the heavily-fortified border with North Korea, on April 15, 2010.

[tankerwanabe]

 

They could defende themselves but US firepower would help considerably: the war would be shorter and less bloody for South Korea. Also US forces would probably be needed if North Korea was to be finished once for all, though invading the North would open all the sort of cans of worms.

 

I wonder the level of participation S Korea may receive from Japan should the US be absent. Or in the alternative, the participation of the Chinese themselves.

[Marcello]

I wonder the level of participation S Korea may receive from Japan should the US be absent. Or in the alternative, the participation of the Chinese themselves.

 

I doubt the south koreans would want japanese troops around, people there have long memories... Besides such help would be limited.

China is the wildcard. As there actually are several pro and cons for each option I don't know enough about chinese politics to make a call about what option would prevail. I would expect them not to stab in the back an ally if they can avoid it, but I reallly don't know.

[Chris Werb]

I doubt the south koreans would want japanese troops around, people there have long memories... Besides such help would be limited.

China is the wildcard. As there actually are several pro and cons for each option I don't know enough about chinese politics to make a call about what option would prevail. I would expect them not to stab in the back an ally if they can avoid it, but I reallly don't know.

 

There are enough wildcards to make the whole scenario really unpredictable.

 

1) Chinese reaction.

2) What WMD do the NK's have and who will they attack with them.

3) Will the NK population fight to the death or give up their ideology remarkably quickly (think Nazi Germany).

4) How would Japan react if attacked.

5) What is US/ROK threshold for 'unacceptable' civilian casualties in the North.

6) What will they do with all those submarines?

7) Exactly how extensive and well hidden is their underground tunnel network.

 

There are probably more I haven't thought of.

[Simon Tan]

1) China's situation with NK has been on the decline since the end of the Sunshine policy. The PRC provides just enough aid to keep NoKor from collapsing because they are acutely aware of the kleptocratic tendencies of their clients the Kims. When the US, SoKor and Japan were being taken for a ride, this reduced the burden on China. The Kims are acutely aware of the limits of Beijing's benevolence which is why they have worked so hard and against the will of heaven to get Da Bomb. With Da Bomb, the Kims can extort plenty from the KoKors and Japan (or so they thought).

The Chinese do not really want the NoKors to go away as it will eventually mean a stronger Korea that is less likely to play the classic tributary role to Beijing. NoKor is a useful proxy and it keeps the Koreans and Us distracted while the PRC goes about its business.

Will the PRC go to war over NoKor? They will, though not on the same terms as 1950 when the trigger was the crossing of the 38th parallel.

 

If, SoKor and the US do not attempt full reunification and regime change, then I predict that China will tolerate their proxy being a little bruised and deprived of their nukes. What may well happen is a Chinese peacekeeping force that moves in and replaces the Kims with a more manageable management, correcting in the eyes of the PRC an error in the early 60s that allowed the ingrates to forget the great sacrifices of the Chinese in the Korean War. As part of the arrangement, the PRC will take control of the NoKor nukes and probably have peacekeepers all the way to the 38th parallel.

 

Regime change will simply mean that the Chinese will come shooting. Either way, the Kim dynasty will come to an end.

 

2)My guess is a few devices, semi-weaponized. Their main value would be as nuke IEDs. Doesn't matter if they aren't miniaturized. They probably have a handful of properly weaponized bombs, probably at the free-fall bomb stage or maybe even a Scud topper. Downside, is that they are not going to trust their long range missiles which are not very reliable. But they can certainly toss a atomic Scud at Seoul. Which may or may not detonate and may or may not go high order. That is of course the last resort as a successful atomic attack on Seoul would result in Pyongyang being turned into a glazed car park.

 

3)Most Norks will just quit if left alone. The Norks play along because they have to. Many Pyongyang residents are only too acutely aware of the lie they live.

Military defectors have widely reported disillusionment even within the ranks of the elite. As long as the commissars are in action, you can expect the juche to keep rolling. Nork civvies will be wretched the fruther north of the DMZ and farther from Pyonynag you are. Be prepared for a humanitarian tragedy.

 

4)Being Scudded with conventional warheads will result in outrage and more forward deployment of Japanese assets. A Chem attack would likely see an escalation with commitment of naval and air assets in the active defense of Japan. A Nuke would result in 2).

 

5)No such thing. If SoKor is widely turned to rubble...the only good Nork is a dead Nork.

 

6)Nothing. They will be of limited value unless the Allies launch an amphib op. They can hardly afford a mass sortie

 

7)Massive and very well hidden. They will make great tourist sites if they are not buried and forgotten forever. That or the most kickass cellars in Asia!

 

Simon

[tankerwanabe]

Do the Japanese have the assets to wage an air campaign over NKorea?

[chino]

Japanese ground troops in Korea are unnecessary and unacceptable. Japan doesn't have that big a military to begin with. Aircraft from Japan and ships from would suffice.

 

In the long term - with PRC now having little to no control over NKPR - it would actually be more "safer" for China if a slightly compliant ROK is in control of the whole peninsula. Example, if ROK keeps US troops away from the PRC border, there might be a small chance PRC would not intervene.

 

But PRC might consider intervening on NKPR's side just enough to persuade them not to resort of nuclear arms. That would be a nightmare for the whole world. Things being as unpredictable as they are, there is no telling how many of those NKPR nuclear weapons are already targeted at PRC cities in case they feel "betrayed".

[swerve]

Do the Japanese have the assets to wage an air campaign over NKorea?

Just bought a few tankers, so could probably launch some air strikes, but just providing a secure (defended by the JSDF) base from which the USAF & USN could operate, protecting shipping, & being a huge supply depot for any industrial goods one might possibly find useful in the prosecution of a war would be immensely valuable.

[tankerwanabe]

I wonder whether the Chinese have a plan of their own for regime change. Maybe a Chinese backed Coup D'etat. Wonder what it would take the Chinese to intervene before SKorea,US, or Japan does.

[Guest JamesG123]

NK deciding its a "good idea" to pick a fight with the PRC for a while?

 

That's really all I can see goading the Chinese into doing something.

 

Humanitarian crisis? nope.

 

Foreign policy irresponsibility? pass.

 

Being a CBN proliferation whore? naw.

 

Just being a plain wierdo? There's nothing wrong with that.

 

If you'll notice, China has quite a few repressive hermit kingdoms nestled up to its bosom. They seem quite comfortable with that.

[Ken Estes]

I wonder whether the Chinese have a plan of their own for regime change. Maybe a Chinese backed Coup D'etat. Wonder what it would take the Chinese to intervene before SKorea,US, or Japan does.

Pray tell, where is the evidence that the Chinese are apt to make such overt and risky ventures? Their track record since 1949 remains most conservative, before that even more constrained. After all, a true Confucian will know that time is on their side, a mere matter of a few generations, centuries.