Korean artillery exchange.

[Chris Werb]

Advantages North Korea

 

Surprise.

Possible willingness to use NBC weapons from outset.

Militarised population.

Much larger special forces.

Larger quantities of most kinds of conventional weapons.

Lots of old, but still dangerous patrol subs.

Unlikely to be inhibited by mere considerations of loss of life on either side or of affecting/dragging in/attacking neighbours.

 

Disadvantages NK

 

Population likely to already know how good life could be when not run by despotic nutter

Can't even feed themselves with intact infrastructure

Army is world's largest 1960s reenactment/living history group

Pariah state unlikely to get any support from outside (apart from the odd postcard from Cuba)

Do not have anything like the numerical advantage they need even if the there was a qualitative balance.

 

Advantages South Korea

 

Massive, and I mean massive, technological overmatch in almost every sphere of military operations.

Superpower military support in situ

Larger air force, again with massive technological overmatch (think every structure of significance in NK being taken down in c. 48hrs)

Will initially be fighting on own soil with 56 years of defence preparations in situ

Much larger, free-thinking populace with high degree of military training who have no wish to have lives run by lunatic personality cult

Rest of world has a stake in NK not winning (not universally true, but mostly so)

 

Disadvantages South Korea

 

Many urban areas and much of population within artillery range of NK.

No known WMD capability to counter NK use.

Have to operate within Western/UN ideas of morality or will alienate rest of world including current/potential markets for goods and services.

Edited November 27, 2010 by Chris Werb

[Chris Werb]

North Korea will not go down without using some nukes. It would be so devastating that we would probably turn on Iran next. Once they are used again, having rogue countries making nukes will seem unacceptable. The Libs will be whining the whole time of course!

 

FIFY! I agree BTW.

[Marek Tucan]

I guess that is why Serbia cried uncle so quickly, and are so willing to have another go?

Guess that rust-olem pos tank I crawled over, was nothing more than my imagination?

 

Get real and move your con game to another corner, not going to work here.

 

Erm, maybe you missed the "army in the field" bit? Serbia gave up because of damage to infractrucure in Serbia itself, not because of casaulties to the army.

And maybe, just maybe, the fact that SOME vehicles were hit does not mean that those 600-700 claimed by USAF were hit? How many of the tank wrecks were there? If I am to get real, then please direct me to what happened to the hundreds of wrecks that have to be there because USAF proved effective against army in the field.

[Scythe]

Erm, maybe you missed the "army in the field" bit? Serbia gave up because of damage to infractrucure in Serbia itself, not because of casaulties to the army.

And maybe, just maybe, the fact that SOME vehicles were hit does not mean that those 600-700 claimed by USAF were hit? How many of the tank wrecks were there? If I am to get real, then please direct me to what happened to the hundreds of wrecks that have to be there because USAF proved effective against army in the field.

 

But again, the Serbian Army was dispersed (and completely combat ineffective) at the time of the bombing. If you're hiding from airstrikes, how can you possibly succeed in a ground war.

 

There may be a misunderstanding - I don't think anyone here is advocating that air power alone will destroy the NorK Army and win the war. But between the ground war and the air war (as in, both being present), air power will likely be the deciding factor...is the argument.

 

The Allied Force counter arguments don't work - the Serbian Army was not fighting anything at the time. They didn't have anything to do but hide.

Edited November 27, 2010 by Scythe

[rmgill]

Advantages North Korea

 

Surprise.

Possible willingness to use NBC weapons from outset.

Militarised population.

Much larger special forces.

Larger quantities of most kinds of conventional weapons.

Lots of old, but still dangerous patrol subs.

Unlikely to be inhibited by mere considerations of loss of life on either side or of affecting/dragging in/attacking neighbours.

 

You got surprise but what about fear, ruthless efficiency and fanatical devotion to dear leader?

[Nobu]

You got surprise but what about fear, ruthless efficiency and fanatical devotion to dear leader?

 

Fanatical ruthlessness I don't doubt, but if economic standards are any indication North Korean efficiency should be questioned.

 

Diplomatically, North Korea's efforts have been just a total failure. If they had played their cards correctly, the North could have likely collected aid from Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States for the next century while making the odd noise about theoretical reunification.

 

Now North Korea's only strategic hope for the long term is to somehow trigger a war between China and the United States and Japan. At this point, they should doing everything they can to spark such a conflict.

[T19]

Well... countries that were involved signed on to a 1950's pact are watching very closely... we are on the hook to send troops... The lights have been on at our NDHQ figuring out what we will have to send to the dance.... lots of What if's being worked through

[Manic Moran]

You got surprise but what about fear, ruthless efficiency and fanatical devotion to dear leader?

 

And fancy green uniforms... argh.. I'll come in again.

 

NTM

[RETAC21]

So what if the ROK has more manpower and vastly superior technology? the DPRK has juche!!!!

 

Juche...! Ha! we have powerpoint and doctrine man.

[mnm]

So, if the USSR and China cut off supplies,

 

Hmm... pardon me, but what USSR?...

[Chris Werb]

If I am to get real, then please direct me to what happened to the hundreds of wrecks that have to be there because USAF proved effective against army in the field.

 

Since 1999 virtually every tactical and strategic aircraft in the US Inventory has been equipped with advanced targetting pods and PGMs. If you look at the imagery of NK on google maps, you'll see that it makes FRY look like a seething metropolis. If you exclude underground tunnels, the locations of which must have been known to the ROK/US since their construction, there is simply nowhere to hide outside the few urban areas. The terrain (lots of transverse ridges) makes advance/supply routes highly obvious and easy to interdict.

[Chris Werb]

Hmm... pardon me, but what USSR?...

 

NK advantage #237 Time warp capability.

[NickM]

If you look at the imagery of NK on google maps, you'll see that it makes FRY look like a seething metropolis.

 

What's "FRY"?

 

NM

[swerve]

Disadvantages South Korea

 

Many urban areas and much of population within artillery range of NK.

Probably about 10% of the population, IIRC. Northern Seoul, & villages & towns near the DMZ. And I think they have a lot of shelters.

 

What's "FRY"?

 

NM

Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

Edited November 27, 2010 by swerve

[thekirk]

Probably about 10% of the population, IIRC. Northern Seoul, & villages & towns near the DMZ. And I think they have a lot of shelters.

 

 

Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

 

Swerve, in US military circles, the term "FRY" generally doesn't refer to "Federal Republic of Yugoslavia", it's the "Former Republics of Yugoslavia". It's used to refer to the collective mob of former Yugoslav territories, and the "Federal Republic of Yugoslavia" terminology just wasn't used that much--It was always just "Yugoslavia" or the "Republic of Yugoslavia". I don't think I ever heard or saw the correct "Federal" preface but a couple of times in official documents or correspondence. The usage "Former Republics of Yugoslavia", however, is damn near doctrinal, since the breakup. Ask the average staff officer, and that's what he'll tell you it stands for.

 

There's also "FYROM", which is formed from the more euphonious "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia".

[Guest JamesG123]

You got surprise but what about fear, ruthless efficiency and fanatical devotion to dear leader?

 

 

Don't believe all of the propaganda you read. NK is your typical police state, and while fully indoctrinated to say the right things on cue, they are still people. As soon as The State shows signs of weakness such as an obvious loss of control, failure to provide food and security, the people will choose their own self interest.

[Marcello]

Since 1999 virtually every tactical and strategic aircraft in the US Inventory has been equipped with advanced targetting pods and PGMs. If you look at the imagery of NK on google maps, you'll see that it makes FRY look like a seething metropolis. If you exclude underground tunnels, the locations of which must have been known to the ROK/US since their construction, there is simply nowhere to hide outside the few urban areas. The terrain (lots of transverse ridges) makes advance/supply routes highly obvious and easy to interdict.

 

Well I would not bet on US knowing where every little bunker and tunnel is. Those across the DMZ were detected by accident and/or sounding for example, nobody found those by looking at satellite pictures or similar as far as it is known: on the other hand satellites would be often the only intelligence available for something deep inside North Korea and there are ways to go around that (scheduling, camouflage etc). Keep also in mind that a lot of work may have been done when the US had less advanced detection tech than it is the case today, especially for tunneling and such.

Now most stuff will be known, either because function dictates a shape that cannot be hidden or simply because it was caught, but probably not a 100% affair.

Further, improvements since 1999 notwithstanding I would still bet the USAF has not eliminated the fog of war, though no doubt the life of north korean truck drivers will be shorter and even less fun than it was in 1950.

That being said I suspect that resupply won't be the deciding issue. North Korea is not (and should not be given the circumstances) planning for a long war, rather a short high intensity one. A lot of supplies are stored forward, for example each gun is supposed have up to 400-500 rounds at hand or in the area: probably more than they will be able to fire before they get a JDAM dropped on them, which eliminates the need for resupply.

Edited November 27, 2010 by Marcello

[Marek Tucan]

RE Kosovo, the Yugoslav army performed combat os. Even the AF managed to sneak in a numbe of CAS missions.

 

The point was that the AF ability to kill tanks, guns etc., is problematic, esp. in hilly forested areas. Korean frontier anyone? And the concentration of arty is so big that USAF+RoKAF would have hard time silencing enough of them to prevent major damage to RoK cities.

[TSJ]

All of this latest brouhaha is about the old man showing junior the ropes.

Edited November 27, 2010 by TSJ

[Chris Werb]

Probably about 10% of the population, IIRC. Northern Seoul, & villages & towns near the DMZ. And I think they have a lot of shelters.

 

 

Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

 

You're right of course, but I meant the 'F' to stand for 'Former' as in TheKirk's definition.

[Chris Werb]

RE Kosovo, the Yugoslav army performed combat os. Even the AF managed to sneak in a numbe of CAS missions.

 

Neither on any scale. We could argue that the Germans conducted organised offensive ground operations and actively contesting airspace until the last days of WW2, but that's not to say their forces we're actually capable of influencing the outcome.

 

The point was that the AF ability to kill tanks, guns etc., is problematic, esp. in hilly forested areas. Korean frontier anyone?

 

Problematic, but has increased dramatically since 1999.

 

And the concentration of arty is so big that USAF+RoKAF would have hard time silencing enough of them to prevent major damage to RoK cities.

 

I don't think anyone is actually denying that, although the percentage of cities within range isn't as high as I'd initially feared.

Edited November 27, 2010 by Chris Werb

[rmgill]

Don't believe all of the propaganda you read. NK is your typical police state, and while fully indoctrinated to say the right things on cue, they are still people. As soon as The State shows signs of weakness such as an obvious loss of control, failure to provide food and security, the people will choose their own self interest.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTwnwbG9YLE

 

Should I have prefaced it with "one o' thae' crosbeams 'gon owtskew o'thae tredle".

 

See also Spanish Inquisition.

[Chris Werb]

Well I would not bet on US knowing where every little bunker and tunnel is.

 

Granted, and a great post Marcello.

 

Not relevant to the discussion, but I thought this was interesting:

 

Edited November 27, 2010 by Chris Werb

[Jeff]

If things go pear shaped, I hope we have a shitload of JDAM's because we'll need all we can get.

[Stargrunt6]

A country with whole families defecting at a time, I just don't see them putting up a fight after a while. Once their massive formations get cut-off, I see troops shooting their own officers and commissars and surrendering to news crews.