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Posted
On 12/31/2023 at 7:12 PM, BansheeOne said:

The debate about possible un-suspension of the draft is still rather theoretical and at the make-a-wish level. Pistorius has repeatedly stated he thinks suspension was a mistake, and recently shown some sympathy for a Scandinavian-style gender-neutral selective service model, but has been first to note it would face considerable hurdles, and winning more volunteers should be the primary target. As many have noted, a selective service model would run headlong into the German obsession with Wehrgerechtigkeit bolstered by a 2009 Constitutional Court finding that it demands the most universal and equal conscription possible. Which would be made harder by expanding the base to women, a step that would also require changing the constitution.

While Pistorius is leaving for a trip through Scandinavia today to inform himself better on how they do conscription there, it's being reported that he has ordered his ministry to present options for a possible future German model by 1 April (yeah, it's a foolish date). According to this, he wants a general decision on direction before the next national elections in 2025. I'm a bit surprised, because I would have expected this in an off-election year like 2027.

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Posted
On 3/9/2023 at 11:37 AM, BansheeOne said:

There was a related recent YouGov survey somewhat scandalized as "only eleven percent of Germans prepared to defend the country in case of attack". More precisely, five percent of respondents across all age groups above 18, and of both sexes, said they would volunteer to fight; another six expected to be conscripted. Eleven said they would volunteer to help by other than military means (this was particularly mentioned by those over 60), while 33 said they would try to keep living their life as usual, and 24 that they would leave the country as quickly as possible (stated by more of the younger than the older respondents).

Unsurprisingly, those who already know how to use guns (23 percent of respondents) were more than twice as likely to volunteer to fight. More surprisingly (but then again maybe not given current politics), Green voters were also more inclined than those of other parties; as were men compared to women. Of course the overall impression remains that more than half of Germans would try to avoid being inconvenienced by an attack at best they could, including by fleeing the country.

Then again, disregarding detailed distribution between ages and genders, just five percent out of 30 million citizens estimated fit for military service volunteering would be 1.5 million. Add six percent willing to follow conscription, and you're at 3.3 million - compared to a current military strength of 183,000, a cap of 370,000 mandated by the Two-plus-Four Treaty on reunification, and a combined East and West German strength of ca. 660,000 during the Cold War. I think we're gonna be okay.

A current survey by Forsa, following upon one from November 2023 which I missed, shows a slight increase of respondents saying they would "definitely" take up arms to defend Germany from 17 to 19 percent, with another 19 allowing they "probably" would. Those saying they definitely or probably wouldn't decrease equally slightly from 61 to 59 percent. Unsurprisingly, willingness is higher among men with 29 "definitely" and another 25 "probably" then among women with 10 and 13 percent respectively. Rather notably, it's also higher in West Germany with 20 percent each "definitely" and probably than in the East with 16 and 11 respectively.

Another notable point is that willingness is overall highest among those aged 18-29, though that includes only 14 percent "definitely" along with 33 "probably". For those 30-44 it becomes 18 and 16, rising to 25 and 19 for those 45-59, then drops to 19 and 16 again for the crusty 60-plus. By education level, as to be expected those with the lowest are most willing with 34 percent "definitely" and 15 "probably", those with medium school education 19 and 20 respectively, those with the highest and university education 15 and 22. Though among the latter, those saying they definitely or probably would not serve is lower at 56 percent than among those with mid-level education at 68, even if higher than those with the lowest at 50.

By party affiliation, conservative values come through for CDU/CSU voters with 28 percent "definitely" and 21 "probably", followed by AfD voters with 25 and 18 respectively. FDP voters ahead of those of the SPD in total, though the latter more committed with 18 vs. 16 percent "definitely", and 20 vs. 29 "probably". OTOH, FDP supporters are also least committed against serving with a total of just 47 percent compared to 50 for CDU/CSU, 55 for AfD, and 59 for SPD. Green voters still most pacifist with 14 percent "definitely" and 21 "probably" willing to take up arms, while 61 are definitely or probably unwilling.

 

Posted

And reports on future overall structure of the Bundeswehr, to be officially presented after Easter if the minister signs up:

- Return to the three traditional services Heer, Luftwaffe, Marine plus Cyber/Information Space as an equal branch, each with their own inspector. Current joint logistics and medical services to be downgraded and put under a common support command subordinated to the Deputy Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, though there will be a Chief Medical Officer who might be placed in the MoD.

- NBC defense, military police, CIMIC, Guard Battalion and homeguard forces, currently subordinated to the joint logistics service, will return to the Heer.

- Deployed Forces Command and Territorial Command to be unified in a joint Operative Command, which will also lead the territorial state defense commands directly.

- Target strength remains 203,000 including 3,500 active reservists (current: ca. 182,000). Structures to enable resumption of conscription to be built up, along with a war-capable procurement organization and redundant structures to supply the forces.

- Target date for implementation is 2027.

This exceeds the previous reform plans under Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer a bit, which retained the dual top commands, and only suggested to investigate options for concentrating logistics and medical under a joint command. So it slims down at the top a little more.

Posted

When the old times return, so do the old ways ...

Speaking of the homeguard forces, current state of developments:

- HschRgt 1 - Bavaria (seven local line companies)

- HschRgt 2 - North Rhine-Westphalia (three existing and two planned local line companies)

- HschRgt 3 - Lower Saxony (four local, but may include the line company from Bremen; in addition to an HQ and a support company, there is also a dedicated one for training, which may indicate a pattern for regiments smaller than the Bavarian)

- HschRgt 4 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (to be commissioned 1 October 2024; one existing and two planned local, two line companies from Schleswig-Holstein, one from Hamburg)

- HschRgt 5 - Hesse (to be commissioned 1 April 2025; three local line companies, but may include more)

- HschRgt 6 - Berlin (to be commissioned 1 October 2025; one local, but may include one each line company from Brandenburg, Thuringia, Saxony, and two from Saxony-Anhalt).

Currently unassigned companies: Three from Baden-Württemberg, two from Rhineland-Palatinate, one from the Saarland. They could form their own regiment, but no such plans are known, and Hesse is supposed to get more. Those might include the three from BW and one from RLP, while the remaining two might be subordinated to NRW.

Posted
On 3/7/2024 at 8:47 AM, BansheeOne said:

- HschRgt 4 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (to be commissioned 1 October 2024; one existing and two planned local, two line companies from Schleswig-Holstein, one from Hamburg)

Ah ... a second Hamburg company commissioned while I was typing. The planned total remains 42, so three more remain to be established. By population, they should be in North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg; but with three planned for sparsely-settled Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, clearly there are other considerations at play, too.

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
On 2/18/2024 at 1:27 PM, BansheeOne said:

Requirements: common unmanned 25 mm turret with Wiesel successor by Slovenian maker Valhalla based upon the remote-controlled-but-hatched design from the Airmobile Weapons Carrier technology demonstrator, probably mounting the Oerlikon KBA. No expressive anti-tank capabilities, though a later integration of loitering ammunition for this purpose is considered. Maximum mass 30 tons including 20 percent growth potential, thus initially 25 tons.

The Bundeswehr has now issued a request to tender for 153 25-mm autocannon with an option for 162 more. Requirements are pretty much written around the KBA: Introduced with a NATO nation, ITAR- and EAR-free, maximum height in turret 36 cm. ITAR rules out Bushmaster immediately, while the French Nexter M811 just happens to have a height of 37 cm. Of course the KBA with just 28 cm has definite material advantages for turret height, particularly in an airborne weapons carrier which must be carried internally in aircraft.

  • 1 month later...
Posted

The German Army is expected to join an exercise with Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force as early as next year, according to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, against a backdrop of China's military buildup in the Indo-Pacific region and territorial claims in the South China Sea.

In a recent written interview with Kyodo News, Pistorius revealed that the upcoming joint exercise, set to take place in Japan, will be the first of its kind between the two countries' ground forces. 

...

Pistorius stated that officials from Germany's army have recently visited Japan to coordinate their participation in the GSDF drills. This collaboration follows the conclusion of their defense pact earlier this year, aimed at facilitating exchanges of supplies and logistical support.

The acquisition and cross-servicing agreement, or ACSA, simplifies the process of sharing food, fuel and ammunition between Japan's Self-Defense Forces and the German military.

The two countries' maritime and air forces have already conducted joint exercises, and Germany is committed to deploying a frigate, a supply ship and aircraft in the Indo-Pacific region this year.

The German frigate is expected to make a port call in Japan in August, with the European country's fighter jets planned to join a drill with Japan's Air Self-Defense Force in July.

...

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/05/9b350f4127cf-japan-germany-may-hold-1st-joint-land-force-exercise-next-year.html

Posted

To add some to what Futon said.

Last year German Eurofighters flew to Australia to take part in the Annual Pitch Black airforce training exercise. The Germans are doing this to work out how long it takes for them to get to the Pacific as a prelude to deploying forces incase of the China threat.

Posted

To me, it's pointless virtue signalling. There isn't much that the German Navy or Luftwaffe can do in the Pacific, and even fewer meaningful things. Our power projection capabilities cover, in order of decreasing influence, the North Sea, the Baltic, the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and it end a couple of sea miles southeast of the Horn of Africa.

We send these ships and planes because we can, to signal commitment to alliances, because we can't demonstrate it beyond this. All we can do is donating stuff to Ukraine, and the various deployments of troop contingents to Afghanistan (while Russia supported us there), the Balkans, and Sub-Saharan Africa (because the French asked). Now we throw everything that can be mobilized to Lithuania and keep our fingers crossed that nothing bad will happen while we're there.

Sending a Frigate to sail around in exotic places and sending fighter jets to Australia without fighting there is comparatively cheap. And we need the Aussies to produce Boxers and other stuff for Europe, so it's prudent to be nice to them. But at the end of the day, it's posturing without any serious capability behind it. It gets some pilots much needed stick time, and air-to-air refueling practice. That's certainly valuable.

Posted

I can think of three useful things 4 German Typhoons can do if Taiwan stuff happens.

1) Help keep an eye and deterrance towards the north. The same Russia is here too. 

2) Escort long range aircraft such aerial refuelers or US bombers. PRC long range air-to-air missiles surely intend to target these.

3) Add mass to fighter groups that include other allies such as Australia. 

Posted (edited)

For the frigate.. two ideas

1) Keep an eye on DPRK shipping activity. A Canadian warship has been doing that. Will still need to keep an eye on them if Taiwan stuff happens.

2) Anti-sub patrols outside the 1st island chain. Some PRC subs may get through the island chain. An extra frigate can help cover up exposed areas further back such as areas along the 2nd island chain. (and actually, Russian Pacific Fleet subs may try to poke around as well).

Edited by futon
Posted
6 hours ago, Ssnake said:

To me, it's pointless virtue signalling.

 

That does fit our current government.

Posted
On 3/7/2024 at 8:47 AM, BansheeOne said:

When the old times return, so do the old ways ...

Speaking of the homeguard forces, current state of developments:

- HschRgt 1 - Bavaria (seven local line companies)

- HschRgt 2 - North Rhine-Westphalia (three existing and two planned local line companies)

- HschRgt 3 - Lower Saxony (four local, but may include the line company from Bremen; in addition to an HQ and a support company, there is also a dedicated one for training, which may indicate a pattern for regiments smaller than the Bavarian)

- HschRgt 4 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (to be commissioned 1 October 2024; one existing and two planned local, two line companies from Schleswig-Holstein, one from Hamburg)

- HschRgt 5 - Hesse (to be commissioned 1 April 2025; three local line companies, but may include more)

- HschRgt 6 - Berlin (to be commissioned 1 October 2025; one local, but may include one each line company from Brandenburg, Thuringia, Saxony, and two from Saxony-Anhalt).

Currently unassigned companies: Three from Baden-Württemberg, two from Rhineland-Palatinate, one from the Saarland. They could form their own regiment, but no such plans are known, and Hesse is supposed to get more. Those might include the three from BW and one from RLP, while the remaining two might be subordinated to NRW.

Without conscription or some kind of total force concept like in the US, it will stay a joke. How many Jäger and Sicherungsbataillone were part of the structure at the end of the Cold War?  100? 150? If you really want enough units for rear area security, that are the numbers you need to discuss. The current planning is a meaningless joke.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

That makes at least some logistical and training sense, as both the automotive platform and the turret have already been introduced. A different turret would make the fleet management and support organization even more complex.

  • 2 weeks later...

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