German Armed Forces reduced to 150 000?

[seahawk]

I even think the value of the draft as "school of the nation" was higher than the value to the Bundeswehr, because it brought together people from different levels of education, different social backgrounds and forced them to work together. I see this in the young students, they are much more removed from the craftsmen of the same age, than those in the time when we still had the draft.

[Ssnake]

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Most Germans want compulsory military service return — poll

Cue mandatory Yes, Minister reference:

[DB]

How well/badly are the PBI paid in Germany?

[Ssnake]

PBI?

[Rick]

6 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

PBI?

Post Beer Inspector?

[sunday]

Poor Bloody Infantry, probably.

[BansheeOne]

On 3/9/2023 at 11:37 AM, BansheeOne said:

Meanwhile, recruiting seems to recover somewhat from the COVID impact. Last year, 18.775 new troops joined the Bundeswehr (9.171 on contract, 8.623 short-timers and 981 homeland protection volunteers); that's about twelve percent more than 2021, but still below the last pre-COVID number of 20.170 in 2019.

It should be noted though that while enlistment numbers rose, applications actually dropped about eleven percent from the previous year, as the Bundestag's defense commissioner stated in her annual report today. Not sure whether that means the current situation is cutting the dead wood among applicants, or it has led to relaxed standards for acceptance. The cynic suspects the latter of course.

Quote

German military revamp 'too sluggish,' says commissioner

3 hours ago

Military commissioner Eva Högl called for a huge increase in funding for Germany's Bundeswehr. She said that the force needed more soldiers and that little progress had been made on the enlistment of women.

Eva Högl, commissioner for Germany's armed forces, said on Wednesday that Berlin was working too slowly to build up the Bundeswehr.

Högl, whose role is to ensure parliamentary control of the armed forces, was making her report in light of the "tuning point" announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, Scholz said an additional €100 billion ($107 billion) would be made available to bring the Bundeswehr up to scratch. 

What the commissioner said

Högl said that while the military was being asked to do more, its stock of clothing, ammunition, and spare parts was running low.

"The procurement system is too sluggish," Högl said. "The first projects are on the way, but in 2022 our soldiers still haven't received a single cent from special funds," she said.

Högl argued that there had rarely been such a strong social consensus in Germany as in the case of the reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz has referred to as a "turning point."

The commissioner called for additional funding to be earmarked for the armed forces, beyond the €100 billion ($107 billion) already supplied as part of a one-off fund.

"The 100 billion euros won't be enough in order to compensate for all the deficiencies, military experts estimate that a total sum of 300 billion euros is necessary," she said.

Högl cast doubt over whether Germany's armed forces will be able to achieve its goal of reaching 203,000 soldiers by 2031.

[...]

The chairman of the German Army Association, Andre Wüstner, said in an interview for the radio station Bayern 2 that Berlin's defense policy had lost "more or less a year."

He said that tanks sent to Ukraine "need to be replaced quickly."

"If we're lucky, they'll be contracted shortly before Easter and then an order will be put out," he said.

Bundeswehr announces new chief

Högl's comments come a day after it was announced that Carsten Breuer would become the new chief of the Bundeswehr.

He succeeds General Eberhard Zorn, who took over the post in April 2018.

Breuer was previously head of the new Territorial Command of the Bundeswehr. He also served as the head of the Coronavirus Crisis Staff in the chancellor's office.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-military-revamp-too-sluggish-says-commissioner/a-64977832

[BansheeOne]

On 10/17/2022 at 7:20 PM, BansheeOne said:

A tender for actual mobile air defense was originally planned for 2026. The plan is for ten firing units (attached to the brigade and divisional artillery battalions), each possibly of a command and six effector vehicles. Those might be Skyranger Boxers with a mix of guns, missiles and lasers.

Reports of 20-30 Skyranger "systems" to be ordered next year and delivered from 2026. Not sure whether that means individual vehicles or combinations thereof; translating to two or three per firing unit, the former would be a little austere.

[DB]

"Poor Bloody Infantry"

I was asking if joining up paid well, compared to say, flipping bratwurst.

[BansheeOne]

Ssnake discussed Bundeswehr paygrades ten pages back:

Meanwhile Germany and Australia signed an agreement today for the latter to deliver 100-plus fire support Boxers based upon their domestically produced CRV variant with Lance 2 turret from 2025. It's another thing that makes entirely too much sense to have been seriously considered two years ago.

[Mighty_Zuk]

3 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Meanwhile Germany and Australia signed an agreement today for the latter to deliver 100-plus fire support Boxers based upon their domestically produced CRV variant with Lance 2 turret from 2025. It's another thing that makes entirely too much sense to have been seriously considered two years ago.

I don't understand the drama around this. Australia was promised a Boxer production/maintenance center in the LAND 400 program. Why is anyone surprised that part of it includes.... getting contracts? Even if Australia cancels the LAND 400 program, they people working there are still secure with the obligation to keep the center working.

[BansheeOne]

I'm sure someone is complaining somewhere, but I haven't heard anything myself. In fact the Australians are probably acommodating us somewhat with the deal, since with CRV production started literally the day of the agreement, they may have to divert time planned for their own demand to begin supplying Germany in 2025. Not that I don't think they're happy to for the opportunity.

 

[seahawk]

Sure, as there are other turret options.

[BansheeOne]

Random news of today:

- Defense minister Pistorius replaces head of the Bundeswehr's procurement agency with her current deputy to get "more drive" into processes.

- Bundestag authorizes an additional 15 billion Euro for military support of Ukraine until 2032, including 3.8 for replacement of weapons handed over from Bundeswehr stocks. Inter alia, ten PzH 2000 and options for 18 more; Leopard 2 A7, allegedly to be equipped with Trophy; and ammunition. Contracts for the Leopards to be signed before parliamentary summer recess, time to delivery estimated to be a little over two years.

[BansheeOne]

On 3/10/2023 at 9:11 AM, BansheeOne said:

Personally I'll wait for another four years or so to see how recruiting turns out to develop en route to the 2031 target. If the planned structures can't be filled even with the ongoing buildup of reserves, and the current threat level continues, we may well face the choice to go back to a 240-250,000 strength that looks like the minimum for a sensible application of general conscription. If additional things happen, like the US suffering an aggravated relapse into Trumpism, it might not even be much of a choice.

I've thought about the case for reintroducing conscription in the last weeks and looked for data. The current target for 2031 with an eight-brigade army is of course an overall Bundeswehr strength of 203,000. Even before we come to the point that there is no development like that in sight, with figures hovering around 183,000 for the last three years, it's already clear that this wouldn't be sufficient to have an all-active force with the planned organization; the Heer alone is expecting it would have to add another 20,000 activated reservists, and across all services the required strength might be more like 240,000. That's without suggestions to increase the number of brigades to ten after 2031, which would at least get us to 250,000.

The Bundeswehr last had that strength during the "Neues Heer" army organization from 2003 to 2010, with about 20 percent conscipts. Around 70,000 were called up every year for a nine-month-term. Compared to annual drafts of ca. 200,000 during the Cold War, this was achieved by making civilian substitute service essentially a free choice and increasing standards for medicals at a time fitness levels among the younger generation were going down anyway. Even so, some judged to be fit for service were never called up, and the arbitrariness of the system which also resulted in marginally-trained soldiers who couldn't be deployed in the missions of the time contributed significantly to its demise.

In the next 20 years, around 400,000 males (and as many females) will reach military age annually. In recent years, there have been about 100,000 births without German citizenship each year, which would reduce eligible numbers to about 350,000 males and 700,000 total. To reproduce the model of the early century, you'd therefore have to call up one-fifth of every male class, or one-tenth of an entire class if we assume going for the Scandinavian trend of gender-neutral conscription. The problem is thus not a lack of available conscripts, but again the German obsession with Wehrgerechtigkeit which makes it hard to copy the Scandinavian type of selective service, too.

Obviously the question of deployability also arises again. This doesn't concern NATO defense; even during the Cold War, the Bundeswehr had contingency missions to defend Northern Norway and the Black Sea approaches in the admittedly unlikely case that there would have been a flank attack by the Warsaw Pact not involving West Germany, and of course allied conscripts were in turn expected to defend the latter. But despite a shift of focus, international missions are not going to go away entirely. In "Neues Heer", the formations that could deploy without conscripts were Panzer Brigades 12 and 21, Jäger Brigade 37, Airmobile Brigade 1, Airborne Brigade 31 and elements of 26, plus the German elements of the French-German Brigade and, obviously, the Special Forces Command.

The Bundeswehr target structure for 2031 OTOH is designed around the NATO commitment to have one mechanized division (typically of two German and one partner brigade) and one airborne task force at high readiness for the defense of Eastern Europe, with one other each working up and standing down at any time. Thus we have three German plus one Dutch each heavy and medium brigades, with the ninth "mechanized" brigade supposedly a mountain one. The airborne task force would then probably be made up from elements of one Dutch and German brigade each. Other than a planned additional airborne regiment for national contingencies, this ties up all available forces in the NATO defense scheme.

Even so, there are some shortages. The Dutch mechanized brigades currently have only two active national maneuver elements and no organic artillery; while NDL 43rd Mech is rounded out by GER/NDL Panzerbataillon 414, a similar solution for 13th Light is only being investigated - as is a third German maneuver battalion for the French-German Brigade, apparently under the assumption that the French elements will not be part of the NATO mission. Neither will German Mountain Brigade 23 have its own artillery under current plans, and there are already complaints that divisional artillery remains somewhat light, too. Unclear if the planned air defense units are already factored in, either.

In short, the target organization is really the bare minimum to meet NATO commitments, and then with some shortcomings which might or might not be addressed under expectable constraints. Unless you get more partners involved - the Czech have been mentioned early on - no reserves remain for international missions, which would otherwise be typically entrusted to Mountain Brigade 23 with its "difficult terrain" capability (most recently in Mali). The overall scope has been envisioned to be ten German and five partner brigades, but currently such a buildup after 2031 looks like it would require either a dramatic rise in volunteers or, indeed, a return of conscription.

[BansheeOne]

Meanwhile the Special Forces Command of the Marine is to double in size from 300 to 600 posts within the next two years. Currenty comprising only the combat diver company, a training/technical development group and a medical support team, a new boat company and a support company will be established tomorrow; the training group will be upgraded to "Training Center Special Forces of the Marine".

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Ssnake]

Brilliant.

[urbanoid]

*Laibach starts playing in the background*

[BansheeOne]

I find that it's actually real - the "Imperials" collected donations for a well-known charity for handicapped children - and am disappointed they didn't have the band play the Imperial March.

[Ssnake]

You're not legally permitted to play the Imperial March unless you have appropriated the funds to build a Death Star.

[Stuart Galbraith]

You can see where US space command went wrong. They want star trek, the people want more Lord Vader.

Very well done anyway.

[BansheeOne]

On 3/29/2023 at 9:17 PM, BansheeOne said:

- Bundestag authorizes an additional 15 billion Euro for military support of Ukraine until 2032, including 3.8 for replacement of weapons handed over from Bundeswehr stocks. Inter alia, ten PzH 2000 and options for 18 more; Leopard 2 A7, allegedly to be equipped with Trophy; and ammunition. Contracts for the Leopards to be signed before parliamentary summer recess, time to delivery estimated to be a little over two years.

In fact this is now reported as a Leopard 2 A8 version, "technologically built upon" the A7HU for Hungary. Alleged improvements: combined video and IR channels for the entire crew, bomblet protection for the turret, 20 kW APU, etc. New builds, obviously. Supposedly this will actually just be an intermediate step towards even more advanced versions. Most startingly, the contract to be made with KMW will not only be for replacement of the 18 A6 supplied to Ukraine, but include options for an additional "mid-three-digit number". If true, that doesn't exactly indicate confidence in the French-German plans for MGCS.

Will cross-post to the AFV forum.

Edited April 14, 2023 by BansheeOne

[seahawk]

I would not say a lack of confidence, more a changing time frame.  MGCS is unable to cover any need for new tanks in the 2020ies, so you will have to buy Leo 2s and if you buy more advanced Leo 2s, you need MGCS later. 

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Boris Pistorius declares war on Bundeswehr bureaucracy

William Noah Glucroft

41 minutes ago

Leaner, faster, better. Germany’s defense minister is under pressure to show that he can succeed where his predecessors have failed: Cut bureaucracy, and turn the Bundeswehr into a serious fighting force.

Turning a battleship, as the saying goes, takes time. For the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, it can take even longer.

From delivering advanced weapons to putting socks on soldiers' feet, the military is infamous for costly and hamstrung procurement. Boris Pistorius, who stepped into the role as defense minister earlier this year, has said changing that is his top priority.

"More than anything, this is about speeding up procurement for the Bundeswehr," he said at a ministry-hosted roundtable with German arms manufacturers earlier this month. "There are gaps to fill."

The comments fit with Pistorius' very public effort to show that he can succeed where his predecessors have failed and make the Bundeswehr a battle-ready fighting force to be reckoned with.

First rule: Fewer rules

Pistorius has said that he wants to do away with regulations that hamper research and development, and procurement, which have piled up over the years and come on top of statutory requirements. Arduous approval processes and sign-offs from up-and-down the ministry's hierarchy are to be streamlined.

Creativity, flexibility and initiative are supposed to be the new buzzwords that guide the military's procurement office of more than 11,000 people. That is six times bigger than the defense ministry itself.

At the end of April, the defense ministry published an internal document known as the Zimmer Decree — published by the news platform, Business Insider, and obtained by DW — emphasized that the "time factor has the highest priority and is, effective immediately, the essential factor for all pending and new equipment projects for the armed forces."

Path of least resistance

Despite the sense of urgency, the memo is just a piece of paper. Neither it nor Pistorius' commands can, on their own, jolt a lethargic bureaucracy into action.

[...]

The way forward, as Zimmer has laid out, is the path of least resistance. That foremost means doing without specialized equipment, which risks time and cost overruns. Instead, the decree requires making use of "off-the-shelf products."

The shift reflects one of the major criticisms of Germany's military-industrial complex: It reinvents the wheel, rather than making use of cheaper options that already exist.

[...]

The Bundeswehr's struggle to equip and maintain its forces is a long-running joke in German policy circles. Its civilian leadership comes and goes, rarely with much to show for their stated efforts.

The roots of the Bundeswehr's challenges run deep. Established along with the federal republic shortly after the end of Nazi rule, "distrust" in the military legally kneecapped it from the get-go, Klaus Wittmann, a retired German brigadier general, told DW.

Article 87 of Germany's constitution, the Basic Law, puts a wall between the armed forces and the administration of it. That placed procurement authority for the military beyond the reach of the military itself.

Though then-West German forces were more formidable during the Cold War, political will to keep funding it evaporated along with the Soviet threat.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 facilitated a change in mindset. A new sense of urgency, most concretely represented by Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "Zeitenwende" address a few days into the war, has largely overtaken German sensitivities about military power.

Unlike those who came before him, Pistorius has the wind at his back and is clear about the security reality he stepped into. He has shown an interest to learn on the job, Wittmann said, and listen to what his military counterparts say they need.

"I am really quite optimistic, and think [Pistorius] has gotten off on the right foot," he said.

Despite the goodwill, Wittmann said he will wait for results — and feedback from troops — before he is willing to proclaim mission accomplished.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-defense-minister-declares-war-on-bundeswehr-bureaucracy/a-65661438