German Armed Forces reduced to 150 000?

[BansheeOne]

On 12/15/2022 at 7:21 PM, BansheeOne said:

The upgrades on Puma are not just integration of Spike but ... well, basically making the vehicle work as advertized in the first place, which involves modifications of sensors and software updates. Supposedly there were stabilization problems with the turret, though I'm not sure if that literally meant the stabilization system or system stability.

To wit:

Quote

Technical problems plague Germany's Puma armored vehicles

4 hours ago

The German-built infantry fighting vehicles were reportedly plagued by defects during a recent training exercise. The incidents have jeopardized the vehicle's use in NATO's spearhead force next year.

Germany's armed forces, the Bundeswehr, has been experiencing serious technical problems with its Puma infantry fighting vehicles, according to a report in Der Spiegel magazine on Saturday.

After a training exercise involving 18 state-of-the-art Puma infantry fighting vehicles, not a single one was left operational, the report said.

The situation has caused a stir in the Defense Ministry because the vehicles are supposed to participate in NATO's spearhead Very High Readiness Joint Task Force next year.

The Pumas assigned to the task force will instead be replaced with the older but proven Marder infantry fighting vehicle "until further notice," Major General Ruprecht von Butler said in a letter to the ministry, according to Der Spiegel.

[...]

Von Butler wrote in his letter to the Defense Ministry that although troops were aware of the Puma's reputation for unreliability, such technical problems had "never occurred with such frequency" as seen in the recent test.

The latest spate of incidents included one tank that suffered a cable fire in the driver's compartment, while at least two others had turret defects that emerged during the training exercise.

https://www.dw.com/en/technical-problems-plague-germanys-puma-armored-vehicles/a-64138126

And these were vehicles already upgraded for VJTF. Something's very rotten with this thing, which might partially explain the move to more Boxer IFVs rather than a big second lot of Pumas. Though the decision between the Puma and Lance turret for the former is still open.

[Markus Becker]

2 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

To wit:

https://www.dw.com/en/technical-problems-plague-germanys-puma-armored-vehicles/a-64138126

And these were vehicles already upgraded for VJTF. Something's very rotten with this thing, which might partially explain the move to more Boxer IFVs rather than a big second lot of Pumas. Though the decision between the Puma and Lance turret for the former is still open.

I just read it too. Why does it take months to fix them? No spare parts as usual? 

[BansheeOne]

Either that, or we're talking industry-level repair; IIRC I read somewhere recently that few electronic systems on the Puma can be handled by troops, which gives you pause in itself. In the case of cable fires, it's easy to see reinstallation taking three or four months, as a maintenance NCO was reportedly quoted with for bringing the affected company back to full operational readiness in the letter of CG 1. Panzerdivision.

[seahawk]

So it went exactly as expected, as the chance to have the 41 VTJF Pumas combat ready by 2023 was seen as low as 30% back in 2019.

https://www.zdf.de/politik/frontal/puma-der-pannenpanzer-100.html

Spare parts were to be created through cannibalisation of the remaining fleet and the upgraded units did also not get more spare parts.

And if we would really have a "Zeitenwende" we would be talking about another Marder up-grade to keep it available for reserve formations and as a reserve pool of vehicles into 2050.

Edited December 18, 2022 by seahawk

[BansheeOne]

Defense Minister Lambrecht has reportedly suspended procurement of the recently-authorized second Puma lot. Looks like Marder will fill in for VJTF, too.

[bojan]

WTF is wrong with Puma?

[Huba]

I read rumors that at least some people in the Bundeswehr (or MoD) would prefer scrapping the Puma program altogether, and replacing it with something else (cheaper), like the tracked Boxer. Is there any truth in that?

Edited December 19, 2022 by Huba

[BansheeOne]

Not necessarily something cheaper, but definitely something else. There are suggestions that treatment of this incident - the commanding general of 1. Panzerdivision writing a screaming mad letter/e-mail to the MoD which seems to have gone more or less CC to "Spiegel" - speaks of Bundeswehr brass deliberately kicking the thing to the curb, but the basic facts seem legit: 18 vehicles out over the course of eight days at the range from a variety of causes, both mechanical and (much more so) electronic, up to a cable fire. And this despite industry personnel allegedly having been on site, too.

There is talk of "challenging conditions" during the stay, but a week or two at the range in sub-zero temperatures can't be worse than winter in the Baltic woods where the rubber would be likely to hit the road in earnest. It's not a singular example of failure for an AFV project - see the problems with Ajax - but that doesn't make it any better. I think it's the original bullshit requirements for an air-deployable IFV followed by years of tinkering with "improvements" on the fly coming home to roost. Starting with the unmanned turret, developed by a different maker than the hull, upgraded with new sensors, Spike etc. before the first vehicles were even operational, I cud go on nad on.

[JWB]

Puma tank failure is 'heavy setback' for Germany - defence ministry (msn.com)

[Markus Becker]

5 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Defense Minister Lambrecht has reportedly suspended procurement of the recently-authorized second Puma lot. Looks like Marder will fill in for VJTF, too.

The unwillingness to export the 100 Marders the industry owns suddenly makes sense. 

[seahawk]

And Lambrecht will probably totally be okay with not buying any new tank.

It is not as if there are no other options - Lynx.

[Markus Becker]

And now for something different but the same:

2/3 of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 are not operational. 

https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/nur-jede-dritte-panzerhaubitze-2000-laut-bericht-einsatzbereit-100.html

[Ssnake]

The multi-decadal general lack of spare parts got to show some results, eventually. Not too long ago 100% of the sub flotilla was down.

[BansheeOne]

2 hours ago, seahawk said:

And Lambrecht will probably totally be okay with not buying any new tank.

It is not as if there are no other options - Lynx.

Though honestly, Lynx is another rather fresh design which, while now being built for Hungary, may yet show its own teething problems. Either way, we're stuck with 350 Pumas for the time being, and it will be years at best before they can be replaced with anything new - be it Lynx, tracked or wheeled IFV Boxer, or CV90 as some suggest for a proven design. At this point, we might as well restart Marder production with another evolutionary rather than revolutionary upgrade, as it looks like that's what we'll be using for at least the rest of this decade anyway ...

[Huba]

41 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

And now for something different but the same:

2/3 of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 are not operational. 

https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/nur-jede-dritte-panzerhaubitze-2000-laut-bericht-einsatzbereit-100.html

Playing a devil's advocate here, but isn't at least part of the issues regarding the DE equipment not being operational coming from the peacetime definition being used (there are no known defects vs it drives and fires, but has a broken light) ? IIRC this was at least partially the reason for EF2000 fleet being reported as almost unflyable. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Huba

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, BansheeOne said:

Though honestly, Lynx is another rather fresh design which, while now being built for Hungary, may yet show its own teething problems. Either way, we're stuck with 350 Pumas for the time being, and it will be years at best before they can be replaced with anything new - be it Lynx, tracked or wheeled IFV Boxer, or CV90 as some suggest for a proven design. At this point, we might as well restart Marder production with another evolutionary rather than revolutionary upgrade, as it looks like that's what we'll be using for at least the rest of this decade anyway ...

New Marders would probably not do much better, at least if asked to fill the same requirements as the Puma. What would make sense is to really plan another evolutionary up-grade of the Marder fleet (including the 100 in the hands of the industry). Not to replace the Puma, but to give the Puma time to mature and to keep those Marders in storage till 2050-2060 as a reserve.

And for the Puma it is time to really test it and work out the real problems. It is also time to finally buy spare parts like we used to in the Cold War.

[Ssnake]

5 hours ago, seahawk said:

And for the Puma it is time to really test it and work out the real problems. It is also time to finally buy spare parts like we used to in the Cold War.

No argument about the latter, but the Puma is in service since 2010. How much more time should it be given to mature? It's about as ripe as sticky, gooey, semi-liquid Harzer cheese.

[seahawk]

16 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

No argument about the latter, but the Puma is in service since 2010. How much more time should it be given to mature? It's about as ripe as sticky, gooey, semi-liquid Harzer cheese.

Is it? This was the first prototype. In 2015 deliveries started of the early version that came with out MELLS. This was later upgrade to include MELLS and a small number of vehicles were than upgraded to VJTF standard in 2021/2022. Each time the requirements changed as well. 

[R011]

7 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

 At this point, we might as well restart Marder production with another evolutionary rather than revolutionary upgrade, as it looks like that's what we'll be using for at least the rest of this decade anyway ...

I can think of a lot worse ideas.  Not to get too Sparky here, but there hasn't been that much progress in automotive technology that some Cold War kit can't be as effective, if upgraded, as brand new designs.  The M1 Abrams is a case in point.  The new American M113 replacement is a turretless Bradley.

[kokovi]

Also closing down large chunks of your own maintenance units and outsourcing maintenance to HIL and SKB was probably not so bright.

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, kokovi said:

Also closing down large chunks of your own maintenance units and outsourcing maintenance to HIL and SKB was probably not so bright.

That is not the problem, it is if you pay them for service on demand. Which means a broken vehicle comes in, the fault is analysed, the needed replacement parts are ordered, the vehicle stays out of service till they arrive and are installed. 

[Ssnake]

16 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

At this point, we might as well restart Marder production with another evolutionary rather than revolutionary upgrade, 

I originally dismissed this as sarcasm. It wouldn't work - partly because the tools are no longer there, but primarily because the Marder is based on a workplace safety certificate based on 1960s standards. New vehicles, whichever way they're built, need to meet today's workplace standards. Arguably this is part of what's currently killing the Puma, or at least making it both extremely costly and possibly overly complicated. Our workplace safety regulations are becoming crippling.

[seahawk]

Not crippling for the reliability maybye, but crippling for the operational use. An APC that can not drive off before the rear ramp is fully closed so that the particulate pollution in the air does not exceed the limits for pregnant persons able to have children is. 

[BansheeOne]

It was only mostly sarcastic. I wasn't aware of the specific obstacles, but clear that the advantage of getting any new-built Marders in service would have been at best negligible compared to buying Lynx or CV90, even without goldplating them to national specifications. I fear there's no way around trying to make Puma work at least moderately well. HS 30 soldiered on until finally replaced by Marder, too.

[kokovi]

12 hours ago, seahawk said:

That is not the problem, it is if you pay them for service on demand. Which means a broken vehicle comes in, the fault is analysed, the needed replacement parts are ordered, the vehicle stays out of service till they arrive and are installed. 

Which will probably not work when deploying the Puma for what it was designed, mobile armoured warfare. In a peer or near peer scenario, not enough infantry will be available to guard the civilian technicians.