German Armed Forces reduced to 150 000?

[DB]

This all sounds horribly familiar.

[seahawk]

The biggest problem is how the tender process has to work.

There simply no room for a free decision by the buyer. If I have a contract for 20 Million Euro and I have 3 bids,

20.000.001, 20.000.000 and 19.999.999, the cheapest one wins.

Imho the process really needs an option for cases when there is a small difference in price(5%) to add an interview with each bidder and allow the buyer to decide his preferred bidder based on the interviews.

[Ssnake]

"The most economical solution" must be chosen. That doesn't have to be the cheapest... but usually is, yes, and going cheap short term usually incurs higher costs long term, but everybody knows that of course.

Including, presumably, the law-making politicians. You don't win votes with reasonable, pragmatic laws. That's on the voters, however.

I think for the last two decades at least sufficiently many politicians didn't want a functioning military in Germany. Just enough so that you could pretend to have an expeditionary force, but nothing too serious. Because if you do, pressure mounts to actually use it.

[seahawk]

In my experience a lot of institutional experience is lost with the current practice. I know exactly which firms are likely to file many supplementary claims and which are more likely to file less. I also know which firms are likely to deliver on time and which are likely to miss the deadline. Yet, as long as one is even 1 Euro cheaper, this experience does not count. And we all know that the limits for excluding a firm are very high.

Imho we really need to get back to an easy process for choosing the preferred bidder if the bids are close to each other. (less than 3-5% difference)

[DB]

We've (UK) tried to do this by assigning a scoring system that includes subjective measures of credibility to the bidder, but in practice this only eliminates companies that are trying to break into the defence industry. the old "faithful" companies do fall out of favour (BAE Systems did for quite a while, also reinforced by the RAF's obsession with US equipment).

[TrustMe]

The UK funded 10% of the R&D cost of the F35. In return the UK got 15% of the work share of the aircraft. This over 20 years project has resulted in UK (and mainly BAe) becoming heavily tied into the US defence industrial complex to the point that the majority of the profits for BAe comes from the US.

This has resulted in the reinforced by the RAF's obsession with US equipment status quo. 

I don't see this changing anytime soon.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

I dont think thats entirely fair, they are very interested in the Multinational Tempest, which doesnt seem to have much if any US military share in it. That Turkey is a partner is the best indicator of that, they were blocked from participation in F35. And of course they are losing the C130, in preference to buying more A400's.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Stuart Galbraith

[TrustMe]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I dont think thats entirely fair, they are very interested in the Multinational Tempest, which doesnt seem to have much if any US military share in it. That Turkey is a partner is the best indicator of that, they were blocked from participation in F35. And of course they are losing the C130, in preference to buying more A400's.

I have a funny feeling that the Tempest will never fly 😐 The US offered us F22's argeubly better than the Eurofighters by a wide margin.

Edited May 9, 2022 by TrustMe

[DB]

AFAIK the US never offered F22 to anyone.

[TrustMe]

9 hours ago, DB said:

AFAIK the US never offered F22 to anyone.

That's not true. The US offered us the chance to join the R&D phase of the F22, but we declined. Later on the US congress made purchases of F22 illegal to other countries including the UK.

On a side note the US also offered us the F117, but that was disregarded due to it being a niche role aircraft.

[DB]

I've never seen *any* sources stating either of those things to be true (except the prohibition on F22 exports. This is a "citation please" moment, if you will.

[TrustMe]

I read it on www.PPRUNE.com years ago but I can't provide a link as I don't remember the name of the thread.

If I remember right, one of the reasons why the EF2000 was chosen over the F22 was the unit price per aircraft was significantly cheaper (even back then), plus military industrial base and technical things like never been used in combat thus it would be a technical surprise to enemies and having an in service date sooner than the F22 etc ...

As we all know the Tornado F3 was a pile of shit and was in dire need of replacement.

Edited May 12, 2022 by TrustMe

[BansheeOne]

On 3/14/2022 at 8:04 PM, BansheeOne said:

Second batch of Puma seems a go.

 

On 2/6/2022 at 11:06 AM, BansheeOne said:

The three divisions will lead eight German brigades - five mechanized, one mountain, one airborne, and the German contingent to the French-German Brigade built up to a full brigade of its own (whether that spells the end of the current brigade which has only ever been a political token never deployed as such remains to be seen). It would be the likely candidate for recent suggestions of a true medium brigade with operational self-deployment capability to be implemented.

One proposed structure for the latter showed two Jäger (Boxer) battalions and two more labeled "wheeled grenadiers", supposedly mounted on actual wheeled IFVs rather than just having some 30-mm/Spike-armed fire support Boxers as Wiesel replacements in their heavy companies per current plans. 

Latest reports suggest that rather than the 292 Pumas so far planned in the second batch, the Heer wants only 100, and the balance to be replaced by Boxer IFVs. That would mean two current Panzergrenadier battalions change from the tracked to the wheeled role. Not sure how that would fit into the intended seven-brigade (excluding airborne) organization, wich now includes seven Panzer battalions (one of which assigned to NL 43rd Mechanized Brigade), nine active and two inactive Panzergrenadier battalions, four-and-a-half active and one inactive Jäger plus three Gebirgsjäger battalions for a total of 27-1 if filled out.

[Stuart Galbraith]

On 5/12/2022 at 10:36 AM, TrustMe said:

That's not true. The US offered us the chance to join the R&D phase of the F22, but we declined. Later on the US congress made purchases of F22 illegal to other countries including the UK.

On a side note the US also offered us the F117, but that was disregarded due to it being a niche role aircraft.

They offered us access to F117.I dont think we bought it, only because we couldnt afford it.

Ive never heard of them offering access to the F22. Not saying you are wrong of course, just that ive never heard of it.

As for banning foreign purchases of F22, congress ensured there would never be any more built. Now they have to buy mroe F15's.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

 

Latest reports suggest that rather than the 292 Pumas so far planned in the second batch, the Heer wants only 100, and the balance to be replaced by Boxer IFVs. That would mean two current Panzergrenadier battalions change from the tracked to the wheeled role. Not sure how that would fit into the intended seven-brigade (excluding airborne) organization, wich now includes seven Panzer battalions (one of which assigned to NL 43rd Mechanized Brigade), nine active and two inactive Panzergrenadier battalions, four-and-a-half active and one inactive Jäger plus three Gebirgsjäger battalions for a total of 27-1 if filled out.

Are any of the Boxers you have bought, or projected to buy, going to have an autocannon? That seems to be the main sticking point of the British Army reroling from Armoured Infantry to Mechanised Infantry. They are looking at an AC equippd version, but not decided upon any.

[BansheeOne]

The Boxers intended to replace the Wiesel as FSVs in the heavy companies of infantry battalions already equipped with the plain Boxer APC variant (Jäger and one Gebirgsjäger battalion) will have the Lance 2.0 turret with 30 mm gun and Eurospike launchers. It's not quite clear yet whether the proper IFV variant now talked about will have the same, or the unmanned Puma turret for commonality within the Panzergrenadier branch; though introduction is stated to be quicker with the former, as the combination will only have to be certified once.

I understood the British Boxer IFVs will be armed with the 40 mm CTA.

[seahawk]

21 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

 

Latest reports suggest that rather than the 292 Pumas so far planned in the second batch, the Heer wants only 100, and the balance to be replaced by Boxer IFVs. That would mean two current Panzergrenadier battalions change from the tracked to the wheeled role. Not sure how that would fit into the intended seven-brigade (excluding airborne) organization, wich now includes seven Panzer battalions (one of which assigned to NL 43rd Mechanized Brigade), nine active and two inactive Panzergrenadier battalions, four-and-a-half active and one inactive Jäger plus three Gebirgsjäger battalions for a total of 27-1 if filled out.

That makes a lot of sense. Boxer is really good and probably much cheaper to buy and run.

[BansheeOne]

Regarding the pitfalls of German procurement, a law deliberated in cabinet this week would potentially speed up processes considerably. It would reduce possibilities for complaints after decisions, emphasize the interests of the Bundeswehr for acquisitions within multinational frameworks for easier waivers on rules which otherwise apply to such, and abolish a stipulation that medium businesses have to be preferred in tenders, and acquisitions must be made in several lots.

[kokovi]

17 hours ago, seahawk said:

That makes a lot of sense. Boxer is really good and probably much cheaper to buy and run.

I think this whole medium forces thing is BS for Germany. Instead, we should be well prepared to deploy heavy forces quickly by rail transport to Eastern Europe. 

[BansheeOne]

So after some partisan games, the government coalition and the Conservatives have agreed on the 100 billion special funds. There is however cautioning that the two-percent target might not be met every year, since the annual GDP is only established in retrospect, and deliveries to spend the equivalent total money on may not be available each of the next years.

Quote

Germany: Coalition government, CDU agree €100 billion military boost

5h ago

The center-right opposition has backed the German government's plans to massively increase military spending. The plan was sparked by the war in Ukraine and will help the country meet its NATO commitments.

Germany's coalition government and the conservative CDU/CSU alliance on Sunday agreed on the details of a €100 billion ($107 billion) boost to the country's military spending.

After more than three hours of talks in Berlin, both sides finalized the plan to create a special fund for the armed forces.

The proposal needed a two-thirds majority in both parliamentary chambers, so Chancellor Olaf Scholz sought pre-approval from the center-right opposition parties.

The massive investment in the German armed forces was sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

What has been agreed?

A statement from the Finance Ministry published by news agencies said:

- Germany's Basic Law — the country's constitution — will be amended to allow the creation of a new fund that will help strengthen the country's defense capability

- A new separate law will be drafted, setting out details of the fund and the financing of the Bundeswehr (armed forces)

- An initiative to speed up the procurement of weapons and other military requirements will be launched immediately

- The additional spending will be solely for the benefit of the Bundeswehr and will be financed entirely by new loans

- According to current estimates, the special fund could last until the end of 2026

- After the special fund is drawn down, the government plans to continue to provide the finances necessary to meet NATO capability goals that are relevant at the time

- At the request of the climate-friendly Green Party, the government will also present a strategy for strengthening Germany's cybersecurity, the civil defense and help for overseas partners, paid for out of the federal budget

"Together, we are ensuring that the Bundeswehr will be strengthened in the coming years with €100 billion in additional investment," the joint statement said.

"In doing so, the so-called NATO 2% target [of GDP on military spending] will be achieved on a multi-year average."

[...]

https://m.dw.com/en/germany-coalition-government-cdu-agree-100-billion-military-boost/a-61969742

[TrustMe]

I guess the manpower side of the German army will also increase. Will Germany have to introduce conscription to fill the requirements?

[BansheeOne]

The intended manpower goal for the 2031 eight-brigade army is 203,000 vs. 184,000 now. There's some worry that it's actually sewn a little tight, but even then it won't be a delta you need to introduce conscription for; in fact it's so small that service would need to be limited in number of recruits (unlikely since the German penchant for equal burdens was what lead to the demise of the draft in the first place, as noted a couple pages back) or duration to the point you would actually degrade effectiveness by having staff tied up in training recruits to low levels over and over again. For illustration, before conscription was suspended the Bundeswehr last was 250,000 strong, of which 20 percent were conscripts serving just ten months.

There is some hope that increased attractivity of service and sense of purpose with current events will lead to higher recruiting to fill at least part of the gap. Otherwise, with last year's introduction of an obligatory six-year term of recall after separation, some reserves are being built up to fill out the active force.

[BansheeOne]

Reports on intended distribution of the 100 billion:

- 40.9 billion for air systems: F-35, ECR Eurofighter, FCAS, P-8, CH-47F (still a "probably"), a lot more H145M LUHs, arming the Heron TP UAVs, a gamut of ground-based air defense against anything from drones to missiles, the TWISTER space-based early warning system, various other space surveillance, radars and comms.

- 20.7 billion for C4: Digitalization of Land-Based Operations (DLBO), a Tactical Wide Area Network (TAWAN), extending SATCOMBw, a German Mission Network for deployments abroad, a data center network, more PRC-117G off the shelf.

- 19.3 billion for naval systems: F126, more K130, U212CD, multi-purpose combat boats for the Seebataillon, new RHIBs, IDAS sub-to-air missiles, Future Naval Strike Missile, SONIX underwater detection system.

- 16.6 billion for land systems: MGCS,  upgrading Puma to VJTF standard, replacement for remaining Marders (see upthread for possible Puma/Boxer mix), Boxer FSV, successor for remaining Fuchs APCs (more Boxers, or something else?), successors for Wiesel and Wolf in their airborne role jointly with the Netherlands, and for BV 206 jointly with the Brits, Dutch and Swedes, new mobile field hospitals.

- Two billion for new clothing and personal equipment (already underway).

- Half a billion for AI research and development, particularly for navigation under NAVWAR conditions and surveillance of big areas.

The restocking of ammunition that has been quoted at 20 billion is reportedly to be paid from the regular budget, as will be further development of FCAS and MGCS with France beyond the sums allocated from the special funds.

[BansheeOne]

Defense funds authorized by the Bundestag 593:80, and 567:96 for putting it into the constitution with that specific purpose. There's a rumor going round that the P-8 purchase will be increased from five to twelve, too; entirely believable, since five would be such a small fleet you might as well not bother.

[Junior FO]

...

Edited September 22 by Junior FO