German Armed Forces reduced to 150 000?

[John T]

On 2/27/2022 at 7:19 PM, BansheeOne said:

No nuclear weapons, no overseas bases, no global power projection capabilities. National and alliance defense (mostly identical) was all there was.

And no professional army thus invisible economical cost of conscription,  both diminishing alternative tax revenue and every male invested a year of their lives to train to die for their country.

It's not on the balance sheet.

(if we talk cold war)

Edited March 27, 2022 by John T
(if we talk cold war)

[BansheeOne]

The sale of Arrow 3 to Germany has reportedly been okayed by both Israel and the US which contributed some of the tech, though the actual decision to procure has not been made yet.

Meanwhile the gap-filling seems to start with the important mundane; 2.36 billion are to be spent on equipping every swinging dick (and pair of tits) with the planned next-generation battle raffle including body armor, helmets, backpacks and clothing over the next four years even before parliament gets around to authorize it. By previous plans, about a quarter of the forces would have been equipped within that timeframe. Will be interesting to see whether the Bundestag will play along, or raise merry Hell for being overridden.

[TrustMe]

Or if politicians with their limited foresight will do it in 4 years time.

[lucklucky]

It seems Germany will finally arm their Heron drones with missiles. 140 to be procured including 60 for training. I suppose this will be a one of the Spike versions.

[Junior FO]

...

Edited September 22 by Junior FO

[Ssnake]

There's even a discussion to sell 100 or more decommissioned Marder IFVs to Ukraine.

[BansheeOne]

Another air defense system: IRIS-T SLM has long been suggested to complement Patriot in the Luftwaffe, initially as a low-cost secondary missile to PAC-3 within MEADS, which however seems to have died from procrastination. With recent events, it appears slated for procurement anyway as the government asked domestic industry for anything that could be brought into service quickly, if necessary by redirecting orders from foreign governments. Diehl Defence and Hensoldt have now announced that a configuration developed for a "Mediterranean" customer could be delivered from the third quarter of this year if the decision is made, possibly supplemented by elements of the shorter-ranged SLS system variant already in Swedish service.

Meanwhile on the Heer side the plan seems to be rebuilding mobile air defense within the artillery battalions, which are to be increased from four to nine (so probably one for each of the five mechanized, the Gebirgsjäger and the future medium brigade planned to be built up from the German contingent of the French-German Brigade, plus two divisional ones). Oerlikon Skyranger on Boxer has been suggested; Rheinmetall recently demonstrated a variant combining a 30 mm gun with missiles and a high-energy laser, which would provide for better ammo commonality than the 35 mm version.

Edited April 7, 2022 by BansheeOne

[seahawk]

And now we know that more for the armed forces was just a misunderstanding.

It is not 2% + 100 billion, it is 1,4% + 100/5 billion = roughly 2%.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/zeitenwende-fuer-die-bundeswehr-scholz-hat-seine-zusagen-schon-wieder-einkassiert/28239210.html

And the 100 billion are also to be used for civil protection and the feminist foreign policy as well as cultural initiatives.

Edited April 9, 2022 by seahawk

[BansheeOne]

In fairness, that commentary assumes a worst-case scenario where everyone who has voiced some desire to get a piece of the cake has their wishes granted, and everyone who demands the special funds to be enshrined in the constitution for dedicated use and defense spending to be permanently set at a minimum two-percent share of GDP fails. The demand from within the Greens to use part of it for developmental and humanitarian aid is already off the table, for example. Whether the Conservatives risk failure by emphasing their role as an opposition party remains to be seen.

I can live with the idea that the special funds top up the regular defense budget to the annual two-percent mark, though obviously I would have preferred it to come on top; which is how everyone seems to have understood Scholz when he made the announcement, and it's not really clear yet which way it will turn out. Then again, three months ago everyone would have been either ecstatic or mortified at the news that the two-percent mark will be implemented this year rather than in 2031, maybe.

On 4/5/2022 at 7:21 PM, BansheeOne said:

Meanwhile the gap-filling seems to start with the important mundane; 2.36 billion are to be spent on equipping every swinging dick (and pair of tits) with the planned next-generation battle raffle including body armor, helmets, backpacks and clothing over the next four years even before parliament gets around to authorize it. By previous plans, about a quarter of the forces would have been equipped within that timeframe. Will be interesting to see whether the Bundestag will play along, or raise merry Hell for being overridden.

The budget committee actually agreed to this, so political sensibilities have not yet overriden the current sense of urgency.

[DB]

More importantly, although more strategic than the distinctly tactical "throw money at everyone for more guns", what is Germany doing to eliminate dependence on Russian petroleum/gas products, aside from relying on their neighbours building nuclear plant that can export more electricity?

[Ssnake]

Apparently the government is doubling down on Green energy and is about to drastically curb the legal tools for NIMBY environmentalists to prevent windmill park constructions (these now being classified as "in the overwhelming public interest"). Of course, those were the same legal tools that they helped building in the past decades for their special interest groups; that bump you heard was them being thrown under the red-green bus. More subsidies for low-energy houses (which will of course result in raising prices for buildings and apartments leading to higher rents which, oh noes!, hit low income people (women, minorities) hardest (so I guess they will need more housing subsidies).

Eventually the wheels will fall off the cart, but at this point I'm so numbed, I just watch and think of bigger UPSs for my computers. May happen soon if the CDU is successful with their Normenkontrollklage at the Constitutional Court about the 60BN extra credit that the new government decided to re-appropriate from Covid funds to a new Climate funds, because fighting climate obviously means fighting covid.

Ach, whom are we kidding here, 

Ve wants ze money!

[WRW]

On 4/7/2022 at 9:36 PM, BansheeOne said:

Another air defense system: IRIS-T SLM has long been suggested to complement Patriot in the Luftwaffe, initially as a low-cost secondary missile to PAC-3 within MEADS, which however seems to have died from procrastination. With recent events, it appears slated for procurement anyway as the government asked domestic industry for anything that could be brought into service quickly, if necessary by redirecting orders from foreign governments. Diehl Defence and Hensoldt have now announced that a configuration developed for a "Mediterranean" customer could be delivered from the third quarter of this year if the decision is made, possibly supplemented by elements of the shorter-ranged SLS system variant already in Swedish service.

Meanwhile on the Heer side the plan seems to be rebuilding mobile air defense within the artillery battalions, which are to be increased from four to nine (so probably one for each of the five mechanized, the Gebirgsjäger and the future medium brigade planned to be built up from the German contingent of the French-German Brigade, plus two divisional ones). Oerlikon Skyranger on Boxer has been suggested; Rheinmetall recently demonstrated a variant combining a 30 mm gun with missiles and a high-energy laser, which would provide for better ammo commonality than the 35 mm version.

What is the theoretical AD structure - AB batteries within artillery battalions?

[BansheeOne]

No details about organization and equipment at this point. Information is based on a talk by the Inspector of the Heer (German).

[BansheeOne]

The selection for the future heavy transport helicopter is reported to be finally made on 26/27 April. There is a lot of current advertizing by the Lockheed-Rheinmetall team that the CH-53K can be delivered out of the ongoing production for the USMC from 2025, that it already has a certified air refueling system per German requirements while the CH-47F would first have to be fitted with the one from the G variant, and that it can auto-fold to the footprint of the current CH-53G. Not sure if that is preparing for the choice expected to go their way or a last-minute attempt to revert a decision for the Chinook due to considerations of NATO fleet synergy effects, like with the F-35. The just-established Boeing/Airbus team is rather quiet by comparison.

Edited April 14, 2022 by BansheeOne

[seahawk]

Yes, even the rumour mill is a bit strange at the moment. You hear

"CH-47 because it is cheaper and we achieve commonality"

"CH-53 because it is more capable and NATO gets another type of heavy lift helicopter in case there is a problem with the CH-47"

and both make sense.

[BansheeOne]

Also, a minor element that has been in the making for some time: The Bundeswehr will re-establish a dedicated long range reconnaissance company of 210 personnel, expected to be operational by 2025 due to selection and training standards. During the Cold War, there was one such company in each of the three army corps; from 1996, they were transformed into one Lehrkompanie and one SF reconnaissance company under the KSK.

The latter was eventually turned into another full-on commando company, the former disbanded in 2015 - in typical fashion just before the value of the capability in the reorientation towards national and alliance defense was rediscovered. Currently, only one platoon remains in each of the two airborne regiments, which will form the base for the new company. The decision was actually made a year ago already as part of the planning to provide a full corps to NATO by 2031, but held up by a general review of the future Bundeswehr organisation by the new government.

[Markus Becker]

On 4/10/2022 at 3:20 AM, DB said:

More importantly, although more strategic than the distinctly tactical "throw money at everyone for more guns", what is Germany doing to eliminate dependence on Russian petroleum/gas products, aside from relying on their neighbours building nuclear plant that can export more electricity?

 

Not using nuclear energy for starters because that is still considered worse than importing from Russia. 

Building more wind mills will most likely run afoul of EU environmental regulations, sometimes the Greens also pushed in the past but something they can't throw unser the bus. 

[Ssnake]

2 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

something they can't throw under the bus. 

They already have. The new law from Habeck stipulates that renewable energy constructions, such as new wind farms, are "in the overwhelming public interest". That will significantly alter all coming court rulings in favor of the windmills. Maybe you didn't hear the thump and felt the car rocking.

[Markus Becker]

He wants to but even if all the other departments agree with his plan, this has zero effect on EU level regulations. 

PS: What Habeck has put forward is a proposal of a bill. The entire cabinet hasn't even given it the ok yet.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Markus Becker

[BansheeOne]

On 4/14/2022 at 4:40 PM, seahawk said:

Yes, even the rumour mill is a bit strange at the moment. You hear

"CH-47 because it is cheaper and we achieve commonality"

"CH-53 because it is more capable and NATO gets another type of heavy lift helicopter in case there is a problem with the CH-47"

and both make sense.

Tabloid "Bild am Sonntag" reports the Chinook has been chosen due to lower cost and NATO commonality; the five billion earmarked for the purchase will pay for 60 CH-47F vs. 40 CH-53K. As reasonable as any argument, though it's unclear to me right now whether that includes the money for fitting them for air refueling. Delivery from 2025/26 at the earliest.

[seahawk]

If you get 50% more frames for the same price, it would be a prudent decision.

[BansheeOne]

On 7/13/2021 at 12:14 PM, BansheeOne said:

Effective 1 August, the regional security and support companies will be renamed good old-fashioned Heimatschutzkompanien, staffed in part by volunteers under the new scheme. The number is planned to rise from 30 to 42 until 2025, subordinated to five territorial defense regiments in Bavaria, Berlin, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and North Rhine-Westphalia.

That's actually not too far from my idea two years ago. But then I also see on this occasion that BG Andreas Henne, defense advisor to the CDU/CSU Bundestag group as an LTC on leave when I worked there, has risen to Deputy Commander Territorial Missions, so the similarity in thought is probably not too surprising. 

Heimatschutzregiment 1 in Bavaria was officially commissioned with seven companies yesterday. I guess the planned regiment under Territorial Command Schleswig-Holstein will lead the two companies in that state, one in Hamburg and one in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (two more planned here) for a total of four building up to six; Berlin the remaining current four East German ones (one in each state, with another planned in Brandenburg and Saxony-Anhalt each), again for a total of four to six; North Rhine-Westphalia the three each there and in Lower Saxony plus one in Bremen for a total of seven; Hesse the two there, one each in Rhineland-Palatinate (another planned) and the Saarland, and three (another one planned) in Baden-Württemberg for a total of seven to nine.

That would leave another seven companies to be raised for the planned total of 42. I could definitely see another two in the North Rhine-Westphalia area, Germany's most populous state, and the rest spread around the other regiments to bring each to seven to nine.

[Angrybk]

NYTImes continuing to do interesting in-depth coverage of German defense issues (it might be all bullshit, I have no idea, but still good reading!) https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/business/germany-military-ukraine-russia.html

 

Quote

And often Germany’s procurement system is agonizingly slow. Delivery of a new assault rifle manufactured by Heckler & Koch, which also supplies the U.S. Marine Corps, is seven years behind schedule because of a German law that allows the losing bidder for a defense contract to challenge the decision in court.

Not long after Mr. Scholz announced the increase in spending, the Defense Ministry summoned executives of major contractors to Berlin. One of the messages: Stop suing one another and work as a team, according to three people with knowledge of the meeting. The Defense Ministry declined to comment.

 

[Ssnake]

That meeting was also reported by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and it seems credible. 

30 minutes ago, Angrybk said:

And often Germany’s procurement system is agonizingly slow. Delivery of a new assault rifle manufactured by Heckler & Koch, which also supplies the U.S. Marine Corps, is seven years behind schedule because of a German law that allows the losing bidder for a defense contract to challenge the decision in court.

Well, if the USAF tanker program shows us anything, that option also exists in the US, and is being used for leverage. The whole "Haenel vs Heckler & Koch" story has been extensively covered on this grate sight, if not this very thread. There's a bit more to the story than just Bo-hoo, we didn't win a tender, let's sue everybody!

But I suppose you already suspected that. TLDR, H&K asserts copyright infringement in Haenel's design. BS, says Haenel, and "You shouldn't have had that patent in the first place".

 

Personally, while I have no doubt that public procurement law itself has room for improvement, I believe that the real problems lie elsewhere. FEX, a dearth of lawyers and engineers willing to work for the salary of a public servant to negotiate the procurement contracts with Big Defense. The BAAInBw procurement office (yes, German language is bestest language, has even the longest acronyms!*) may have, say, 40 lawyers in total. If 36 of them are tied down by the procurement of a frigate, the remaining four have to handle everything else - airforce, and army, mind you; everything.

Maybe the numbers are bogus, but it's what I heard, from people I deem somewhat trustworthy. From 1990 to 2015, whenever the Bundeswehr underwent another round of trimming, they looked at the number of civil servants that could be slashed, so they would keep the army as potent as possible. Reasonable short-term, not so great if it becomes The policy for more than two decades for reasons now all to obvious. Not that some people didn't warn about this exact outcome as early as 1995, but our defense ministers and chancellors had other priorities. Like schmoozing with Putin, promoting their lack of imagination as The Objective Truth ("War in Europe is unthinkable!"), spending billions and billions on buying votes. Two generations of politicians of all parties that were in government during that period are guilty of that.

 

*) yes, RkReÜAÜG is the acronym for our famous Rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsaufgabenübertragungsgesetz; sadly, the law is no longer required and had been replaced by a horrible anglicist multi-word contraption. Kraftfahrzeughaftpflichtversicherung is nice but no adequate substitute.

[Angrybk]

12 hours ago, Ssnake said:

That meeting was also reported by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and it seems credible. 

Well, if the USAF tanker program shows us anything, that option also exists in the US, and is being used for leverage. The whole "Haenel vs Heckler & Koch" story has been extensively covered on this grate sight, if not this very thread. There's a bit more to the story than just Bo-hoo, we didn't win a tender, let's sue everybody!

But I suppose you already suspected that. TLDR, H&K asserts copyright infringement in Haenel's design. BS, says Haenel, and "You shouldn't have had that patent in the first place".

 

Personally, while I have no doubt that public procurement law itself has room for improvement, I believe that the real problems lie elsewhere. FEX, a dearth of lawyers and engineers willing to work for the salary of a public servant to negotiate the procurement contracts with Big Defense. The BAAInBw procurement office (yes, German language is bestest language, has even the longest acronyms!*) may have, say, 40 lawyers in total. If 36 of them are tied down by the procurement of a frigate, the remaining four have to handle everything else - airforce, and army, mind you; everything.

Maybe the numbers are bogus, but it's what I heard, from people I deem somewhat trustworthy. From 1990 to 2015, whenever the Bundeswehr underwent another round of trimming, they looked at the number of civil servants that could be slashed, so they would keep the army as potent as possible. Reasonable short-term, not so great if it becomes The policy for more than two decades for reasons now all to obvious. Not that some people didn't warn about this exact outcome as early as 1995, but our defense ministers and chancellors had other priorities. Like schmoozing with Putin, promoting their lack of imagination as The Objective Truth ("War in Europe is unthinkable!"), spending billions and billions on buying votes. Two generations of politicians of all parties that were in government during that period are guilty of that.

 

*) yes, RkReÜAÜG is the acronym for our famous Rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsaufgabenübertragungsgesetz; sadly, the law is no longer required and had been replaced by a horrible anglicist multi-word contraption. Kraftfahrzeughaftpflichtversicherung is nice but no adequate substitute.

Very informative, thanks!