German Armed Forces reduced to 150 000?

[TrustMe]

How much as a percentage of GDP was West Germany spending during the cold war?  The UK spent around 5% by the early 1980's.

[seahawk]

https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/503294/493c4e3a31e0705bd3b62a77d449bc76/wd-4-025-17-pdf-data.pdf

Page 6

[TrustMe]

Thanks SH.

It's interesting that West Germany wasn't spending as much as say the UK, France or the US.

[BansheeOne]

No nuclear weapons, no overseas bases, no global power projection capabilities. National and alliance defense (mostly identical) was all there was.

[seahawk]

And different standards on what counts as part of the armed forces. The Bundesgrenzschutz for example did not count, while similar organisations in France, Italy or Spain did count.

[rohala]

NATO has tables with defense expenditures and as far as I know they try to account the same way for all nations so the figures can be compared. For the '70s and '80s you can find a table here (I took it from the press release of 1989 -you can find data for all periods up to now).

 

[BansheeOne]

Of course while the Bundeswehr procurement agency is already compiling wishlists - second batch of Pumas to equip the remaining four Panzergrenadier battalions still stuck with Marder, upgrading the first batch to the standard only 40 have been brought to for VJTF 2023, F-35s, ECR Eurofighters, UAVs, filling ammunition stocks for 20 billion Euro alone, etc. - all the financial increases all still have to be authorized by the Bundestag, and possibly by the Bundesrat too if you want to enshrine the special funds of 100 billion in the constitution so that the next government doesn't recycle it to pay pensions or something.

The Conservatives have already stated they're not hot on new debts to finance that (though they might just want to exact some political quid pro quo). Also the measures seem to have been not well-communicated to the Greens in advance, and there is considerable irritation within the party. So let's see were we are two months from now when budget deliberations are on and the war may already be over one way or the other.

[BansheeOne]

Speaking of wishlists:

Quote

A New Era in Berlin

Germany Goes Big on Defense Spending

For years, Germany has starved its military of money. But on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced massive new defense spending. DER SPIEGEL has learned what the money will be used for.

By Matthias Gebauer und Konstantin von Hammerstein

01.03.2022, 14.28 Uhr

Whenever things get serious, the chief of defense, Germany’s senior-most military officer, calls a meeting of the Military Command Council, the most powerful body of Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr. The most important generals and admirals in the country then gather in a bug-proof room at the Defense Ministry in Berlin for a face-to-face.

Such a meeting was called for Monday afternoon, and this time, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht, a member of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), joined the group as a guest. It was a clear sign that she and her top generals had some difficult decisions to make.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completely upended the fundamental constants of German security policy. German troops are being rapidly sent to Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. At the same time, six German warships have set off to strengthen the alliance’s northern flank.

And since Sunday, the country’s military leadership finds itself facing a problem that they didn’t expect at all. The country’s defense forces, which have struggled for years to make ends meet, suddenly has money. A lot of money.

In his speech on Sunday to a special session of German parliament, Scholz announced emergency funding of the German military to the tune of 100 billion euros while also pledging to boost defense spending to above 2 percent of gross national product.

The idea of dumping a significant quantity of money into Germany’s ailing armed forces has been around for some time. Several months ago, military planners and Defense Ministry bean counters developed a number of confidential briefs for distribution among political party leaders who were involved in negotiation Germany’s governing coalition at the time.

It was an almost desperate attempt to open the new coalition’s eyes to the deep problems facing the Bundeswehr. Not that anyone in the ministry thought the move would actually work. It seemed merely like something that needed to be done despite the almost certainty of failure.

But Russia’s aggression has now completely reversed years of German thinking about its military. In order to send a strong security policy message, the Chancellery pulled out all the old briefs. One of those was of particular importance: a confidential, six-page brief from Oct. 26 seems to have been particularly persuasive to Scholz and Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a member of the Free Democrats (FDP), the business-friendly party which is part of Scholz’s coalition government along with the Greens.

DER SPIEGEL has learned that the memo proposed a special fund for the Bundeswehr worth 102 billion euros. The memo argues that complex and expensive defense projects almost always require several years to complete, making it essential that military planners have long-term funding in place.

[...]

The memo also provides a list of projects into which the money is to be invested. Around 34 billion euros would have to be invested in the following multinational defense projects:

- the TWISTER system, designed to improve defenses against supersonic weapons;

- the development of a "combat cloud”;

- the development of strategic air transport capabilities;

- the German-French development of a new air-defense system, a new generation of battle tanks and the Eurodrone;

- a new artillery and munitions system in cooperation with Britain;

- the development of new frigates and landing platforms in cooperation with the Netherlands;

- the development of new submarine technology in cooperation with Norway.

The memo, though, calls for the vast majority of the special defense fund (around 68 billion euros) to flow into large, national defense projects:

- At the top of the priority list is a successor to the ancient Tornado fighters. In his speech on Sunday, Scholz indicated that the current strategy calls for a hybrid solution, essentially taking elements of the modernized Eurofighter and from the new American super-fighter F-35 from Lockheed Martin. This project alone is estimated to cost around 15 billion euros.

- Around 5 billion euros are earmarked for the new heavy transport helicopter. The Bundeswehr’s old CH-53 helicopters from the 1970s have become prohibitively expensive to maintain. A new successor model is to be purchased from the U.S. as quickly as possible. There are two different models, both of which are already available, under consideration.

- Some 20 billion euros must be invested in new munitions. Because the threat level has been low for so long, the Bundeswehr hasn’t been regularly refilling its weapons depots for decades. The result is that there is a severe lack of rockets and artillery shells for tanks, ships and helicopters. If the German military is serious about fulfilling its NATO pledges by 2030, the depots must be urgently restocked.

- Another expensive project is the "Digitization of Land-Based Operations" (D-LBO), which essentially means a revamping of all communications systems. Even today, German troops don’t communicate digitally, with the PRC117 encrypted devices a rarity in the Bundeswehr, generally only issued to special forces like the KSK. The Bundeswehr believes the digitalization of military communications will cost around 3 billion euros.

- Almost 2 billion euros are to be invested in new corvette warships.

- Around 600 million is to be earmarked for the modernization of Patriot air-defense systems.

The above list is far from complete: The memo from Germany’s military planners goes on and on. And it’s not totally certain yet whether all of Germany’s political parties are on the same page. Reports have emerged that the Green Party, one of the SPD’s two junior coalition partners, was unaware of the size of the fund Scholz would propose ahead of his speech and some in the party have voiced concern.

[...]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/budgetary-about-face-germany-goes-big-on-defense-spending-a-4c90635e-5de8-4123-b18a-646b0ac13b04

 

[TrustMe]

That's what I call 'Crash Development'. Will it be to little to late 😐

Edited March 1, 2022 by TrustMe

[Ssnake]

If it all materializes, well, "too little" for what?

"Too late" for what?

 

NATO isn't at war with Russia - at least Russia hasn't started one yet, and hopefully never will (at least our leading politicians woke up to the fact that it might). Even if Germany had started this program right away in 2014, I don't think it would have changed one iota in Putin's determination to conquer Ukraine.

So then it must be asked, to what end would a crash development program started seven years early been "enough" and "on time"?

[BansheeOne]

At least the multinational projects won't enter service before 2030 anyway, and I don't think more money earlier would have accelerated them much if at all. Also in the case of Puma, buying more earlier would have meant having to have all of them worked their kinks out and brought up to "real" combat readiness; supposedly the unsolicited industry offer for the second lot from two weeks ago is actually cheaper per vehicle than the first.

OTOH, some stuff could have been completed by now. There is reportedly an offer for an all-inclusive package worth 42 billion by Rheinmetall with all the Leopard upgrades, Pumas, Boxers, air defense systems, light and heavy transport vehicles, CH-53K (as local partner of Lockheed Martin) and ammunition you need. Lead time allegedly 6-12 months for the latter, 12-18 for wheeled vehicles, 24 for tracked if they go from single to three production shifts. IOW what is really needed right now could have been here, right now.

Of course the SPD's left wing is now grumbling too for having been caught cold by Scholz's announcement; while there was the joint motion agreed between the four/five parties before the Bundestag session, seems he talked about the specific numbers only with finance minister Christian Lindner in advance, and even Green ministers Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock were taken by surprise. So following through now becomes a leadership issue for Scholz, not least within his own party. I'm actually guardedly positive he will pull it off, or at least most if it; but let's talk again after budget deliberations have finished in October or so.

[kokovi]

I think it would be at least as important to adjust the stupid structure between army, support service, IT and medical services somewhere along the lines the former minister of defense and the inspector general proposed.

[TrustMe]

11 hours ago, Ssnake said:

If it all materializes, well, "too little" for what?

"Too late" for what?

 

NATO isn't at war with Russia - at least Russia hasn't started one yet, and hopefully never will (at least our leading politicians woke up to the fact that it might). Even if Germany had started this program right away in 2014, I don't think it would have changed one iota in Putin's determination to conquer Ukraine.

So then it must be asked, to what end would a crash development program started seven years early been "enough" and "on time"?

What I meant was it's always good to have a strong armed forces for un seeable events. Increasing military power after a crisis happens is not only inefficient but also takes time to build up strength. The UK government started increasing the defence budget two years ago.

If you look at WW2 history, the UK started preparing for war in 1935 with conscription beginning in 1938 before the war broke out in 1939 (up to then we had a professional armed forces).

Edited March 2, 2022 by TrustMe

[Rick]

On 3/1/2022 at 6:15 AM, BansheeOne said:

Of course while the Bundeswehr procurement agency is already compiling wishlists - second batch of Pumas to equip the remaining four Panzergrenadier battalions still stuck with Marder, upgrading the first batch to the standard only 40 have been brought to for VJTF 2023, F-35s, ECR Eurofighters, UAVs, filling ammunition stocks for 20 billion Euro alone, etc. - all the financial increases all still have to be authorized by the Bundestag, and possibly by the Bundesrat too if you want to enshrine the special funds of 100 billion in the constitution so that the next government doesn't recycle it to pay pensions or something.

The Conservatives have already stated they're not hot on new debts to finance that (though they might just want to exact some political quid pro quo). Also the measures seem to have been not well-communicated to the Greens in advance, and there is considerable irritation within the party. So let's see were we are two months from now when budget deliberations are on and the war may already be over one way or the other.

Other than age, is there anything wrong with Marders?

[bojan]

Armament is a bit dated. Might be also getting old and a problem to maintain, through considering how much of those were scrapped I would expect to be plenty of spare parts around.

Also does not fulfill new ergonomic and workplace safety standards. I kid you not, it was in the news...

Edited March 2, 2022 by bojan

[Ssnake]

The Marder is (still) fine against older IFVs and enemies without armor, but clearly the 20mm gun is no longer adequate against the designs from 30 years ago, so 30mm must now be regarded as a minimum caliber size for a modern autocannon.

The Marder's biggest advantage lies in its ability to provide sustained suppressive fire with 20mm HE. The number of rounds available in a standard loadout - 750 - is staggering by modern standards. The downsides of the Marder are the aging drivetrain as several rounds of uparmoring made it far heavier than it was supposed to be. Originally capable of 65km/h top speed forward and in reverse, you're now at 45 unless it's a really long stretch of a hardtop straight where you might reach 55 eventually.

Note that the latest Marder upgrade receives exactly what everybody wanted to avoid with the introduction of the Puma - a new engine, new transmission.

I mean, try it out in Steel Beasts. It's a fun, "old school" armored vehicle if you like 1970s techno retro charm. Burst fire is a hoot (though largely non-doctrinal), and the lack of laser range finder and stabilization doesn't exactly help, or that only every other vehicle is equipped with a Milan launcher. Mine protection is only so-so; protection against cluster munitions on the other hand is great.

[bojan]

11 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

...The number of rounds available in a standard loadout - 750 - is staggering by modern standards.

Yes compared to most western IFVs, but BMP-2/3 have 500 rounds ready - 340/160 HE/AP ready for first and 300/200 HE/AP for second. IIRC Chinese IFV with BMP-3 turret also has 500, and one of their other IFVs (forgot designation) has 600 rounds of 30mm ready.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Germany's army: Will €100 billion make it strong?

By Peter Hille, Nina Werkhäuser | 7h ago

Following the Russian attack on Ukraine, Germany has decided to dramatically beef up its defense budget and give the Bundeswehr an extra €100 billion. What will it use the money for?

At first, only two black dots are visible in the bright blue sky above the Eifel region in the far west of Germany. Then, the dots turn into the shapes of two F-35 fighter jets, the roar of their engines quickly growing louder. The jets are coming from the east, where they have been flying patrols over Poland near the Ukrainian border and are now heading back toward the US Air Force Base Spangdahlem.

That's where US troops have deployed 12 of the aircraft to monitor NATO airspace over Eastern Europe in the face of Russian aggression.

These stealth aircraft are considered the most advanced multi-role fighter jets in the world. The Bundeswehr would like to purchase some to replace 45 outdated Tornado aircraft from the 1970s, which can carry American nuclear bombs stockpiled in Germany.

Until now, that wish seemed to be unaffordable. But that changed on February 27, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz made the surprise announcement that the Bundeswehr would receive a one-time special fund of €100 billion ($110.6 billion).

"The F-35 fighter aircraft is being considered as a carrier aircraft," Scholz confirmed in his speech to federal parliament on Germany's reaction to the Russian intervention of Ukraine.

[...]

High-tech wish list

But the Bundeswehr isn't just eyeing fighter jets. It's also seeking financing for the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which Germany is developing together with France.

Next on the list are updated heavy transport helicopters and the modernization of the Patriot air defense missile system. Armed drones, for example from Israel, and modern warships are also on the wish list.

But security expert Claudia Major has warned that it will not be possible for the Bundeswehr to go on a big shopping spree right away, as the army has a backlog.

"There are already many armament projects that the Bundeswehr has already planned but couldn't finance. Now they can go through with this money," she said.

[...]

Low-tech needs

The Bundeswehr has more basic needs, too: there's a shortage of ammunition, and even of combat boots and underwear. A recent report by Eva Högl, the Bundestag's defense commissioner, on the situation of German NATO soldiers in Lithuania almost sounded like a bad joke. After a visit to the region in the cold Lithuanian winter, Högl detailed how the soldiers lacked thick jackets and underwear to keep them dry and warm. How can that be a problem for soldiers in the army of one of the world's richest countries?

But money alone won't be enough. In the past, the Bundeswehr's procurement of weapons and materials was often poorly organized and stalled by excessive bureaucracy. An order of 120,000 combat rifles made in 2015, for example, has been mired in a legal battle and has still not gone through.

The German arms industry is now hoping for large orders, and its share prices have risen dramatically over the past few days. But CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter has warned against hasty decisions. He said the German government must carefully consider on what it will spend the proposed billions, and what is most urgent.

"I'm worried that we'll be burning too much money without prioritization and without the basis of a national security strategy, which, after all, the government has announced," he said.

Army looking for more personnel

Unlike other members of his party group in the Bundestag, Kiesewetter also opposes the reintroduction of compulsory military service. This was suspended under Chancellor Merkel in 2011. The Bundeswehr no longer had the capacity to train and equip conscripts and to be able to manage that again would be expensive and take time, he said.

"That would mean the €100 billion would be gone very quickly, without the Bundeswehr becoming more effective," Kieswetter told DW. He also doubts whether it would be possible to integrate conscripts into a high-tech army with complex weapons systems within only a few months of military service.

Nevertheless, the Bundeswehr wants to grow its numbers. The highest-ranking German soldier, Inspector General Eberhard Zorn, has named a target of 203,000 soldiers on ZDF television, 20,000 more than there are today. Despite expensive advertising campaigns, the Bundeswehr has so far had problems filling vacancies. In view of the tense security situation on NATO's eastern flank, it's now hoping for more applicants.

After the end of the Cold War, the Bundeswehr increasingly began to focus on foreign missions, for example in the Balkans, Afghanistan or Mali. Now, its role is shifting back to equipping an army that is focused on defending its own country and allies closer to home.

Criticism of Bundeswehr boost

The research institute Civey polled 5,000 Germans from February 28 to March 2 and found that three-quarters of them supported the planned special fund for the armed forces.

But critical voices have come from Germany's left-leaning politicians — also within the governing Social Democrats and Greens.

The issue of accountability was raised by Jessica Rosenthal, the leader of the SPD's youth organization that includes 49 Bundestag lawmakers. "There is no point in throwing billions more euros into a black hole," she told the national daily Süddeutsche Zeitung.

The Green Party youth wing has similar concerns. "The supposed need for investment in the Bundeswehr results in particular from mismanagement, not from a lack of budget," Timon Dzienus, co-chairman of the Greens' youth organization told the Tagesspiegel daily newspaper.

[...]

https://m.dw.com/en/germanys-army-will-100-billion-make-it-strong/a-60996891

[Ssnake]

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

"The supposed need for investment in the Bundeswehr results in particular from mismanagement, not from a lack of budget," Timon Dzienus, co-chairman of the Greens' youth organization told the Tagesspiegel

Thank you, smartass.

The mismanagement often is a direct consequence of underfunding, creating an incentive for every project manager to delay payments as a form of liquidity management even if that costs more in the end. But I suppose that even if these finer points do not elude this guy's attention, he's still stuck in last week's mindset.

[seahawk]

On 3/2/2022 at 2:38 PM, Ssnake said:

The Marder is (still) fine against older IFVs and enemies without armor, but clearly the 20mm gun is no longer adequate against the designs from 30 years ago, so 30mm must now be regarded as a minimum caliber size for a modern autocannon.

The Marder's biggest advantage lies in its ability to provide sustained suppressive fire with 20mm HE. The number of rounds available in a standard loadout - 750 - is staggering by modern standards. The downsides of the Marder are the aging drivetrain as several rounds of uparmoring made it far heavier than it was supposed to be. Originally capable of 65km/h top speed forward and in reverse, you're now at 45 unless it's a really long stretch of a hardtop straight where you might reach 55 eventually.

Note that the latest Marder upgrade receives exactly what everybody wanted to avoid with the introduction of the Puma - a new engine, new transmission.

I mean, try it out in Steel Beasts. It's a fun, "old school" armored vehicle if you like 1970s techno retro charm. Burst fire is a hoot (though largely non-doctrinal), and the lack of laser range finder and stabilization doesn't exactly help, or that only every other vehicle is equipped with a Milan launcher. Mine protection is only so-so; protection against cluster munitions on the other hand is great.

The Marder could should still be around as a reserve. One could give some to reservist formations.

[BansheeOne]

Second batch of Puma seems a go.

[BansheeOne]

On 2/6/2022 at 11:06 AM, BansheeOne said:

The three divisions will lead eight German brigades - five mechanized, one mountain, one airborne, and the German contingent to the French-German Brigade built up to a full brigade of its own (whether that spells the end of the current brigade which has only ever been a political token never deployed as such remains to be seen). It would be the likely candidate for recent suggestions of a true medium brigade with operational self-deployment capability to be implemented.

One proposed structure for the latter showed two Jäger (Boxer) battalions and two more labeled "wheeled grenadiers", supposedly mounted on actual wheeled IFVs rather than just having some 30-mm/Spike-armed fire support Boxers as Wiesel replacements in their heavy companies per current plans. It also indicated a wheeled SPH battalion; industry has of course long demonstrated turrets using more automated PzH 2000 technology on Boxer and other platforms, so artillery will in fact possibly increase again - if the money can be found.

The vendor to furnish the 30-mm Boxer has reportedly been selected (it will probably be the Lance turret), and the number is supposed to be greater than originally planned, indicating a serious approach to the plans for building up the German contingents to the French-German Brigade into their own full formation. Of course that will need the requisite manpower, too. While the interest in Bundeswehr enlistment from those both with and without prior service has unsurprisingly seen an uptick since the Russian attack on Ukraine, it remains to be seen whether that will be a sustained development.

[seahawk]

Boxer and 30mm Boxer makes a lot of sense.

[BansheeOne]

On 2/6/2022 at 11:06 AM, BansheeOne said:

- 2027: 10th Panzerdivision completely deployable with organic capabilities, one Panzer and two Panzergrenadier brigades with a total of four Panzer, five Panzergrenadier and three Jäger (Boxer) battalions. These might again have brigade artillery battalions, plus a divisional artillery regiment of one tube, one rocket and one reconnaissance and fire control battalion, though that would use up pretty much all the artillery units remaining in the Bundeswehr.

Similar for organic air defense, entailing four firing units provided by the Luftwaffe which currently runs the dozen Ozelot and stationary MANTIS systems each remaining of German SHORAD, while SysFla with Skyshield and LFK NG on Boxer has been in the future for over a decade. No clear picture whether and when the Heer will grow its own capabilities again. The division will also have a C³, engineer and reconnaissance battalion, whereas brigade engineer and recon forces will shrink to company size again.

This target has been brought forward to 2025, which I have to call ambitious. Not least in view of the emerging partisan bickering over the planned financial increases which was evident in today's general budget debate in the Bundestag, though that is a traditional occasion for political showboating.

[BansheeOne]

Germany is reportedly investigating acquisition of the Israeli Arrow 3 missile defense system, including three "Super Green Pine" radars which could also cover neighboring countries from the Baltic States to Romania (though they would need their own launch sites). Since it would be off the shelf, it could allegedly be operational by 2025, though the process is at a very early stage and media reports typically confused; they mentioned "Iron Dome", which is of course an entirely different system.