U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

[X-Files]

EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

 

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354

 

The Mexican army has sent an estimated 2,000 troops to Juárez as part of a rotation even as the death toll surpassed 35 so far this year.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_11448257?source=most_viewed

 

Anyone seen the ghost of General Pershing lately?

[Gregory]

Collapse in what way?

[Guest JamesG123]

That's a bit melodramatic. I seriously doubt the drug gangs could even make a State government fall (they would just buy them off). Its a paper project designed to give USJFCOM something to do and to justify their budgets.

[Old Tanker]

From the reports I read murders along the border increased from 5,000 to 10,000 as in '07 vs. '08.

 

The U.S. has bailed out Mexico numerous times in many ways from the Tequila Crisis to lax border security.

 

Right now Mexico is getting a triple whammy.

* Oil prices down dramatically which hurts it social welfare programs and Elitist employment network.

* Tighter border security hurts the safety valve of U.S. money flowing into Mexico via remittances and the flow of excess working age population to the U.S.

* Violence along the border is cutting into the tourista biz and the potential growth of Mex. employment from relocating U.S. industries.

[Paul in Qatar]

Yet despite this, no mainstream politico is even willing to talk about drug legalization.

[Kurt L]

From the reports I read murders along the border increased from 5,000 to 10,000 as in '07 vs. '08.

 

The U.S. has bailed out Mexico numerous times in many ways from the Tequila Crisis to lax border security.

 

Right now Mexico is getting a triple whammy.

* Oil prices down dramatically which hurts it social welfare programs and Elitist employment network.

* Tighter border security hurts the safety valve of U.S. money flowing into Mexico via remittances and the flow of excess working age population to the U.S.

* Violence along the border is cutting into the tourista biz and the potential growth of Mex. employment from relocating U.S. industries.

 

Also the terrible shape of the home building industry in the USA where so many Mexicans worked. Lots of these guys have headed home and need work.

[Archie Pellagio]

Also the terrible shape of the home building industry in the USA where so many Mexicans worked. Lots of these guys have headed home and need work.

 

According to statics in the economist magazine remittances to mexico were down around 30% compared with this time last year, and the numbers of illegal-migrants caught is down something in the realm of the twenties.

There were also many annecdotes (take them for what you will) of illegal-migrants going home for extended stays due tot he inability to find work in the US.

[Old Tanker]

According to statics in the economist magazine remittances to mexico were down around 30% compared with this time last year, and the numbers of illegal-migrants caught is down something in the realm of the twenties.

There were also many annecdotes (take them for what you will) of illegal-migrants going home for extended stays due tot he inability to find work in the US.

 

I live in the heart of Atzlan but the illegal population seems to have dropped but admitting the telltale signs are PC'ly ignored.

Less crime , less EMT calls , lower class room count etc. Gee and nobody mentions that tougher state laws and our Sicilian Connection ( Sheriff Joe) are the reasons. The slowdown in construction is also a factor.

 

On a personal note I get my trees trimmed every Jan. The biz owner is a Mex-Amer and his hired help until 2 years ago was always told what to do in Spanish. The last 2 years his hired help spoke English and definetly were down and out Euro-whites not Latin Americans.

[Guest aevans]

People forget that Mexico had a civil war less than a century ago that didn't decide much. It mostly rearranged the ceremonial chairs, trimmed some marginal operators off of the patron class, and gave the campesinos and common townsfolk slightly increased freedoms. But Mexico is still Mexico, and a political/economic collapse is just part of its history.

[toysoldier]

On a personal note I get my trees trimmed every Jan. The biz owner is a Mex-Amer and his hired help until 2 years ago was always told what to do in Spanish. The last 2 years his hired help spoke English and definetly were down and out Euro-whites not Latin Americans.

 

Did the fee changed to reflect the change in staff?

 

Regarding Mexico, you USians would be surprised of how disfunctional can a 3rd world country get to be without "collapsing".

[Guest aevans]

Regarding Mexico, you USians would be surprised of how disfunctional can a 3rd world country get to be without "collapsing".

 

Depends on the USian. I went to Ensenada fort he first time last summer and was impressed by how much it resembled East Los Angeles or Boyle Heights, two notoriously disfunctional parts of Los Angeles mostly populated by Mexican immigrants. IOW, Mexico isn't all cardboard shacks and sewage running down the middle of the street. Most of it is just not very rich.

 

Having said that, Mexico's demographic energies are always competing with its fundamental economic capacity, leading to periodic economic and political turmoil, as previously noted.

Edited January 15, 2009 by aevans

[Rubberneck]

Mexico is in very bad shape, do not look at this situation as JFCOM wanting to blow up the threat.

 

Three major problems are occuring in Mexico right now:

1. The major oil field - Cantarell - has been declining in output for a number of years, and the Mexicans have nationalized their oil industry. What this means is that they have not been able to open up any other potential oil fields (and there are some) because they have not bothered to. In addition, oil revenue is the number one source of income for the nation.

2. The number two source of income for Mexico is Yankee dollars being sent home by immigrants - both legal and illegal. As stated by others, the decay of the American economy has led many Mexicans to return home as there simply is no work here.

3. The drug gangs are becoming much stronger - they are recruiting Mexican Army and Special Forces personnel, with full pay and medical benefits. The Mexican Army and National Police are corrupt and it's hit and miss with them. This leads to a hollowing out of the country, where the political leaders are unwilling to send troops into the violent areas because the units cannot be trusted.

[RETAC21]

3. The drug gangs are becoming much stronger - they are recruiting Mexican Army and Special Forces personnel, with full pay and medical benefits. The Mexican Army and National Police are corrupt and it's hit and miss with them. This leads to a hollowing out of the country, where the political leaders are unwilling to send troops into the violent areas because the units cannot be trusted.

 

If they are only getting full pay plus benefits they are screwed See the Zetas as an example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Zetas

 

I recently saw a documentary on Mexico, where I saw one of the best definitions of the problem: "In Mexico, the Law is optional".

 

The place could collapse in anarchy, but then so could have Colombia and they seem to have rebounded.

[crazyinsane105]

If they are only getting full pay plus benefits they are screwed See the Zetas as an example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Zetas

 

I recently saw a documentary on Mexico, where I saw one of the best definitions of the problem: "In Mexico, the Law is optional".

 

The place could collapse in anarchy, but then so could have Colombia and they seem to have rebounded.

 

The difference between Colombia and Mexico is that Mexico happens to share a very long border with us...

[Old Tanker]

The difference between Colombia and Mexico is that Mexico happens to share a very long border with us...

 

Correct .

 

Plus about 10-15% of the native born Mexican population is in the U.S. both legally and illegally( or was in U.S. 18 months ago).

[TSJ]

Here's some of the general idiocy that goes on down there. I'm telling you that the Mexicans are liable to do anything. It's one of the reasons they lost the war over Texas.

 

TIJUANA, Mexico — Soldiers in Tijuana have detained three suspected drug assassins with uniforms featuring a skull above crossed crutches, apparently patterned after the logo of the Jackass television show and movies.

 

The men are suspected of working for a Mexican cartel operator nicknamed "Muletas," or "Crutches." The 15 black uniforms found in the men's SUV in Tijuana, across the border from San Diego, had arm patches with the logo and the slogan, "Muletas Special Forces."

 

An army statement issued Friday said the men were pulled over because their car had bullet holes in one side. Soldiers found 20 guns in the SUV and another vehicle and suspect the men were involved in kidnappings and killings. No charges have yet been filed.

Edited January 17, 2009 by TSJ

[DesertEagle]

An army statement issued Friday said the men were pulled over because their car had bullet holes in one side. Soldiers found 20 guns in the SUV and another vehicle and suspect the men were involved in kidnappings and killings. No charges have yet been filed.

 

Uh oh. Better get Maaco.

[Old Tanker]

If they are only getting full pay plus benefits they are screwed See the Zetas as an example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Zetas

 

 

The History Channel is running and indepth program on Los Zetas this afternoon.

[X-Files]

A potential rise in vigilante justice in Ciudad Juarez would escalate an already dangerous situation, elected officials and researchers said Friday, the day after the so-called Juarez Citizens Command issued a threat to kill one criminal every 24 hours.

 

As of Friday evening, no deaths had been linked to the previously unheard-of organization, which stated in an e-mail news release Thursday that it would issue a manifesto in a few days with its goals for restoring order in Juarez, the violence-plagued city across the border from El Paso.

 

"There is a call for the public to remain calm," said Andres Andreu, a Juarez representative in the Chihuahua state congress.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/state_news/story/1149797.html

 

 

 

"plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose"

[TSJ]

Dig this, when my son and his wife visited Mexico a few years ago the current mythology then circulating in Mexico was that pedophiles will face vigilante justice by being taken out into a field, pour gasoline over them and set them afire. Six months later, 2 cops were staking out a criminal's house near a school. Some the neighbors thought they were pedophiles, captured them , and set them on fire with gasoline. The president of Mexico then made a public statement for people not to assume anyone was a pedophile and setting them on fire. Only in Mexico....

Edited January 19, 2009 by TSJ

[Paul in Qatar]

Perhaps this is the place to post some long-simmering thoughts.

 

The Drug War needs to end. It is our generations analog to Prohibition. Even if we assume the best of intentions, the policy has simply failed. While the police industry would like even more funds, more restrictions, more power, we cannot see how any level effort will lead us to a victory. Even if the US military were more directly committed to the fight, the forces of prohibition would fail. We cannot even rid maximum security prisons of drugs, let alone our neighborhoods.

 

American consumption of illicit drugs has set off or funded evil around the world. Not that Americans have given a damn about suffering Mexico, Columbia or Afghanistan. Still the horrors inflicted on America and Americans by the present policy are shocking enough.

 

I would be open to any way to end this suffering. I would be willing to consider more more laws, fewer laws or different laws. I have no preference whatsoever.

 

That being said, it is time to end the War on Drugs by legalizing the production, sale and use of most if not all recreational drugs. I reach this conclusion because we have tried everything else and because it fits so well with our historical experience with Prohibition. Prohibition ended and the killing and suffering slowed down. We need to apply the same model now. Legalize drugs, tax them and treat those inured by them.

 

If we as a nation can view the use of cigarettes as a reasonable choice of adults, certainly the same can be said of the use of most recreational drugs.

 

Enough of throwing more money and resources down this rathole. The War on Drugs needs to end. We lost.

[Guest aevans]

The Drug War needs to end.

 

Incorrect. The reason you are incorrect is contained in this little gem of misanalysis:

 

If we as a nation can view the use of cigarettes as a reasonable choice of adults, certainly the same can be said of the use of most recreational drugs.

 

The problem with the drugs on the DEA Schedule of controlled substances is that they are far more potent than nicotine or even alcohol. They are not recreational. Taken strictly from the pharmacological standpoint, their pathology is remarkable. They predictably destroy lives at a far greater rate than tobacco or alcohol, and much more quickly.

 

The big problem with the War on Drugs is that we call it a war but are unwilling to fight it as one. You decry the violence and the cost, Paul? What is war but violence and cost? You, of all people, given you previous statements about what we should be doing to win the war against Islamic extremism, should be calling for exactly the same approach to the War on Drugs. But you don't, because it hits a little too close to home. Some people you know might get hurt. You're a hypocrite, Paul.

[Old Tanker]

Incorrect. The reason you are incorrect is contained in this little gem of misanalysis:

The problem with the drugs on the DEA Schedule of controlled substances is that they are far more potent than nicotine or even alcohol. They are not recreational. Taken strictly from the pharmacological standpoint, their pathology is remarkable. They predictably destroy lives at a far greater rate than tobacco or alcohol, and much more quickly.

 

 

Crystal meth comes to mind. The few I've known who have bought the farm seemed to survive booze and tobacki but the meth killed them.

[Paul in Qatar]

So you want more and bigger hammers? As you said, we are unwilling to fight it as a war. Therefore we ought not to be fighting it.

[Vasiliy Fofanov]

So you want more and bigger hammers? As you said, we are unwilling to fight it as a war. Therefore we ought not to be fighting it.

 

Hmmm, I'd rather logically conclude from this that "therefore" we ought to start willing. Say... kill every single Afghani found closer than 10km to the nearest poppy field...