Conscription in America?

[SCFalken]

This is a hypothetical topic. Please confine the discussion to the logistics, not the political theory.

 

Question: Given a situation in which Congress exercises it's authority to resume conscripting personnel via the Selective Service System, how will this be accomplished, start to finish?

 

IOW, how are conscripts selected, where are they assembled, how are they trained (where is the cadre coming from, etc), how are they formed (are Regular/Guard units broken up and used for cadre to form a larger number of Army of The United State units?) and how long are the conscripts to serve?

 

Secondly, do we have arms and equipment (even non-current issue gear that might be in storage, like M60A3 tanks and M16A1 rifles) to provide, or must Conscription necessarily be accompanied by a Reagan-style shopping/aquisition spree?

 

What's the price-tag per unit (Division, Corps) of new troops?

 

Redirect: Are there actual Mobilization Plans for any level past that of "Recall the IRR" (Partial Mobilization)? Or is the Army simply to wing it, if Selective Service starts sending them inductees?

 

Falken

Edited October 26, 2007 by SCFalken

[Archie Pellagio]

I'd imagine splitting existing units to form the shell cadre and then filling the ranks with draftees would be the fastest way to for up an army (ie less than 6 months)

 

Longer term more effective means coud probably come into play (ie a two year training cycle with more drafted NCO's etc)

 

The key question for the draft though is, given the far greater skillset (often quite technical) required of soldiers these days, what is the workaround to that short of a three or four year draft?

Do you create a means whereby a deployment of one year extends their draft period of 12/18/24 months?

 

(ie Pte. Gomer Pyle spends 8 months in training at basic+school of infantry+additional courses (CSL etc) then two months on barracks, then begins his 15mnth workup for his deployment to iraq/afgh/derkastan for a total draft time of 25 months)

Edited October 26, 2007 by Luke_Yaxley

[Guest JamesG123]

This is a hypothetical topic. Please confine the discussion to the logistics, not the political theory.

Groan... Can we talk about a hypothetical invasion from Mars next? 'Cause that's what it would take to bring the draft back.

Question: Selective Service System, how will this be accomplished, start to finish?

For rapidly(ish) expanding the number of formations and units? Probably dust off the COHORT system. A Cadre of NCOs and officers takes their soldiers from induction thru training and into deployment. Not sure I really like this system, because the skills and techniques to "orient" new Privates on the military are not necissarly the same as a combat leader, so you might be creating problems down the road. Also might cause a stigma or other negative connotation if those conscript units become identified as "those press-gang brigades".

The alternative is to simply expand the current system and filter the new soldiers into the replacement system.

Are Regular/Guard units broken up and used for cadre to form a larger number of Army of The United State units?

That is a possibility, but is not the historical precedent. The NG and AR have their own chains of command and political influence, so their would be a battle royal if anyone tried to "steal" them to flesh out the active army.

and how long are the conscripts to serve?

For the duration of the conflict?

One or two years service obligation was a big mistake of the last draft. Very inefficient. If you are going to yank young men out of their lives, better to do fewer longer, than make a bunch for short little bits of time.

 

Secondly, do we have arms and equipment (even non-current issue gear that might be in storage, like M60A3 tanks and M16A1 rifles) to provide, or must Conscription necessarily be accompanied by a Reagan-style shopping/aquisition spree?

We have lots and lots older equipment, and by older I mean 1999+, M1s M2/3s, M16A4. Basically everything pre-"Transformation".

No need to break into the museums quite yet. The only bottleneck would be newer equipment, radios and sensors, M4s, all the ACU, IBA, and MOLLY crap. Vehicles too.

 

What's the price-tag per unit (Division, Corps) of new troops?

Pretty cheap relatively. These new divisions would fall in on mostly existing heavy equipment, or (more likely) would be light formations (Stryker or light Inf.), which are very cheap compared to heavy divisions.

 

Redirect: Are there actual Mobilization Plans for any level past that of "Recall the IRR" (Partial Mobilization)? Or is the Army simply to wing it, if Selective Service starts sending them inductees?

I doubt they even want to contemplate this headache much less a plan... There would be extreme disruption, the severity depending on the amount of resistance/unpopularity of the draft and the conflict driving it. The current US Army assumes that you are there by choice, reasonably motivated, and a grown up. Conscripts mean it would have to go back to the bad old days of "hand holding" the soldiers. Confinement to barracks, marching everyone everywhere, etc.

[Paul in Qatar]

Of course the politics would have to be handled "just right," but that is out of the scope of this discussion.

 

The real danger would be over-expanding the force. We need more soldiers, but not a huge amount more. If we conscript some and pass on the vast majority there is a danger of being unfair. Unfairness is a real problem, as it would undermine political support. (Oops!)

 

Ideally I suppose we would have some number of soldiers we need each year by say June. If we do not meet the goal we would draft enough to make up the difference. Further, we would ideally grab the most-qualified people we can get.

 

Here is an innovative idea. We offer some nice college scholarships to say 100,000 physically fit people. If we need 20,000 draftees we dun a lottery from amongst that pool. This way, they would be sort-of volunteers, and college material too! If need be we could have a draft of medical personnel or other skilled specialties. Even civilian hospitals have trouble getting enough doctors.

 

In the past, draftees have been exempted from overseas service. That is a real bother we ought not to get tied into. These guys are to relieve the pressure on the guys we got now. Heck we ought to guarantee overseas service. In the same way, I see no need for a reduced rate of pay for draftees. We want them to reup.

 

Perhaps most critically, and to return to my first point, it is very important to take as few people of the highest quality as possible.

[BP]

Here is an innovative idea. We offer some nice college scholarships to say 100,000 physically fit people. If we need 20,000 draftees we dun a lottery from amongst that pool. This way, they would be sort-of volunteers, and college material too! If need be we could have a draft of medical personnel or other skilled specialties. Even civilian hospitals have trouble getting enough doctors.

 

 

Yes, it's called ROTC. Can't currently fill that program either.

[SCFalken]

Yes, it's called ROTC. Can't currently fill that program either.

 

 

Last FY, I don't think there was a single Army ROTC Battalion that used all it's scholarship slots.

 

 

 

Falken

[SCFalken]

How long would it take to start generating new BCTs? Assuming we have the arms and equipment for them (using Infantry BCTs as the metric).

 

 

Falken

[Paul in Qatar]

Last FY, I don't think there was a single Army ROTC Battalion that used all it's scholarship slots.

Falken

 

 

That is a darn interesting factoid.

[Guest JamesG123]

How long would it take to start generating new BCTs?

 

I don't know how long it is taking to stand up new BCTs currently, but assuming an adequate supply of personell and equipment, it should be possible to create one from scratch in a year, another to train up, with it ready to deploy in the third.

Problem is, private soldiers are easy and quick to train. 6 or so months for a good basic solider. The hard part are the NCOs and officers. It takes three years to make an effective Sergeant. It takes four years of college and about another year of misc. branch training to make a new Lieutenant.

Too rapid an expansion can dilute the quality of your NCO corp if you promote soldiers who aren't ready or qualified for the responsibilities (what is happening now due to lack of retention).

[Paul in Qatar]

All of this brings up the issue of (even assuming we want to draft people) how long could and should we keep them? Just two years for training would not seem excessive at all. Then work them for two more years?

[Old Tanker]

I maybe hijacking this topic but I think discussion about a draft is a waste of ideas and time. As we are far from needing one and various incentives are keeping our regular units' heads above water.

 

My main concern is we may totally wreck the NG and reserves as a backfill or backup for the regulars by continually calling up especially in critically important skill sets needed today.

 

What will the NG and reserves look like manpower and experience wise 5 years from now ? Will we have to increase the regulars to 1989-1990 levels because of shortfalls in the NG ?

[SCFalken]

Ref: ROTC Cadets...

 

FM 25-5, Chapter 2, states:

Officers

 

The United States Military Academy (USMA) and military colleges and institutions will graduate the senior class as soon as possible and then reduce their programs to three years. At nonmilitary colleges and institutions, Reserve Officers Training Corps (ROTC) programs will be suspended when full mobilization is called and mobilization tasks are completed. ROTC cadets who have completed the ROTC advanced camp will be commissioned immediately upon receipt of instructions from HQDA and will attend the appropriate officer basic course (OBC). However, ROTC cadets who are under contract and have completed basic camp or MS II training will be ordered to active duty as enlisted reservists to attend an officer candidate school (OCS). All other contract students will be ordered to active duty immediately as enlisted reservists to attend BT. If they complete BT and demonstrate officer potential, they may be offered the OCS option.

 

Upon full or total mobilization, State Army National Guard military academies will accelerate completion of the OCS classes in session. The assigned cadre will be reassigned to TRADOC and earmarked as OCS faculty. OCS graduates will attend an appropriate OBC.

 

That would be a strange day.

 

As it was explained to us MSIIIs, on M-Day we would be called into the PMS's office, the Oath would be administered, and orders would be handed out (most likely to report to Brigade, where we would find out our Branch and OBC assignments). We'd be on the road the next day.

 

 

 

Falken

[SCFalken]

All of this brings up the issue of (even assuming we want to draft people) how long could and should we keep them? Just two years for training would not seem excessive at all. Then work them for two more years?

 

4 would seem to be the minimum, or at least Training (BCT + AIT) + 36 Months.

 

 

Falken

[Guest JamesG123]

Thats when you would know that the shit had truely hit the fan...

 

But Ol' Tanker is right. In a year the Democrats will have bludgeoned or weaseled the US out of Iraq for the most part, perhaps even completely.

After that we need to concentrate resources on building up our human intelligence capabilities, COIN, and special operations forces, not drafting massive conventional armies to do battle with _?_.

 

But this has been a sobering exercise in how far we have fallen since 1991...

Edited October 26, 2007 by JamesG123

[Rocky Davis]

My main concern is we may totally wreck the NG and reserves as a backfill or backup for the regulars by continually calling up especially in critically important skill sets needed today.

 

What will the NG and reserves look like manpower and experience wise 5 years from now ? Will we have to increase the regulars to 1989-1990 levels because of shortfalls in the NG ?

 

Ten years ago, the Guard unit's #1 method of recruiting was signing up those that had fulfilled their Active Duty obligations, but decided (for one reason or another) not to do it as a 24/7/365 job but still loved it enough to not leave the military completely. That ended, once Guard units began being deployed on Active Duty for GWOT because a lot of those that had just left Active Duty had most likely already spent a tour or two in the Middle East and didn't want to take the chance of joining a Guard unit that might up and be deployed.

 

These days, the majority of those that leave Active Duty are opting to leave the military for good. This decreases available manpower for the Guard and severely hampers its ability to sign up experienced soldiers, sometimes with AC combat experience. What that leaves is a Guard that is largely “incestuous,” in that it is largely made up of career Guardsmen (with little or no Active Duty experience) that is being led by career Guardsmen (with little or no Active Duty experience) and this "incestuous" Guard unit has little or no access to methods or good ideas that can be gleaned from soldiers coming in fresh to the Guard from Active Duty. In short, think of a family tree with no branches.

[Guest JamesG123]

Maybe in the next 5 to 10 years that might be true, when the current guys start retiring (like me!). But right now the NG, at least the GA NG, probably has a slim majority of prior service. Before our deployment we got quite a few guys who had just gotten off AD, including a couple who had just gotten back from Iraq, signed up for the Guard and wound up going straight back even sooner than if they had PCSed.

We are still getting a trickle of guys coming off the AD trail, but it along with all other recruitment has fallen way off.

[SCFalken]

Could Conscription be used to expand the Army Reserve? I.E. Conscripts go AD for BCT, AIT and a few weeks of FTXs, then go into the Reserve units, obligated to a certain period of AD per annum for 6-8 years and general Mobilization when directed by the POTUS.

 

If you have 25 Divisions (100 BCTs, or however you want to split it) in Reserve, dipping in to augment the Regulars isn't likely to hurt so much.

 

There is still the problem of generating NCOs and Officers for those units. For JNCOs and Lieutenants, that may be solveable by selecting potentials from BCT. SNCOs, Captains and above....not so easy. That will take time, no matter what.

 

 

Falken

Edited October 26, 2007 by SCFalken

[Rocky Davis]

Maybe in the next 5 to 10 years that might be true, when the current guys start retiring (like me!). But right now the NG, at least the GA NG, probably has a slim majority of prior service. Before our deployment we got quite a few guys who had just gotten off AD, including a couple who had just gotten back from Iraq, signed up for the Guard and wound up going straight back even sooner than if they had PCSed.

 

We are still getting a trickle of guys coming off the AD trail, but it along with all other recruitment has fallen way off.

 

Well, figure that the benefits of being AC as a full-time job/profession outweigh the benefits of being RC/NG. Figure that, if AC, you (just about) absolutely know when your family life will be disrupted by a long deployment (not so much so with NG/RC). Figure that AC retirement benefits outweigh RC/NG retirement benefits. With all of that, by even bother going RC/NG - your two best choices would be AC or nothing at all (no military service as an option).

[Guest JamesG123]

Yes, currently being in the RC/NG sucks.

 

But when Hillary/Obama take office they are going to make everything all better, right?

Edited October 26, 2007 by JamesG123

[Xavier]

Could Conscription be used to expand the Army Reserve? I.E. Conscripts go AD for BCT, AIT and a few weeks of FTXs, then go into the Reserve units, obligated to a certain period of AD per annum for 6-8 years and general Mobilization when directed by the POTUS.

 

If you have 25 Divisions (100 BCTs, or however you want to split it) in Reserve, dipping in to augment the Regulars isn't likely to hurt so much.

 

There is still the problem of generating NCOs and Officers for those units. For JNCOs and Lieutenants, that may be solveable by selecting potentials from BCT. SNCOs, Captains and above....not so easy. That will take time, no matter what.

Falken

 

the Swiss seem to think it's a good idea, for a defensive military at least

[Old Tanker]

Could Conscription be used to expand the Army Reserve? I.E. Conscripts go AD for BCT, AIT and a few weeks of FTXs, then go into the Reserve units, obligated to a certain period of AD per annum for 6-8 years and general Mobilization when directed by the POTUS.

 

Yikes !

 

You sure like conscription. We need such a small portion of the available pool as to make it most unfair. Three out of a 100 , four , maybe 5 ?

 

Why not use perks or bonus method ?

 

Also with all the pissing and moaning by the TORTURE screamers I've deemed conscription as torture as to meaning the whishy-washy types describe it as.

[Guest JamesG123]

To be eligible to vote, at 18 males AND FEMALES must attend basic training and enlist for 3 years in the RC, NG, or 8 years in the IRR.

 

[SCFalken]

We need such a small portion of the available pool as to make it most unfair. Three out of a 100 , four , maybe 5 ?

 

What fraction of eligible males did we induct during the 1950-1965 era? I'm guessing ~20%, maybe.

 

Every eligible male has equal liability. Just not equal outcome (not guaranteed to anyone in our system). It's quite fair.

 

The real trick is to wade through the pile of 4F types that comes in with every intake to the Board. I think it's a conservative estimate that ~50% of men summoned to appear for physicals and screening will be ineligible (guys who'd need 6 months of remedial conditioning to pass the APFT, felons, guys on Zoloft, gays, etc). We'd be calling in 10 men for every 2-3 we inducted. In some cases, when we shoot snake eyes, we might have to re-issue the summons, just to get the number of guys we expected in the first round.

 

And what to do with resisters, fakers and guys who are just too fat?

 

Falken

Edited October 27, 2007 by SCFalken

[SCFalken]

the Swiss seem to think it's a good idea, for a defensive military at least

 

True, it would lend itself to defensive/Homeland Security operations most readily. However, just like the Guard and Reserve currently mobilize for overseas/Expeditionary warfare, the above mentioned Reserve could provide BCTs that would go through pre-deployment training, then deploy. The difference is that there would be more BCTs in the Reserve pool, thus ablating the current stretch being suffered by the Guard and Reserve.

 

On the Homeland Security front, it gives a more even layer of troops for Katrina-esque disaster relief and civil disorder missions.

 

 

Falken

[Paul in Qatar]

A two-tiered system would have some utility. Draftees in the RC for homeland duties, a volunteer AC for overseas. Some utility, but I am opposed. A soldier is a soldier.

 

In truth. I am really not a believer in conscription, although it would have some laudable effects. I also do not believe the current manning level, the current number of units, is high enough. If we could man an expanded force with volunteers, fine. But it seems we are having a bear of a time with manning even this too-small force.