The Soviet Union Surrenders in 1941

[Richard Lindquist]

Postulate: German 'shock and awe" causes Stalin to be toppled and the Soviet Union to seek an armistice in the autumn of 1941.

 

1. What are the German terms for surrender??

 

2. Do the Germans create a number of Slovakia, Croatia style client states (possibly similar to the post-1989 breakup)??

 

3. Would breakaway hard-liners continue the war from Siberia??

 

4. How much of the German war effort can be released against the west and how much will be tied to the occupation??

[swerve]

Postulate: German 'shock and awe" causes Stalin to be toppled and the Soviet Union to seek an armistice in the autumn of 1941...

 

2. Do the Germans create a number of Slovakia, Croatia style client states (possibly similar to the post-1989 breakup)??...

 

2). Definitely. Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania for a start. More than that I don't know. There would have been arguments inside the Nazi hierarchy between pragmatists wanting to buy the support of Belarussian & Ukrainian nationalists, & the racial ideologues wanting to annex everything & enslave the lot, & I have no idea how they would have been resolved.

[Paul in Qatar]

Let me noodle on it a bit. It is a huge what-if.

 

I am reminded about the old joke about the dog. What would he do if he actually caught a car?

[Ken Estes]

The immediate German war aim was to occupy up to the line Archangel-Astrakhan, leaving a rump soviet republic to the east on a border to be patrolled by a few armored divisions. Suitably 'nordic' nationalities [i.e. Latvian, Estonian; not Lithuanian] would have satellite status, but the rest would have been reorganized in to regions under Reichkommissaren on the model of the General Government [former Poland], the Reich colonization office would be energized to provide settlers, but from where? - the war goes on. Turkey would have been brought under immense pressure to come into the axis and Spain would likely have entered the alliance under more voluntary conditions. With the US in the war - thanks Japanese - the precarious condition of the UK might be preserved, as most of the Commomwealth, but the dangerous concept of cooperation between Japan and Germany might lead to the loss of the Indian Ocean/Persian Gulf before the Allies become effective.

 

Thus a world war ensues of unimaginable proportions, as bad as the real War II had been, and nothing can be left out as a possibility. It surely lasts another 5+ years.

[swerve]

The immediate German war aim was to occupy up to the line Archangel-Astrakhan, leaving a rump soviet republic to the east on a border to be patrolled by a few armored divisions. Suitably 'nordic' nationalities [i.e. Latvian, Estonian; not Lithuanian] would have satellite status, ...

 

Difficult to include Latvians & exclude Lithuanians. Because they're Catholic? Closely-related languages (both Baltic), both tend to be tall & fair (keen on basketball), etc.

 

Of course, Nazi racial classifications defied logic, but if correct, that one is particularly perverse.

[Marek Tucan]

Of course, Nazi racial classifications defied logic, but if correct, that one is particularly perverse.

 

Sssh... Nazi research after swallowing Czechoslovakia showed there were more "Aryan" type people among Czechs than among Sudeten Germans

 

As for German-Japan cooperation, would it be likely? Can they reach Parsian Gulf? Japanese would have to send most of their fleet to support such an operation, that might mean the US navy would get carier superiority and might be quite disturbing to Japanese war effort.

[konev]

If I remember correctly, about 100 Divisions would have been left in the East to patrol the new border and occupy the territories. The remaining forces of the Wehrmacht would have been committed someplace else, most likely Persia/Iran, with Turkish forces right along side them.

 

With this many forces available, in 1942 the Brits, along with the Commonwealth Allies and whatever US reinforcements could have been cobbled together, would probably say goodbye to the entire Middle East. The British 9th and 10th Armies would not have been able to hold back that many Divisions. With those armies retreating, the positions of the British 8th Army in Egypt and Libya would have been unsustainable and forced to retreat either east before being cut-off or south into Sudan/East Africa.

 

Logistics would have been the only thing that would have slowed down the Axis at that point.

 

Also, you have to remember that the German Infantry Divisions would have probably been the 9-Battalion types, leaving the 6-Battalions left to occupy Russia. Throw in Panzer Divisions that were at near full strength (2 Battalions/200 tanks) and the Gross Deutschland Division and the two SS Corps (I and II SS Corps with the Leibstandarte Motorized, Das Reich Motorized, Totenkopf Motorized, Viking Motorized, Nord Mountain, Prinz Eugen Mountain).

 

In the Med, you can probably guarantee the fall of Malta and Cyprus, with an extra German Corps or two in Libya to be available to move into Vichy French North Africa if needed.

 

Given all of this, you probably would not see an invasion of North Africa until 1943 at the earliest, Sicily and Italy in 1944 and Northwest France in 1945. All against a much stronger Wehrmacht than historical and an industrial base than would most likely have moved into Poland and Byelorussia at the edge of the strategic bomber range.

 

Altogether, not a pretty picture in the extreme. If the Allies could not invade western Europe until 1945, then you might see a coordinated invasion with nuclear attacks on several German cities.

 

konev

[swerve]

Sssh... Nazi research after swallowing Czechoslovakia showed there were more "Aryan" type people among Czechs than among Sudeten Germans ...

 

Easy to believe, after visiting the Czech Republic. Maybe it's the beer. Also, I'm struck by how many leggy blonde Polish women, looking like some kind of Aryan stereotype, there are living around here these days. But we digress . . .

[swerve]

Konev,

 

would Turkey have joined in? AFAIK, Turkish policy was to keep out of any war unless it had absolutely no choice.

 

Moving industry east on a large scale was impossible for the Nazis. Their racial ideology, obsession with primacy of the Reich, unwillingness to compel Germans to move east, & general economic incompetence all conspired to prevent them even exploiting Polish & Ukrainian industry properly (looted a lot of it, & ran the rest into the ground). Can you imagine a regime that couldn't even make proper use of plants it took over intact managing a large-scale relocation into the same territories?

 

The only places the Nazis managed to make half-decent use of industry in occupied territories were in the West, where they left the local management - and usually owners - in place.

[Paul in Qatar]

It is hard to imagine Hitler would have declared victory and not screwed up a sweet deal. The boy had a talent for it after all.

 

Ideally, the Germans would have gone to the 100 divisions in the East, brought the rest of the boys home to rebuild the economy and fostered a true ally in Fascist France. Then their only problem would be the RAF and that seems solvable. Trade Norway to the Brits for peace and establish the European Union.

 

But as I said, I could not imagine Uncle Adolph doing such a thing.

[Ken Estes]

Difficult to include Latvians & exclude Lithuanians. Because they're Catholic? Closely-related languages (both Baltic), both tend to be tall & fair (keen on basketball), etc.

 

Of course, Nazi racial classifications defied logic, but if correct, that one is particularly perverse.

Hi Paul, There is something wrong about the Lithuanians in the German schema, but I can't put my finger on it. Himmler refused to accept them into the W-SS, for which the Estonian and Latvians were, so that was my initial cut-out. The story must be in Norman Rich, Hitler's War Aims, Vol II the Establishment of the New Order, but I don't have it in hand at the moment. Your last point, of course, is spot-on.

 

p.s. - I have a faint recollection that in the New Order, Lith was to be broken up between greater Latvia and an expanded General Government.

Edited October 4, 2007 by Ken Estes

[Ken Estes]

Sssh... Nazi research after swallowing Czechoslovakia showed there were more "Aryan" type people among Czechs than among Sudeten Germans

 

As for German-Japan cooperation, would it be likely? Can they reach Parsian Gulf? Japanese would have to send most of their fleet to support such an operation, that might mean the US navy would get carier superiority and might be quite disturbing to Japanese war effort.

 

Japan, Germany and Italy sign a treaty on December 11, 1941 pledging cooperation in the war vs. the US and promising not to sign a separate peace or armistice. That same day, both IT and GE declared war on the US. Japan wanted more, however, and presented a draft military convention dividing the world at the 70th Longitude. The Germans wanted to use national boundaries instead, conceding all E. of Iran, but coming a little farther east in the USSR, ending on the Yenesei River to the Arctic. But, they caved to the Japanese and signed on 18 Jan 42, only after that urging the Japanese to threaten the USSR and act against US shipments to Vlad. The Japanese had no intention whatsover at this point in the game of taking on the USSR and did nothing to the end to antagonize it.

 

That was mere diplomatic groundbreaking, however, and your Q of 'could they do it' remains to assess. I found HP Willmott most persuasive though that the IO option was the most fruitful option for Japan in 1942.

[KingSargent]

In the Med, you can probably guarantee the fall of Malta and Cyprus, with an extra German Corps or two in Libya to be available to move into Vichy French North Africa if needed.

Not without building a new harbor larger than Tripoli you won't. Crappy Axis logistics in Africa were not due solely to interference from Malta, the infrastructure was inadequate to handle what did get through.

 

Anybody fantasizing about a bunch of PanzerKorps swamping Africa and the Middle East had better figure out what they are going to do for fuel, rations, and potable water.

[Ken Estes]

Not without building a new harbor larger than Tripoli you won't. Crappy Axis logistics in Africa were not due solely to interference from Malta, the infrastructure was inadequate to handle what did get through.

 

Anybody fantasizing about a bunch of PanzerKorps swamping Africa and the Middle East had better figure out what they are going to do for fuel, rations, and potable water.

Given the premise of the thread, the Middle East would have been occupied by German troops railed through Turkey, with Iran occupied via the Caucasus, I presume. Rommel would have been sidelined [heh!] by the real pros: Kleist, Hoeppner and Hoth. A Germany victorious in Russia likely would have closed the books on Vichy France by forcing an alliance and taken control of Oran-Bizerte, I assume, thereby solving your port problems, King. By then, I guess the RN and 8th Army would have been brought back around the Cape [dropping off the SA's] on the way back to Fortress England.

 

The new leaders of the West European satellite states would have been the military collaborators [a term instantly voided] of the various volunteer legions of 41-42, even if they did not get into action.

[swerve]

Not without building a new harbor larger than Tripoli you won't. Crappy Axis logistics in Africa were not due solely to interference from Malta, the infrastructure was inadequate to handle what did get through.

 

Anybody fantasizing about a bunch of PanzerKorps swamping Africa and the Middle East had better figure out what they are going to do for fuel, rations, and potable water.

 

If Turkey allowed it (possible, once the USSR was defeated), there'd be no problem. Firstly, there were railways across Turkey. Secondly, Cyprus couldn't hold with the Luftwaffe in Turkey. With Cyprus held by Germany, coastal shipping becomes pretty safe, & the ports of Mersin & Iskenderun open to German use. Turkey could supply all the food they'd need. Fuel shouldn't be too great a problem, if they had secure supply routes.

 

Those PanzerKorps could swing south through Syria, Palestine & Jordan, & SE into Iraq (note that there was a railway from the Mediterranean coast to Mosul, as well as through Turkey). With Mosul & Kirkuk taken, they'd have the oilfields there, from which there were pipelines to Tripoli (the one now in Lebanon) & Haifa. Big issue would be whether the refinery could be put back into use.

[Richard Lindquist]

I wonder if the Japanese Army might not want to begin advancing north out of Manchuria against the rump state of the Soviet Union and nix the Navy plans to move against the US and Southeast Asia. A little bit of pressue on the Dutch admin in the East Indies might keep the oil flowing.

[Paul in Qatar]

I just don't see it getting to that point. I would presume the British would see reason if the Russians folded and put in a new government.

[zraver]

I just don't see it getting to that point. I would presume the British would see reason if the Russians folded and put in a new government.

 

Depends, by mid 41 the US is already supplying the Brits under Lend Lease and the rapid collapse of the USSR might be enough to get America in the war early. The sinking of the Reuben James could serve as the cassus belli (thus no Japanese embargo). This would move the Pacific battle fleet and its carriers into the Atlantic and Med as they try and help the Brits shut down North Africa before the German Divisions can finish redeploying and before German pressure can bring Turkey into the war.

 

Its a race, can the massed naval strength choke Rommel fast enough to let the 8th Army redeploy into Palestine and Jordan to block off Vichy Syria. Iraq and India might be lost no matter what, but if the US/UK/Free France can keep North Africa and England itself free the eventual outcome is an Allied win after Berlin gets nuked.

[KingSargent]

Given the premise of the thread, the Middle East would have been occupied by German troops railed through Turkey, with Iran occupied via the Caucasus, I presume. Rommel would have been sidelined [heh!] by the real pros: Kleist, Hoeppner and Hoth. A Germany victorious in Russia likely would have closed the books on Vichy France by forcing an alliance and taken control of Oran-Bizerte, I assume, thereby solving your port problems, King. By then, I guess the RN and 8th Army would have been brought back around the Cape [dropping off the SA's] on the way back to Fortress England.

 

The new leaders of the West European satellite states would have been the military collaborators [a term instantly voided] of the various volunteer legions of 41-42, even if they did not get into action.

Konev SPECIFICALLY said panzerkorps in Libya to move into French North Africa. I doubt a supply line through Turkey would do much good. I have no doubt that your scenario is more likely, but I was responding to Konev's scenario - and all the others I have seen generated since since people said "Let's just add a couple Panzer Korps to the Axis OOB in Afrika Korps and the Germans don't have any supply problems...." back in the '60s.

 

The (Western) Allies, who were incomparably better at logistics than the Germans had supply problems in French North Africa despite having major ports available. (Of course they had a monumental clusterfukk for a supply system.)

 

The transport infrastructure in North Africa (any of it) was not capable of sustaining large bodies of troops. I doubt the transport infrastructure through Turkey and the ME was either. I am positive the Germans are not going to get to India unless the British cede it to them in the peace settlement.

[KingSargent]

If Turkey allowed it (possible, once the USSR was defeated), there'd be no problem. Firstly, there were railways across Turkey. Secondly, Cyprus couldn't hold with the Luftwaffe in Turkey. With Cyprus held by Germany, coastal shipping becomes pretty safe, & the ports of Mersin & Iskenderun open to German use. Turkey could supply all the food they'd need. Fuel shouldn't be too great a problem, if they had secure supply routes.

 

Those PanzerKorps could swing south through Syria, Palestine & Jordan, & SE into Iraq (note that there was a railway from the Mediterranean coast to Mosul, as well as through Turkey). With Mosul & Kirkuk taken, they'd have the oilfields there, from which there were pipelines to Tripoli (the one now in Lebanon) & Haifa. Big issue would be whether the refinery could be put back into use.

There are railroads and there are railroads. There was a RR in Algeria; it was inadequate to serve the civilian population, much less an Allied Army. I seriously doubt that that the RRs in Turkey and the ME had anything like the carrying capacity of RRs in Europe and the US.

 

What was the capacity of those ports you mention? You aren't going to supply an army through fishing villages.

[KingSargent]

I wonder if the Japanese Army might not want to begin advancing north out of Manchuria against the rump state of the Soviet Union and nix the Navy plans to move against the US and Southeast Asia. A little bit of pressue on the Dutch admin in the East Indies might keep the oil flowing.

The Japanese, having had their butts thoroughly kicked at Nomonhan in 1932, wanted no part of the Red Army. The Sovs left pretty strong forces in the east, and if the tank divisions didn't have T-34s, a BT could handle a Type 97. Then there is the lack of transport infrastructure.

 

Pressure on the Dutch admin in the NEI meant nothing. The "Free Dutch" government was a British puppet residing on CW soil. If the Brits wanted an embargo (which they did because the US did), they would get one.

 

FTM, if the US did get into the war a lot earlier, the embargo would be unnecessary.

[Richard Lindquist]

What was the capacity of those ports you mention? You aren't going to supply an army through fishing villages.

 

After the Brits chased the italians back, the Brits were trying to supply their relatively small force through Benghazi and it wasn't working very well.

[swerve]

There are railroads and there are railroads. There was a RR in Algeria; it was inadequate to serve the civilian population, much less an Allied Army. I seriously doubt that that the RRs in Turkey and the ME had anything like the carrying capacity of RRs in Europe and the US.

 

What was the capacity of those ports you mention? You aren't going to supply an army through fishing villages.

 

Agreed about the impracticality of extra PanzerKorps in Libya.

 

They weren't fishing villages. My 1930s Larousse says they both had populations in the low tens of thousands (1920s data). Mersin, AFAIK, was nothing but a port: it was (& is) the port of the much larger city of Adana. Iskenderun was & a smaller port.

 

Right about the railways, but limited capacity isn't no capacity, & the railways were (& still are) used below capacity. No doubt the Reichsbahn could have helped the Turks increase throughput.

[Junior FO]

...

Edited September 19, 2024 by Junior FO

[swerve]

What about the Berlin - Baghdad line that was largely financed by Germany prior to WWI? Still in use today AFAIK.

 

According to TCDD (Turkish State Railways, there were trains through to Baghdad until the service was suspended in March 2003.

 

http://www.tcdd.gov.tr/tcdding/ortadogu_ing.htm

 

It's what we've been discussing, along with the other tracks laid between the wars by the Turks, which by the late 1930s provided alternative routes to Diyarbakir, not far from the Iraqi border.