Guest JamesG123 Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 The spat of "what ifs","design this", and the current troubles in Myanmar got me thinking about what it would take to effect a change in this sad part of the world. So suppose... A group of serious men in saffron robes and suits come to you one day and offer you the job of organizing and leading an army to oust the ruling military junta in Myanmar. Compensation is modest initially, but has the promise to be lucrative if successful, not to mention a bunch of good Karma points. The situation and conditions: Immediately there are 10,000 Burmese volunteers of various ethnic groups available for training and to form the core of an army.Over the course of a year, it is possible to raise another 50,000 recruiting from refugees and foreign volunteers.A foreign cadre of experienced officers and trainer can be hired, but the bulk of the army is expected to be Burmese. US$100 million is available hiring, equipment purchases, and training/initial ops. Yearly, US$50 million is possible to sustain operations, more if operations are successful. Weapons and equipment will be purchased via "back channels" (ie: black market). It will be limited to used or second tier systems. Some light armor and towed artillery, but no modern tanks or SPGs. Aviation is limited to civilian market available helicopters and transports, mostly for budgetary reasons (they would quickly eat up the entire budget). Several ships are available for use. Two sea going ferries and a 10,000 ton freighter. A training and support base is located within another nation within the region with a notional blind-eye by the local government. Several national intelligence agencies are tactility providing support by screening the operation from potentially hostile governments and their intelligence organizations and by otherwise not interfering. Some notes: The Myanmar Tatmadaw has successfully fought several insurgencies over the years and so are experts at COIN operations. A guerilla campaign isn't likely to be successful. The intent is for a conventional military operation to decapitate the ruling military leadership, or otherwise force them to flee or surrender. The PRC will mostly likely provide material, adviser, and informational support. If things get desperate, Chinese "volunteers" may intervene unless diplomacy keeps them out of the fight. Here are some references:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ok/geos/bm.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmarhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_Armed_Forceshttp://www.myanmar.com/http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900S...VA?OpenDocumenthttp://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/board75.asp So if you are inclined to spend some time on this, how would you design the equipment and Order of Battle for this operation and what would be your basic strategy?
swerve Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 You'd need to be sure of what the Shan, Karen, etc would do, or you'd risk a messy clutch of insurrections against your new government. You want a new constitutional arrangement to keep them on side, negotiated in advance.
Bearded-Dragon Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 You'd also need somewhere to launch your invasion from (ie a friendly neighbouring state) or a massive investment in sea transport. The Japanese successfully moved from the south to the north of the country - the by far easiest route. The British on the way back, moved from the NW to the SE, a considerably more difficult route. I'd suggest studying Slim's "Defeat into Victory" not too much has changed as far as terrain and the problems it presents to any would be invader, I suspect. I'd suggest perhaps the best way to approach it might be an insurrection, to seize a seaport and the swift move in and unloading of your ships. Rangoon is the major port but not the only one. You might be able to count on the local population rising in support but it depends upon how cowered they have been after what, 40 years of military rule?
Corinthian Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 Follow Philippines 1983-1986. Have some back negotiations so that the junta will leave Burma for China (like Marcos family left Manila for Hawaii). Myanmar has the religion factor set (activist Buddhists like we had activist Catholics/Christians in 1986). All it needs is a pro-democracy insurgency, a failed coup, a martyr whose memory will be a rallying cry, and someone vocal whom the people could agree on to rule as President or whatever when the junta leaves. Give the junta an avenue to escape so they have an option (if none, they'll likely just massacre everyone opposing them).
Simon Tan Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 Forgte about it. That's not going to ahve the legs to beat the Tatmadaw. You want to fix the junta?...locate their next big social event and hit it with a pair of B-2s. Kill everyone present. Follow it up by vaporising their family palaces/mansions.Make no demands....just kill. And keep on until everyone who has cause to fear fless the country. Simon
Guest JamesG123 Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 B2s are out of budget I think, even for a rental. I've been google-earthing around Burma and its a pretty darn big place. Big cities, big river valleys, and friggin' big ass mountains. What is kind of interesting are the large "condos" surrounding several damed up rivers in the middle of the country. Alot look new and still under construction when the sat. picture was taken (I really REALLY wish it had a timestamp on what you were looking at). There also some other very large industrial facilities being built inland. Sleeply little Buddist country its not...
Marek Tucan Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 How hard would it be to wire some light transport aircraft for remote control? Don't need takeoff, you can use technique used by that explosive-laden B-17's attacking No Ball targets. Find meeting place of junta, load aircraft with explosives, make it a makeshift cruise missile (assuming you find a way to sneak it there - how's burmese AA capabilities?)Find a disgruntled higher-ranking officer (for whatever reason - disregarded in promotions, or just greedy), pay him enough he would turn coats when the time comes and assumes control over military or atleast portion. When he's not needed anymore, dispose of him to prevent him forming his own junta or hire hacker to fiddle with US military databases, sending air strikes to Burma instead to Eye-raq. I mean, those dumb yanks don't know geography anyway, so they won't notice, no? Depending on budget, hire Gurkha regiment
Marek Tucan Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 Or hire my character from Jagged Alliance 2, along with my selection of A.I.M. mercenaries
swerve Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 (edited) ... What is kind of interesting are the large "condos" surrounding several damed up rivers in the middle of the country. Alot look new and still under construction when the sat. picture was taken (I really REALLY wish it had a timestamp on what you were looking at). ... Might that be the new capital? Edited October 2, 2007 by swerve
Kensuke Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 (edited) I see this whole thing ending badly. With a few exceptions, mercenary operations 20th century have been one unmitigated disaster after another. Congo, Nigeria (Biafra), Angola, Equatorial Guinea. Take your pick. When they do succeed, its usually when the mercenaries are on the side of the government and who can therefore take advantage of the countries' infrastructure. Against Mayamar you'd be fighting a 12th largest military in the world, who has strong COIN training and reasonably good conventional warfare capabilities. With 100 million you're basically limited to an insurgency type war, and that won't take you very far because you have to think of the overhead. Those Burmese need to be trained, and that means hiring outside assistance that knows what its about. One thing I've noted over the years is that many civil wars that depend out outside assistance are over just as soon as one side gets a halfway decent air force. Myanmar has one. You're fucked. Your helicopters and light civil aircraft will get blown out of the sky by MiG-29s, upgraded J-7s, and Army troops with MANPADs. Your naval assets, such as they are, will be sunk by Myanmar Corvettes and Fast Attack Craft (armed with Chinese ASMs), and that would essentially limit you to nothing larger than a cigarette boat. Basically your supply lines to and from this "friendly country" are cut. And while we're on the subject: What friendly country? China? Nope. Bangladesh? Increasingly closely aligned with China. India? No sir. The last thing they want is to go back to a "East Pakistan" type situation (and you'd better not have any Muslims around, which you probably will considering that they claim persecution by the central government). Thailand? Probably not unless you promise to do something about the drug problem (see below). Laos? If you could give them access to your ports after you take back the country, its possible, but any help they give you would probably not be much. Then you'd have to think about where you're getting your money and equipment. You could do what damn near everybody in the region does and grow opium, but then you'd be branded a "narco-terrorist" and shunned by most of the civilized world. Black market weapons mean you have to get in bed with some unsavory characters like Lybia, Iran, and North Korea. Again, this won't make you very popular with the west. France and the US probably won't help because they (or rather their oil companies) have a gas pipeline going through the country, and as long as the current government doesn't give them too much problems, they'd probably be inclined to keep the status quo. It might be possible to get some back channel stuff from ASEAN, but I think Thomas already ranted about how incompetent they are. If you or any of your hired men are captured, they will be tortured, interrogated, and executed. I would most definitely decline to take this contract. *IF* you could get China to intervene, that would be one thing.......but you'd still be limited to hit and run tactics against rear areas and supply bases, with the lions share of the frontal fighting being done by the PLA. And its doubtful China really would want to intervene in the first place. As noted in the other thread, they're more likely to come to the aid of the regime itself. Not you. - John Edited October 2, 2007 by Kensuke
Marek Tucan Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 I would most definitely decline to take this contract. What about accepting, investing in ID change and in a nice Caribbean resort?
Delta65driver Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 One key word in fixing Burma, KAREN arm them to the teeth form alliance around them from other suppressed ethnic minorities and let them loose. Hell at one point the Karen were 9 miles from the outskirts of Rangoon. They probably could have taken the capital with some support..
Kensuke Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 What about accepting, investing in ID change and in a nice Caribbean resort? I'll drink to that. - John
Kensuke Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 Just updated my lengthy post with some additional observations. - John
Guest JamesG123 Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 I see this whole thing ending badly.Well yeah, but its just a hypothetical exercise... With a few exceptions, mercenary operations 20th century have been one unmitigated disaster after another. Well, I imagine the mercenaries in this case are Lafayette style ad visors only, and maybe some of the high-skill specialist (pilots, technicians, trainers, etc.) Against Mayamar you'd be fighting a 12th largest military in the world, who has strong COIN training and reasonably good conventional warfare capabilities.12th largest on paper. I've read that it is Iraqi hollow. It doesn't really take much to slap around a bunch of tribesmen with Enfields, but I'm sure their fieldcraft and knowledge of the local terrain/environment is very good. Largely undermanned and unmotivated. A decent PSYOPS program ought to knock it down even further.With 100 million you're basically limited to an insurgency type war, and that won't take you very far because you have to think of the overhead. Those Burmese need to be trained, and that means hiring outside assistance that knows what its about. The good thing about that side of the world is that you can hire and buy stuff pretty cheap.One thing I've noted over the years is that many civil wars that depend out outside assistance are over just as soon as one side gets a halfway decent air force. Myanmar has one. You're fucked.This is a problem. I am thinking some kind of strike against the airfields during the opening of the invasion to deny the use of the runways or otherwise take out the AC. But they have at least a dozen airfields, and I have yet to find their primary airbase. It would be very hard to neutralize them all and get all the planes without an Carrier or two's air wing... A good supply of MANPADs would of course be necessary regardless. Short and medium range SAMs would be nice too but thats kind of pushing it. Your naval assets, such as they are, will be sunk by Myanmar Corvettes and Fast Attack Craft (armed with Chinese ASMs),Yes, another problem. The navy would have to be caught in port and knocked out in the opening minutes of the attack. I like the idea of GA aircraft fitted for teleoperation and a bomb. Cheap cruise missiles. Then you'd have to think about where you're getting your money and equipment.I wasn't so much worried about that in this situation. The whole thing is a non-starter without financing. But a combination of Buddhist charities and donations, along with "investment" deals with foreign companies, along with maybe a little money from the CIA could possibly add up to alot. Yes there would of course deals and compromises that would have to be struck. Equipment wise, I donno, there is alot of Cold-War surplus laying around the world, especially in Eastern Europe. This is where the notional contacts with the spooks would have to come in. Its a shame the Chinese couldn't be turned to, NORENCO is a veritable one-stop Wal-Mart of military goods. If you or any of your hired men are captured, they will be tortured, interrogated, and executed. That is always the risk in this sort of endeavor isn't it?
Kensuke Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 (edited) This is a problem. I am thinking some kind of strike against the airfields during the opening of the invasion to deny the use of the runways or otherwise take out the AC. But they have at least a dozen airfields, and I have yet to find their primary airbase. It would be very hard to neutralize them all and get all the planes without an Carrier or two's air wing... A good supply of MANPADs would of course be necessary regardless. Short and medium range SAMs would be nice too but thats kind of pushing it. It's been tried. Biafran mercenaries used five commercial SAAB MFI-9Bs jury-rigged with 68mm rocket pods. Cost was about $200,000 in 1967 (minus ordnance), which would be about $5,000,000 million in todays money. They managed to take out a few Nigerian MiG-17s and Il-28s on the ground but couldn't do enough damage to make really any difference. Not surprisingly all five planes were later shot down or destroyed on the ground. In order to really make a dent you'd have to crater the runways and destroy most of the aircraft (the MiG-29 is rough field capable). Now multiple that by about 10 to 12, probably on simultaneous strikes across the country so you can maintain some element of surprise. This means you're either employing a standing air force that can carry the necessary ordnance, or you're buying things yourself (which is out of the question given the model you presented). Plus, the only reason why the Biafrans were even slightly successful is that they flew at extremely low level is a fairly permissive air defense environment. The Nigerians mostly had AAA concentrated in strong points and poor radar coverage. Contrary to popular belief, IR missiles like those employed in MANPADs can take out prop aircraft (as proven by the North Vietnamese against A-1 Skyraiders) Yes, another problem. The navy would have to be caught in port and knocked out in the opening minutes of the attack. I like the idea of GA aircraft fitted for teleoperation and a bomb. Cheap cruise missiles. Catching a maritime nation with all their ships in port would be extremely unlikely. You're talking about 1 Frigate, 4 Corvettes, and numerous PBs and FACs. Catching them at sea with half-assed maritime strike aircraft is also unlikely. It's a coastal Navy and you're in *THEIR* airspace, you would almost certainly will run afoul of the MAF. Thus it's not really too much different than attacking them in port. For the sake of argument, a better option might be to quietly mine the harbors somehow. I wasn't so much worried about that in this situation. The whole thing is a non-starter without financing. But a combination of Buddhist charities and donations, along with "investment" deals with foreign companies, along with maybe a little money from the CIA could possibly add up to alot. Yes there would of course deals and compromises that would have to be struck. CIA probably won't back you for the reasons I listed above. Although publicly the US has embargoed Myanmar there is sort of a wink-wink nudge-nudge agreement to maintain the status quo as long as there is a permissive business environment. You could maybe blow up the pipeline and then convince Chevron that extremists in the government did it, but I don't think that will wash. Myanmar is 70-75% Buddhist, with a reasonably large (and hated) Islamic minority. So your best bet is probably to go after the Islamic angle. Find some wealthy durka-durka and convince him that they're flushing copies of the Quran down the toilet. Or convince Thailand that you'll be the most badass drug enforcement agents ever. That will buy you some support, but it won't hand you the keys to the kingdom. Equipment wise, I donno, there is alot of Cold-War surplus laying around the world, especially in Eastern Europe. This is where the notional contacts with the spooks would have to come in. Okay, so let's say you buy some AK-47s, light machine guns, RPG-7s, SA-7s, mortars up to about 82mm, and some Toyota pickup trucks. Where does that get you? Its a shame the Chinese couldn't be turned to, NORENCO is a veritable one-stop Wal-Mart of military goods. NORENCO stuff can be purchased almost anywhere, but its really of no better quality than the stuff you could also get for the same money. - John Edited October 2, 2007 by Kensuke
Guest JamesG123 Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 (edited) In order to really make a dent you'd have to crater the runways and destroy most of the aircraft (the MiG-29 is rough field capable). Now multiple that by about 10 to 12... Convert a bunch of cargo planes into gunships armed with 20mm cannon and 75mm pack howitzers? Have them fly in under the guise of a new startup airline or international service, sort of a later day Trojan horse? For the sake of argument, a better option might be to quietly mine the harbors somehow.Hard to do secretly. Too easy to hit a foreign flagged ship and drag the UN into it, unless of course thats useful.... That will buy you some support, but it won't hand you the keys to the kingdom.Might as well convince Thailand to do the invasion for you... Okay, so let's say you buy some AK-47s, light machine guns, RPG-7s, SA-7s, mortars up to about 82mm, and some Toyota pickup trucks. Where does that get you?A pretty good insurgent force, but not one that can take on a standing army in an open fight... Edited October 2, 2007 by JamesG123
Sailor Lars Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 --send in some angry french, with CdG and a crapload of legionnaries.
Junior FO Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 (edited) ... Edited September 19, 2024 by Junior FO
X-Files Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 1-800-Bei-Jing Nothing else will be allowed to transpire down there, without proper clearance from the 21st century Warlords to the North.
DB Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 Give the top dozen people 100 million USD each, cash on the barrel, and guaranteed immunity in exchange for an orderly transition to a democratic government in 5? years. Link the payments to the realization of specific goals. By far the cheapest and easiest way of getting somewhere.Just for once, I'd agree with you, more or less. Any military intervention is going to kill a lot more than a few hundred priests David
Kensuke Posted October 3, 2007 Posted October 3, 2007 Convert a bunch of cargo planes into gunships armed with 20mm cannon and 75mm pack howitzers? Have them fly in under the guise of a new startup airline or international service, sort of a later day Trojan horse? You're looking at conversion costs and a pretty big and vulnerable airframe. USAF wasn't able to mount howitzers until the AC-130. You might be able to get some old C-130Bs, but these are well on their way to becoming deathtraps (see USFS experience with the C-130A firebombers). And a 75mm pack howitzer ain't gonna do shit to a re-enforced concrete runway. You'd be better off rolling 1000lb bombs and delayed action mines out the back. As usual, multiple this by 10 to 12 to ensure success. All would have to attack simultaneously. If any have to abort due to foul weather or whatever, you're screwed. - John
tanknut Posted October 3, 2007 Posted October 3, 2007 Just for once, I'd agree with you, more or less. Any military intervention is going to kill a lot more than a few hundred priests DavidIt could have been more, maybe in the thousands. And in 1988 the student death toll was anywhere from 3,000 to 10,000. And none of these incidents are counting the death toll for "normal anti guerilla" operations that happene every year day in day out where they are wiping out village after village of minorities in the jugle interior. And so what if it kills more then a "few hundred" monks, The French could have said that about the Bristish killing American colonialists prior to the revolutionary war to not get involved, not to arm us, or train us..But thank god our French brothers did not take that tact. You must fight for freedom, not sit down and say "why bother, the cost is too great." True Freedom is not cheap,a s the Iraqis are learnign for themselves.
tanknut Posted October 3, 2007 Posted October 3, 2007 Since When does Burma have a "good Navy" and a "decent air-force?" Compared to what? The only corvettes I am aware they have were 2 old ex-WW2 gun-boats and nothing they have in the air-force was half as good as the Muj faced in Afghanistan, and they did all right with what we supplied them.
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