Guest JamesG123 Posted September 29, 2007 Posted September 29, 2007 I donno if you guys are following the news on this situation. But its getting "interesting". A military run police state cutting phone and 'net links to the outside world, killing of demonstrators, whole villages disappearing from satellite photos... The place has an interesting history, run a search and check it out. Its a balkanization of several different ethnic groups bound together arbitrarily by colonial-era agreements, held together by the iron fist of a military junta. It has all the makings of a "failed state". I see a couple of possible things happening:1) The current trouble fizzling Tiananmen style back into the status quo (most likely). 2) The ruling military government relenting to the democracy movement (yeah... right).3) Civil war between the various groups and army commanders. What think ye?
Bluelight Posted September 29, 2007 Posted September 29, 2007 (edited) It appears the various western world governments are siding with the demonstrators. The more interesting spin to me is the global political spin. I found it odd that this is being framed as in China's backyard and a Chinese prestige problem with the new Olympics coming up. What I found even odder, is recent Chinese statements that they are actually responding to this type of pressure. It would appear to me the western powers are taking advantage of the situation to push the Chinese into acting on the world stage in a somewhat responsible manner. Edited September 29, 2007 by Bluelight
Sardaukar Posted September 29, 2007 Posted September 29, 2007 This might turn ugly. But, as always, freedom cannot be given, it can only be taken.
DB Posted September 29, 2007 Posted September 29, 2007 It's already ugly. The number of casualties from the night-time raids on the templates isn't going to be known for quite a while, and the BBC reporting indicates that there was a lot of blood shed during them. Interesting that the US Administration used Mrs. Bush to hint at the consequences for the love-fest that is supposed to be the 2008 Olympics. David
Junior FO Posted September 29, 2007 Posted September 29, 2007 (edited) .... Edited September 19, 2024 by Junior FO
Kensuke Posted September 30, 2007 Posted September 30, 2007 Wikipedia has an interesting article on the Myanmar Armed Forces. Seems to be that they're very well respected and feared. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Myanmar - John
Bluelight Posted September 30, 2007 Posted September 30, 2007 Wikipedia has an interesting article on the Myanmar Armed Forces. Seems to be that they're very well respected and feared. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Myanmar - John Interesting. Do you think it is likely that they would go against the Junta? On an off hand look, I would imagine that the officers and such are loyal to the Junta, years have gone by under military rule. From my perspective I am under the impression that government loyal thugs and competence are incompatible factors. Mainly due to competence requiring officers to be able to think for themselves (and their by cannot be trusted by an oppressive regime). If it is indeed competent, what are its chances of throwing their lot in with the people?
Corinthian Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 (edited) *rant* ASEAN is a useless POS really. They could've strongly condemned Myanmar, held emergency meetings, resolved to kick it out of the ASEAN, called for sanctions, etc etc etc. But nooooooooooooOOOOOOOOOooooooooOOOOOooooooooOooooo.... ASEAN is a joke, an exclusive and expensive golf club where its members are only heads of state and seasoned diplomats, wining and dining around, making speeches on how important SE Asia is, etc etc etc. *end rant* Unfortunately for the protesters in Myanmar, that country has nothing. No oil, no diamonds, no WMD programs, no visible genocide, nothing. With Aung San Suu Kyi still alive, they ain't got a martyr whose death can rally not just the whole populace but also world governments to finally topple the junta there. The junta doesn't give a shit really on world opinion. They all know that the world will just whine and utter this-and-that statements, an official condemnation from the UN, and that. At worst, economic sanctions, but we all know how that'll end up. The junta doesn't care and they know they can't be removed barring anything that threatens a region or the world, or the death of Suu Kyi by their orders. They know they don't have to listen to world opinion. They know they can get away killing demonstrators, foreign and local, and the whole messy affair will be forgotten in most people's minds soon enough. The way I see it, the junta gets toppled only if they have a very popular and vocal activist killed by the junta or some sort, ala Sen. Benigno Aquino in Marcos-era Philippines. Short of that, they'll stay in power much longer. ASEAN is a joke. Did I say that already? Edited October 1, 2007 by TomasCTT
kaikaun Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 *rant* ASEAN is a useless POS really. They could've strongly condemned Myanmar, held emergency meetings, resolved to kick it out of the ASEAN, called for sanctions, etc etc etc. But nooooooooooooOOOOOOOOOooooooooOOOOOooooooooOooooo.... ASEAN is a joke, an exclusive and expensive golf club where its members are only heads of state and seasoned diplomats, wining and dining around, making speeches on how important SE Asia is, etc etc etc. *end rant*Unfortunately for the protesters in Myanmar, that country has nothing. No oil, no diamonds, no WMD programs, no visible genocide, nothing. With Aung San Suu Kyi still alive, they ain't got a martyr whose death can rally not just the whole populace but also world governments to finally topple the junta there. The junta doesn't give a shit really on world opinion. They all know that the world will just whine and utter this-and-that statements, an official condemnation from the UN, and that. At worst, economic sanctions, but we all know how that'll end up. The junta doesn't care and they know they can't be removed barring anything that threatens a region or the world, or the death of Suu Kyi by their orders. They know they don't have to listen to world opinion. They know they can get away killing demonstrators, foreign and local, and the whole messy affair will be forgotten in most people's minds soon enough. The way I see it, the junta gets toppled only if they have a very popular and vocal activist killed by the junta or some sort, ala Sen. Benigno Aquino in Marcos-era Philippines. Short of that, they'll stay in power much longer. ASEAN is a joke. Did I say that already? On the contrary. Myanmar is very rich in natural resources. It has oil, gas, gemstones, minerals, lumber and fertile land. It has cheap and well-educated labor, good internal communications and access to the sea. When it first became independent, it was the most promising of all the SEA nations. It certainly has the attention of Western nations. The problem is precisely China. China covets Myanmar not only because of its energy resources, but more importantly because it gives China a route to the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean that bypasses the Malacca Straits, which is a potential choke point for its energy supply. China is already preparing to build an oil and gas pipeline from Yunnan province to the Myanmar port city of Sittwe. Presumably the rail and road link will also be augmented. China is also the junta's main shield on the UNSC, since it holds a veto. Myanmar also borders India, which China still considers a strategic rival in military terms. It is also precisely because of China that all outside attempts to help the country have failed and are doomed. China trades enough with Myanmar that sanctions are useless, even if one could be organized via the UNSC. China is also the country's main investor, meaning bans on investment in Myanmar do nothing but enrich China. Military assault upon Myanmar is extremely difficult, not only because of terrain and logistical difficulties, but the strength and experience of the Tatmadaw and the threat of Chinese intervention. Myanmar precisely is in China's backyard. It is not a client state, but the two are natural partners. Hence ASEAN's policy toward Myanmar. As long as China supports Myanmar, attempts to isolate or coerce it only serve to enrich China. Rather than pursue a useless and counterproductive, if principled, policy of isolating the regime, ASEAN hopes to at least do some good by engagement, while reducing the regime's dependency on China. If Myanmar becomes engaged and integrated into the region, rather than just with China, ASEAN would have a bargaining chip. As it is, even if ASEAN ejects Myanmar, they would just shrug and return to suckle at China's teat. The economic damage this action would cause would simply be too low at this point. The junta assigns no value whatsoever to international approval. It doesn't care if it is hated by everyone, as long as the Myanmar people continue to fear and obey them. They have no scruples, no better nature to appeal to. This is realpolitik, and it sucks.
Unreal John Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 It is very difficult for me to believe that any army whose first principle is political reliability and is used frequently against its own populace is more than moderately effective in combat. "Feared" I will go with. Unlike any failed state I can think of, Burma/Myanmar has a long history of being a unified realm. Wikipedia has an interesting article on the Myanmar Armed Forces. Seems to be that they're very well respected and feared. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Myanmar - John
Kensuke Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 Interesting. Do you think it is likely that they would go against the Junta? On an off hand look, I would imagine that the officers and such are loyal to the Junta, years have gone by under military rule. From my perspective I am under the impression that government loyal thugs and competence are incompatible factors. Mainly due to competence requiring officers to be able to think for themselves (and their by cannot be trusted by an oppressive regime). If it is indeed competent, what are its chances of throwing their lot in with the people? I don't know enough to make an informed decision as to their loyalty but the "second only to Vietnam part" is enough to give the PLA pause. They didn't do so hot in their war against Vietnam. If they do invade, it would give the rest of the world the first real look at their military capabilities in about two decades. - John
Junior FO Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 (edited) ... Edited September 19, 2024 by Junior FO
jakec Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 I don't know enough to make an informed decision as to their loyalty but the "second only to Vietnam part" is enough to give the PLA pause. They didn't do so hot in their war against Vietnam. If they do invade, it would give the rest of the world the first real look at their military capabilities in about two decades. - JohnAs is unfortunately often the case in the West, the much more successful performance of the PLA in the second Sino-Vietnamese War of 1984-89 is completely ignored. Many senior commanders of today's PLA cut their teeth in this conflict.
Guest JamesG123 Posted October 1, 2007 Posted October 1, 2007 The last ones who are going to militarily intervene in Burma are the Chinese. Yeah, the only way they would intervene would be to come to the aid of the Junta if it were threatened. They have a considerable investment in their relationship with the ruling generals.
tanknut Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 I can't wait to see the new rambo movie; So I can see Sylvester Stallone killing those Burmese army Fuckers. Burma: Thousands dead in massacre of the monks dumped in the jungle Thousands of protesters are dead and the bodies of hundreds of executed monks have been dumped in the jungle, a former intelligence officer for Burma's ruling junta has revealed. There were reports that many were savagely beaten at a sports ground on the outskirts of Rangoon, where they were heard crying for help. Others who had failed to escape disguised as civilians were locked in their bloodstained temples. There, troops abandoned religious beliefs, propped their rifles against statues of Buddha and began cooking meals on stoves set up in shrines That goes to show you that mindless brutality against civilians is not limited to the Muslim nations these days. Stallone and Crew Saw Myanmar Aftermath The U.S. Campaign For Burma, a Washington-based pro-democracy group, says more than 100 people were killed in downtown Yangon after truckloads of government troops fired automatic weapons last Thursday at thousands of demonstrators. It also claims that 100 students and parents were killed the same day at a high school in Tamwe, in northeastern Yangon, after troops shot at them as school let out. The Democratic Voice of Burma, a Norway-based dissident news organization, has received reports of soldiers burning protesters alive at the Yae Way cemetery crematorium on the outskirts of Yangon. The group also shot video Sunday of a dead monk, badly beaten and floating face down in a Yangon river.
Delta65driver Posted October 2, 2007 Posted October 2, 2007 I say desabilize the Junta by arming the various ethnic minorities that the junta has been trying to ethnically cleanse. The Karen are a very good choice to form this rebel army around. KInd of like Northern Alliance Style in Afganistan. The Karen , the Mon and the Arakanese would make a very formidable Alliance. At one point after Burmese Independence the Burmese military's most elite units and very capabel commanders were Karen. So historically these guys are not whimps. A few SF and SAS teams with plane loads of gear and some air support would probably do the job. The junta hasnt been in power long enough to totally brainwash the population thats why they are having control problems even with the majority population. The population which is a majority budhist are probably pretty pissed at seeing monks shot all they probably need is a little encouragement.
X-Files Posted October 3, 2007 Posted October 3, 2007 From the "Qu'elle Surprise" department. One correspondent in Rangoon told the BBC that people in the country's former capital were angry and frightened. The correspondent described how a middle-aged man in one of the city's tea shops whispered: "I really want change - but they have guns and we don't, so they'll always win." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7025357.stm
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