No Barbarosa

[Ken Estes]

A German theme that nobody had done anything about, even during Bismarck's empire building, when the Russians were so busy with the Turks that Poland was ripe for the taking.

Poland? What Poland? Germany wanted no more ethnic non-Germans, B considered Germany a 'sated' nation, and Mitteleuropa was a concept of economic expansion & domination. Even German colonial expansion was a sop to the public, Most German colonies being a waste. Sadly, it is all about Versailles and inflated WWI war aims.

[Guest aevans]

Poland? What Poland? Germany wanted no more ethnic non-Germans, B considered Germany a 'sated' nation, and Mitteleuropa was a concept of economic expansion & domination. Even German colonial expansion was a sop to the public, Most German colonies being a waste. Sadly, it is all about Versailles and inflated WWI war aims.

 

Exactly. Had Hitler and his cronies been just a little bit less competent as rabble rousers, there's reason to believe that a more conservative and much less adventurous Weimar would have restrained itself from doing anything totally stupid, even if it nibbled here and there.

[swerve]

Exactly. Had Hitler and his cronies been just a little bit less competent as rabble rousers, there's reason to believe that a more conservative and much less adventurous Weimar would have restrained itself from doing anything totally stupid, even if it nibbled here and there.

 

Ja. Let us speculate about a Weimar which doesn't crash economically in 1929, but has the sort of relatively minor depression the UK had (don't let's get into mechanisms, please!). Hitler got about 2-3% of the vote in 1928. He'd probably have stayed a fringe figure, scooping up more votes when the economy worsened, then losing them again when it picked up again after a couple of years.

 

An economically stable Weimar would have dominated Mitteleuropa industrially & financially, as it had already begun to do. German minorities, & locals who'd learnt German under German or Austrian rule, made it easy for Germans to operate without knowing local languages, & provided a pool of bilingual local representatives.

 

There may have been enough Austrians up for it that Anschluss would have been on the cards, by peaceful means. I can imagine the Czechs folding, perhaps not to the point of ceding territory, but granting German-majority areas considerable autonomy, & becoming effectively a German client state. Germany could have thrown its economic weight (& a hint of military pressure) around in local disputes, getting similar deals for Hungarians. Maybe even some minor border adjustments, such as Subotica. Use stroppy minorities, such as Croats in Yugoslavia, to put pressure on governments. Be nice to anyone who co-operates, diplomatically & with preferential access to the German market. Scare everyone with the Bolshevik threat. Promise to protect them from evil commies.

 

No need to invade anywhere.

Edited September 28, 2007 by swerve

[Darth Stalin]

Well, it seems that Stalin's plan was to wait until the Germany and Western Allies bleed each other into such extent that their nations would be so tired with war that the red Army shall be awaited as a "Peacemaker" and "Liberator" from the horror of war.

German decision to fortify Poland and prepare for long-term campaign against UK after finishing-off France... well, it also depends on what the planned to do with the Balkans, especially Romania.

The Soviets could then gain the time for:

1. prepare and enhance their own fortified positions (old Stalin line and new Molotov line)

2. conduct their reorganisation process, especially in armored troops (I wouldn't be surprised if they would disband some of newly-created Tank Corpses in order to keep the remaining on higher percentage of required vehicless and maintain higher combat-readiness; most of these formations suffered from lacks in all support vehicles). They would also introduce new armored vehicles, which is hardly to expect for Germans - maybe except giving a L48 75mm gun to Pz IV, which could be forced by meeting against British Matildas in the Africa. Theese include a far better version of T-34 - the T-34M, with 3-man turret, radio, adn well-proven (and far better than Christie's) torsion bar suspension. The tank was to enter mass production from September 1941, completely replacing initial T-34s. Waiting until 1942 would be a good option for Stalin in this case...

they also planned a new variant of KV - the KV-3 with 7 roadwheels and longer 107mm cannon, intended to fire at bunkers from longer distance than the KV-2 could. They would also field new T-50 light tank, designed on a idea taken from Pz III; yet these would mostly support the infantry. Possibly the KV-1 would also been reworked, what was don only in late 1942 as KV-1s; with the no-war time the disadvantages of initial design could be quickly removed and introduced into mass production.

 

Also new planes could sweep in in greater numbers and pilots would have more time to be trained and familiarise with these planes. I can also say that without the initial disaster, necessity bof removing the industry to the Urals and enough time to make detailed assessments of new equipment it could well be that Ilyushin Il-2 would be superseded with Sukhoi Su-6, being far better aircraft - better designed, produced, armed and more intelligently designed at all. Also the Yakovlev planes could be replaced by Polikarpov'sI-185 fighter - veery powerful and able to be produced in all I-16 producing factories. Also the MiG-3 could be worked up, possibly with a little more powerful engine and with better armaments (possibly two 20mm cannons instead of 12,7mm guns?), and the LaGG-3 fighter could also be worked up with all its "children age" faults removed. Also the Pe-8 strategic bomber could be up-worked and produced, maybe not in a very large numbers, yet in some hundreds, to re-equip the DBA units from aged TB-3.

Also the production of Li-2/PS-82 (license built variant of C-47/DC-3) could be increased, to allow parachute formations better training and provide them more transport capabilities. Not to mention medium bombers - the Pe-2, possibly Tu-2, Il-4 (DB-3F)... another heavy bomber Yermolayev Yer-2 (maybe with time to improve its engines it would also appear as quite capable aircraft).

 

The Soviets would then still be free for many options; the Allies planned in early 1940 a series of air attacks againts Soviet oil fields in Caucasus (as Soviet Union was seen as Hitler's ally), yet after fall of France Stalin could easily turn into a possible ally of the West and could earn a lot from that perspective - possibly still coming industrial help from the USA 9which it got before the war, at least partially stopped after the Winter War, but...); the Germans would also sell him very iinteresting stuff for Soviet raw materials => possibly he could get the rest of armament and equipment for Lutzow heavy cruiser (Pronz Eugen design, sold to USSR but never completed), and his own shipbuilding program could also give him new fine ships - the battleships (Sovetskii Soyuz class) and more heavy cruisers of project 26bis (upgraded Kirov) - at least 2 of each were to serve in each fleet, maybe then would follow more) and started Chapayev-class light cruisers.

 

Of course not to mention the increased number and quality of Soviet artillery, with many heavy and super heavy guns for breaking through the defenses => lessons learned in Finland rewarded in assault of Koenigsberg...

 

In case the Germans send more troops to Africa and clash there with British, the Soviets could react in MidEast; also in Turkey. And what in case of Romania? Shall it be also so strongly defended as Poland? Even with possible German garrisons there?

The whole Balkans – well, possibly the Fall Marita would go the same way as it did, yet what then? german involvement in Spain would be quite beneficiary for Soviets Without the need for fight in USSR, the Germans could give more resources to U-boat production, thus making the British situation more complicated and heavier; they could also attack and capture Malta, yet with heavy losses. However, after the USA would join the war (I don’t think there would be any changes in Japanese and US policy) the Allies would be in slowly bettering situation... yet still heavy and drainingt many resources on fighting the German war machine. Then maybe more pressure would be put on destroying German petrochemical industry than on bombing their cities.

With Soviets having some hundreds Pe-8 and Yer-2 (maybe even more) they could join the war also with massive attacks against Ploesti fields from Crimea. And I don’t think the German defenses could withstand for very long – remember, that the Russians were the first to succesfully break prepared defenses during the Great War – the Brusilov’s offensive in 1916...