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Posted (edited)

TTK's post in the thread below was a good one.

 

A Niger vs. Lybia war seems interesting, and wholly plan-able seeing as its a nation vs. nation war instead of a stupid a tribal dispute.

 

Although, in order to do a really good job of giving Niger an army to meet the threat, I'd first have to know the topography. If the 220mi border with Lybia is good tank country than Niger is fucked. There is some hills in the North that might make a good defense line. The 90mm on the Panhards would be marginal against a T-55 and largely useless against the T-62 and T-72. Lybia could also bring a crushing weight of artillery to bear. Air battle? Forget it. Niger has nothing.

 

Lybia's Army:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Army

 

Niger's Army:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Army

 

More than likely it's off to China to buy RPGs and MANPADs. Or hope that Morocco, Algeria, Chad, and/or Nigeria can intervene.

 

Niger's defense budget is $160 million, which accounts for 1.6% of their GDF. Assume you are able to raise that as an emergency measure. Say to about 5%.

There are French, Chinese, and America military advisers present.

 

Ideas?

 

- John

Edited by Kensuke
Posted

Libya would be hard pressed to maintain logistics support. With Niamey so far from the border, there is plenty of open space for Nigerien forces to operate like the Tchadians did - use toyota 4x4s to conduct raids on Libyan supply and service convoys and use cheap PRC or Russian AT weapons to even the tank field. I don't see how Libya could win, barring a premature total collapse of Niger's civil society.

Posted

A cursory look at Google Maps suggests that Lybian forces would have to travel about 2000 Km over what loos (albeit at poor reoslution) like hellishly harsh / dry / roadless terrain.

 

I assume all the russky tanks (especially ones maintaiend by Libyans) woul break down before they get to the border...

 

Havign made that half-assed statement, they were able to bug the Chadians, but performing very poorly.

Posted

I see no reason why the Lesbians..I mean Libyans would not be able to cream the pathetic puny Niger military.

 

They could arm the Tauregs to raid behind Niger's lines and supplies and logistics:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6983929.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6232390.stm

 

And their air power would dominate Niger, they could land paratroopers in their capital, they have done it before recently in the Central African Republic's civil war I see no reason why they could not Lick Niamey as well.

Posted (edited)
I see no reason why the Lesbians..I mean Libyans would not be able to cream the pathetic puny Niger military.

 

They could arm the Tauregs to raid behind Niger's lines and supplies and logistics:

...

And their air power would dominate Niger, they could land paratroopers in their capital, they have done it before recently in the Central African Republic's civil war I see no reason why they could not Lick Niamey as well.

 

Hmm. If they couldn't do it to the pathetic puny Tchadian army in the 1980s, when Libya was far better armed than now, why should they be able to do it to Niger now?

 

Everything you suggest, they tried back then. Too inept to make it work. They intervened in the Uganda-Tanzania war in 1979, & ended up with the humiliation of Tanzania taking prisoner all the Libyan airborne troops who were aiding Uganda. Not much use landing them, if they then lose.

Edited by swerve
Posted (edited)
And their air power would dominate Niger, they could land paratroopers in their capital, they have done it before recently in the Central African Republic's civil war I see no reason why they could not Lick Niamey as well.

 

...until Mirage 2000s appear in the skies over Tripoli. What fun is knocking around the poorest country in the world when its former colonial master will show up on your doorstep the minute you stop playing fair?

Edited by FlyingCanOpener
Posted (edited)
Hmm. If they couldn't do it to the pathetic puny Tchadian army in the 1980s, when Libya was far better armed than now, why should they be able to do it to Niger now?

 

Everything you suggest, they tried back then. Too inept to make it work. They intervened in the Uganda-Tanzania war in 1979, & ended up with the humiliation of Tanzania taking prisoner all the Libyan airborne troops who were aiding Uganda. Not much use landing them, if they then lose.

 

 

Chad's military is not puny by Sub-Saharan African standards. In terms of opposition forces to Libya we are talking about Niger = 4,000 man army vs. Chad's 40,000 man military. besides, all Libya needs to do is land minimal troops, and give air-support and weapony to the native Niger Taureg rebels and more or less use the Afghan model that we did in 2001 to overthrow the Taliban.

Edited by tanknut
Posted
Chad's military is not puny by Sub-Saharan African standards. In terms of opposition forces to Libya we are talking about Niger = 4,000 man army vs. Chad's 40,000 man military. besides, all Libya needs to do is land minimal troops, and give air-support and weapony to the native Niger Taureg rebels and more or less use the Afghan model that we did in 2001 to overthrow the Taliban.

 

Make comparisons based on the time being discussed, not the situation now. Go & look up Tchadian forces at the time of the wars with Libya, & examine how their numbers changed. Also look at how allegiances of rebel groups changed. the Libyans will remember what you appear to be unaware of, that arming a rebel group is arming a potential enemy (you really, really, need to read something about the history of Libyan involvement in Tchad), particularly as the Touaregs will know another thing you seem not to, i.e. that Gaddafi is a pan-Arabist, keen on Arabising non-Arab minorities such as Berbers - and Touaregs.

 

The Touaregs do not consider Libya a friend. Gaddafi's tried to use them before as a stick to beat neighbours, & the Touaregs do not remember it fondly. He lied to them, used them as cannon-fodder, & betrayed them. Another part of local history you need to read about before pontificating on how Libya could use them as allies.

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