Cuban Missile Crisis

[RETAC21]

8 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Seems like their sources are frozen in time....According to this link, "The crisis had in large part been mitigated due to the placement of an incredible CIA source within the Soviet GRU; Colonel Oleg Penkovsky. He provided accurate intelligence on missile placement in Cuba. The CIA went to great lengths to protect his identity, including giving the impression that the information was coming from multiple sources, not just one.”

But in reality, “But it wasn’t until nearly thirty years afterward that we learned, from General Gribkov’s testimony at a January 1992 conference here in this room in Havana, that the nuclear warheads for both tactical and strategic nuclear weapons had already reached Cuba before the quarantine line was established—162 nuclear warheads in all. If the president had gone ahead with the air strike and invasion of Cuba, the invasion forces almost surely would have been met by nuclear fire, requiring a nuclear response from the United States.

At the January 1992 Havana conference, we on the U.S. Side were shocked by this information.” (http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_11/cubanmissile.asp )

So now we know that Colonel Oleg Penkovsky’s information was not accurate (or, another option, this information was manipulated by somebody in US Intelligence community to make US decision makers believe it is safe to attack Cuba). If information was not manipulated, then it makes fairytale story of “Penkovsky was cremated alive” look like perfect cover of successful disinformation campaign.

You are reading something that is not there, It's not one or the other.

Penkovsky provided intel on "plans and descriptions of the nuclear rocket launch sites on Cuba to the West. This information allowed the West to identify the missile sites from the low-resolution pictures provided by US U-2 spy planes. The documents provided by Penkovsky showed that the Soviet Union was not prepared for war in the area, which emboldened Kennedy to risk the operation in Cuba."

Nothing on the warheads themsleves, nor, more importantly, on the delegation of launch authority to the local commanders. If a nuclear warhead had gone off in the invasion beaches, or the US, then good-bye USSR.

"SIOP-62, describing a massive strike with the entire US arsenal of 3,200 warheads, totaling 7,847 megatons, against the USSR, China, and Soviet-aligned states with urban and other targets being hit simultaneously. Nine weapons were to be "laid down" on four targets in Leningrad, 23 weapons on six target complexes in Moscow, 18 on seven target areas in Kaliningrad, etc.

Weapon scientist, George Rathjens, looked through SAC's atlas of Soviet cities, searching for the town that most closely resembled Hiroshima in size and industrial concentration. When he found one that roughly matched, he asked how many bombs the SIOP "laid down" on that city. The reply: one 4.5 megaton bomb and three more 1.1 megaton weapons in case the big bomb was a dud (the Hiroshima bomb was 12.5 kilotons).[31] The execution of SIOP-62 was estimated to result in 285 million dead and 40 million casualties in the Soviet Union and China."

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, he didn't tell them where the sites were. Very clearly nobody at CIA knew they were there till USAF U2s found them. That was the start of the crisis, not Penkovsky telling them they were there.

The real surprise at that conference was the allegation a Soviet doctor skipper, supported by the political officer, nearly put a nuclear torpedo into a US escort carrier. Though as the important principles were already dead (the exec who apparently talked them out of it had previously been on K19 iirc, and latterly got cancer) it's difficult to know how seriously to take it.

 

[Roman Alymov]

55 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

You are reading something that is not there, It's not one or the other.

 

I am reading what is written on the link provided – and, as we now know, information provided both by Penkovsky and all other UA&Co sources  was so inaccurate that when, decades later, US high ranks learned the truth they were, in their own words, shocked by how close they were to nuclear war. If it is not indication of how inaccurate was initial information – then I do not know what is “inaccurate”.

 Re “good-bye USSR.“ – I think this was clearly answered by President Castro

At the January 1992 Havana conference, we on the U.S. Side were shocked by this information. And so during that conference, I asked President Castro three questions:

1. Were you aware the nuclear war- heads were in Cuba?

2. If so, would you have recommended their use?

3. If the nuclear weapons had been used, what would have been the outcome for Cuba?

President Castro’s answer sent a chill down my spine. He replied:

Now, we started from the assumption that if there was an invasion of Cuba, nuclear war would erupt. We were certain of that ... we would be forced to pay the price, that we would disappear.... Would I have been ready to use nuclear weapons? Yes, I would have agreed to the use of nuclear weapons.…

And where would the conflict have ended? The answer, I believe, is: in utter disaster, not only for Cuba, but for the Soviet Union, my own country, and the rest of the world as well.

And by Soviet participants

McNamara: I understand that General [Issa] Pliyev initially had the authority to use the tactical nuclear weapons, but that authority was withdrawn on October 27. Tell me, do you believe Pliyev would have used tactical nuclear weapons in the event of an American invasion, even though Moscow had rescinded permission to do so?

Kornienko: It is of course impossible to say with any degree of certainty. But under very difficult circumstances—via your massive planned invasion of Cuba—it is not out of the question that he would have felt it was his duty to give his troops all the weapons he had at his disposal, including the tactical nuclear weapons.

Leonov: I had an opportunity to talk with the commander of coastal defense, which also had tactical nuclear weapons. He said, if he didn’t have orders from Moscow, but if he was in danger of being destroyed by American paratroopers, then of course he would not let his weapons be destroyed. He said of course we all would have died, but that is the way any commander would have responded.

McNamara: Exactly!

Leonov: During the missile crisis, the Soviet sailors and soldiers on the island were dressed in Cuban uniforms, even though they had Soviet uniforms with them. On the morning of October 27, they received orders to wear their Soviet uniforms. Why? Because they were told they were preparing for battle, and they wished to die in the uniforms of their own country. This is very important, it seems to me. Not only the Cubans were prepared to fight to the death, but the Soviets as well. This was the situation. They believed they were about to be destroyed, and they wished to behave honorably, as soldiers. Pliyev was a very good soldier, a tough soldier, as he proved in the Second World War. In this situation, it is inconceivable to me that he would have neglected to arm and fire his tactical nuclear weapons! Inconceivable!

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its poorly worded, but what it does mean is he gave accurate information on missile placement methods that had been used in Cuba. Used in Cuba because they had been used anywhere else Strategic Rocket Forces put missiles.

Look, dont take my word for it. Go get a copy of the transcripts of the President Kennedy recordings during the Crisis. Nowhere will it say 'Our Joe in Russia warned us about this'. It was the reverse, it was the USAF who filmed it, and had it pointed out by photo interpreters what the objects were, using the data Penkovsky gave them.

As the Naftali book points out, this wasnt actually the first missile warning. A senator had warned in congress that the Soviets were emplacing missiles, warned by a consituent who had a relative there who had seen missiles being pulled by tractors IIRC. But the CIA examined the claims, and concluded they were probably SAM 2 which they already knew were going in there. They might even have been right.

Kick it around as many times as you want,nobody knew the missiles were there till the U2 filmed them,and that included Penkovsky. The information Penkovsky gave was accurate, and thank your stars for it, because it probably saved your country from a nuclear war. Ever wonder what the US would have done if those missiles had been emplaced and ready to go on Cuba? You really should.

As for Castro, Its been proven many times that anything he said is to be treated with extreme caution. Even Khruschev worked that one out. You should read his commentary to Khruschev where he said he was willing to sacrifice his country in a nuclear war as long as it resulted in the victory of world Socialism. He was bloody mad.

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/msc_cuba016.asp

https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/msc_cuba018.asp

As far as the nuclear weapons, McNamara in that second link says 'McNamara: It's not likely, but it's conceivable the nuclear warheads for these launchers are not yet on Cuban soil.' But of course, he was refering to the MRBM's. It was the tactical nuclear warheads, the ones that would have been used on the invasion, that were the surprise.

[Harold Jones]

Came across this article in Foreign Affairs using some newly declassified info from the Soviet side to draw some parallels with the invasion of Ukraine.

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/missile-crisis-secret-history-soviet-union-russia-ukraine-lessons

Quote

Top Soviet commanders also wanted to conceal the true purpose of Operation Anadyr—even from much of the rest of the Soviet military. The official documents, part of the recently declassified trove, referred to the operation as an “exercise.” Thus, the greatest gamble in nuclear history was presented to the rest of the military as routine training. In a striking parallel, Putin’s misadventure in Ukraine was also billed as an “exercise,” with unit-level commanders being left in the dark until the last moment.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Thats really interesting,  thanks for that.

[Sardaukar]

Good stuff, thanks!

[Perun]