Jump to content

Viva La France


tanknut

Recommended Posts

According to recent demographics France will supersede Germany as the most populous and dominate country in all of Western Europe within the next 50 years. By the year 2050 France will have a population of 75 million people compared with it's closest European rival Russia (of eastern European hemisphere) which is expected to fall to only 75 to 100 million by that time.

 

With France as the most powerful country in Western Europe (and quite possibly all of Europe) by 2050 what can we expect from European foreign policy with a Franco super-power and how should we adapt our long-term military planning to this contingency?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 87
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Superpowers are made by industry and economical stuff, not by people. so what if France has more people than Germany (82 million germans) they have a very limited military and they are not very rich.

200790[/snapback]

 

 

Not very rich?!

By whose standards?

They seem pretty rich to me otherwise they would not be on the G-8!

Besides, as Germany's population ages-they retire-which means less workers less output less GNP. At France stays relatievely young they will have a larger workforce, larger economy, more productivity which equals a better economy then Germany since they will be yopunger and a more vibrant workforce. It also means btw more people of military age to enlist or draft in case of war as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not very rich?!

By whose standards?

They seem pretty rich to me otherwise they would not be on the G-8!

Besides, as Germany's population ages-they retire-which means less workers less output less GNP. At France stays relatievely young they will have a larger workforce, larger economy, more productivity which equals a better economy then Germany since they will be yopunger and a more vibrant workforce. It also means btw more people of military age to enlist or draft in case of war as well.

200809[/snapback]

 

A lot of France's 'young' population are Muslims, and most of them are unemployed AIUI. Vibrant they ain't

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At France stays relatievely young they will have a larger workforce, larger economy, more productivity which equals a better economy then Germany since they will be yopunger and a more vibrant workforce. It also means btw more people of military age to enlist or draft in case of war as well.

200809[/snapback]

 

In 2050 your "younger and more vibrant workforce" will consist of about 50% muslims, descendants and immigrants from third world countries. (That is, if the French government doesn't shut the door very soon). As we have seen all over Western Europe, this leads to "ghettoisation", and splitting of the population. This does not lead to economic growth, on the contrary.

 

In case France go to war in 2050, 50% of the enlisted or drafted soldiers could be muslims. Dependent of what country France will go to war against, this fact could have great impact of the effectiviness of the French forces. As we have seen by recent polls amongst the muslim population in UK, a great deal of the muslims feel greater loyalty to fellow muslims in other countries than to the country in which they live.

 

Actually, because of the above stated fact, I am afraid that France in 2050 will be more like a big Lebanon than anything else, also economically. Paris will have more than enough coping with internal unrest, than to act like an international superpower, even in Europe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i can't believe what i've read so far...i mean, are you guys limited...oh wait, have you ever bean to France?

 

ok.

 

so i don't know where tank nut gets his info but Russias population is already bigger than that, so it is for Germany.

 

then, we don't want to go in war with anybody, and we'll never be a threat to our US or Nato allies !!!

 

as for economie, we fight all the time with UK and Germany for the 3rd world economical power place.

 

we have the biggest army of west europe, we are engaged in many missions and we have the money. we are among the world leaders in air industry ( ariane rocket; airbus ) ; trains; cars;...we are a booster for the euro and th EU . we are the first visited country in the planet, and i could cary on and on so don't worry for us.

 

the EU: we are now heading for a euroarmy (look it up on the net ) and it has already acomplished missions (test missions ) in the balkans and africa.

 

we have , with the other european stats buddies, top of technologie in land, air and sea.

 

the curency of oil barrels could become the EURO .

 

again, even with 3 million activ troops ( EU ) , we remain the best allie the US can have.

 

as for the muslims, oh man don't worry about them, the door ARE closed and as you can tell, these days they aren't very popular among the " ouest " public...and they won't be 50% of french youth. they're more intrested in dealing drugs to buy a BMW than to serve this contry.

my muslim collegues however are as french as i am and grew up in this contry with the same ideas and hopes for the futur, they are ready to die for France, they don't even speak any arabic !

 

in this case, the US by 2050 will be speaking spanish...as it's the case today when army recruters have to start knowing better spanish considering what you get as young blood in the army.

 

in 2050, being french won't be a big deal as it will be to be a European, with a strong economy, money, armed forces (police / army ), with the best comunication systems, motorway, train, airlines...

 

 

minorities will always remain minorities.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, because of the above stated fact, I am afraid that France in 2050 will be more like a big Lebanon than anything else, also economically. Paris will have more than enough coping with internal unrest, than to act like an international superpower, even in Europe.

200830[/snapback]

 

Stop it!....you're scaring the children.... :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I say we all get together and pre-empt them!!!!

 

Nuke them now while they are not expecting it!

 

Do it!  BEFORE ITS TO LATE!!!!

 

:blink:

201115[/snapback]

From obit of course. It's the only way to be sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i can't believe what i've read so far...i mean, are you guys limited...oh wait, have you ever bean to France?

 

I have stepped in some of the dogshit lying all around on the streets in the Quartier Latin in Paris, yes.

 

then, we don't want to go in war with anybody, and we'll never be a threat to our US or Nato allies !!!

 

Of course not. Why should you? You are allways surrendering anyway.

 

as for economie, we fight all the time with UK and Germany for  the 3rd world economical power place.

 

Not exactly. USA numero uno GDP. China, GDP in 2004: USD 7.262 trillion. Japan, GDP in 2004: USD 3.745 trillion. India, GDP in 2004: USD 3.319 trillion. Germany, GDP in 2004: USD 2.362 trillion. UK, GDP in 2004, USD 1.782 trillion. France, GDP in 2004, USD 1.737 trillion. That is number 7. If Russia continues its economic growth as seen the last years, France will be number 8 in 2008. But you have good self-confidence, at least...

 

we have the biggest army of west europe, we are engaged in many missions and we have the money. we are among the world leaders in air industry ( ariane rocket; airbus ) ; trains; cars;...we are a booster for the euro and th EU . we are the first visited country in the planet, and i could cary on and on so don't worry for us.

 

Planes and trains perhaps (Airbus is not a French company, but you have Dassault), but French cars I wouldnt talk to loud about. I dont know anybody who has a Peugeot, Renault or Citroen as their Nr 1 Dreamcar.

 

again, even with 3 million activ troops ( EU ) , we remain the best  allie the US can have.

 

As we have seen lately, yes...

 

as for the muslims, oh man don't worry about them, the door ARE closed and as you can tell, these days they aren't very popular among the " ouest " public...and they won't be 50% of french youth. they're more intrested in dealing drugs to buy a BMW than to serve this contry.

 

I think I read somewhere that about 40% of all schoolchildren in France now are first or second generation immigrants, most of them muslims.

 

About drugs and BMW: Yes, it must be a gene thing.

 

in 2050, being french won't be a big deal as it will be to be a European, with a strong economy, money, armed forces (police / army ), with the best comunication systems, motorway, train, airlines...

201094[/snapback]

 

...biggest egos, whitest flags...

 

:P I am out of this discussion now. Seriously.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not exactly. USA numero uno GDP. China, GDP in 2004: USD 7.262 trillion. Japan, GDP in 2004: USD 3.745 trillion. India, GDP in 2004: USD 3.319 trillion. Germany, GDP in 2004: USD 2.362 trillion. UK, GDP in 2004, USD 1.782 trillion. France, GDP in 2004, USD 1.737 trillion. That is number 7. If Russia continues its economic growth as seen the last years, France will be number 8 in 2008. But you have good self-confidence, at least...

 

Unfortunatly you have chosen the one of the worst measure of a country's economic power. GDP PPP, this is the gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity. There are two things wrong with this calculation.

 

Firstly GDP is not in my opinion a particulary good comparitor of national wealth. It is an out of date measure because it does not take into account transnational companies. The wealth earned from a product is credited tot he country in which it is made, no account is take as to who owns the factory. As a result countries like India and China where there are large amounts of foreign owned businesses will have a distorted GDP as the value created in these factories is credited directly to China and India. GNP is the alternative calculation which takes into account who owns businesses, thus a factory in China would contribute wages to the Chinese economy and profits to the country in which it is owned.

 

Secondly the PPP method is an attempt to take into account the differences between local prices to give an idea of the standard of living in a country. Essentially a basket of goods is bought in each country and then is divded by the national income. However this is an imaterial factor at an international trading level becuase if India or China wants to buy steel or oil they will have to buy it at the same rate as anyone else.

 

Thus as a result if you are trying to assess national financial power the best metric is still GNP by exchange rate. If you were an economic researcher and you have a great deal of time on your hands you could attempt to ceate a PPP metric based on a specific task or industry such as a military power index where you assess the local cost of building an equivilent army and then compare that to national income.

 

The GNP by exchange rate is as follows: (Source World Bank 2004)

 

1 United States $12,150,931

2 Japan $4,749,910

3 Germany $2,488,974

4 United Kingdom $2,016,393

5 France $1,858,731

6 China $1,676,846

7 Italy $1,503,562

8 Canada $905,629

9 Spain $875,817

10 Mexico $703,080

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the EU: we are now heading for a euroarmy (look it up on the net ) and it has already acomplished missions (test missions ) in the balkans and africa.

 

we have , with the other european stats buddies, top of technologie in land, air and sea.

 

and I thought French comedy died with Jacques Tati. Do you live with M Chirac? I ask as you appear to have missed the French non vote for the EU Constitution and the rising levels of discontent elsewhere :D

 

as for the muslims, oh man don't worry about them, the door ARE closed and as you can tell, these days they aren't very popular among the " ouest " public...and they won't be 50% of french youth. they're more intrested in dealing drugs to buy a BMW than to serve this contry.

my muslim collegues however are as french as i am and grew up in this contry with the same ideas and hopes for the futur, they are ready to die for France, they don't even speak any arabic !

201094[/snapback]

That's exactly what they used to say here in perfidious Albion. Until 7 Juillet. And your Moslem community is a lot larger, segregated and alienated than the British. How many Moslems hold government office? Not one AFAIK.

 

Overall I think you'd be well advised to take off the rose tinted spectaces and ditch the complacency, mate.

 

all the best

 

BillB

Link to comment
Share on other sites

and I thought French comedy died with Jacques Tati. Do you live with M Chirac? I ask as you appear to have missed the French non vote for the EU Constitution and the rising levels of discontent elsewhere :D

That's exactly what they used to say here in perfidious Albion. Until 7 Juillet. And your Moslem community is a lot larger, segregated and alienated than the British. How many Moslems hold government office? Not one AFAIK.

 

Overall I think you'd be well advised to take off the rose tinted spectaces and ditch the complacency, mate.

 

all the best

 

BillB

201337[/snapback]

 

of course we voted NO, it just mean we don't agry with some part of the constitution and we're waiting for another one... but that has nothing to do with what i posted. the first EU crisis reaction batle groups will be ready by 2007 .

acording to our american friends here, all Europe by 2050 would be 50% muslim?

come on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you were an economic researcher

 

As you can see, I am not. I am only a (gun loving) lawyer. And as you know, the only aspect of economy we are interested in, is how much money we can get from our clients. ;)

Edited by zakk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Zakk's trolling aside and reguarding demography:

 

 

From what I've read, according to the current estimations, France will be on par with Germany, not over it.

 

Now, I don't give any credit to such long term estimations. In 1920, everybody believed that France would see is population drop to 30 millions (from 40) by 2000. WW2 happened, result: 10 more million frenchmen in 1960, 20 in 1990...

 

Now, if you look at the demographic history of France, it followed a completely different course from the other european countries.

 

8 millions (12 before the fall of the roman empire) by the 6th century.

Huge demographic growth by the 11th century, up to 17 millions by the 14th century IIRC. 1/3 lost to the plague.

 

20 millions by the end of the 18th century.

 

35 millions by the middle of the 19th century.

 

40 millions by the beginning of the 20th century, until 1946.

 

62 millions nowadays.

 

 

If you compare the demographic evolution of France with UK's or Germany, it's quiet the opposite.

 

The 11th century growth was much higher in France due to the rather nice climate and vast areas available, in a time when demography was a direct result of the agriculture (and a cause too. That's why France, which was in the past covered by forests has been intensively deforested). With the low effectiveness of the agriculture, it was more difficult to increase the production in UK or Germany, because of their respective climates.

 

17 millions inhabitants at the eve of the great plague was huge. In comparison, England had just say, 4 millions to give you an idea. France continued to grow faster than its neighbours until the middle of the 17th century. Then the birthrate, even if still high for nowadays standards began to decrease. It's also related to the beginning of the dechristianisation of France, which began by the 1630's (see the studies based on parochial registers. People would not attend systematically to the mess, or bother to call the priest when one would die). This dechristianisation is related to the decline of the power of the Church over the population, overtaken by the absolute monarchy.

 

France reached its demographic maturity by the middle of the 19th century. It's not because of economy, nor available space. With the industrial revolution France experienced an huge increase of wealth and people lived better. And France is larger than UK for example. It's just that France ended its demographic cycle earlier than Germany, Italy (which ended its own cycle last) or UK. People tended to emigratte much more from Germany or UK, the french never really let France (and that's the primary cause for the loss of New France).

 

Until the middle of the XXth century, France had a weak demography, unlike Germany. The 1950's baby boom, certainly cause by that universal and unprecedented cataclysm that was WW2 gave Europe an 'harmonized' demography, with France back in the race.

 

Now, the effects of WW2 are no more, and it seems that the former demographic disynchronization is back. With Germany & Italy now subishing the same crisis that France subished during the end of the 19th century, France experiencing a new cycle.

 

Now, with the new societal structure, new kind of economy, mass immigration, who knows what will happen? One thing is certain: the population of muslim origin has a rather low birth rate in comparison to what you can find in their countries of origin, and the birth rate of the 'white' french is increasing as well. I hardly see a 'muslim trojan horse' in France. Keep in mind that during the 1930's, France had the same proportion of immigrants among its population, mostly poles, italians, spaniards, belgians. Even if they are white and judeo-christians, it took rather a long time to assimilate them. Even the latest european immigrants wave (portuguese) still keeps strong identity signs.

 

Keep in mind that the vast majority of the muslim or black immigrants have been living in french or pseudo french world all their life long: born in France or coming from former french colonies: that means that even in Niger they learnt French at school, and they had in the village an elder who served for France during WW2 or an uncle working in France who is the pacha of the village thanks to his huge (1000 € :rolleyes: ) income. Western Africa is lto France what South America is to the US, a backyard, with people living (or subishing) remotely what happens here.

 

People drive old Dodges in central America, people drive old Peugeots in Morrocco. Americans go to Acuapulco to have fun, Parisians virtually own Casablanca's real estate because they bought all the old private mansions there.

 

Had the muslim immigration in France come from an area completely stranger to the french culture, say Saudi Arabia, then it would be a problem...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

so i don't know where tank nut gets his info but Russias population is already bigger than that, so it is for Germany.

 

 

201094[/snapback]

 

 

Check the stats, the whole point is the thier populations are drastically shrinking due to old age. Turkey will become the new super-power in the region due mainly to default because you guys aren't having enough children over thier to replace your young men and women in the workforce and in the military. Russia lost over 2 million people due to declining birth rates and early death rates between 1991 and 2000 even with the emmigration of expats from nearby neighboring nations back to mother Russia for example and will dip big-time due to AIDS and cancers due to pollution in the early Millenium years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Zakk you sound prettty rah-rah patriotic to the Untited States.

I used to be like that too, a long time ago.

But then I found that the only time this country loves a young man is when we are at war is when they need a new body to push into the meat grinder of a new war.

Call me a bitter Gen-X'er but as long as France dosen't have a problem with me why should I have one with it? As for Osama and his lot, I can see why he dosen't respect our gang-banger, hip-hop, shallow, superficial mainstram American culture but I would still give my left arm to put an ice-pick in his temple.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

of course we voted NO, it just mean we don't agry with some part of the constitution and we're waiting for another one... but that has nothing to do with what i posted.

 

the first EU crisis reaction batle groups will be ready by 2007 .

 

acording to our american friends here, all Europe by 2050 would be 50% muslim?

come on.

201344[/snapback]

That's one way of looking at it. As I understand it, a lot of people in France, Holland and Germany (to say nothing of the treacherous Rosbifs) are beginning to ask if they need or want the kind of political centralisation that the EU Constitution represents at all. And that has everything to do with the fairy tale picture of EU integration and power you are painting.

 

Ref the EU battle groups, it is arguable whether NATO would have worked had push come to shove, so I'll believe this when I actually see it.

 

Ref the last bit, I thought they meant theatthe population of France would be 50% Moslem. A bit over the top, but as i underdtand it the European Moslem birth rate, while slowing, is still a good way in advance of the non-Moslems across the board.

 

all the best

 

BillB

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check the stats, the whole point is the thier populations are drastically shrinking due to old age. Turkey will become the new super-power in the region due mainly to default because you guys aren't having enough children over thier to replace your young men and women in the workforce and in the military. Russia lost over 2 million people due to declining birth rates and early death rates between 1991 and 2000 even with the emmigration of expats from nearby neighboring nations back to mother Russia for example and will dip big-time due to AIDS and cancers due to pollution in the early Millenium years.

201392[/snapback]

 

with a population of over 450 million people, the EU , even with its minorities, will still be able to have an important people percentage in workforce and military...and what if Turkey joines in one day ?

 

as for the batle groups, my regiment has been proceding to many exercises and our goal is to be operationnal by 2006 .

 

the US wern't build in one day...so it is for the EU.

 

France will always keep its influence throughout the world.

but now the goal is to be a strong federation with our EU members.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Zakk you sound prettty rah-rah patriotic to the Untited States.

I used to be like that too, a long time ago.

But then I found that the only time this country loves a young man is when we are at war is when they need a new body to push into the meat grinder of a new war.

Call me a bitter Gen-X'er but as long as France dosen't have a problem with me why should I have one with it? As for Osama and his lot, I can see why he dosen't respect our gang-banger, hip-hop, shallow, superficial mainstram American culture but I would still give my left arm to put an ice-pick in his temple.

201393[/snapback]

 

:blink:

Sorry, I have reread my 3 posts in this thread over and over again, and I simply cant understand where you get this "rah-rah patriotic to the Unites States" from. Please enlighten me, will you? Or do you mean that if one is tired of stupid French selfconfidence, than you automatically are a dumbnut rah-rah patriot to the US? I have only mentioned USA once, that it has the highest BNP in the world, and that is a fact nobody can deny. :mellow:

 

I am not even American, but from Europe. A great many people in Europe are fed up with French selfesteem, look no further than UK, but we dont automatically bend over for everything that comes from the US of A. Heck, everyone in Europe knows that Norwegians are the best anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i had a tank in my platoon called " Narvik " , since we took part in a landing during the Norway campaign , actually taking that place, and on and on in liberating that country.

not bad for withe flag wavers ! :D

 

you told me you had nothing against France, only against it's political members,and i understand and agree on some points.

but don't insult the french nation with the white flag thing, since you should know how history realy was...have respect for those people that thought the enemy with no release, i'm sure you also had resistance and other army members that carried on the fight, you're european and have at least a good historical education right?

 

you know that the german army we had to fight in 39 wasn't the same we had to kick out in 44, especialy when fighting a bliskrieg with a WW1 army, acording that europe wouldn't go through a war again and that a rearmement course wasn't necessary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...