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About Cinaruco

  • Birthday 08/14/1986

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    Becoming a helicopter pilot for the Pinochet administration

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  1. Is "Syriatification" even a word?
  2. Isn't conflict between mostly "white" upper and middle class and mostly indigenous lower class one of the driving forces of all VZ mess? Isn't conflict between mostly "white" upper and middle class and mostly indigenous lower class one of the driving forces of all VZ mess? No, Venezuela is a mestizo country, first world (European) identity politics need not apply.
  3. LMAO I know I have been out of the game for a long time, but this is my reaction to Russiagate libfiasco. You guys actually believed Russia hacked the electoral college with the help of Drumpf. I mean, we didn't like Obama, but we were never retarded about it. There will be zero consequences from this for the dems, but man are they stupid.
  4. Yeah, had to edit. Wrong thread. Still here, survived the blackout, seems the only way out is full on regime change backed by the CIA, which is glorious news indeed. Two short points: -I think on 23F the US severely underestimated how far and fanatical the socialistic indoctrination has been in Venezuela, to the point they never expected a Venezuelan Frigate threatening to sink a ship crewed by US citizens. Seems the options now are more Tomahawkit in nature and less, diplomatic, given that Bolsonaro was at the CIA, and then met with Trump, after the Venezuelan military tear gassed the Venezuelan Brazilian Border. -The intervention will not involve a Pinochet like character to clean house, at best we are looking at someone getting puppeted as the CIA and DEA arm their cleansing squads. Venezuelan sovereignty is now over, it has been since 2004, now the US has come clear about it. Trump could still back out from this and its Maduro forever, in the military sense, but in political terms, the US is here to stay until the Monroe doctrine is taught in Venezuelan elementary schools, IMHO.
  5. We should get more, considering all the gold we are sending you guyz.
  6. Personally, don't like him. He was of the group that toppled General Perez Jimenez. He is right about amnesty and Maduro, though. Though I donĀ“t think he will take it. He will go down like Blondi in the Bunker, shot by his master, some Cuban I guess.
  7. They are full of shit. The poor people are the ones that hate Maduro the most. They actually have to eat trash and die from appendicitis.
  8. There is literally nothing wrong this this. Until the socialists take over the White House, that is.
  9. Venezuela isn't Libya, for starters isn't particularly tribal and the factions aren't that ideologically diverse. The only thing that really distinguish Maduro faction from Guaido factions is how beholden the first are to foreign actors -China, Cuba, Russia-. There won't be a bursting blood bath but a prolonged and simmering unrest. For the level of savagery you see in Mexico or Colombia you need decades of drug traffic and lawlessness and i'm telling you, Venezuelans aren't there yet. Venezuela is more violent than Mexico and Colombia, and Brazil, and Lybia, and Syria.
  10. Russia does not have the muscle to save Maduro from the US. They can protect him from a coup, but not if that coup is US backed. They already did the most important part, Maduro has all those Igla, S-300s, T-72s and BMPs to shoot out the unarmed opposition, and they can send in more if needed. Venezuela is a worthy investment.
  11. The economic crisis is just one of the reasons for a possible intervention. Its the whole migrant crisis, which is more the result of the political crisis, as it precedes the economic crisis. Thing is, Grenada did not have S-300. If taking out Maduro was a matter of sending in a SEAL Team in a helicopter with some support, then this would be over. In truth, he has an infantry division, two if you count the other one in Caracas, as his bodyguards. This has no bloodless answer that I can see. And I am praying for one.
  12. Thank you for your first-hand knowledge, and it is nice to know you managed to save most of the family. There is something that bothers me, however. In 1936's Spain, the Armed Forces, Franco included, were mainly loyal to the government even if not agreeing fully with leftist policies, until the assassination of the Opposition leader, Jose Calvo Sotelo. In Venezuela, there are rumours of the Army being a state inside the state, with its owns companies, and even drug-dealing organizations. If true, then How could be expected that a substantial part of the Army rebels against Maduro? There are hints that the morale, from the military POV, of the Bolivarian Forces is not high, also. I see no major break in the military possible. Not any of the major players. But a minor one, or several, that might involve an armory getting into the hands of civilians? That I do see happening, because it has happened almost, twice that I know of. This is my bet, a Syria like break but without Obama to save him. I can honestly see Maduro ordering Sukhois to level the city block I live in. Sad thing is I do not know if the pilots would be willing to do it or not. That drug money though.
  13. Welcome back! I recently started a thread on Venezuela. Perhaps you could contribute. You may also have received some kind of request in the blue birdie app. I never truly left! Send me up another request today for a follow back!
  14. Venezuelans have convinced themselves that the US is going to oust Maduro by any means, even by invasion. Social media is filled with experts comparing what is happening right now with what happened in Grenada and Panama, and that is wishful thinking at its best. Personally I laugh whenever I see this triumphalism, if only out of my natural nihilism. Some barrios in Venezuela are larger than Panama. This has taken me completely by surprise, not that Maduro was illegitimate or a dictator but that the US went in and backed Guaido. He would not have declared Maduro as an Usurper (yeah, I am going with that terminology) otherwise. But no matter how much Venezuelans on social media believe it, Operation Venezuelan Freedom will not happen. I like Guaido. Seems likeable enough, well schooled, nice family, his father is an exile that used to be an airline pilot, that now works as a taxi driver. The people love him, and fully back him, yet he comes from the same opposition that has actively worked to keep Maduro in power for the last decade. I am reassured by the Hawks over at DC speaking that Maduro's days are at an end, because that is the only factor that matters in the Venezuela equation. Guaido himself has little power, and his protection lies only on America's deterrence. The US seems to be gambling it all on the military, on a large portion of it, breaking from Maduro and a coup happening. Several attempts have already taken place, so this is actually a very sane and practical approach. Even if only a small portion of troops manage to secure a single base, and manage to hold it enough to secure it and arm the population, the crude ingredients for regime change are there. After all the purges and years of indoctrination, however, I believe that enough of the military will remain loyal to Maduro for a civil war scenario. Most of the firepower is located in central Venezuela, the armor division they bought from Russia, plus the Marine division they bought from China. There are tens of thousands of militia, paramilitary and narco shooters at the orders of the Regime as well, and they have two digit SAMs. What the US is doing now is setting up stockpiling centers in Colombia and Brazil for humanitarian aid, so they are setting up a showdown. My guess Guaido will ask for the humanitarian aid to enter the country, and the trucks will roll and the Guards will either gas them or not. If this happens, we will have a civil war. The military high command will have chosen Maduro, and enough of the lower ranks will join him to ensure a fight will happen in the event of any coup. Ideally Guaido should have appointed a Minister of Defense in exile to set up training of forces, and distribution of resources, in this early phase. Some people are optimistic this will end peacefully. I am not one of these. Venezuela's situation is more similar to me to that of Spain in 1936, than Chile in 1973. Even if its a short civil war Venezuela is one of the most violent countries in the world, in the middle of one of the worst humanitarian crisis in the continent. It will be a bloodbath. At least I managed to get most of my family out to the US. I am staying as long as the US embassy stays.
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