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Everything posted by glenn239
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Well, one thing seems apparent from that video - that they blasted the shit out of an Iron Dome launcher using kamikaze drones, just as claimed.
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NATO return to Cold War force structure
glenn239 replied to Martineleca's topic in Military Current Events
If any government in Canada supported reintroducing conscription they would be crushed in the next election. -
Mistral recently called for the annihilation of the Palestinian people on another thread, with practically zero reaction from posters.
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Yes, MZ, I think you are correct. If Israel was to make an unprovoked attack on Russian forces in Syria, the response from the Russians would not likely be to "fold their tents" and withdraw from Syria. I'd go even further in the same vein and say that if I punched a biker in the face in front of his entire club and then pissed on his Harley for an encore, the reaction might not be one where he buys me flowers. In terms of what the actual threat from Russia, I doubt it's to do with ingress and egress of a strike package. On that score I assume the Israelis will park their tankers over Jordan and send the strike through Iraq? Logistically, an Israeli attack on Iran is originating from bases under constant surveillance and returning to the same. The key is the timing. I think they are going to have to land dozens or even hundreds of aircraft on bases within range of Iranian drones and missiles. The Iranians might try to catch them as they return, and to do that they'll need neutral surveillance assets to get the correct timing.
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Israel is a fairly compact country, almost like just one front of the Ukraine war, except there is no overhead cover. The fighters used in the defense no doubt were being quickly serviced at a limited number of airbases, then fired back on patrol, and all of this was being watched in real time by Russian, Chinese, and Iranian assets. If the IAF hits Iran in reply, I wonder if the Iranians will want to try and hit them hard as they return to their airbases.
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US warships must stand near off the coast to provide defensive fire support to the Israelis. The problem is, US warships near to the coast are vulnerable to submarines, aircraft, and coastal defenses of all sorts.
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I think the Israeli calculation is based on the observation of Biden in Ukraine, where he has set a series of lines of what he will not do, only to reverse himself (forget what he said?) even weeks or months later. So here, seeing that Biden is weak, Bibi can reasonably calculate that a series of Israeli-Iranian exchanges can widen the war and bring in the US in a bigger way, getting Biden to drop all his lines one by one, just like in Ukraine, and some of the objectives you list that look unachievable, the Israelis could hope can be attained using US forces.
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Wiki says that a total of 500 SM-6 have been built so far, with 1,800 planned.
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One of the things the Iranians, Russians and Chinese will have been monitoring during the Iranian attack will have been the operational patterns of the Israeli defending fighters. Which bases where they using, how were they refueled and reloaded, where are the SAM systems protecting those bases, did they move to different positions afterwards? That sort of thing. I would bet many of the drones fired were actually sent on meandering courses to draw fire, to mark AD targets for missile and drone attack, just like is done by both sides in Ukraine.
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Will Western aesthetics of war mean its defeat?
glenn239 replied to lucklucky's topic in Military Current Events
I think he's talking about some sort of natural or native instinct inherent in humans to fear the apex predator, and whether these deeply rooted and evolutionary based predispositions can cause military culture, or in this case Western militaries, for whatever reason, a tendency to not only try to replicate the apex predator on the battlefield, but to place too much faith in its ability to perform in the expected dominant fashion. -
I think the Russians have about two dozen SU-35's that Iran intends to buy, the ones that Egypt cancelled.
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Lavrov had a conversation with Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Saturday. Dunno what they talked about, but a blank cheque for Israel to bomb Iran at will was probably not high on the agenda.
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Read an article that states it was 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles on the Iranian side. No statements anywhere I've seen of defending expenditures.
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What I gather so far: - The Iranians fired about 300 drones and missiles, exact types and ratios unknown. The targets of these projectiles in many cases is not known, but 2 air bases were certainly targeted and there are reports of an intelligence base in the north also targeted, (but was it hit?). - Many of the drones were no doubt fired to assist in the evaluation of the defenses rather than to hit targets. The level of intel cooperation between the Iranians and its allies is unknown, but at a minimum the Iranians will know roughly where and when each of their missiles and drones were shot down, and which were not. - Israeli and US defense forces shot down large numbers of drones and cruise missiles, many over Jordan. - Ballistic missiles did hit two Israeli airbases, apparently 5 and 4, for 9 missile hits in total. - When the Iranians attacked the US air base in Iraq, they fired not less than 13 ballistic missiles at it. Combined with the above, it suggests that some of the ballistic missiles sent towards the air bases were shot down. - The Iranians have stated that the next attack would be as much as "10 times" bigger. - The video of the attacks on one of the air bases shows 5 hits in rapid succession. Whatever the overall success of the defenses, that particular group of missiles must have gotten through with minimal or no losses. - Defensive munitions consumption appears to have been substantial, with estimates in the range of 10-15 times more cost to the defense than to the cost of the attack. (For example, the unsubstantiated report that a US missile destroyer basically emptied its magazines of SM-3 missiles during the attack). - Both the Americans and the Iranian Republican Guard have indicated success. The Americans that the Israelis shot down "99%" of attacking forces, the IRG stating that the results were better than expected. - The US policy is clear. They will defend Israel against any attack, but will not assist Israel in attacking Iran provided that Iran does not cross American red lines. - The Chinese position WRT the American position as outlined above surely must be one of approval. The Chinese and Americans also appear to share an interest in ending the Gaza war.
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That may be so, but the question now is what Bibi will do.
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War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only
glenn239 replied to bojan's topic in Military Current Events
You've insisted for years here that China is a self-focused manipulative actor that would exploit the Russians for Chinese gains while never providing military assistance to defeat Ukraine. This appears to be very, very wrong. The reports are that the Chinese military assistance to Russia in terms of intel and production and technology appears to be large, and it appears to be growing. -
Russians at UN use the term "unconditional surrender", AFAIK, for the first time. Vegas is taking bets as to which of Roman or Macron is the more stunned at the news, ‘No Region of Ukraine Spared’ by Moscow’s War on Ukraine, Senior Official Tells Security Council, Reporting of Widespread Destruction, Civilian Deaths | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases
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War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only
glenn239 replied to bojan's topic in Military Current Events
Josh needs to get to Beijing to explain to Xi that China's infusion of arms production into Russia can't be happening, because, reasons. -
NATO return to Cold War force structure
glenn239 replied to Martineleca's topic in Military Current Events
A submarine armed with standoff missiles does not need to get close to a carrier. -
Yellen gets another answer from Beijing, https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/china-tells-telecom-firms-to-phase-out-foreign-chips-in-blow-to-intel-amd-wsj/ar-BB1lvgWG?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c3c26a366b5743c682484bd3fb972448&ei=12 Chinese officials directed the country's largest telecom carriers earlier this year to phase out foreign chips that are key to their networks by 2027, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the development. The move would impact U.S. chip giants Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, according to the report. Their shares were down more than 1.5% in premarket trading.
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War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only
glenn239 replied to bojan's topic in Military Current Events
Did he say how many Poles he thought were actually in Ukraine? -
War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only
glenn239 replied to bojan's topic in Military Current Events
Huh. Hitherto the Wunderwaffen at least had the courtesy of currently being in operational existence. Does the MoD in the UK suppose that a laser is going to be able to defend itself against an AI drone swarm? -
My view is that if Gaza were run by the Americans that they'd be displaying symptoms of being a normal Middle East country within no time. That's not to say that there would not be plenty of bad apples and terrorists, but the Strip itself would normalize if under the supervision and control of a country that was willing to exercise a fiduciary duty.